BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, November 15, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (11/15) in North and Central CA surf was head high to maybe 1 ft overhead and semi lined up with decent form and clean but a little soft. Protected breaks had sets at chest to maybe shoulder high and lined up if not a bit closed out and clean but soft with decent form. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. In Ventura County waves were waist to chest high and lined up and clean though slightly warbled with rain and alot of mud in the water. Central Orange County had sets head high or so and lined up but hacked with strong northwest winds create substantial chop and rainy. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at head high and lined up and trashed from northwest winds and rain. North San Diego had sets at shoulder high and lined up if not closed out but chopped and rainy. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high and lined up and clean but a bit closed out. The South Shore had sets at knee to maybe thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and clean early. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at chest high and lined up and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (11/15) Hawaii was getting windswell originating from trades. California was getting remnant northwest windswell associated with a gale that developed off Cape Mendocino Thurs AM (11/13) producing up to 29 ft seas aimed southeast. A small fetch was developing over the Dateline Sat (11/15) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed briefly east with secondary fetch falling southeast through Mon (11/17) producing 20-22 ft seas targeting Hawaii well. A broader gale is forecast for the dateline tracking east to the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Thurs (11/20) producing 28-32 ft seas aimed east over a diffuse area aimed east. And perhaps another small gale to fall southeast from a point off Oregon Thurs (11/20) producing 34 ft seas targeting CA well. of. A steady bit of modest swell looks to continue.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (11/15) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan generally on the 40N latitude line with winds 140 kts forming a gentle trough approaching the dateline and supporting gale development then lifting slightly northeast over the dateline before falling into a small trough over the Northern Gulf being fed by 130 kt winds supporting gale formation then ridging up over Vancouver Island. A cutoff low was circulating just off Southern CA producing weather there. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to sweep east into the Northern Gulf on Tues (11/18) with winds building off Japan later in the period to 190 kts with the trough supporting some degree of gale formation. And the North Gulf trough is to fall south and pretty pinched moving over Central CA on Mon (11/17) and inland over Southern CA on Tues (11/18) producing weather there. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (11/19) the jet is to be pushing east-northeast starting over Japan consolidated reaching the East Aleutians winds 160 kts over the whole length forming a trough half way to the dateline then falling into another tight trough over the Northern Gulf supporting low pressure there. The Japan trough is to push east dragging the jet south with the trough over the Northern Gulf on Thurs (11/20) still supporting gale formation while the North Gulf trough falls south just off California turning into a full backdoor trough on Sat (11/22) off Southern CA producing weather there. By Sat (11/22) the jet is to be running east on the 35-40N latitude line with winds 160-170 kts with a pinched trough north of Hawaii supporting gale formation there. In all the jet keeps easing south though most troughs it supports are pinched.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (11/15) swell was fading in California from a gael previous just off the coast (see Local CA Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale pushed off the Kurils generating background swell tracking again towards Hawaii (see Weak Kuril Gale below).

On Fri PM (11/14) a small gale developed over the Southern Dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas building from 22 ft over a tiny area at 34.5N 169E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/15) west winds to be 45-50 kts over a small area lifting northeast and seas building from 25 ft at 39N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east-northeast with 50 kt west winds and seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 44.75N 169.75W aimed east. On Sun AM (11/16) the gael is to lift northeast fast with west winds 35-40 kts just south of the East Aleutians with the core of the low in the Bering Sea with seas fading from 27 ft up at 49.25N 165W aimed mostly northeast. Fetch gone after that. Possible small swell radiating east towards mainly the US West Coast.

On Sat PM (11/15) generic 30 kt northwest winds to be filling a good portion of the Northwest Pacific producing seas at 22 ft at 45N 175E aimed south. On Sun AM (11/16) 30-35 kts northwest winds are to be building over a broad area in the Western North Pacific focused over the dateline with 20-22 ft seas at 45N 178W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds continue at 30-35 kts with seas 20-22 ft at 43N 170E aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/17) northwest winds to hold at 30 kts with seas 20 ft at 40N 179EW aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas 20 ft at 38N 175W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii. Fetch fading from there. Northwest windswell likely impacting Hawaii on Wed (11/19).

Local CA Gale
On Wed PM (11/12) a gale was developing 300 nmiles off North CA producing 30 kts north winds and seas 18 ft at 36N 141W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (11/13) the gale was fully winding up off the CA/OR border with northwest winds 45 kts over a tiny area and seas 24 ft at 40N 131W. The gale is to fall south in the evening with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 39.75N 130W aimed southeast but up to 28 ft 6 hours earlier. On Fri AM (11/14) the gale is to move off San Francisco with 30 kts northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 38N 129.25W. The gale to fade out from there. Possible raw local swell for North and Central CA.

