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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, November 6, 2022 2:31 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.2 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/7 thru Sun 11/13

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small S. Hemi Swell Hitting SCal
North Gulf Gale Swell for NCal - Dateline to Possibly Awake

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, November 6, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 12,5 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.5 secs from 184 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 9.3 secs from 45 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 15.5 secs from 219 degrees. Wind northeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs, 58.8 (Topanga 103), 60.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 62.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 62.8 (Del Mar 153), 65.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 13.0 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.6 secs from 212 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.7 secs from 205 degrees. Water temperate was 65.1 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.2 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 6.0 ft @ 11.5 secs from 314 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 54.1 (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), 54.7 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 54.3 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (11/6) North and Central CA was getting northwest windswell at chest to head high and warbled and mushed with moderate west winds creating nearly whitecapped conditions. Protected breaks were chest high and somewhat lined up and mushed with intermixed warble but not chopped. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to maybe head high on the bigger sets and lined up and clean but warbled from tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up and clean but real soft and inconsistent. Central Orange County had some set waves at shoulder high and lined up but soft and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high and lined up but mushed with warble in the water and crossed up with a mix of northwest and southwest swell. North San Diego had sets at head high and lined up with nearly offshore winds but with some warble in the mix. Hawaii's North Shore had a few waist high sets and clean but weak. The South Shore had a few waist high sets and clean and weak. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest to shoulder high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (11/6) exposed breaks in California were getting local northwest windswell mixed with small southern swell from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific Thurs-Sat (10/29) that produced seas to 27 ft aimed northeast. Hawaii was getting the last dribbles of that south swell too. And the north shores of exposed Hawaiian Islands were seeing the fading remnants of tiny sideband swell that was generated from a small gale is developed off the Kuril Islands approaching the dateline Mon-Wed (11/2) producing 29 ft seas aimed mostly south and then loitered near the dateline through Fri (11/4) with 27 ft seas still aimed south. Up north another gale developed in the Northeastern Gulf falling southeast to a point off North CA Fri-Mon (11/7) producing up to 26 ft seas close to the coast. Some raw swell to result early in the workweek. Of more interest is a storm forecast developing on the dateline Wed-Thurs (11/10) producing up to 43 ft seas aimed well east at the Hawaiian Island and the US West Coast then fading into Sat (11/12) while tracking over the Central Gulf of Alaska. Certainly something to monitor. And there's some hints of more to follow over the dateline. Maybe high pressure that has been locking down the North Pacific is to fade some.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (11/6) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds to 130 kts but splitting over the dateline with most energy tracking north up into the North bering Sea before falling hard south just off the Canadian Coast at 180 kts forming a trough centered just off British Columbia offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to hold together while falling south with it's apex just off North CA pushing slowly inland through late Wed (11/9) likely supporting surf and weather production. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (11/9) the jet is to continue pushing off Japan with winds to 130 kts starting to carve out a trough over the dateline supporting gale development with winds building to 150 kts on Fri (11/11) while moving into the Gulf of Alaska offering yet more support for gale development. And theoretically a new trough is to start building in the Western Gulf on Sat (11/12) being fed by 130-140 kts winds and tracking east on Sun (11/13) offering yet more support for gale development. The jet is slowly getting better positioned than anytime so far this Fall.


Surface Analysis
On Sunday (11/6) swell was developing associated with a gale that was falling south over the Northeastern Gulf (see Northeastern Gulf Gale below).

Swell from a weak gale previously over the dateline was fading relative to Hawaii (see Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no other swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Dateline Gale
Mon AM (10/31) a gale developed off North Japan producing north winds at 45 kts and seas 26 ft at 42N 161E aimed south. In the evening north fetch continued at 40-45 kts easing east with seas 27 ft at 43N 166E aimed south. North fetch continued Tues AM (11/1) at 40 kts with seas 28 ft at 41N 166.5E aimed south. Fetch faded some in the evening at 35-40 kts from the north with seas 26 ft at 39N 167.75E aimed south. Fetch was fading Wed AM (11/2) from 35 kts mainly from the northeast with seas 23 ft at 38.25N 169.5E aimed south. The gale stall into Thurs AM (11/3) over the dateline producing a small area of north winds at 35-40 kts aimed south with seas 21 ft at 38.75N 176.5E then is forecast to build Fri AM (11/4) to 26 ft at 39.5N 178.75E still aimed south then gone by Sat AM (11/5). Low odds of sideband swell reaching the Hawaiian Islands.

