Sunday, November 7, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 15.6 secs from 181 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 80.1 (Barbers Pt).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 11.6 secs from 346 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 18.7 secs from 209 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 61.7 degs, 60.4 (Topanga 103), 61.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.9 (Del Mar 153), 65.5 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.7 ft @ 13.2 secs from 289 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 18.9 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 19.7 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 18.8 secs from 203 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 12.3 secs from 308 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north-northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 58.5 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.1 (46026), 58.8 degs (SF Bar 142), and 58.1 (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (11/4) North and Central CA had waves at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up but heavily warbled by northwest wind and not very rideable. Protected breaks had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up if not closed out and warbled and not real rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean but soft and uneven with a good number of waves in a set. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and clean and lined up but a bit soft. Central Orange County had sets at head high and line dup and clean with some decent form on occasion. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up and clean with good form. North San Diego had surf at waist to near chest high and lined up and clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting some minimal swell with waves waist to maybe chest high on the peaks and clean and lined up but slow. The South Shore was getting rare sets at waist high and clean. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell with waves thigh high or so and chopped from east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (11/7) Hawaii was getting minimal background windswell from no particularly well defined source. California was getting northwest windswell from the Gulf of Alaska, remnants of a previous gael over that region. Beyond a weak gale is forecast for the Northeastern Gulf on Tues (11/9) briefly producing up to 28 ft seas mostly north of the NCal swell window. Another weak fetch is to fall southeast from the North Dateline region on Wed (11/10) again briefly producing up to 21 ft seas targeting Hawaii then quickly fading. Perhaps a broader gale is to develop over the North Dateline Region on Sun (11/14). But for now a weak storm track is forecast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (11/7) the jet was pushing east off Japan tracking generally east with winds building to 130 kts over the dateline ridging slightly over the Western Gulf then falling southeast to a low point just off San Francisco before pushing inland. No meaningful troughs were indicated. Over the next 72 hours starting Tues (11/9) the jet is to lift north over Kamchatka then falling southeast and forming a trough over the dateline being fed by 140 kts winds offering some support for gale development there before lifting a little northeast off the Pacific Northwest with winds building to 180 kts and poised to push into North CA. More of the same is forecast on Wed (11/10) with the trough moving over the Western Gulf offering more support for gale development and the jet moving inland over the Pacific Northwest with winds 150 kts. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (11/11) the West Gulf trough is to hold if not move into the Central Gulf but starting to pinch off later on Fri (11/12) offering less support for gale development. The jet is to be pushing inland over Washington with a ridge over California. Then finally on Sun (11/14) the jet is to start building off Japan with 180 kts winds pushing over the dateline starting to form a new trough there offering theoretically good support for gale development. Otherwise a muddled and ill form jetstream flow is forecast over the eastern half of the North Pacific offering nothing to support gale development.
On Sunday (11/7) swell was fading in California from a gale previously over the Dateline/Western Gulf (see Dateline/Western Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Tues AM (11/9) a small gael is forecast develop just off British Columbia producing 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas to 20 ft at 48N 139W barely in the NCal swell window at 315 degrees. The gale is to be fading and moving inland in the evening with 30 ft seas at 50.5N 133W aimed east. Maybe some low odds of tiny sideband swell reaching down into California later in the work week. Windswell to precede it.
Also on Tues PM (11/9) a new gale is to be developing over the North Dateline region producing 35 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 49N 178E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/10) the gael is to be falling southeast with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 43.75N 179.25W aimed southeast at Hawaii. Fetch is to be fading from 30 kts in the evening with 18 ft seas fading at 40N 170W. Maybe small swell is to result for Hawaii.
