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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, November 16, 2021 2:08 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/8 thru Sun 11/14

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 Weak Gales Still Forecast
Improving Jetstream Pattern Forecast


On Tuesday, November 16, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 10.0 secs from 275 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 79.5 (Barbers Pt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 7.1 ft @ 10.4 secs from 74 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 233 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 1-4 kts. Water temperature 62.1 degs, 62.4 (Topanga 103), 61.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 62.6 (Del Mar 153), 65.2 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.6 secs from 203 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 14.1 secs from 207 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.1 ft @ 14.3 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.6 secs from 201 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.7 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 8.7 ft @ 8.8 secs from 316 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 57.9 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.1 (46026), 58.1 degs (SF Bar 142), and 57.4 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/16) North and Central CA had waves at head high at top spots and a bit warbled and mushed from northwest wind over outer waters though nearly calm nearshore. Protected breaks had sets at waist high or so and mushed and a bit warbled from northwest wind though not chopped and not very rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was maybe waist high and mushed and fogged in and fairly clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and clean and somewhat lined up but soft and inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets up to head high and lined up and clean with decent form. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to head high and lined up and clean with good form coming from the south. North San Diego had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up and clean with decent form. Hawaii's North Shore was getting sets at head high and clean and lined up with decent form but looking mostly like windswell. The South Shore had some waist high sets and clean and lined up with decent form. The East Shore was getting 1 ft overhead northeast windswell and clean early with no trades blowing.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/16) Hawaii was getting fun sized northeast windswell from the integration of low and high pressure interacting north of the Islands. California was getting windswell from northwest fetch off the Pacific Northwest a day earlier. Beyond another weak gale is to form off Oregon on Wed-Thurs (11/18) perhaps producing 17 ft seas and more windswell for CA. And longer term the models are hinting at a somewhat more active pattern setting up with a gale forecast for the Western Gulf on Mon-Tues (11/23) producing 33 ft seas aimed east and another is to be developing at the same time just west of the dateline with 25 ft seas aimed southeast. There finally some hope!

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Tuesday (11/16) the jet was somewhat consolidated tracking east off Japan with winds building to 140 kts approaching the dateline then the jet split with a muddled mess east of there with winds maybe 100 kts in a few random pockets offering no support for gale development.Over the next 72 hours a variation on the same theme is forecast until maybe Thurs (11/18) when the jet is to start consolidating more over Japan with winds 130 kts building to 150 kts and approaching the dateline on Fri (11/19) starting to carve out a trough on the dateline. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to start moving into the Western Gulf on Sat (11/20) being fed by 150 kt winds offering some support for gale development and moving into the Northeast Gulf on Sun (11/21) starting to pinch off no longer supporting gale development. And another trough is to start building off the Kuril Islands Sun (11/21) pushing west to the dateline on Tues (11/23) being fed by 170 kt winds again offering decent support for gale development. And yet more wind energy is to be building over Japan. Perhaps a better pattern is to set up.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/16) northeast windswell was hitting Hawaii. And small windswell was hitting California.

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed PM (11/17) a small local gale is forecast developing just off Oregon producing 30-35 kt north winds and seas building. On Thurs AM (11/18) a small fetch of northwest winds are forecast at 35-40 kts off Oregon with seas 20 ft at 44N 134.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to start impacting Oregon with 30-35 kt northwest winds just off the coast and seas 20 ft at 42N 131W aimed southeast targeting North CA. The gale is to be moving inland after that with seas fading from 16 ft at 43N 128W aimed south. Perhaps some north angled windswell to result for North and Central CA.

North CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Fri (11/19) building to 5.9 ft @ 11-12 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (11/20) from 4.9 ft @ 10 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees moving to 305 degrees


On Sun AM (11/21) another gale is to be building over the Dateline Region producing northwest winds at 45 kts with seas 23 ft at 42N 179E aimed southeast. The gael is to track east in the evening with 40 kt west winds and seas 26 ft at 43.5N 173W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/22) fetch is to be moving into the Northwestern Gulf at 40 kts from the west with 26 ft seas at 47N 169W aimed east. In the evening the gael is to build in the Northern Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 50N 163.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (11/23) fetch is to be fading from 40 kts from the west in the Northern Gulf with seas 32 ft at 50.5N 154.5W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (11/16) northwest winds are are to be rapidly fading from 20 kts off the coast of Cape Mendocino and 10 kts nearshore early for both North and Central CA to near calm in the afternoon.
  • Thurs (11/17) low pressure is to be just off the North Coast with south winds 5 kts for Cape Mendocino early and light northwest winds for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 20-30 kts for Cape Mendocino with south winds 10-15 kts down to Pt Reyes and light northwest winds south of there. Rain for Cape Mendocino starting late evening.
  • Fri (11/18) the low is to linger over Oregon early with south winds 15-25 kts for Cape Mendocino but light northwest winds from Bodega Bay southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts from Pt Arena southward. Rain reaching south to the Golden Gate early maybe reaching to Santa Cruz late morning then fading.
  • Sat (11/19) northwest winds to building to 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10-15 kts for Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception. In the afternoon north winds building to 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts south of there.
  • Sun (11/20) north winds are forecast at 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and light from Bodega Bay southward early. Light winds everywhere in the afternoon.
  • Mon (11/21) a light northeasterly flow is forecast early for all of North and Central CA holding all day.
  • Tues (11/22) north to northeast winds are forecast at 20 kts early for North CA with light winds south of there. In the afternoon north winds to build to 25-30 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level 11,000-12,000 ft through 11/18, slowly falling to 8,500 ft on 11/20 rebuilding to 10,500 ft on 11/21 only to steadily fall again down to 7,000 ft on 11/24, then rebuilding to 12,000 ft on 11/25.


Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!


South Pacific

Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat PM (11/20) a fetch of 40-45 kt west winds is to be building over and pushing off the Kuril Islands with seas building from 28 ft at 45N 156E aimed east. Fetch is to push east on Sun AM (11/21) just off the Kuril Islands at 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 43N 160E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fall southeast at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 42.5N 161E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading Mon AM (11/22) from 35 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 40N 165E aimed east and southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 25 ft at 37.5N 172E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (11/23) fetch is to hold at 35 kts over the dateline with 24 ft seas at 36M 180W aimed southeast. The gale is to be rebuilding in the evening while lifting east-northeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 38N 172.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


La Nina Sub Surface Cool Water Volume Fading
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific beating last years volume on 10/15/21, with no Kelvin Wave induced warm waters in sight. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the Western KWGA in early December and filling 40% of the KWGA after that with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west. The high pressure bias is in control of the dateline but is to ease east some by Jan 2022. But it also seems likely cold surface waters are to hold well entrenched over the dateline through early Jan supporting bulletproof surface high pressure. No significant west anomalies seem likely to significantly impact the volume and depth of cold water under the Central Equatorial Pacific before Winter is over.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/15) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/16) east anomalies were moderate plus over the entire KWGA and reaching east to a point south of Mexico. The forecast calls for moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA centered near the dateline through then end of the model run on 11/23. West anomalies are to be poised right at the western edge of the KWGA but not pushing into it. .

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/15) A modest Active MJO signal was indicated trying to push into r the KWGA today filling 50% of it. The statistic model projects a moderate Active MJO Phase building slightly on day 5 of the model run over the KWGA holding on day 10 then fading to weak status on day 15 filling the KWGA. The dynamic model projects a far weaker Active Phase limited to the far west KWGA on day 5 of the model run then fading to neutral on day 10 and almost weakly Inactive on day 15. .
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/16) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent and is forecast tracking to the West Pacific at day 15 of the model run and exceedingly weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/15) A weak Active MJO signal (wet air) was indicated over the West Pacific today. The Active Phase (wet air) is to be track east and into Central America on 12/5. A modest Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/5 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/25. A very weak Active Phase (wet air) is to be building over the KWGA at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/15) This model depicts the Inactive Phase almost gone over the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to be gone on 11/17 but with east anomalies holding at strong or near strong status through then end of the model run on 12/13. A moderate Active Phase and west anomalies is to be poised over the Maritime Continent starting to enter the West Pacific 11/22 reaching 50% of the way into the KWGA, then slowly backtracking and with west anomalies limited to the far West KWGA at the end of the model run on 12/13.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/16 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was pushing through the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to traverse the KWGA through 11/26 with east anomalies in control over the KWGA peaking on 11/20. A weak Active Phase is forecast developing 11/20-12/28 with west anomalies trying to push through the KWGA, but with spotty coverage at best. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow tracking through the KWGA 12/24-1/29 but with west anomalies holding control of the far West KWGA to 160E. Another Active Phase is forecast 1/30 through the end of the model run on 2/13 with west anomalies filling the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered over the dateline and is to hold while slowly easing east with it's leading edge to 120W on 1/4 and stalling there beyond. A broad single contour low pressure bias is now established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E and barely in the KWGA and is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA on 12/27 reaching to 140E on 1/22 filling 30% of the KWGA and building east from there. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is still in control and there's no clear sign of it being dislodged anytime soon. La Nina is to prevail this Winter.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/16) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back at 163E. The 28 deg isotherm line was holding at 176E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 130W. Warm water is holding position. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were pushing east and now steady at 150W. All sensors are down at 140W so this is a little suspect. Cool anomalies were fading from -2 degs C at 105W down 75 meters and tracking east. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control in the east at depth but definitely less of a force than weeks and months past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/9 is less optimistic indicating no warm water east of 150W with a bulletproof bubble of cold water at -4C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface and into Ecuador but with less intensity than weeks past. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/9) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from just off Ecuador to 150W at -5 cms with shrinking peak at -20 cms at 125W with a shrinking area of -15 cms anomalies between 110W-130W. It seems that the coverage of negative anomalies is in quick decline. All positive anomalies were limited from 170E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina made a return and stronger than last year, but now appears to be in decline, at least from the subsurface water temp perspective. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 11/9 that coverage is rapidly collapsing centered at 125W with the coolest anomalies (-2.5 degs) all but gone and shrinking from the west while building east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/15) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator but weakening though still dominant along Chile and Peru then turning west thinly at the Galapagos tracking west then building in earnest from 115W to 160W and weaker west of there. Cooling nearshore along Chile and Peru was still present but weaker. A homogenous area of warm water just north of the equator was fading some from Ecuador west to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/15): Temps were warming weakly along Chile and Peru. Of more interest temps were cooling over a thin but solid stream from Ecuador out to 120W then in pockets to 135W
Hi-res Overview: (11/15) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator weakly from the Galapagos to 115W then stronger out to 160W then weaker to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A cool outflow remains in place pushing from South California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island but weaker than previous. La Nina is making a solid resurgence focused over the Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/16) Today's temps were falling hard to -1.653, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/14) Today temps were steady at -0.766 after rising to -0.685 on 11/9, and that after bottoming out at -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/16) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct. The forecast indicates temps to continue a dramatic fall from here forward dropping down to -1.70 in mid Jan 2022 then quickly pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.50 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.90 degs today, and are to fade to -0.91 degrees in Nov, then rising to -0.46 degs in Feb and neutral in April 2022. A solid return of La Nina is expected this Fall and early Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/16): The daily index was positive at +2.03. The trend has been towards positive readings with previous notable peaks were at +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was falling to +6.11 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +9.19 today after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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