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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, November 4, 2021 12:34 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 3.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/1 thru Sun 11/7

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Dateline Swell Hitting CA
A Pause then More Forecast

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, November 4, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 12.1 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 80.1 (Barbers Pt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 12.2 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 11.7 secs from 255 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 61.2 degs, 61.3 (Topanga 103), 61.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 62.8 (Del Mar 153), 64.4 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 18.6 secs from 273 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.8 ft @ 6.4 secs from 256 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 9.3 secs from 265 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 20.5 secs from 265 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.8 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 6.0 ft @ 11.1 secs from 276 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temp 58.8 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.6 (46026), 59.2 degs (SF Bar 142), and 58.6 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (11/4) North and Central CA had waves at 2-3 ft overhead and lined up but warbled by modest south wind and mushed. Protected breaks had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with fairly clean conditions but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up but a little warbled and soft but still rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and clean but with some warbled in the water making things uneven. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and clean but soft and weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and clean with good form. North San Diego had surf at waist to near chest high and lined up but soft with glassy conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was still getting swell with waves 1-2 ft overhead and lined up but a bit uneven. The South Shore was near flat and clean. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell with waves chest high and chopped from east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (11/4) Hawaii was still getting swell from a gale that developed on the dateline Sat-Sun (10/31) with up to 33 ft seas aimed southeast at the Islands then fading Mon (11/1) north of the Islands with seas dropping fast from 27 ft. That swell is also starting to hit California and will be amplified the swell generated as the above gale reformed off the North CA coast with 24 ft seas. A bit of a pause to follow then a new gale is forecast for the Eastern Gulf on Thurs (11/11) producing 32 ft seas aimed directly at North CA. That said, the models have been highly unstable more than 3-4 days out.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (11/4) the jet was pushing east off Japan then ridging northeast some over the dateline but not reaching the Central Aleutians with winds building to 140 kts then falling southeast into a semi-permanent trough over the Central Gulf supporting gale development there before pushing inland over North CA. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to persist while easing ever so slowly east with it's apex just off the Pacific Northwest on Sun (11/7) still supporting gale formation. No change is forecast back to the west. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (11/8) the Gulf trough is to fade while moving inland with the jet weakly splitting over Japan then consolidating half way to the dateline with a new trough developing on the dateline being fed by 150 kts winds and offering good support for gale development. That trough is to ease east and build on Tues (11/9) focused over the Western Gulf and broad in coverage offering good support for gale development and deepening into Thurs (11/11) as the jet lifts hard north over the far West Pacific well up into the Bering Sea then falling hard south into the aforementioned trough. Good support for gale development in that trough. The jet is to be pushing firmly in to the Pacific Northwest starting Tues (11/9) and lifting gently north reaching British Columbia early on Fri (11/12) with much energy queued up off the coast there.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (11/4) swell was fading in Hawaii and starting to hit California from a gale previously over the Dateline/Western Gulf (see Dateline/Western Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Dateline/West Gulf Gale
A stronger system of tropical origins (formally Typhoon Malou off Japan) developed west of the dateline on Sat PM (10/30) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building 27 ft at 41N 173E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (10/31) Malou was falling southeast with 40-45 kt northwest winds over the dateline over a small area aimed southeast with 33 ft seas at 39.25N 179.5E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was fading while falling southeast at 35 kts with 29 ft seas at 36.5N 174.5W targeting Hawaii well. Fetch was fading north of Hawaii on Mon AM (11/1) at 30-35 kts producing 25 ft seas at 35.75N 167W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading from 30 kts in the evening just north of Hawaii with seas fading from 24 ft at 37.5N 160W aimed southeast. The gale was gone after that.

But residual northwest fetch is to push east on Wed AM (11/3) at 30-35 kts off California with 20 ft seas at 38N 140W aimed southeast. The gale redeveloped just off Cape Mendocino CA in the evening with 40 kts north west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 40N 137W aimed southeast (290 degs NCal). On Thurs AM (11/4) the gale was just off Cape Mendocino with 30 kt northwest winds and 22 ft seas just off the coast at 40N 130W aimed southeast (305 degs NCal).

Hawaii: Swell fading on Thurs (11/4) from 4.5 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.0-5.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (11/5) fading from 3.7 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees moving to 10-20 degrees on Thursday and beyond.

