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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, November 10, 2022 1:15 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.2 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/7 thru Sun 11/13

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Dateline Gale Developing
Gulf Gale to Follow - More Behind That Too


Thursday, November 10, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 1.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 8.3 secs from 170 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 10.4 secs from 19 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 10.4 secs from 192 degrees. Wind northwest at 12-14 kts. Water temperature 60.8 degs, 59.9 (Topanga 103), 60.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.5 (Del Mar 153), 63.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.2 ft @ 9.5 secs from 304 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 9.4 secs from 255 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 12.1 secs from 226 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 12.4 secs from 270 degrees. Water temperate was 64.4 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 10.1 secs from 315 degrees. Wind east at 4-6 kts. Water temp 53.2 (Bodega Bay 46013), 59.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (46026), 55.2 (SF Bar 142), 54.5 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 58.3 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Thursday (11/10) North and Central CA was remnant north windswell at maybe head high and clean and lined up but weak. At least the wind and warble was gone. Protected breaks were chest high and lined up and clean but weak. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high and warbled from high tide and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and super clean and lined up with good form but weak. Central Orange County had sets at thigh high and breaking just off the beach and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a few waist to near chest high peaks and clean and lined up but very weak. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean with good form but soft. Hawaii's North Shore had a few stray waist high northeast windswell sets and pretty textured if not warbled early. The South Shore had a few stray thigh high windswell sets and clean and weak. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and heavily chopped from northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (11/10) exposed breaks in California were getting residual windswell from a gale that developed in the Northeastern Gulf falling southeast to a point off North CA Fri-Tues (11/8) producing up to 26 ft seas close to the coast. Of slightly more interest is a storm that was developing on the dateline Wed-Thurs (11/10) producing up to 41 ft seas aimed east somewhat at the Hawaiian Islands and the US West Coast then fading Sat AM (11/12) with seas 26 ft while tracking over the Central Gulf of Alaska. Something to monitor. Another gale is to be right behind it tracking east over the dateline Sat-Sun (11/13) with up to 25 ft seas then redeveloping in the Gulf Mon-Tues (11/15) with 30 ft seas falling southeast and targeting Hawaii directly. And yet another gale is forecast behind that lifting northeast over the dateline Mon-Wed (11/16) producing 33 ft seas aimed east. And maybe another is to be behind that on Thurs (11/17) Fall is starting.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Thursday (11/10) the jetstream was weakly consolidated pushing east-northeast off Japan at 120 kts in pockets then consolidating on the dateline forming a trough being fed by 140 kts winds offering decent support for gale development. East of there the jet was falling into another steep and mostly pinched trough over the Northern Gulf offering nothing then tracking northeast and moving inland over Central Canada. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to track east and lose identify over the Northwestern Gulf on late Fri (11/11) offering nothing. But the jet is to continue pushing off Japan on Sat (11/12) but splitting just off the coast there only to reconsolidate over the dateline with winds 130 kts forming a new trough offering decent support for gale development and tracking east over the Western Gulf on Mon AM (11/14) while deepening with winds to 140 kts offering good support for gale development through Tues (11/15) before pinching off. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (11/16) the jet is to be pushing solidly off Japan with winds 140 kts then splitting heavily as it reaches the dateline wit the northern branch running due north up into the North Bering Sea with a fragmented mess of a jet east of there and if anything, a ridge building over and off the US West Coast likely supporting high pressure. No change through Thurs (11/17). Then consolidated jet pushing off Japan is to become the main focus.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (11/10) the last dribbles of swell associated with a gale that had tracked south over the Northeastern Gulf was fading in California (see Northeastern Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours the focus is to be on a gale developing over the dateline (See Dateline Gale below).

But starting Fri PM (11/11) another gale is to start building while pushing southeast off Kamchatka with northwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 48N 168E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (11/12) 35 kt northwest winds to be pushing southeast with seas 25 ft at 47.5N 170E aimed southeast. In the evening 30-35 kt west winds to be approaching the dateline with seas 25 ft at 48.25N 177.5E. On Sun AM (11/13) the gale is to rebuild with 30-35 kts northwest winds over a small area and seas 25 ft at 42.5N 175W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be lifting northeast with 40 kts northwest winds over a small area and seas 25-26 ft at 43.5N 164W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/14) fetch is to be rebuilding over the Western Gulf at 40 kts with seas 24 ft at 42.25N 163.5W aimed southeast. The gale is to be falling south in the evening with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 43.5N 163W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (11/15) the gael is to be fading over the Western Gulf with 35 kts northwest winds over a decent sized area and 28 ft seas at 40.5N 160W aimed south-southeast. The gale to dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 38N 155W or just 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii. Something to monitor.


