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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, November 4, 2023 1:04 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 11/6 thru Sun 11/12
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Gulf Swell Pushing to CA
Another Gale Right Behind- 2 Forecast for North Gulf/Dateline Region

Saturday, November 4, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 191 degrees. Water temp 81.1 (Barbers Pt), 80.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 9.7 secs from 329 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 9.7 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 10.5 secs from 275 degrees. Wind southwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 66.6 degs, 59.9 (Harvest 071), 63.5 (Topanga 103), 63.7 (Long Beach 215), 66.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 66.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.3 ft @ 10.2 secs from 283 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.0 ft @ 10.4 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 12.1 secs from 243 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 12.5 secs from 219 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 11.7 secs from 227 degrees. Water temperature was 59.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 10.2 secs from 276 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-10 kts (46026) and north 11-13 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.7 (San Francisco 46026), 57.2 (SF Bar 142), 59.7 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Saturday (11/4) in North and Central CA waves were estimated at waist high and lined up and clean but totally locked in fog early. Protected breaks were thigh high and clean and real soft but there was visibility. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the sets and lined up and real soft but clean with some intermixed warble. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and lined up and clean with no wind early. Central Orange County had sets at waist high plus and lined up and clean with no wind but mostly breaking only on the inside. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high and lined up and clean but with some texture on it early with good form. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but very soft. Oahu's North Shore had some chest to shoulder high peaks and clean with good form. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest windswell at thigh high and chopped from steady east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (11/4) the first in a series of small swells was hitting Hawaii and eventually bound for California. It was produced by a gale that developed in the Central Gulf Fri-Sat (11/4) producing 22-23 ft seas aimed mainly east before moving over north Vancouver Island in the evening. Another gale is forecast over the same area Sat-Sun (11/5) producing 23-25 ft seas aimed somewhat at Hawaii but mainly at the US West Coast. And perhaps another gale is forecast for the Central Gulf on Tues-Thurs (11/9) producing 26-27 ft seas aimed southeast with yet another forming over the North Dateline region tracking east Thurs-Fri (11/10) with up to 39 ft seas aimed southeast. This looks like a real Fall pattern and it's starting now.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Saturday (11/4) the jet was split in the west and weak but consolidated on the dateline tracking due east on the 38N latitude line and starting to impact North CA with winds 160-170 kts over the consolidated area forming a trough and supportive of gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to slowly but steadily push inland over North CA into Tues AM(11/7) continuing to support gale formation near the coast. And back to the west the jet is to be ridging hard north over Japan Mon-Tues (11/7) tracking up to Kamchatka then starting to turn to the southeast over the Bering Sea with winds 180 kts falling south and over the Central Aleutians. Beyond 72 hours that portion of the jet is to be digging out a trough over the Northern Gulf late Tues (11/7) through Thurs (11/9) supporting gale development with the trough eventually pushing inland over Washington. And late on Fri (11/10) another similar ridge is to set up over the Bering Sea falling southeast with winds 140 kts solid looking to produce yet another trough in the Northern Gulf beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (11/2) no swell was hitting either California or Hawaii. But swell is being generated from the first of a series of gales forecast for the Gulf (see First Small Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is to be tracking through the Gulf producing more swell (see Second Gulf Gale below).


First Small Gulf Gale
A gale started developing in the Central Gulf on Thurs PM (11/2) 700 nmiles north of Hawaii with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building. On Fri AM (11/3) the gale was lifting northeast with northwest winds 35 kts over a building area with seas 19 ft at 37.75N 146.25W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds off the CA-OR border and seas 23 ft over a small area at 41.75N 138.75W aimed east. On Sat AM (11/4) the gale was off the Pacific Northwest with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 22 ft at 45N 133W aimed east. In the evening winds to hold at 40 kts from the west just off of Vancouver Island with seas 25 ft at 49.5N 133.5W aimed east. The gale to move inland from there. Possible small swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (11/4) building to 3.4 ft @ 10-11 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (11/5) from 2.7 ft @ 8-9 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 moving to 350 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun AM (11/5) building to 6.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (7.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (11/6) from 4.8 ft @ 10-11 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 280 degrees


Second Gulf Gale
Starting Sat AM (11/4) a new gale is to be building over the Central Gulf with northwest winds 35 kts over a small area with seas building from 20 ft at 43N 159W aimed southeast. Fetch to fall southeast in the evening at 35+ kts with seas 25 ft at 40.75N 153W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/5) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts over a fading area in the Eastern Gulf with seas 22 ft at 38N 146.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to collapse with 19 ft seas at 40N 136W aimed southeast.