Oahu: Swell building slightly on Sun (11/6) at 1.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (1.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 305-315 degrees

 

Northeast Gulf Gale
A small fetch developed in the Northern Gulf Fri AM (11/4) producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas building. In the evening northwest winds built in coverage at 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 54.75N 143.25W aimed southeast and shadowed relative to NCal. Fetch rebuilt in coverage and positioned more to the west on Sat AM (11/5) at 35-40 kts with 21 ft seas at 53N 144W aimed southeast and still shadowed relative to North CA (322 degs). In the evening fetch was falling south at 35 kts aimed southeast with seas 23 ft at 50N 142W aimed southeast and still shadowed (322 degs) relative to North CA. On Sun AM (11/6) north winds were 30-35 kts off Washington with seas 24 ft at 48.5N 142W aimed south and in the NCal swell window (314 degs). Fetch is to consolidate some in the evening at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 44N 136W aimed southeast and unshadowed at 307 degs relative to NCal. Fetch fading Mon AM (11/7) off the Pacific Northwest at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 41.25N 131.5W aimed southeast (301 degs NCal). In the evening the gale is to be fading off North CA from 30 kts from the north with seas fading from 20 ft at 40.75N 136W or just off Cape Mendocino (291 degs NCal). On Tues AM 911/8) 30 kt north winds to continue falling south well off Central CA with 19 ft seas at 42N 136W aimed south and southeast (298 degs NCal). The gale to dissipate from there. Larger very raw and windblown swell is possible for North and Central CA with some energy seeping into Southern CA. .

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/7) at 8.1 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (10 ft). Swell fading Tues (11/8) from 7.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (10 ft). Swell fading on Wed AM (11/9) from 6.0 ft @ 12 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: Moving from 315 to 301 degrees with some energy possibly down to 296 degrees and likely a jumbled mess.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/8) at 2.5 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell continues Wed (11/9) at 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (13.5ft). Swell fading on Thurs AM (11/10) from 1.9 ft @ 12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: Moving from 310 to 290 degrees with luck and likely jumbled and raw.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon AM (11/7) low pressure is to be circulating just off the Oregon and falling south with a front pushing south from Monterey Bay early with northwest winds 10-15 kts early for all of North and Central CA but south south of Monterey Bay at 10 kts. In the afternoon west to northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA down to Morro Bay early building over all of Southern CA in the afternoon and early evening. Heavy snow for Tahoe before sunrise sweeping south over the Sierra through the day then moderating in the evening.
  • Tues AM (11/8) the low starts fading while moving onshore over North CA with north winds 10 kts for North CA and west to southwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Northwest winds continue in the afternoon at 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. Light rain continues for all of California all day fading for North CA in the evening. Moderate to heavy snow rebuilding over the Sierra through the day and heavy in the evening.
  • Wed AM (11/9) the low is to be onshore over Nevada with north to northwest winds forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon north-northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA. Rain fading over Central CA by late morning. Snow fading for the Sierra late morning.
  • Thurs AM (11/10) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts reaching south to Pt Arena and northwest winds 10 kts south of the Golden Gate. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 10 kts north of Bodega Bay with a front approaching and northwest winds 10 kts south of there. No precip forecast.
  • Fri AM (11/11) the front is to be impacting North CA with south winds up to 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to Pt Reyes with northwest winds 10 kts from Pigeon Point southward. In the afternoon then front pushes through the coast with west winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA except south winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino. Rain developing for all of North CA mid-AM pushing south to Big Sur late afternoon and Morro Bay in the evening. Snow for Tahoe in the evening.
  • Sat AM (11/12) low pressure associated with the pervious days front impact Cape Mendocino with south winds 30 kts and southwest winds 10-15 kts down to the Golden Gate. Northwest winds are forecast for Central CA south of Monterey Bay at 10 kts. In the afternoon the front pushes trough with northwest winds 5 kts for North AC and 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA early fading late afternoon. Light snow for Tahoe through the day.
  • Sun AM (11/13) light winds are forecast for North CA early and northwest at 10 kts front Santa Cruz southward. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 39, 42, 47, and 40 inches with most scattered between later Sun (11/6) through late Tues (11/8) and then a little early on Sat (11/12).

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is to be falling from 7,000 ft on Sun (11/6) to 2,000 ft on 11/9 holding in the 4-6,000 ft range through 11/13 then steadily rising to 11,000 ft on 11/15.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously over the South Central Pacific is hitting California (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours the model suggests a gale tracking under New Zealand on Fri AM (11/4) with 27 ft seas at 53.25S 167.5E aimed northeast. In the evening seas are to be fading from 25 ft at 53S 175E aimed northeast. The gale to fade from there. something to monitor.

 

Central South Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Central South Pacific Thurs AM (10/27) producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 53.5N 170.75W aimed northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt southwest winds held with seas 26 ft at 51S 160.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (10/28) southwest winds held at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 26 ft at 49.25S 155.25W aimed northeast. More of the same in the evening with seas building to 27 ft at 52S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (10/29) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a shrinking area with seas 25 ft at 50S 144W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Possible small swell to result for Hawaii and California. Will monitor.

