Saturday, November 12, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 17.1 secs from 216 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.7 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 9.3 secs from 18 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 5.0 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 6.0 secs from 258 degrees. Wind north at 00 kts. Water temperature 60.4 degs, 60.1 (Topanga 103), 61.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 62.6 (Del Mar 153), 64.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.1 secs from 300 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 6.2 secs from 264 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 10.6 secs from 203 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 9.9 secs from 237 degrees. Water temperate was 61.9 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 10.1 secs from 300 degrees. Wind north at 12-16 kts. Water temp 57.4 (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.0 (46026), 54.7 (SF Bar 142), 54.5 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 55.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (11/12) North and Central CA was flat and lightly chopped. Protected breaks were flat and heavily textured. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean. Central Orange County had sets at maybe thigh high and breaking just off the beach and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a few thigh high peaks and super clean and very weak. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and lined up and clean with semi decent form and soft. Hawaii's North Shore had northeast windswell sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and super raw and warbled. The South Shore was waist high on the sets and super clean and weak. The East Shore was getting east windswell at head high or so and chopped from solid northeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (11/12) California was getting no swell of interest. Hawaii was seeing northerly windswell wrapping into exposed north facing breaks and some background southern hemi swell on south facing breaks. A storm developed on the dateline tracking east Wed-Thurs (11/10) producing up to 41 ft seas aimed east somewhat at the Hawaiian Islands and the US West Coast and was fading Sat AM (11/12) while tracking over the Central Gulf of Alaska with seas 26 ft and dropping. Small swell is pushing towards Hawaii and the US West Coast. Another gale was right behind it tracking east over the dateline Sat-Sun (11/13) with up to 22 ft seas not offering much but is forecast to redeveloping in the Gulf Mon-Tues (11/15) with 25-27 ft seas falling southeast and targeting Hawaii directly. And yet another gale is forecast developing west of the dateline Thurs-Fri (11/18) producing 28 ft seas aimed east abut not making it over the dateline. So the pattern is improving some, but nothing great.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (11/12) the jetstream was split pushing east off Japan but then consolidated over the dateline with winds building to 150 kts in one pocket forming a trough offering some support for gale development before splitting again well north of Hawaii and vaporizing. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to track east into the Northwestern Gulf on Sun (11/13) and tracking east over the Western Gulf Mon AM (11/14) while deepening with winds to 140 kts offering good support for gale development through Tues (11/15) before pinching off. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (11/16) the jet is to be pushing solidly off Japan with winds 140 kts then splitting heavily as it reaches the dateline with the northern branch running due north up into the North Bering Sea with a fragmented mess of a jet east of there and if anything, a ridge building over and off the US West Coast likely supporting high pressure. But by Sat (11/19) then jet is to be consolidated pushing off Japan with winds 120-130 kts reaching over the dateline with a broad trough starting to develop just west of the dateline. Possibly a better pattern to take shape beyond.
On Saturday (11/12) no swell was impacting California or Hawaii. But swell from a gale previously over the dateline was tracking east towards Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale started developing over the far West Pacific tracking east and is forecast to building in the Gulf (see Possible Gulf Gale below).
A storm started developing just west of the dateline on Wed AM (11/9) starting to produce northwest winds at 45-50 kts and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening a decent fetch of 45-55 kt west and northwest winds were building with seas building from 36 ft at 44.5N 175E aimed southeast. Fetch continued while moving east straddling the dateline Thurs AM (11/10) at 50 kts with seas 41 ft at 47.25N 178.5E aimed east-southeast. In the evening west winds to be 40-45 kts just east of the dateline and south of the Aleutians with seas 38 ft at 48.25N 171.75W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/11) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts s over the Western Gulf with seas fading from 36 ft at 49.5N 168.75W. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the west in the Northern Gulf with seas from previous fetch fading from 33 ft at 50.75N 159W. On Sat AM (11/12) the gale is to be gone and seas fading from 26 ft at 51.5N 152.25W. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (11/13) building to 4.4 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (7.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (11/14) from 3.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (11/15) fading from 2.6 ft @ 11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (11/14) building to 3.8 ft @ 16 secs (6.0 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading on Tues (11/15) from 3.6 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (11/16) fading from 2.4 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 304 degrees
Possible Gulf Gale
Starting Fri PM (11/11) another gale started building while pushing southeast off Kamchatka with northwest winds at 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 48N 169E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (11/12) 30-35 kt northwest winds were pushing southeast with seas 22 ft at 47.5N 171E aimed southeast and unimpressive. In the evening 30 kt west winds to be approaching the dateline with seas 21 ft at 48.5N 177E. On Sun AM (11/13) the gale is to start redeveloping over the far Western Gulf of Alaska with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 21 ft at 42.5N 175W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be lifting northeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas 23 ft at 43.5N 165W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/14) fetch is to be rebuilding over the Western Gulf at 40-45 kts with seas 25 ft at 47N 159W aimed southeast. The gale is to be falling south some in the evening with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 45.5N 159W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (11/15) the gale is to be fading over the Western Gulf with 35 kts north winds over a decent sized area and 25 ft seas at 42.5N 159W aimed south-southeast. The gale is to be fading in the evening with north winds 35 kts 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas 25 ft at 40N 159W. On Wed AM (11/16) the gael is to fall south and fade with 30 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 23 ft at 36N 155W. Something to monitor.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Sun AM (11/13) high pressure tries to build of the US West Coast with north winds 10-15 kts for North CA early and northwest winds 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast. Light snow for the Central Sierra early quickly fading.
- Mon AM (11/14) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Tues AM (11/15) north to northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and Central CA early. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA.
