BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, November 4, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/4) in North and Central CA surf was 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean but a bit soft and mushed with just a touch of small warble in the water early. Protected breaks had sets at chest to head high and lined up with decent form and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets and lined up and clean but soft with a little warble in the water. In Ventura County waves were waist high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form but pretty soft. Central Orange County had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean on the rare sets. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up with good form and clean but long wits in between sets. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form. The South Shore had sets at knee to maybe thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and clean early. The East Shore was getting wrap-around northerly windswell with waves waist to chest high and warbled from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/4) Hawaii was getting windswell from local fetch previously north of the Islands. California was getting the fading remnants of swell from a gale that developed over the Western Gulf Thurs-Fri (10/31) with 38 ft seas over a small area aimed east mixed with secondary energy from a gale previously in the Northern Gulf Sat (11/1) with 26 ft seas aimed east. Looking forward a gale developed off the North Kuril Islands Sat-Sun (11/2) tracking east with 28-29 ft seas aimed east then started falling southeast over the dateline Mon (11/3) with seas 26 ft. Swell from that system is expected to reach Hawaii later Wed (11/5). Remnants of that system are forecast to redevelop in the Central Gulf on Tues-Wed (11/5) producing 24-26 ft seas aimed well at Central and Southern CA. Another system is forecast for the Central Gulf Fri-Sun (11/9) with 26 ft seas initially aimed south at Hawaii then swinging east targeting California with 25 ft seas. Another system is forecast developing off the Kurils Fri (11/7) moving to the North Dateline region later Sat (11/8) with 33-34 ft seas briefly aimed east then reorganizing In the Northwestern Gulf Sun-Mon (11/10) with seas building to 37 ft then tracking northeast into the Northern Gulf with seas 44 ft aimed east. Another system is to be developing off the North Kuril ISlands Tues (11/11) with 38 ft seas aimed east. A steady swell pattern looks possible.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/4) the jetstream was consolidated over the North Pacific lifting northeast off Japan to the dateline with winds building to 180 kts with those winds then falling southeast digging out a trough developing over the Gulf of Alaska offering good support for gale development there. Remnant energy was limping into Oregon. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to continue circulating off North CA supporting gale formation eventually pushing into North CA on Wed (11/5) making weather there. On Thurs (11/6) wind energy is to build in the jet off the Kurils at 170 kts falling southeast over the dateline starting to build a new trough there pushing east with winds building to 180 kts of Fri (11/7). Beyond 72 hours that trough is to be pretty pinched off Sat (11/8) over the Gulf of Alaska slowly easing east into early Mon (11/10) no longer supporting gale formation. To the west the jet is to be reorganizing while pushing east off Japan tracking east over the dateline then lifting northeast up to the the Northern Gulf but with no troughs forecast. By Tues (11/11) a solid trough is forecast developing over the North Dateline region being fed by 160 kts winds offering support for gale development. East of there the jet is to be moving over the Bering Sea then falling hard south over the Gulf with winds 150 kts digging out a tight trough offering some support for gale formation before pushing inland over Central Canada. In all a reasonably decent jetstream pattern is forecast.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/4) swells were fading out over California and Hawaii originating from a series of gales, one off the Kuril Islands and another in the Gulf (see Another Gulf Gale and Kuril Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a new gale is to be tracking east from the Kurils over the dateline (see Kuril Gale below). And remnants of it are to redevelop in the Gulf (see Gulf Gale below).

Kuril Gale
On Sat PM (11/1) fetch developed pushing east off the Kuril Islands at 40 kts with seas 30 ft over a small area at 44.75N 155E aimed east. On Sun AM (11/2) west winds were 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 47N 164.5E aimed east targeting the Islands well. In the evening northwest winds were 40 kts approaching the dateline with seas 28 ft at 48.75N 174.25E aimed east. On Mon AM (11/3) fetch was falling southeast just east of the dateline at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 47N 172W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was falling southeast into the Central Gulf at 35 kts from the northwest with seas 25 ft at 42.75N 163.25W targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. Swell is radiating towards Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/5) building to 4.8 ft @ 13 secs later (6.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (11/6) from 4.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/7) from 3.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 345-350 degrees

Gulf Gale
On Tues AM (11/4) remnant energy from the Kuril Gale (above) is to be redeveloping over the Central Gulf producing northwest winds at 30-35 kts over a solid area off North and Central CA with seas 24 ft at 39.25N 153.5W aimed southeast (284 degs NCal, 291 SCal). In the evening northwest winds to rebuild a bit to the north at 35 kts solid with seas 25 ft at 41.25N 146.5W aimed southeast (289 degs NCal, 297 SCal). On Wed AM (11/5) northwest winds to be lifting north some at 30-35 kts off Cape Mendocino with seas 25 ft at 39.75N 138W aimed southeast (285 degs NCal, 297 SCal). Fetch fading while lifting hard north in the evening from 30-35 kts off Washington with seas 23 ft up at 43N 133W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Thurs (11/6) building to 10.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (14.5 ft). Swell fading some on Fri (11/7) from 7.0 ft @ 13 secs (9.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/8) fading from 6.3 ft @ 12 secs early (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 284-289 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Thurs (11/6) building to 3.8 ft @ 15 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell holding Fri (11/7) at 2.7 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sat (11/8) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 291-297 degs

Another Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (10/29) a tiny gale started to circulate over the Western Gulf with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building. On Thurs AM (10/30) northwest winds were 50-55 kts with seas 38 ft at 46.25N 158.25W aimed east (300 degs NCal). In the evening the storm swept east-northeast with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 39 ft at 46.5N 150.25W aimed east (304.5 degs NCal). On Fri AM (10/31) fetch swept northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 34 ft at 48.75N 140.5W aimed east (318 degs NCal and totally shadowed) but with 22 ft seas at 42N 150W aimed southeast (290 degs NCal). Secondary fetch built in the Northwest Gulf at 35-40 kts from the northwest with seas building. In the evening the gale lifted northeast poised to move onshore Central Canada with secondary fetch 35-40 kts holding position in the Northern Gulf producing 25 ft seas at 50N 152W aimed southeast (310 degs NCal). Fetch was fading Sat AM (11/1) from 30-35 kts with seas 21 ft at 47.5N 153W aimed southeast (303.8 degs NCal). Fetch and seas faded out from there. Sideband swell for the Islands and far more direct swell is expected for the US West Coast.