North CA: On Sat (11/15) swell is to be fading from 4.1 ft @ 12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

Weak Kuril Gale
Mon PM (11/10) a gale was pushing off the Kurils producing west winds at 30-35 kts with seas building. On Tues AM (11/11) the gale was easing east off the Kuril Islands with 35+ kt west winds with seas building to 23 ft at 47N 158E aimed east. In the evening the gale lifted north with 30-35 kt west winds off the North Kurils and seas 24 ft at 47.5N 161E aimed east. On Wed AM (11/12) west winds faded from 30 kts off Kamchatka with seas 21 ft at 48.75N 164.75E aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Low odds of background swell arriving on Sun (11/16) building to 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/17) from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (11/13) a new gale was building over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below). Otherwise no meaningful southern hemi swell was our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Central South Pacific Gale
A small gale developed over the Central South Pacific on Thurs AM (11/13) with 40 kts south winds and seas building from 20 ft at 46S 139.5W aimed north. In the evening south winds were 40 kts lifting doe north with seas 27 ft seas at 43S 139.5W aimed due north. The gale was fading Fri AM (11/14) with 35 kts south winds and 25 ft seas at 38.5S 140 W aimed north. Maybe some background swell to result for Southern CA.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/19) building to 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell peaks on Thurs (11/20) at 1.0 ft @ 14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell fades on Fri (11/21) from 1.1 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broad fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds to develop off the Kurils in Tues AM (11/18) with seas 26 ft at 46N 158.5E aimed southeast and a front southeast of it producing 21 ft seas at 41N 170E. In the evening west winds to hold at 30-35 kts streaming east off the North Kuril Islands with seas 26 ft at 46N 164E with a front and 29 ft seas southeast of it at 41N 175.5E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/19) west winds to be fading at 30+ kts well off the Kurils and seas fading from 24 ft at 43N 165E with the front over the dateline generating southwest winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 40.75N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening the front is to push east with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 32 ft at 41.25N 178.5W aimed east. In the evening the front is to push east with 30 kt northwest winds over the dateline and 45 kt southwest winds in the Western Gulf and seas 28 ft at 47.5N 175E and 33 ft at 42.5N 170W aimed east. On Thurs AM (11/20) the fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts in the Northwest Gulf and the front fading from 40 kts with seas 26-28 ft just east of the dateline at 47M 175W and 28 ft at 43N 160W associated with the fading front. In all a broad area of 24+ ft seas is to be filling the Northwestern Gulf. Fetch dissipating after that. Possible northwest swell for Hawaii and modest northwest swell for the US West Coast by the weekend (11/22) and beyond.

And on Wed AM (11/19) a new gale is to be developing 450 nmiles off Vancouver Island producing northwest winds at 30-35 starting to get traction and generating seas of 26 ft at 45N 147.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gael is to build with 45 kts northwest winds still off Vancouver Island with seas 30 ft at 46N 141W aimed southeast. Fetch is to fall southeast Thurs AM (11/20) at 45 kts off North Oregon with seas 29 ft at 44N 134W. Fetch fading while falling southeast in the afternoon off Cape Mendocino at 35 kts with 23-24 ft seas at 40N 132W. On Fri AM (11/21) northwest winds to be 30 kts 300 nmiles off San Francisco with seas 20 ft at 36N 130W aimed southeast. In the evening the fetch is to be off Pt Conception at 30 kts with seas 20 ft at 33N 129W targeting Southern CA well. Weather and raw local swell is possible for all of California down into Southern CA.

On Sat (11/22) a storm is forecast developing just west of the South Dateline with 60 kt west winds and seas building from 38 ft at 44.25N 170.5E aimed east. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere -- Is the Change Coming?
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/14) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/15) Today moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA to 170W. Moderate east anomalies were east of the dateline. The forecast indicates west anomalies holding at 150E till 11/26 then collapsing with east anomalies fill most of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/31. East anomalies are to be weak over the dateline though building to moderate strength there 11/23-11/27 collapsing to weak status are the through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (11/14) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 171E due to slackening of east anomalies and fading of the Inactive Phase of the MJO previously there. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 175W to 177W. The 24 degree isotherm was easing east moving from 130W to 120W. Warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface over most of the equatorial Pacific. And cold anomalies were steady over a thin area at depth at -1 at 140W with warming water at the thermocline holding steady at 165W. In all cool waters are back but are fading now due to fading of east anomalies and a recent Inactive Phase of the MJO. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/9 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deeper ocean at the thermocline (150 meters) east of 165W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 170W (previously 150W). -10 cms anomalies were all but gone and quickly fading present in one last pocket at 140W. The entire East Equatorial Pacific was in a cool pattern again, but it seems we're past the worst of it as it warms, and even at that it was not too bad. Heights were weakly above normal from 170E and points west of there. The cool pool is rebuilding over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/9) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 145W to Ecuador. Warm anomalies were west of 178E (previously 150W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/14) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 165E with embedded cooler pockets evenly spread across that area if not building some. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/14): Temps were cooling from the Galapagos to 125W, likely the result of the last lingering remnants of an Inactive MJO exiting the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/15) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -1.102 and have been in this range since 11/6. Previously temps were -0.7 10/24-11/1 and previously steady at -1.00 (10/13-10/20) then had been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/15) Today's temps were steady at -1.198 down from -0.973 (11/5) after falling to -1.087 (10/30) and had been hovering in this range since 9/15 . Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.7 (week of 11/5) Previously temps were -0.6 (weeks of 10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.46 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.63 (JAS), -0.48 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (11/15) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies just posted and though they were forecast to fall hard to -0.95 briefly mid-Nov, that has now disappeared. Instead now temps are forecast holding at -0.70 now through mid-Dec then rising to technically neutral early Jan, -0.30 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in early Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps holding at -0.70 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in early Jan then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.633 in OND (previous model run -0.623), then rising to -0.539 in DJF and 0.026 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.662 (-0.710 previous run) OND then rising to +0.443 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.602 NDJ (-0.526 previous run) rising to -0.019 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/15) the Daily Index was positive at +6.42 and has been generally falling since 11/8 but mostly positive the past month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +13.81 but had been rising steadily from +4.20 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +7.50 and on the high side of ENSO neutral rising steadily from +3.70 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady at -2.40 Oct, -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table