Northeast Gulf Gale
A small fetch developed in the Northern Gulf Fri AM (11/4) producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building. In the evening northwest winds built in coverage at 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 54.75N 143.25W aimed southeast and shadowed relative to NCal. Fetch rebuilt in coverage and positioned more to the west on Sat AM (11/5) at 35-40 kts with 21 ft seas at 53N 144W aimed southeast and still shadowed relative to North CA (322 degs). In the evening fetch was falling south at 35 kts aimed southeast with seas 23 ft at 50N 142W aimed southeast and still shadowed (322 degs) relative to North CA. On Sun AM (11/6) north winds were 30-35 kts off Washington with seas 24 ft at 48.5N 142W aimed south and in the NCal swell window (314 degs). Fetch is to consolidate some in the evening at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 44N 136W aimed southeast and unshadowed at 307 degs relative to NCal. Fetch fading Mon AM (11/7) off the Pacific Northwest at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 41.25N 131.5W aimed southeast (301 degs NCal). In the evening the gale is to be fading off North CA from 30 kts from the north with seas fading from 20 ft at 40.75N 136W or just off Cape Mendocino (291 degs NCal). On Tues AM 911/8) 30 kt north winds to continue falling south well off Central CA with 19 ft seas at 42N 136W aimed south and southeast (298 degs NCal). The gale to dissipate from there. Larger very raw and windblown swell is possible for North and Central CA with some energy seeping into Southern CA. .

Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs AM (11/10) from 1.9 ft @ 12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: Moving from 310 to 290 degrees with luck and likely jumbled and raw.


Dateline Gale
A storm started developing just west of the dateline on Wed AM (11/9) starting to produce northwest winds at 45-50 kts and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening a decent fetch of 45-55 kt west and northwest winds were building with seas building from 36 ft at 44.5N 175E aimed southeast. Fetch continued while moving east straddling the dateline Thurs AM (11/10) at 50 kts with seas 41 ft at 47.25N 178.5E aimed east-southeast. In the evening west winds to be 40-45 kts just east of the dateline and south of the Aleutians with seas 38 ft at 48.25N 171.75W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/11) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts s over the Western Gulf with seas fading from 36 ft at 49.5N 168.75W. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the west in the Northern Gulf with seas from previous fetch fading from 33 ft at 50.75N 159W. On Sat AM (11/12) the gale is to be gone and seas fading from 26 ft at 51.5N 152.25W. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data for planning purposes suggests swell arrival on Sun (11/13) building to 4.3 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (7.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (11/14) from 3.6 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on late on Mon (11/14) building to 4.2 ft @ 16 secs (6.5 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell Direction: 304 degrees


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Fri AM (11/11) north winds are to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts off Central CA early. In the afternoon north to northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. rain developing for North CA down to Bodega Bay in the evening.
  • Sat AM (11/12) a weak low pressure system is to be just off Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon the low is to dissolve while falling south off North CA with northwest winds 10 kts or so for North CA and 15-20 kts from Monterey Bay southward. Light rain for Cape Mendocino in the morning and light snow down to Tahoe fading late afternoon. .
  • Sun AM (11/13) high pressure tries to build in with north winds 10+ kts for North CA early and northwest winds 10-15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA. No precip forecast. Light snow for the Central Sierra early quickly fading.
  • Mon AM (11/14) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at near 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
  • Tues AM (11/15) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. A hint of snow flurries for the Sierra through the day.
  • Wed AM (11/16) northeast winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light northeast winds are forecast in the afternoon but up to 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
  • Thurs AM (11/17) northeast winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA early. Winds turning northwest at 10 kts in the afternoon for North and Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 2, 2, 1, and 1 inches all on the night of Sat PM (11/12).

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to be bouncing between 10,000 ft on 11/10, 11/13, 11/16-17 and down to 3.000 ft in between.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).


