BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, November 8, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (11/8) in North and Central CA surf was estimated at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with some underlying warble and soft but with decent form with light local winds. Protected breaks had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up if not closed out and lightly warbled but with reasonably clean surface conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean but mostly soft. In Ventura County waves were up to head high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form but with a little warble underneath. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up with decent form and clean though a little soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh high and lined up and clean but real soft coming from the north. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up with decent form but soft and clean with modest fog early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up but pretty warbled from northeast trades early. The South Shore had sets at knee to maybe thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and clean early. The East Shore was getting easterly windswell at waist high and warbled from modest northeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (11/8) Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. California was getting remnant swell energy from a gale previously in the Central Gulf Tues-Wed (11/5) that produced 24-26 ft seas aimed east. Another system is forecast for the Central Gulf Sat-Sun (11/9) with 26-28 ft seas initially aimed south at Hawaii then swinging east targeting California. Another system developed off the Kurils Fri (11/7) moving to the North Dateline region later Sat (11/8) with up to 34 ft seas briefly aimed east. Remnants are to track east over the dateline Sun-Mon (11/10) with 25-27 ft seas aimed east. Another system is to be developing off the North Kuril Islands Tues-Wed (11/12) with up to 29 ft seas aimed east. And maybe another system is to develop off North CA Wed-Thurs (11/13) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast. And another is forecast for the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Sat (11/15) with 32-36 ft seas aimed east-southeast. A steady small swell pattern looks likely.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (11/8) the jetstream was consolidated running generally east on the 45N latitude line with a trough just of the South Kuril Islands being fed by 110 kts winds offering weak support for gale development there then ridging north over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 200 kts winds supporting only high pressure before falling hard south into a nearly pinched trough over the Gulf offering limited support for gale formation before ridging north again and pushing inland over Central Canada. Over the next 72 hours the Kuril trough is to fade out by Sun (11/9) over the dateline no longer supporting gale formation. The Gulf trough is to persist into late Sun (11/10) supporting gale formation before fading in the Eastern Gulf. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (11/11) again a ridge is to develop over the far Northwest Gulf pushing the jet up into the Bering Sea with a trough off the Kurils Islands being fed by 150 kt winds slowly easing east to the Dateline Fri (11/14) perhaps supporting gale formation. And in the east another steep almost pinched trough is forecast in the Gulf Tues-Thurs (11/13) being fed by 140 kt winds offering some support for gale formation there while slowly easing east. eventually tracking over Central CA on Sat (11/15) perhaps resulting in weather. At 180 hours out (sat (11/15) the jet is to be running flat east on the 40N latitude line with winds building from 150 kts off Japan perhaps offering a more energetic storm track beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (11/8) swell was fading out in California originating from a gale previously over the Gulf of Alaska (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours 2 more gales are being tracked, one in the Gulf (see Another Gulf Gale below) and one off the Kurils (see Another Kuril Gale below).

Another Gulf Gale
A gale developed in the Gulf of Alaska Fri PM (11/7) with north winds building from 30-35 kts and seas building. On Sat AM (11/8) north winds were 35-40 kts in the eastern Gulf with seas 26 ft at 40N 147W aimed south somewhat at Hawaii. In the evening the gale is to hold position with 40 kt north to northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 39N 144W aimed southeast targeting mostly open ocean between CA and HI. On Sun AM (11/9) northwest winds to be fading from 30-35 kts off Washington with seas 25 ft at 44N 141W aimed south and southeast targeting CA. Fetch gone by the evening. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (11/9) building to 6.5 ft @ 11 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/10) from 5.3 ft @ 10 secs early (5.0 ft) and being overrun by stronger energy building to 7.1 ft @ 13 secs later in the day (9.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (11/11) from 6.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees moving to 25 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Mon (11/10) building to 5.1 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (6.5 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (11/11) from 4.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early. Swell Direction: 275-280 degrees

Another Kuril Gale
And a gale developed Fri AM (11/7) over and just off the North Kuril Islands with west and southwest winds 35 and 45 kts respectively in 2 pockets and seas building from 27 ft at 44N 166E. In the evening a complex storms was set up off the North Kurils producing west winds at 45-50 kts and seas 26-30 ft at 47N 155E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/8) the gale was lifting north just south of the Western Aleutians off Kamchatka with northwest winds 35-45 kts pushing off Kamchatka with seas 28-31 ft at 44N 161E and 33 ft up at 51N 172E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts streaming east off the North Kurils with seas 26 ft at 48N 165E aimed east. Sun AM (11/9) a consolidated fetch of 30-35 kts northwest winds is to be extending from Kamchatka to the dateline with seas 27 ft at 47.5N 175E aimed east and southeast. In the evening 30+ kts west winds are to be fading over the dateline with seas 24 ft at 48N 177.5E aimed east. Mon AM (12/10) limited west winds at 30 kts are to be over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 21 ft at 49N 160W aimed east. Fetch fading from there. Maybe some small swell for HI and CA to result. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (11/12) building to 3.3 ft @ 15 secs (5.0 ft) later in the day. Swell fading Thurs (11/13) from 3.1 ft @ 14 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