North CA: Dribbles Tues (11/4) fading from 4.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 304-308 and 312 degrees

Kuril Gale
On Tues PM (10/28) a gale developed just off the Central Kuril Islands with 35 kt west winds and seas building from 22 ft at 48.5N 158.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (10/29) the gale pushed east with 30-35 kt west winds and seas 22 ft at 48N 157E aimed east. Fetch held while tracking east in the evening at 30-35 kts over the dateline with 18-20 ft seas at 43N 178W aimed southeast. Maybe some swell to radiate towards Hawaii.

Oahu: Windswell residuals fading Tues (11/4) from 3.8 ft @ 10-11 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 moving to 005 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/4) no meaningful southern hemi swell was our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing in the Gulf of Alaska Fri PM (11/7) with north winds 40 kts and seas building. On Sat AM (11/8) north winds to be 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 37N 152W aimed somewhat at Hawaii. in the evening the gael is to lift north with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 37N 148W aimed south targeting open ocean between CA and HI. On Sun AM (11/9) north winds to be 40 kts off Washington with seas 25 ft at 44N 142W aimed south and southeast targeting CA some. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts off Vancouver Island with seas fading from 24 ft at 49N 138W targeting North CA. Something to monitor.

And a gale is to be developing Fri AM (11/7) over and just off the North Kuril Islands with west winds 50 kts in 2 pockets and seas building from 27 ft at 44N 166E. In the evening a complex storms is to be set up off the North Kurils producing west winds at 45-50 kts and seas 34 ft at 45.5N 156.5E aimed east with 26-27 ft seas extending east to 47N 170E aimed east. On Sat (11/8) northwest winds to be 40-45 kts pushing off Kamchatka with seas 34 ft at 50N 173E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 40 kts just south of the West Aleutians with seas 28 ft at 50N 173E aimed east. Something to monitor.

On Sun AM (11/9) a new gale is to be developing over the dateline producing west winds at 45 kts with seas building. In the evening the gale is to build to storm status lifting east-northeast over the Northwestern Gulf with 50 kts west winds and seas 37 ft at 45.5N 169.5W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/10) west winds to be 55 kts with seas 40 ft at 50.5N 161.75W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 45-50 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas 43 ft up at 52.25N 154.75W aimed east. Tues AM (11/11) fetch is to be fading fast from 35 kts with seas fading from 34 ft at 51.75N 149.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

On Tues (11/11) a storm is to be winding up off the Kuril Islands with 50+ kts northwest winds and seas building from 38 ft at 47N 166.25E aimed east.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere -- Is the Change Coming?
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/3) 5 day average winds were moderate east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and weak to modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/4) Today moderate plus west anomalies were filling the west 60% of the KWGA to 165E. Moderate to strong east anomalies were over the dateline. West anomalies to hold into 11/6 then retrograding slowly west and right at the opening to it at 125E 11/17 holding through the end of the model run on 11/21. Moderate to strong east anomalies are to hold over dateline.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (11/4) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 175E to 172E due to east anomalies and the Inactive Phase of the MJO there. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 171W to 176W. The 24 degree isotherm was easing east moving from 130W to 124W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface over the entire equatorial Pacific. And cold anomalies were rebuilding at -3 at 145W with warming water at the thermocline reaching east to 130W but weakening. In all cool waters are rebuilding due to east anomalies and a recent Inactive Phase of the MJO. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deeper ocean at the thermocline (150 meters) east of 165W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 175W (previously 150W) and up to -10 cms in a pocket between the Galapagos to 140W and rebuilding in coverage and intensity. Heights were weakly above normal from 170E and points west of there. The cool pool is rebuilding over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/30) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 143W to Ecuador. Warm anomalies were west of 172W (previously 150W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/3) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 165E. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/3): Temps were warming weakly from the Galapagos to the dateline, likely the result of a building Active Phase over the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/4) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling some at -0.709. Previously temps had been steady at -1.00 (10/13-10/20) then had been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/4) Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.935 degs after falling to -1.087 (10/30) and had been hovering in this range since 9/15 . Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.6 (week of 10/29, 10/22 & 10/15). Previously temps were -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.46 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.63 (JAS), -0.48 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (11/4) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall hard to -0.95 briefly mid-Nov, rising -0.60 mid-Dec and technically neutral early Jan, -0.30 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to only -0.80 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in Dec then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.633 in OND (previous model run -0.623), then rising to -0.539 in DJF and 0.026 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.662 (-0.710 previous run) OND then rising to +0.443 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.602 NDJ (-0.526 previous run) rising to -0.019 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/4) the Daily Index was positive at 17.81 and has been rising since 10/20 and generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was rising to +12.97 and had been steady at +0.54 a month ago rising the past 26 days.
The 90 day average was rising at +6.36 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +3.78 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table