South Pacific

Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred and no swell is in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon AM (11/14) a tropical gale is to be developing just west of the Southern Dateline with 40 kt south winds while another is just southeast of Kamchatka with 45 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 30N 170E and 28 ft seas at 47.5N 157E aimed east. Both gales are to lift northeast in the evening with the Kuril Gale fading from 35 kts and the other at 45 kts from the west over a tiny area with seas about 30 ft in each at 48.5N 162.5E and 33N 170W aimed east. On Tues AM the Kuril gael is to be up in the Bering Sea and of no interest while the dateline gale takes over with 45 kts west winds and seas 32 ft at 37N 173E aimed east. The gale is to lift north in the evening with 35-40 kts west winds 30 ft at 40.75N 175.5E aimed mostly north. The gael to continue tracking north with seas and fetch all aimed north not offering anything for Hawaii or the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Potential secondary fetch is to develop south of the tropical system on Wed PM (11/16) at 40 kts from the west with seas building to 27 ft at 39N 168E aimed east. On Thurs AM (11/17) more of the same is forecast with seas to 26 ft at 39N 175E aimed east.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


Upwelling Phase Still Underway
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and light to modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/10) Neutral to light east anomalies were covering all the KWGA today but with strong east anomalies over the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls light to modest east anomalies building over the KWGA with strong east anomalies steadily retrograding west filling the KWGA starting 11/15 and holding through the end of the forecast period on 11/17. The 2 week GFS model suggest moderate east anomalies starting to build over the KWGA today and and holding in pulses through 11/21, then getting significantly weaker.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/9) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral pattern holding on day 5 then turning weakly Active on days 10-15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests a Active signal near strong status on days 10 and 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/10) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over Africa today and is slowly track east to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east to the far West Pacific and building to moderate strength 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/10) The Inactive Phase (dry air) was over the East equatorial Pacific today. It is to slowly ease east moving into Ecuador on 11/20 and gone. A modest Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/15 slowly tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/20 with a weak Inactive Signal starting to build over the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/9)
A weak Active signal was fading today over the dateline with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA except strong east anomalies over the direct dateline region. The forecast calls for the Active Phase quickly dissipating with west anomalies west anomalies retrograding from 165E to 145E by 11/17 but then holding solidly west of 145E through the end of the model run on 12/7 while the Active Phase builds over the Maritime Continent. East anomalies are to hold moderately over the dateline through the end of the model run. A significant change is setting up over the far West Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(11/10) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were quickly retreating from the KWGA with the Active Phase of the MJO past its peak over the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO lingering over the dateline and points east of there through 11/14 then collapsing. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to try and set up weakly 11/11-12/1 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA to 150E through 11/23 with east anomalies east of there. But after 11/25 east anomalies are to steadily be retreating to the east with weak west anomalies taking over the KWGA from the dateline westward through the end of the model run. A generally weak MJO signal is forecast alternating between weak Active and weak Inactive through the end of the model run. Regardless, coverage of weak westerly anomalies are to be slowly increasing and solidifying over the entirety of the KWGA with east anomalies relegated east of the dateline by early Dec and also then building over the Maritime Continent starting 12/20. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold then collapsing on 12/18 with the primary contour moving east and out of the KWGA at the end of the model run. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 12/4 reaching east to 155E at the end of the model run on 2/7. This is all a big deal. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight. This suggests the full demise of La Nina is starting to occur.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 174E to 178E. The 26 degree isotherm was easing east from 158W to 148W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 118W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 140W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 125W and filling the area from 140W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a fading core at -20 cms positioned between 120W-132W with -15 cm anomalies between 110-140W with -10 cm anomalies holding from 95W to 145W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 155W to Ecuador with a cold core at 130W and building. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/9) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 25S. A very cool stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator. But the broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 25S was losing intensity quickly and steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/9): A broad area of steady warming was indicated from South Chile up to Ecuador and extending west the whole way across the equatorial Pacific. And a thin stream of mixed warming and cooling water was extending west within that flow from Ecuador to 140W. A significant warming trend was occurring just south of the equator. The trend was finally headed in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (11/9) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 25S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters are in steep decline today everywhere but directly over the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/10) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were falling from -1.742 (11/6) to -2.177 after falling to -1.850 on 10/20 and falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps at -1.865 degs and toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/10) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were rising some at -0.923 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and down at -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were falling some at -1.130 after falling to -1.128 degs on 11/3 after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

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CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/10) - Temps are to be falling to -1.20 degs mid-Nov then starting a fairly steady rise in Dec hitting -0.75 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the 2nd week of Feb 2023 and up to +0.50 degs in July approaching El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 in mid-Nov (any day now) and then are to start pushing up to -0.70 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the last week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.50 degs in July. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/10) the Daily Index was rising at +17.62 after being negative for 5 days dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +11.29 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at +13.87 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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