Oahu: Expect small sideband swell arriving on Mon AM (11/6) at 3.2 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (11/7) from 2.3 ft 2 10-11 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 340 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (11/7) peaking at 7.5 ft @ 13 secs (9.5 ft) early. Swell fading on Wed (11/8) from 7.0 ft @ 11 secs (7.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (11/9) fading from 4.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285 moving to 303 degrees


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sun AM (11/4) southwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA and up to 15 kts near Pt Conception. In the afternoon a front and southwest winds to build at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5-10 kts over Central CA. No windswell forecast. Light rain for all of North CA early down to the Golden Gate holding through the day. A new batch of rain for Cape Mendocino late evening.
  • Mon AM (11/5) the front impacts North CA with southwest winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest 10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front is to fizzle out with southwest winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. Light rain for all of North CA down to Santa Cruz early fading slowly through the day but holding over Cape Mendocino. Light snow to upper elevations of the Sierra near Tahoe
  • Tues AM (11/6) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to take over at 15+ kts for North Ca and mostly 20 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
  • Wed AM (11/7) northwest winds continue at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts from Pt Arena southward and 20 kts for all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and all of Central CA. No rain forecast.
  • Thurs AM (11/8) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino down to Santa Cruz then northwest 15 kts south of there early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and mostly 15 kts for Central CA. Light precip for Cape Mendocino overnight.
  • Fri AM (11/9) high pressure is to be just offshore with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15 kts mostly south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
  • Sat AM (11/10) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 34, 33, 15, and 15 inches respectively.

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 40-45 degrees through Sunday evening (11/5) then falling steadily down to 20-25 degs Mon-Tues (11/7), rising to 25 degrees and then up to 45 degs beyond Sun (11/12). A Fall pattern is setting up.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).


South Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (11/4) no swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours stating Tues AM (11/7) a small gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 49N 171W aimed southeast. Fetch building in coverage at 30-35 kts in the evening tracking southeast with seas 25 ft at 49N 164.5W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/8) the gale is to track east with 45 kt west winds and seas building to 25 ft at 49.75N 153.75W aimed east and southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 23-24 ft at 50N 147W aimed mostly east. The gale to dissipate and move east of the NCal swell window after that. Something to monitor.

On Wed PM (11/8) another gael is to develop half way from the Kurils to the North Dateline region with 45 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 48.5N 168.75E aimed east. Fetch is to build Thurs AM (11/9) as the gael moves over the North Dateline region with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 33 ft over a small area at 48.5N 179.5E aimed east. In the evening 45 kts west winds to continue over the North Dateline region with 35 ft seas at 50.75N 172.75W aimed east. Fetch fading Fri AM (11/10) from 40 kts with 33 ft seas at 50N 163W aimed east. In the evening residual seas are to be fading from 28 ft at 51N 152.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


El Nino Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #4, #5 and #6 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs reflect El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are warm and holding, and slightly expanding. And another Active Phase of the MJO is developing now (mid-Oct) likely starting to produce Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/2) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/4) Weak west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to build to very strong status over the core of the KWGA starting 11/6 holding till 11/17, then fading with east anomalies the last 2 days of the model run ending 11/20. .