- Wed AM (11/16) north winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA and Central CA. Light north to northeast winds are forecast in the afternoon for North CA and northwest at 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Thurs AM (11/17) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. Winds northwest at 10 kts in the afternoon for North and Central CA.
- Fri AM (11/18) high pressure takes control with northwest winds 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early building to 20 kts solid in the afternoon.
- Sat AM (11/19) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10 kts from Bodega Bay southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 1, 1, 0, and 0 inches all on the night of Sat (11/12).
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to fall to 2,000 ft on Sun PM (11/13) then settling up at 6.500 ft beyond before rising to about 11,000 ft 11/16-17 then down to 3.000 ft 11/20 before rising again.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing fetch has occurred and no swell is in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours starting Tues AM (11/15) a tropical gale is to be developing just west of the Southern Dateline tracking north fast while building and by Tues PM (11/15) northwest winds are forecast at 40-45 kts with seas 28 ft at 45N 172.5E aimed southeast. with 40 kt south winds while another is just southeast of Kamchatka with 45 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 30N 170E and 28 ft seas at 47.5N 157E aimed east. On Wed AM (11/16) the extratropical storm is to be impacting the Central Aleutians with 50 kt northwest winds and seas Both gales are to lift northeast in the evening with the Kuril Gale fading from 35 kts and the other at 45 kts from the west over a tiny area with seas 30 ft at 50N 178E aimed southeast. The system is to be in the Bering Sea after that. Low odds of any swell resulting giving it's fast northerly track.
Another semi-tropical system is to develop off Japan Wed PM (11/16) producing 45-50 kt west winds with seas building 30 ft over a tiny area aimed eat at 39N 160E and a long ways way from anywhere. On Thurs AM (11/17) west winds are to be 40-45 kts tracking east with 31 ft seas at 40N 165.25E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 41.25N 170.25E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/18) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts from the west with seas 25 ft at 40.5N 175E aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
Potentially more fetch is to redevelop on Sat (11/19) on the dateline blowing from the west at 45 kts associated with remnants of the above fetch. This is a very long way from happening.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Upwelling Phase Still Underway
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/12) Light east anomalies were covering the KWGA today except strong over the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls the stronger east anomalies on the dateline retrograding west filling the KWGA starting 11/15 and holding through the end of the forecast period on 11/19. The 2 week GFS model suggest moderate east anomalies build over the KWGA today and and holding in pulses through 11/23, then getting significantly weaker.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/11) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral pattern holding on days 5 and 10 then turning modestly Active on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests a fairly strong Active signal over the KWGA on days 10 and 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/12) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over Africa today and is slowly track east to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and modest. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east through the West Pacific starting on day 10 and at moderate strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/12) The Active Phase (wet air) was starting to push east over the KWGA and is forecast to slowly tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific and into Ecuador on 12/17. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/7 filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/22.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/11) A weak Inactive signal was developing over the far West KWGA today but with weak west anomalies holding over the western half of the KWAG to 150E. modest to moderate east anomalies were east of there. The forecast calls for more of the same till Dec 2 then the east anomalies start to vaporize and are to be barely present just west of the dateline at the end of the model run on 12/9. Neutral anomalies are to be starting to take over the KWGA. A significant change is setting up over the far West Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/12) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today neutral to weak west anomalies were limited to the area west of 160E with east anomalies east of there. This pattern is to generally hold with the dividing line easing west to 150E from 11/14-11/22. Then a big change sets up 11/25 with east anomalies disappearing from the KWGA completely and never to return through the end of the model run on 2/9. The MJO signal is weak and undefined and is to remain that way. Coverage of weak westerly anomalies are to be slowly increasing and solidifying over the entirety of the KWGA with east anomalies relegated east of the dateline by early Dec and also then weakly building over the Maritime Continent starting 12/14. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to collapse on 12/14 with the primary contour moving east and out of the KWGA on Jan 27. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 11/15 reaching east to 160E at the end of the model run on 2/9. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight and suggests the demise of La Nina is starting to occur.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/12) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 174E to 178E. The 26 degree isotherm was easing east from 158W to 147W. The 24 deg isotherm backtracked from 118W to 120W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 140W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 120W and filling the area from 140W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W with it's core at 125W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to the dateline. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a core of -15 cm anomalies between 110-140W and -10 cm anomalies holding from 95W to 145W. A previous core of -20 cms positioned between 120W-132W were gone. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 155W to Ecuador with a cold core at 130W and stable. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/11) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 25S. A coldest stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator. But the broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 25S was losing intensity quickly and steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/11): A broad area of steady warming was indicated from South Chile up to Ecuador and extending west the whole way across the equatorial Pacific. Imbedded in that was a thin stream of mixed warming and cooling water extending west from Ecuador to 140W with the warming having the upper hard. A significant warming trend was occurring just south of the equator. The trend was finally headed in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (11/11) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 25S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters are in steep decline today everywhere but directly over the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/12) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were steady at -1.935 after falling to to -2.177 (11/8) and generally falling to the following points -1.850 (10/20), -1.498 (9/21) and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps rising at -1.542 degs after toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/12) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were steady at -0.939 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and down at -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were steady at -1.090 after falling to -1.128 degs on 11/3 after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/12) - Temps are to be falling to -1.05 degs in early Dec then starting a fairly steady rise hitting -0.70 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the 1st week of Feb 2023 and up to +0.75 degs in July and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 the 1st week of Dec and then are to start pushing up to -0.65 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the last week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.55 degs in July. All this is a significant upgrade, if it holds for a few runs. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/12) the Daily Index was falling at +4.51 after bumpng up some the previous 2 days but then being negative for 5 days prior dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +10.73 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at +13.81 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table