Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 13.4 secs from 290 degrees. Water temp 79.9 (Barbers Pt), 78.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.6 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 7.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 13.2 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 13.4 secs from 318 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 7.5 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 5.8 ft @ 6.3 secs from 304 degrees. Wind northwest at 21-27 kts. Water temperature 56.7 degs, 57.7 (Harvest 071), 59.0 (Topanga 103), 61.0 (Long Beach 215), 60.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.5 (Del Mar 153), 62.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.8 ft @ 13.0 secs from 285 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.0 ft @ 10.3 secs from 266 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.2 secs from 229 degrees. At Green Beach (271) buoy was down. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 221 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.0 secs from 223 degrees. Water temperature was 61.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 15.7 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 11.3 ft @ 14.9 secs from 297 degrees. Wind east 4-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and N 3-4 kt (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE at 6 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.0 (San Francisco 46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), 55.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.2 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 54.3 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/12) in North and Central CA waves were 15 ft on the sets with clean surface conditions and lined up but pretty warbled and raw early. Protected breaks had sets at 2 ft overhead and lined up and closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was 1-2 ft overhead high and clean and lined up with decent form but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up with modest form and clean on the surface but somewhat warbled. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined with good form and clean early with no wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high and lined up but very soft and ill formed with a fair amount of heavy texture on it early. North San Diego had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and very clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with decent form but pretty warbled and not well controlled with alot of warble in the water. The South Shore was flat to knee high and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high plus and heavily chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/12) swell was hitting Hawaii and California from a stronger system that developed west of the dateline Fri (11/8) with 28 ft seas pushing over the dateline Sat (11/9) with 27 ft seas then moving to the Northwestern Gulf Sun (11/10) while building in size with seas 29-30 ft aimed well southeast holding at 29 ft off Oregon on Mon (11/11) before dissipating. Larger swell is starting to hit California. And yet another developed off Japan Sun (11/10) with 28 ft seas aimed east moving over the dateline Mon (11/11) with 33-35 ft seas over a small area then tracking east into the Gulf Tues-Wed (11/13) with seas fading from 29 ft down to 24-25 ft a bit off the Pacific Northwest. More swell is inbound for Hawaii and California. but after that a weaker pattern is forecast. A gale is forecast for Northeast Gulf on Sun (11/17) with 25 ft seas aimed southeast. And maybe another behind that on Tues (11/19) in the same location. But the MJO is to turn Inactive which should reduce the possibility for storm development some.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/12) the jetstream was fragmented in the west and weak but then consolidated over the Northwestern Gulf and points east of there forming a solid trough in the Northeast Gulf of Alaska being fed by 150 kt winds offering good support for gale formation before pushing inland over Oregon. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to fall southeast down the coast of the Pacific Northwest into Thurs (11/14) supporting mainly weather production with a backdoor trough forecast pushing down into and over Central California on Fri (11/15) resulting in possible weather there. But back to the west on Fri (11/15) the jet is to be a mess off Japan finally consolidating over the Northwestern Gulf but ridging hard north up to the coast of Alaska with winds 160 kts before falling hard south into the aforementioned trough only setting up high pressure over the eastern half of the Pacific. Beyond 72 hours the ridge is to thankfully fade on Sun (11/17) with the jet starting consolidate in the west and with 120-130 kts winds running east on the 45N latitude line from the dateline into Washington State. By Mon (11/18) the jet is to be energized with 150-160 kt winds over it's length from Japan to the Gulf but a large ridge is to push it up into the Bering Sea west of the dateline, then falling hard south over the Northwestern Gulf forming a trough there supportive of gale development with another backdoor trough forecast falling down into North CA. That pattern is to only amplify on Tues (11/19) with 160-170 kt winds in a huge strong ridge pushing up north of the Bering Sea then falling hard south into a pinched trough in the Central Gulf offering some support for gale formation then ridging again northeast and moving inland over British Columbia. And quirky pattern is to be setting up.

Surface Analysis
On Tues (11/12) swell from the 3rd gale in a series was hitting Hawaii and California (see 3rd Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours yet another is to be right behind (see 4th Gale below). After that things settle down.