Dateline/West Gulf Gale
A stronger system of tropical origins (formally Typhoon Malou off Japan) developed west of the dateline on Sat PM (10/30) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building 27 ft at 41N 173E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (10/31) Malou was falling southeast with 40-45 kt northwest winds over the dateline over a small area aimed southeast with 33 ft seas at 39.25N 179.5E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was fading while falling southeast at 35 kts with 29 ft seas at 36.5N 174.5W targeting Hawaii well. Fetch was fading north of Hawaii on Mon AM (11/1) at 30-35 kts producing 25 ft seas at 35.75N 167W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading from 30 kts in the evening just north of Hawaii with seas fading from 24 ft at 37.5N 160W aimed southeast. The gale was gone after that.
But residual northwest fetch is to push east on Wed AM (11/3) at 30-35 kts off California with 20 ft seas at 38N 140W aimed southeast. The gale redeveloped just off Cape Mendocino CA in the evening with 40 kts north west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 40N 137W aimed southeast (290 degs NCal). On Thurs AM (11/4) the gale was just off Cape Mendocino with 30 kt northwest winds and 22 ft seas just off the coast at 40N 130W aimed southeast (305 degs NCal).
North CA: Windswell continues on Sun (11/7) at 6.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 270 degrees moving to 290 and then 300+ degs for the possible secondary pulse.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Mon (11/8) south winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and building mid-AM to 10 kts and northwest winds 15-20 kts starting at Bodega Bay southward over all of Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 35-50 kts for North CA from Pt Arena northward and pushing south to Monterey Bay in the evening with a front pushing south with it while fading some during the evening. South winds 10-15 kts for Pt Conception in the evening. Rain developing and getting heavy for for North CA south to Monterey Bay in the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe in the evening.
- Tues (11/9) some flavor of west winds are forecast for North CA and Central CA at 15 kts early. In the afternoon light winds are forecast for both North and Central CA. Steady rain early for North and Central CA down to Pt Conception then clearing through the day. Heavy snow early for higher elevations of the Sierra early fading steadily through the day.
- Wed (11/10) south winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds at 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA and northwest 15 kts rom Big Sur southward. Rain for Cape Mendocino holding through the day.
- On Thurs (11/11) light winds are forecast for Cape Mendocino early with northwest winds 10 kts for the remainder of North CA early and north winds 10-15 kts for Monterey Bay southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino early.
- Fri (11/11) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early pushing more into the 15 kt range in the afternoon.
- Sat (11/12) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early remaining unchanged later.
- Sun (11/13) northwest winds are forecast at 15 ks for Cape Mendocino but 5-10 kts elsewhere fading to 5 kts or less everywhere later.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 9, 14, 8, and 11 inches all on the night of 11/8 into early 11/9.
Freezing level 6,500 ft building to 8,000 ft on 11/7, falling back to 6,000 ft late on 11/8 then hovering near 7-8,000 ft through 11/9 before steadily building to 12,000 ft on 11/11. Temps then holding there to 11/14. Freezing level crashing after that to 3,000 ft on 11/16.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
Small swell from a gale previously under new Zealand is radiating northeast (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Tiny New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Mon AM (11/1) producing 32 ft seas in the evening at 58.5S 168.75E aimed northeast. Seas held at 32 ft on Tues AM (11/2) at 58.5S 178E aimed northeast. All is to be fading in the evening. Small swell is radiating northeast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/9) building to 1.2 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (11/10) at 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). residuals on Thurs (11/11) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/11) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building Fri (11/12) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) later. Swell holding on Sat (11/13) at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sun (11/14) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing over the North Dateline region on Sun AM (11/14) producing 40-45 kt west winds and seas building from 18-20 ft at 45N 170E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to consolidate at 45 kts over a building area over the North Dateline region with 23 ft seas building at 43N 178.5E aimed east. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Now Stronger Below the Surface than Last Year
Summary - Cool subsurface water is building under the equatorial Pacific and stronger and broader in coverage than last year with no Kelvin Wave induced warm waters in sight. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the KWGA in later November and nearly filling the KWGA after that with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west in late Dec. The high pressure bias is in control of the dateline but is to ease east nearly out of the KWGA by Jan 2022. But it also seems likely cold surface waters are to hold well entrenched over the dateline through early Jan supporting bulletproof surface high pressure. The west wind anomalies forecast will likely not be enough to significantly effect the volume and depth of cold water building over Central Equatorial Pacific before Winter is over.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/7) east anomalies were strong over the entire KWGA and building. The forecast calls for strong east anomalies filling the KWGA centered just west of the dateline through 11/11 then fading some to moderate strength through the end of the model run on 11/14.