Hawaii: Dribbles on Sun (11/6) fading from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Swell builds some Sun (11/6) later AM to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (11/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 moving to 198 degrees

North CA: Swell builds some Sun (11/6) later AM to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (11/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 moving to 196 degrees. This swell likely to be buried in northerly swell.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a storm is forecast developing just west of the dateline on Wed PM (11/9) producing a decent fetch of 55 kt northwest winds and seas building from 32 ft at 42N 171.75E aimed southeast. Fetch continues while moving east Thurs AM (11/10) at 55 kts with seas 42 ft at 43.25N 178.5E aimed east-southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 45-50 kts just east of the dateline with seas 43 ft at 42.75N 173.75W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/11) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts with seas fading from 39 ft at 42.25N 167.25W. In the evening west winds to be 35+ kts moving into the Western Gulf with seas fading from 36 ft at 44N 159.25W. On Sat AM (11/12) the gale is to be fading over the Gulf with 30 kt west winds and seas fading from 29 ft at 42.5N 154W. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Phase Still Underway
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/5) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/6) Neutral anomalies were covering all the KWGA today with modest west anomalies isolated to the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for neutral anomalies holding over all the KWGA but with east anomalies slowly building on the dateline starting 11/9 and then slowly building in coverage filling the eastern half of the KWGA at the end of the forecast period on 11/13. The 2 week GFS model suggest weak west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA today and holding till 11/8 with weak to modest east anomalies returning to the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 11/22, but significantly weaker compared to months past.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/5) A weak Active Phase of the MJO was indicated today over the KWGA centered over the dateline. The statistical model indicates the Active Phase fading on day 5 of the model run with a a weak Inactive signal over the KWGA on day 5 then fading to neutral on day 10 with a weak ACtive signal returning on day 15. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/6) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the far East Pacific today and is quickly track east to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east around to the far West Pacific and weak 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/6) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was over the KWGA today. It is to slowly ease east while losing energy and dissolving over the dateline on 12/1. A weak Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/26 slowly tracking east to the dateline at the end of the model run on 12/16.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/5)
A weak Active signal was indicated today over the dateline with weak west anomalies partially filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for the Active Phase tracking east and dissipating over the East Pacific 11/8 but with west anomalies building over the West KWGA to 150E and holding from today forward to the end of the model run on 12/3. East anomalies are to hold over the dateline at modest strength over the model run but with one pocket building to strong status for a few days around 11/11 but quickly fading. A significant change is setting up over the West Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(11/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were filling the KWGA at modest strength with the Active Phase of the MJO past its peak over the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO lingering over the dateline and points east of there through 11/14 then collapsing. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to try and set up weakly 11/12-11/25 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA to nearly the dateline till the end of the model run. A generally weak MJO signal is forecast alternating between weak Active and weak Inactive through the end of the model run. If anything the coverage of weak westerly anomalies are to be increasing and solidifying over the entirety of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold then collapsing on 12/8 with the primary contour moving east and out of the KWGA at the end of the model run. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 11/22 reaching east to 150E at the end of the model run on 2/3. This is all a big deal. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight. This suggests the full demise of La Nina is starting to occur.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 173E. The 26 degree isotherm was easing east from 158W to 153W . The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 120W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge stable at 150W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -4 degs C were centered at 135W and filling the area from 150W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a building core at -15 cms positioned between 110-140W with -10 cm anomalies holding from 95W to 150W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 158W to Ecuador and stable in coverage and intensity. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If something doesn't change soon, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/5) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A very cool stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W. But broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 20S was losing intensity quickly and steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/5): A broad area of gentle but steady warming was indicated from South Chile up to Ecuador and extending west the whole way across the equatorial Pacific. And a thin stream of much warmer water was extending within that flow from Ecuador to 120W. A significant warming trend was occurring.
Hi-res Overview: (11/5) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. But the intensity and density of those sold waters are in steep decline today. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/6) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were falling some at -1.742 after falling to -1.850 on 10/20 and falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps at -1.792 degs and toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/6) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were rising some at -0.992 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and down at -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were rising to -1.078 after falling to -1.128 degs on 11/3 after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/6) - Temps are to be falling to -1.20 degs mid-Nov then starting a fairly steady rise in Dec hitting -0.75 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the 2nd week of Feb 2023 and up to +0.50 degs in July approaching El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 in mid-Nov and then are to start pushing up to -0.70 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the first week of Feb and rising from there forward to +0.50 degs in July. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/6) the Daily Index was falling hard at -17.44 today and negative the last 3 days. this was the first negative readings in months. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +14.51 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling slightly at +14.281 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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