3rd Gulf Gale - Swell #1
On Fri AM (11/8) a gale developed west of the dateline with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 44.75N 172.75E aimed east and southeast. In the evening northwest winds are down to 40 kts over a small area over the dateline with seas 27 ft at 43.75N 180W aimed southeast. Fetch regrouped Sat AM (11/9) in the far Western Gulf at 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 45N 168.75W aimed east. Fetch tracked east in the evening in the Northwestern Gulf at 35-40 kts over a solid area with seas 27 ft at 46N 160W aimed east. Fetch was building in coverage Sun AM (11/10) in the Northwest Gulf at 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 48N 153W aimed southeast. Fetch to start falling southeast in the evening at 35-40 kts aimed southeast filling a good portion of the Gulf with seas 30 ft at 47.5N 144W aimed southeast targeting mainly the US West Coast. Fetch continues falling southeast off the OR-CA border Mon AM (11/11) fading in coverage from 35-40 kts with seas fading from 32 ft at 48N 140W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading while impacting Oregon from 30 kts with seas fading from 27 ft seas at 46.5N 132.5W off OR. Something to monitor.

North CA: Expect swell arrival mid-day Tues (11/12) building to 9.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (14 ft) mid-day and pretty raw and shadowed relative to the SF Bay Area. Swell fading Wed (11/13) from 7.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (10.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300-310 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell to peak Wed AM (11/13) at 3.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.5 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell fading Thurs AM (11/14) from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 305-315 degrees

4th Gulf Gale
On Sat AM (11/9) another gale developed off North Japan with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale was approaching the dateline with 45-50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 29 ft at 40.25N 164.25E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/10) the gale was approaching the dateline with 40 kts northwest winds over a modest sized area and seas 27 ft at 39.5N 171E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well from a reasonably westerly angle. In the evening the gale built with 45-50 kt northwest winds on the dateline and seas 26 ft at 40.5N 179.75E still aimed southeast targeting Hawaii. Fetch held Mon AM (11/11) at 45 kts from the west just east of the dateline with seas 35 ft at 43.5N 176W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii and now the US West Coast well. The gale tracked east in the evening with northwest and west winds 35-40 kts and seas 30 ft at 42N 166W aimed east. On Tues AM (11/12) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 27 ft at 42.5N 159W aimed east and southeast. Fetch moved east in the evening off Oregon and North CA at 30-35 kts from the northwest over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 42.5N 150W aimed east. On Wed AM (11/13) the gale is to rebuild some with northwest winds 35 kts off Oregon and North CA with seas 25 ft at 42.5N 141W aimed southeast. Fetch is to fade off the Pacific Northwest in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 45N 134W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/13) building to 4.8 ft @ 14-15 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs AM (11/14) from 4.4 ft @ 14 secs early (6.0 ft). Dribbles Fri (11/15) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/14) building to 9.8 ft @ 13-14 secs later (13.0 ft). Swell holding Fri AM (11/15) at 9.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (13.0 ft) then fading in the afternoon. Dribbles on Sat (11/16) fading from 7.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292-296 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri AM (11/15) early at 3.6 ft @ 16 secs (5.5 ft) at exposed breaks holding decently through the day. Swell fading Sat (11/16) from 4.4 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles Sun AM (11/17) fading from 2.0 ft @ 11 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296-302 degrees.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (11/13) low pressure is to be circulating just off Oregon and North CA with south winds 25-35 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate with northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the front dissolves with southwest winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. No windswell developing, just chop. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino early pushing south to Santa Cruz in the afternoon. Snow for Tahoe in the afternoon and evening.
Thurs AM (11/14) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds 5 kts early for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino through the day maybe reaching south to Bodega Bay later. No snow forecast.
Fri AM (11/15) high pressure returns with northwest winds 20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell developing. Scattered showers for North and Central CA through the day. Snow for the Sierra through the day.
Sat AM (11/16) high pressure holds with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to fade from 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Local short period windswell holding. Clearing take hold with no precipitation forecast.
Sun AM (11/17) high pressure fades with northwest wind 10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a high pressure front pushes down North CA with northwest winds 15-15 kts early for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there and 15 kts near Pt Conception. Rain for Cape Mendocino through the day.
Mon AM (11/18) northwest winds take hold at 20 kts for North and Central CA early. Winds build at 20-25 kts in the afternoon. Windswell rebuilding. Showers for Cape Mendocino early and fading.
Tues AM (11/19) northwest winds are to be 15 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 10, 12, 5, and 1.5 inches all on late Thurs (11/14) into Fri (11/15).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level falling to 6,500 ft late later Wed (11/13) falling steadily to 3,000 ft late on Fri (11/15). Freeze level rebuilding to 8,000 ft 12/17 before falling again to 1.500 ft late on 12/18. A taste of Winter! Then things warm up with freeze level 12,000 ft 11/20 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest are occurring and no swell is in the water tracking towards Hawaii or the US West Coast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf on Sun AM (11/17) with 30-35 kts northwest winds mostly impacting the Coast of Canada with 20-22 ft seas at 54M 145W aimed southeast and totally east of the North CA swell window but with 20 ft seas south to 47N 140W and barely in the window at 311 degrees. Fetch fading from there. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting. except from Cape Mendocino northward.