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/6) A neutral MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects a weak Active MJO Phase developing over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run and building to strong status on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing but with the Active Phase far weaker on days 10 and 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/7) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Maritime Continent and is forecast tracking to the West Pacific at day 15 of the model run and weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/6) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the East Pacific. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to track into Central America on 11/11 with a moderate Active Phase (wet air) developing over the KWGA on 11/16. The Active Phase is to steadily track east and into Central America on 12/6. A stronger Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/1 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/16.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/6) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was near peaking over the West KWGA with strong east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to be controlling the KWGA through 11/20 with east anomalies holding at strong or near strong status during that window and east anomalies controlling the KWGA through 12/2, then fading with a small finger of east anomalies remaining just west of the dateline through the end of the model run on 12/4. A strong Active Phase and west anomalies is to be poised over the Maritime Continent starting to enter the West Pacific 11/27 reaching 20% of the way into the KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/7 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was pushing through the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to traverse the KWGA through 11/26 with east anomalies in control over the KWGA. A weak Active Phase is forecast developing 11/17-12/25 with west anomalies pushing through and filling the KWGA weakly. The Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 12/19 through the end of the model run on 2/4 but with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA till 1/18, then giving way to weak east anomalies. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias (1 contour line) is centered over the dateline with 2 contour lines and is hold while slowly building east to 120W on 12/20 then stalling there beyond. A broad single contour low pressure bias is to develop 11/9 centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E then steadily moving east into the KWGA on 1/2 and then reaching to 150E at the end of the model run filling 40% of the KWGA. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is now to pause for a month, then return. This Winters La Nina is to prevail.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back at 163E. The 28 deg isotherm line was holding at 176E. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 134W. Warm water has receded west and is holding position. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were pushing east to 150W. All sensors are down at 140W so this is a little suspect. Cool anomalies were in control at -4 degs C at 125W down 75 meters filling the East and Central Pacific. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control at depth forming an impenetrable brick wall. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates no warm water east of 160W with a bulletproof bubble of cold water at -5C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface and into Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights were negative over the entire equatorial Pacific at -5 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between the Galapagos to 175E and with solid peak at -25 cms at 125W with broad area at -20 cms between 120W to 145W and -15 cms anomalies between 100W-150W. All positive anomalies were limited from 160E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina has made a return and stronger than last year. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina is stronger than last year (-2.5 degs C) and far larger in coverage.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/3) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator starting thinly at the Galapagos tracking west and building in earnest from 115W to 160W and weaker west of there. Cooling nearshore along Chile and Peru was fading. A homogenous area of warm water was holding from Ecuador west just north of the equator to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/3): Temps were warming along Chile and Peru. And temps were warming on the equator from 100W-120W with cooling temps from 130W to 150W.
Hi-res Overview: (11/6) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator weakly from the Galapagos to 110W then stronger out to 160W then weaker to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A cool outflow remains in place pushing from South California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island but weaker than previous. La Nina is making a solid resurgence focused over the Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/7) Today's temps were rising some to -0.999 after falling to -1.112 on 11/2, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/7) Today temps were rising hard at -0.752 after falling to -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Temp have been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/7) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct. The forecast indicates temps to continue a dramatic fall from here forward dropping down to -1.95 in mid Jan 2022 then quickly pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.50 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.90 degs today, and are to fade to -0.91 degrees in Nov, then rising to -0.46 degs in Feb and neutral in April 2022. A solid return of La Nina is expected this Fall and early Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/7): The daily index was positive at +17.05. It previously peaked at +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was falling to +6.20 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +8.31 today after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table