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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, November 8, 2022 1:49 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.2 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/7 thru Sun 11/13

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

North Gulf Swell Hitting CA
Dateline Storm Forecast - More Projected To Follow

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, November 8, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 10.2 secs from 182 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.6 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 7.8 secs from 46 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 15.5 secs from 219 degrees. Wind south at 18-21 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 60.4 (Topanga 103), 60.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.6 (Del Mar 153), 65.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 13.0 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.6 secs from 212 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.7 secs from 205 degrees. Water temperate was 65.3 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.9 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 7.4 ft @ 13.5 secs from 306 degrees. Wind west at 6-10 kts. Water temp 55.4 (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (46026), 55.0 (SF Bar 142), 55.0 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 59.2 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (11/6) North and Central CA was getting raw north swell at 3 ft overhead and warbled and a bit disorganized but fairly clean with some decent sections and light southeast wind. Protected breaks were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was 1-2 ft overhead and warbled and disorganized with heavy southerly lump intermixed. In Southern California/Ventura waves were head high and lined up and clean with good form when they came. Central Orange County was a south wind blown out mess with rare chop waves a little overhead and whitecapped with rain. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high and trashed by south winds with whitecaps in effect and raining. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and blown out from south winds and whitecapped with rain. Hawaii's North Shore had a few waist high northeast windswell sets and clean but with northerly lump intermixed. The South Shore had a few stray windswell thigh high sets and clean and weak and disorganized. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest to shoulder high and heavily chopped from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/8) exposed breaks in California were getting swell from a gale that developed in the Northeastern Gulf falling southeast to a point off North CA Fri-Tues (11/8) producing up to 26 ft seas close to the coast but down to 19 ft today. Raw swell is impacting the coast and is to fade through the workweek. Of more interest is a storm forecast developing on the dateline Wed-Thurs (11/10) producing up to 42 ft seas aimed east at the Hawaiian Island and the US West Coast then fading into Sat AM (11/12) while tracking over the Central Gulf of Alaska. Certainly something to monitor. Another gale is to be right behind it tracking east over the dateline Sat-Sun (11/13) with up to 28 ft seas then redeveloping in the Gulf on Mon (11/14) with 35 ft seas falling southeast. And yet another gale is forecast behind that pushing over the North Dateline Mon-Tues (11/15) with a broad area of 28-30 ft seas developing. Fall is starting. All hail the development of westerly wind anomalies over the Equatorial West Pacific.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/8) the jetstream was somewhat consolidated pushing east-northeast off Japan with winds to 150 kts building on the dateline with a weak trough trying to build over the Eastern Aleutians then much weaker tracking up into the Northern Gulf before fading out. A solid backdoor trough was extending off the coast off Oregon and California pushing inland over Southern CA making for weather there. But no clear support for gale development was indicated yet. Over the next 72 hours a trough is to start building west of the dateline being fed by 120 kts winds offering some support for gale development later Wed (11/9) and building while tracking east-northeast into the Western Gulf on Fri (11/11) before pinching off on Sat (11/12). The backdoor trough over California is to move inland on Wed (11/9) with a weak ridge setting up behind. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (11/13) another broader trough is forecast developing over the Western Gulf being fed by 150 kts winds and digging out nicely while holding position if not falling southeast on Mon (11/14) offering good support for gale development. That trough is to deepen but almost pinch on Tues (11/15) with its apex 700 nmiles north of Hawaii while winds start building solidly pushing off Japan at 130 kts over a broad area offering great support for gale development. The long forecast change is starting!


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/8) swell was hitting California associated with a gale that had tracked south over the Northeastern Gulf (see Northeastern Gulf Gale below). That gael was fading fast now off California.

Over the next 72 hours a storm is forecast developing just west of the dateline on Wed AM (11/9) starting to produce northwest winds at 45-50 kts and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening a decent fetch of 50-55 kt west and northwest winds is forecast with seas building from 34 ft at 45N 173.5E aimed southeast. Fetch continues while moving east straddling the dateline Thurs AM (11/10) at 50 kts with seas 42 ft at 46.5N 179.5E aimed east-southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 45 kts just east of the dateline with seas 39 ft at 46N 174.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/11) northwest winds to be fading from 35 kts over the Western Gulf with seas fading from 37 ft at 48.5N 167.25W. In the evening fetch is to be gone with seas from previous fetch fading from 32 ft at 48.5N 160.25W. On Sat AM (11/12) the gale is to be gone and seas fading from 25 ft at 49N 153W. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data for planning purposes suggests swell arrival on Sun (11/13) building to 5.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-AM (8.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (11/14) from 3.9 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

 