Theoretically another stronger gale is forecast developing in the Central Gulf on Tues AM (11/19) with 40 kt north winds and seas 29-30 ft at 45N 148W targeting Hawaii well initially. In the evening northwest winds build to 45 kts with seas 33 ft at 43.25N 141.25W targeting the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

La Nina Tries to Get Traction
Models Suggest a Weak Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/11) Water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/12) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO setting up there. The forecast suggests east anomalies to build filling the KWGA at moderate strength by 11/15 reaching strong status 11/25 and holding through the end of the model run on 11/28. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is arriving.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/11) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive MJO holding over the KWGA on days 5 through 10 of the model run fading some on day 15 while tracking east. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but the Inactive MJO holding position over the far West KWGA. .
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/12) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak over far East Africa. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the East Indian Ocean over the next 2 weeks and split between very weak and moderate. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the Central Indian Ocean and modest.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/12) This model depicts a very weak Active MJO (wet air) moving east and east of the KWGA on 12/7 with an Inactive signal (dry air) setting up behind controlling the KWGA 12/7 through the end of the model run on 12/22.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/11) Today east anomalies were in control of the KWGA at modest strength with no MJO contours indicated. The forecast indicates the east anomalies building steadily with the Inactive Phase building 11/13-12/7 with strong east anomalies filling the KWGA during that window, then fading but still holding on the dateline at the end of the model run on 12/9. The Active Phase is to follow with west anomalies preceding it starting to push into the West KWGA 12/4 and building through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/12) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase was exiting the KWGA to the east with a solid Inactive Phase building in the west. The Inactive Phase is to fill the KWGA today through 12/7 with east anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to follow 11/26-1/7/25 with west anomalies filling the KWGA during that window. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 1/5 through the end of the model run on 2/7/25 but with scattered weak west anomalies holding and no east anomalies projected. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour weakly developed 10/20-10/26 but is gone now. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 11/15 with 1 contour over a thin area expanding slightly into 12/28, then contracting and thin in coverage at the end of the model run. The model suggests a weak La Nina pattern developing. but, If it's just starting to develop now in mid-Nov, it likely is not going to do much.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/12) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was reaching east to 171E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but shallow in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1-2 degs in the far West Pacific and +1-2 degrees in the far East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2.0 degs were centered subsurface in the the far East Pacific and way smaller than weeks past reaching to the surface between 120W to 145W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 clarifies the situation more indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 165W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline. But, the density and volume of that cold water was significantly less than days and weeks past all isolated east of the dateline and mainly east of 140W. The cool pool appears isolated and has not path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 175W with -10 cms in 1 pocket stretched between the Galapagos and 135W. No -15 cm anomalies were indicated. It appears the cool pool is holding steady or weakening slightly. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/4) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is shrinking extending west to 140W (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) but with no markedly cold center and if anything the core is less pronounced than even a week ago. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The Subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool devolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/11) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to almost the dateline and reasonably uniform in density over that area but not very strong. The current pulse of cooling surface waters are steady. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/11): A thin stream of cooling waters were building over the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W. It seems the current Active Phase of the MJO is repressing development of cold upwelling on the equator.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/12) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are steady at -0.739, down 11/4-5 as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), then rebuilt before that in the -1.245 range, falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/12) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.711 after rising to -0.601 (11/4), after being steady near -1.0 degs since falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 week of 10/30. Previously temps were -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.28 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.45 mid-Oct. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (11/12) - Temps to fall to -0.75 Nov, peaking down hard by Dec into Jan at -1.30 degs before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -1.25 degs in Dec rising to -1.1 degs in Jan. None of this is believable. Regardless we are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 18, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.470 degs today and is the 5th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.533 in Nov (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to -0.091 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.597 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.533 in Jan. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/12) the Daily Index was positive at 14.50 today, and postive the last 3 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at 1.26 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at 4.15 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.