Gulf Gale
On Tues AM (11/4) remnant energy from the Kuril Gale (above) is to be redeveloping over the Central Gulf producing northwest winds at 30-35 kts over a solid area off North and Central CA with seas 24 ft at 39.25N 153.5W aimed southeast (284 degs NCal, 291 SCal). In the evening northwest winds to rebuild a bit to the north at 35 kts solid with seas 25 ft at 41.25N 146.5W aimed southeast (289 degs NCal, 297 SCal). On Wed AM (11/5) northwest winds to be lifting north some at 30-35 kts off Cape Mendocino with seas 25 ft at 39.75N 138W aimed southeast (285 degs NCal, 297 SCal). Fetch fading while lifting hard north in the evening from 30-35 kts off Washington with seas 23 ft up at 43N 133W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

North CA: Residuals on Sat (11/8) fading from 5.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 284-289 degrees

Southern CA: Residuals fading on Sat (11/8) from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 291-297 degs

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (11/8) no meaningful southern hemi swell was our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon PM (11/10) a gale is forecast pushing off the Kurils producing west winds at 30-35 kts with seas building. On Tues AM (11/11) the gale is forecast off the Kuril Islands with 35-40 kts west winds with seas building to 24 ft at 44N 157.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to lift north with 35 ks west winds off the North Kurils and seas 27 ft at 47N 163E aimed east. On Wed AM (11/12) west winds to fade from 30-35 kts off Kamchatka with seas 25 ft at 48N 169E aimed east. Something to monitor.

And perhaps a gale is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf on Sat (11/15) with 33 ft seas aimed east.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere -- Is the Change Coming?
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/6) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east to the dateline and calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the dateline turning neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/8) Today moderate plus west anomalies were filling the west KWGA to 140E. Moderate to strong east anomalies were over the dateline. The forecast indicates west anomalies to hold at 145E unchanged through the end of the model run on 11/24. East anomalies are to fade to modest strength mostly on the dateline 11/10-11/19 then rebuilding 11/20-11/24 before fading the last day of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (11/8) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east moving from 173E to 178E due to slackening of east anomalies and fading of the Inactive Phase of the MJO previously there. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175W. The 24 degree isotherm was easing east moving from 130W to 121W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface over portions of the equatorial Pacific. And cold anomalies were rebuilding at depth at -3 at 140W with warming water at the thermocline holding steady at 165W. In all cool waters are rebuilding due to east anomalies and a recent Inactive Phase of the MJO. But that is fading fast. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deeper ocean at the thermocline (150 meters) east of 165W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 175W (previously 150W). -10 cms anomalies were still there but quickly fading and present in the a few pockets. between the Galapagos to 140W. The entire East Equatorial Pacific was in a cool pattern again, but it seems we're past the worst of it, and even at that it is not too bad. Heights were weakly above normal from 170E and points west of there. The cool pool is rebuilding over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/4) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 145W to Ecuador. Warm anomalies were west of 178E (previously 150W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/7) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 165E with embedded cooler pockets evenly spread across that area. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/7): Temps were neutral but cooling some from Ecuador to the Galapagos, likely the result of the last lingering remnants of and Inactive MJO exiting the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/8) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.990. Previously temps were -0.7 10/24-11/1 and previously steady at -1.00 (10/13-10/20) then had been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/8) Today's temps were falling at -1.129 down from -0.973 (11/5) after falling to -1.087 (10/30) and had been hovering in this range since 9/15 . Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.6 (week of 10/29, 10/22 & 10/15). Previously temps were -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.46 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.63 (JAS), -0.48 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (11/8) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall hard to -0.95 briefly mid-Nov, rising -0.60 mid-Dec and technically neutral early Jan, -0.30 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to only -0.85 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in Dec then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.633 in OND (previous model run -0.623), then rising to -0.539 in DJF and 0.026 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.662 (-0.710 previous run) OND then rising to +0.443 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.602 NDJ (-0.526 previous run) rising to -0.019 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/8) the Daily Index was positive at 18.89 and has been rising since 10/20 and positive the last month.
The 30 day average was rising to +14.82 and had been rising steadily from +2.88 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +7.31 and on the high side of ENSO neutral rising steadily from +3.95 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table