Northeast Gulf Gale
A small fetch developed in the Northern Gulf Fri AM (11/4) producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building. In the evening northwest winds built in coverage at 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 54.75N 143.25W aimed southeast and shadowed relative to NCal. Fetch rebuilt in coverage and positioned more to the west on Sat AM (11/5) at 35-40 kts with 21 ft seas at 53N 144W aimed southeast and still shadowed relative to North CA (322 degs). In the evening fetch was falling south at 35 kts aimed southeast with seas 23 ft at 50N 142W aimed southeast and still shadowed (322 degs) relative to North CA. On Sun AM (11/6) north winds were 30-35 kts off Washington with seas 24 ft at 48.5N 142W aimed south and in the NCal swell window (314 degs). Fetch is to consolidate some in the evening at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 44N 136W aimed southeast and unshadowed at 307 degs relative to NCal. Fetch fading Mon AM (11/7) off the Pacific Northwest at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 41.25N 131.5W aimed southeast (301 degs NCal). In the evening the gale is to be fading off North CA from 30 kts from the north with seas fading from 20 ft at 40.75N 136W or just off Cape Mendocino (291 degs NCal). On Tues AM 911/8) 30 kt north winds to continue falling south well off Central CA with 19 ft seas at 42N 136W aimed south and southeast (298 degs NCal). The gale to dissipate from there. Larger very raw and windblown swell is possible for North and Central CA with some energy seeping into Southern CA. .

North CA: Swell fading Tues (11/8) from 7.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (10 ft). Swell fading on Wed AM (11/9) from 6.0 ft @ 12 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: Moving from 315 to 301 degrees with some energy possibly down to 296 degrees and likely a jumbled mess.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/8) at 2.5 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell continues Wed (11/9) at 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (13.5ft). Swell fading on Thurs AM (11/10) from 1.9 ft @ 12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: Moving from 310 to 290 degrees with luck and likely jumbled and raw.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed AM (11/9) low pressure is to be moving onshore over Nevada with north to northwest winds forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and mostly 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon north-northwest winds are to be collapsing at 10 kts for North and Central CA. Rain fading over Central CA by late morning. Moderate snow fading over the Sierra early afternoon.
  • Thurs AM (11/10) north to northeast winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 10 kts north of the Golden Gate and 15 kts from Pigeon Point southward. No precip forecast.
  • Fri AM (11/11) north winds are to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon north to northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA.
  • Sat AM (11/12) no change is forecast with weak high pressure and north winds 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Rain for Cape Mendocino late afternoon. .
  • Sun AM (11/13) light winds are forecast for North CA early from the northwest at 5-10 kts holding all day. Light precip for Cape Mendocino early falling south to Pt Reyes late morning and vaporizing after that.
  • Mon AM (11/14) light winds continue at 5 kts from the east for North CA early and calm for Central CA. In the afternoon a weak front is to be approaching from the west with south winds 5-10 kts for North CA and 1-5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
  • Tues AM (11/15) southeast winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon. the front is to dissipate before reaching the coast mid-day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 21, 24, 26, and 31 inches all from now till late Tues (11/8).

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to be falling from 4,000 ft on Tues (11/8) to the 1,000 ft range on Wed (11/9) then quickly rebuilding to 9,000 ft Thurs (11/10) holding till 11/12, falling slightly to 7,000 ft on the morning of 11/13, then building up to 10,500 ft on 11/14 and holding.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously over the South Central Pacific is hitting California but buried in more locally generated northerly swell (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Fall is starting and the Northern Hemi is activating.

 

Central South Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Central South Pacific Thurs AM (10/27) producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 53.5N 170.75W aimed northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt southwest winds held with seas 26 ft at 51S 160.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (10/28) southwest winds held at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 26 ft at 49.25S 155.25W aimed northeast. More of the same in the evening with seas building to 27 ft at 52S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (10/29) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a shrinking area with seas 25 ft at 50S 144W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Possible small swell to result for Hawaii and California. Will monitor.

Southern CA: Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 moving to 198 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 moving to 196 degrees. This swell likely to be buried in northerly swell.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (11/11) another gale is to start building while pushing southeast off Kamchatka with northwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 47N 164E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (11/12) 35 kt northwest winds to be pushing southeast with seas 28 ft at 47.5N 170.5E aimed southeast. in the evening 30-35 kt west winds to be approaching the dateline with seas 29 ft at 45.75N 178.5E. On Sun AM (11/13) the gale is to rebuild with 40-45 kts northwest winds over a small area and seas 27 ft at 40.5N 175W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be lifting northeast with 45-50 kts northwest winds over a small area and seas 34 ft at 44.5N 163.5W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/14) fetch is to be fading from 40 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 29 ft at 46.25N 159.75W aimed east. The gale is to be stalled in the evening with 35 kts northwest winds and seas fading from 23 ft at 46N 159W aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate after that.