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/3) A modest Inactive MJO was over the West KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO (cloud free air) is to be gone on days 5 and 10 of the model run, then rebuilding filling the KWGA on day 15 of the model run at moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with a very weak Inactive signal on day 15 of the model run. We think the dry air pattern is a result of the downward falling branch of the Walker Circulation impacting the surface at 120E producing dry west anomalies pushing towards the dateline on the equator pickup up moisture along the way. No change is likely anytime soon.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/4) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the West Indian Ocean. The forecast indicates it is to move to the Maritime Continent 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal racing east and over the East Pacific at modest status 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/4) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was indicated over the West KWGA today. The forecast has a weak Active Phase (wet air) tracking east and over the KWGA then moving east of the KWGA on 11/19. A weak Inactive signal (dry air) is to push through the KWGA 11/19-12/4. But another weak Active (wet air) pattern sets up over the KWGA 12/9 through the end of the model run on 12/14. The extreme weakness of this suggest an El Nino pattern is in play now and that none of the above will actually happen.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/3)
Today a neutral MJO was over the KWGA but with weak weak to modest west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast has west anomalies building to strong status 11/5-11/13. West anomalies are to fade at weak status through the end of the model run with a weak Active Phase suggested over the East Pacific 11/10-11/20 then turning Inactive over the same area 11/23 through the end of the model run. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 and are now at strong status today and forecast holding through 11/24 then moderating through the end of the model run. That coupled with strong west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring near 120E (Maritime Continent), likely the downward branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're into a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(11/4) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was approaching its peak over the KWGA but with weak to modest west anomalies in control. The weak Inactive Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 11/17 with weak to moderate west anomalies holding. The Active Phase is to build 11/30-12/30 with moderate west anomalies during the entire period filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase develops 12/17 in the far west KWGA then filling it through 1/23/24 with west anomalies slowly fading to moderate to weak status Jan 7 through the end of the model run while moving east centered at 175W. Also note that east anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and started peaking 10/15 forecast holding into 12/15, then moderating while pushing hard east on 12/17 into the West KWGA and holding through the end of the model run. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the Maritime Continent (120E) associated with the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest then more solid starting Sept 15, It started building strongly on 10/16 and is continuing to build today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward while easing east to 140W at the end of the model run. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building from here forward. This also suggests a rising air pattern associated with the upward branch of the Walker Circulation developing today on the dateline nd moving east to 140W in January. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 175W with 3 contour lines (starting 7/14). A 4th contour line developed on Nov 4. A 5th contour line is no longer forecast. The high pressure bias has dissolved and is no longer in the Pacific but started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour is no longer forecast. 7/18 was the start of a major positive change in the development of El Nino with advent of the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies and that momentum is growing stronger each passing day. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense and is to move east over the next 3 months.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/4) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 168W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 159W (previously 157W). The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 145W and looks like east winds are hitting it. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower from 39m up to 30m (25m earlier but at one point down to 65m) in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 172E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 with a building core of up to +3 degs anomalies centered at 162W pushing east in a continuous stream (at +3 degs) feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have formed a broad pocket of +4-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting from 141W (previously 138W). The warm pool in the east (originating from Kelvin Waves #6, 5, 4...) is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7 and growing in coverage some. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 160E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 3 deg anomalies from 175W with embedded +4 deg anomalies and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 121W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A steady stream of +1-2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting Kelvin Wave #8 is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 165E at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5-10 cm anomalies were in the east from 175E east to 95W with weak anomalies into Ecuador. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/30) warm water is building at +0.5 degs from 175E to Ecuador with a pocket of +1.00-1.50 deg anomalies between 178E to 144W. The full development of El Nino is starting with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and warm water building in the east and pushing east with a new Kelvin Wave in flight. But the demise of the warm pool in the west signals an eventual turn to La Nina (sometime next year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/3) The latest images depict a strong warm stream from Ecuador west out to 132W (previously 115W) and building in strength and coverage. And moderate warm waters continued west from there to the dateline. The warm pool is looking fairly solid and building steadily. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into Central Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place and building towards a strong status.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/3): A small thin stream of strong warming was aligned on the equator west to 110W and the neutral west of there. Perhaps some energy is being added to the warm surface pool. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (11/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets from Ecuador out to 120W and building west of there to the dateline. The classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline. Everything is now looking like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/4) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are building some at +1.707 but are generally declining after being up to +1.865 (10/26). Previous temps were down at +1.755 (10/22), down to +1.527 (10/6), up to +2.10 (9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/4) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at +1.363 after rising to +1.449 on 11/2 and +1.300 on 10/20 after falling down to +1.149 (10/11). . Weekly OISST were up at +1.6 this and last week (10/18 & 1025) +1.5 the 3 weeks previous (through 10/11) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

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CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug peaking at +1.6 degs in Sept.
Forecast (11/4) - Temps are to hold at +1.6 degs into mid-Nov, then rising fast to +1.70 degs in Dec and +1.90 degs in Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a slow fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.45 degs in mid-Nov (not likley) then rising to +1.60 degs in Dec and Jan. According to this version of the model we are building into a mid to upper level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.777 degs today and it's the 7th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.836 degrees in November then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.004 in Nov and +1.979 in Dec while the statistic models show +1.836 and +1.769 degrees respectively. The dynamic models are running a bit hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range with 7 of 17 models above +2.0 degrees.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/4) the Daily Index was positive at +1.46 and have been toggling between weakly positive and negative since 10/24, but were negative for 65 days prior (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising some at -6.09 after falling to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at -9.87 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -11.85 on 10/15, -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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