And on Mon AM (11/14) a gale is to be developing just off the Southern Kuril Islands with 45 kts northwest winds while another is just southeast of it with 40 kt west winds and seas 27 ft at 43N 155E and 26 ft seas at 32N 169E aimed east. Both gales are to lift northeast in the evening with the Kuril Gale having 40-45 kt northwest winds and the other at 50 kts from the west with seas about 3 ft in each at 45.75N 161.75E and 35N 173E aimed east. On Tues AM the east most gale to take over starting to absorb fetch from the Kuril Gale resulting in a broad fetch of 35-40 kts northwest winds streaming from the Kuils to the dateline and the core fetch at 50-55 kts over the dateline with seas 39 ft at 40.5N 180W aimed east. The whole thing to rotate while lifting north with northwest winds 45-50 kts over a broad area and seas 26-30 kts biggest at 45N 178.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Phase Still Underway
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/7) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/8) Neutral anomalies were covering all the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for neutral anomalies holding over all the KWGA but with east anomalies slowly building on the dateline starting 11/10 and then steadily retrograding west filling the KWGA at the end of the forecast period on 11/15. The 2 week GFS model suggest weak to modest east anomalies starting to build over the KWGA 11/11 and holding through the end of the model run on 11/24, but significantly weaker compared to months past and not building west of 145E starting 11/22.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/7) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a weak Inactive Phase trying to develop over the far west KWGA on day 5 of the model run then collapsing with a neutral MJO signal on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests a weak Active signal setting up on day 10 building to moderate strength on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/8) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the Atlantic today and is quickly track east to the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east to the far West Pacific and building to moderate strength 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/8) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was over the Central equatorial Pacific today. It is to slowly ease east moving into Ecuador on 11/25. A weak Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/20 slowly tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/18 with a weak Inactive Signal starting to build over the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/7)
A weak Active signal was indicated today over the dateline with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for the Active Phase tracking east and dissipating over the East Pacific 11/10 but with west anomalies building over the West KWGA to 165E 11/9 then backtracking to 150E on 11/16 and holding to the end of the model run on 12/5. East anomalies are to hold over the dateline at modest strength over the model run but with one pocket building to strong status for a few days around 11/11 but quickly fading. A significant change is setting up over the West Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(11/8) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were weakly filling the KWGA with the Active Phase of the MJO past its peak over the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO lingering over the dateline and points east of there through 11/14 then collapsing. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to try and set up weakly 11/11-12/3 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA to nearly the dateline till the end of the model run. A generally weak MJO signal is forecast alternating between weak Active and weak Inactive through the end of the model run. If anything the coverage of weak westerly anomalies are to be slowly increasing and solidifying over the entirety of the KWGA with east anomalies relegated east of the dateline by 1/11 and then building over the Maritime Continent starting1/3. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold then collapsing on 12/28 with the primary contour moving east and out of the KWGA at the end of the model run. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 11/22 reaching east to 150E at the end of the model run on 2/5. This is all a big deal. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight. This suggests the full demise of La Nina is starting to occur.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/8) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 174E. The 26 degree isotherm was easing east from 158W to 152W . The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 120W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 147W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 125W and filling the area from 145W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a building core at -20 cms positioned between 120W-132W with -15 cm anomalies between 110-140W with -10 cm anomalies holding from 95W to 145W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 155W to Ecuador with a cold core at 130W and building. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/7) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A very cool stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator. But broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 20S was losing intensity quickly and steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/7): A broad area of steady warming was indicated from South Chile up to Ecuador and extending west the whole way across the equatorial Pacific. And a thin stream of much warmer water was extending within that flow from Ecuador to 120W. A significant warming trend was occurring. Only one tiny pocket of cooling was occurring on the equator at 115W. The trend was finally headed in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (11/7) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters are in steep decline today everywhere but directly over the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/8) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were falling from -1.742 (11/6) to -1.977 after falling to -1.850 on 10/20 and falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps at -1.920 degs and toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/8) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were rising some at -0.949 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and down at -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were steady at -1.090 after falling to -1.128 degs on 11/3 after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/8) - Temps are to be falling to -1.20 degs mid-Nov then starting a fairly steady rise in Dec hitting -0.75 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the 2nd week of Feb 2023 and up to +0.50 degs in July approaching El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 in mid-Nov and then are to start pushing up to -0.70 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the first week of Feb and rising from there forward to +0.50 degs in July. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/8) the Daily Index was steady at -14.98 after falling hard to -31.05 on 11/7 and negative the last 5 days. This was the first negative run in months. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +11.57 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling slightly at +13.82 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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