North CA: Swell arriving on Thurs (11/4) but the longer period elements of it are to be buried in more locally generated windswell building to 9.0 ft @ 13 secs later (11 ft). Swell continues on Fri (11/5) at 8.5 ft @ 12 secs early (10.0 ft). Secondary pure windswell energy to possibly arrive on Sat (11/6) building to 4.2 ft @ 11-12 secs mid AM (4.5 ft). Windswell continues on Sun (11/7) at 6.0 ft @ 11-12 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 270 degrees moving to 290 and then 300+ degs for the possible secondary pulse.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Fri (11/5) northwest winds are forecast for North CA early at 5-10 kts (southwest 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino) and and northwest at 15-20 kts from Pt Reyes to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast for North CA at 5-10 kts (south 15 kts for Cape Mendocino) and 15-20 kts from Santa Cruz southward. Rain for Cape Mendocino early but not tracking any further south.
  • Sat (11/6) south winds are forecast 10-15 kts for North CA early and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA from Monterey southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA down to Bodega Bay early maybe reaching the Golden Gate late and fading. Snow for Tahoe late afternoon.
  • Sun (11/7) north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early and fading in Central CA to 15-20 kts in the afternoon but 25 kts for Pt Conception. Rain for Cape Mendocino all day.
  • Mon (11/8) south winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and building rapidly to 30 kts mid-AM and northwest 5-10 kts for most of Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 35-50 kts for North CA and south winds 30 kts for the SF Bay area and south 10-15 kts for Central CA with a front pushing south from there while fading during the evening. Heavy rain for North CA south to Monterey Bay in the late afternoon holding through the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe late afternoon turning heavy overnight then fading in the early morning hours.
  • Tues (11/9) west winds are forecast for North CA and Central CA at 5 kts early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA. Light rain early for North and Central CA then clearing through the day. light snow fading for the Sierra early.
  • Wed (11/10) south winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5 kts down to the Golden Gate with northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds at 15-20 kts from Big Sur southward with light winds in between. Rain for Cape Mendocino holding through the day.
  • On Thurs (11/11) light winds are forecast for all of North CA early and north winds 20 kts for Big Sur southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA from Pt Arena southward and 15 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 25, 25, 19, and 6 inches respectively on 11/6 with more on 11/8.

Freezing level 10,500 ft through 11/5 then falling to 6,500 ft on 11/7 holding more or less there into 11/9 then rising to 12,000 ft or more by 11/10 and beyond. Very early season conditions.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Small swell from a gale previously under new Zealand is radiating northeast (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Mon AM (11/1) producing 32 ft seas in the evening at 58.5S 168.75E aimed northeast. Seas held at 32 ft on Tues AM (11/2) at 58.5S 178E aimed northeast. All is to be fading in the evening. Small swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/9) building to 1.2 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (11/10) at 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). residuals on Thurs (11/11) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/11) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building Fri (11/12) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) later. Swell holding on Sat (11/13) at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sun (11/14) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing the the Central Gulf on Sun PM (11/7) while falling southeast producing 30 kt west winds and seas building near 38N 150W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/8) the gale is to build with 35-40 kt west winds off Central CA and seas building to 16 ft at 39N 141W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to sweep east with 40-45 kts west winds impacting and just off North CA with 22 ft seas at 40.25N 129.5W aimed east. Secondary fetch is to be developing off British Columbia with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building. On Tues AM (11/9) only the secondary fetch is to remain at 45 kts from the northwest with seas 29 ft at 48.75N 138.5W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading just off the BC coast in the evening with seas 28 ft at 50.75N 133W just off North BC. Something to monitor.

Perhaps another gale is to spin up on Thurs AM (11/11) in the Central Gulf producing 50 kt west winds and seas 30 ft over a small area at 41.75N 152W aimed east. The gale is to lift east-northeast in the evening with 45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 44.25N 144.5W aimed east.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Now Stronger Below the Surface than Last Year
Summary - Cool subsurface water is building under the equatorial Pacific and stronger and broader in coverage than last year with no Kelvin Wave induced warm waters in sight. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the KWGA in later November and nearly filling the KWGA after that with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west in late Dec. The high pressure bias is in control of the dateline but is to ease east nearly out of the KWGA by Jan 2022. But it also seems likely cold surface waters are to hold well entrenched over the dateline through early Jan supporting bulletproof surface high pressure. The west wind anomalies forecast will likely not be enough to significantly effect the volume and depth of cold water building over Central Equatorial Pacific before Winter is over.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/3) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate plus strength east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/4) east anomalies were moderate plus over the entire KWGA and building. The forecast calls for strong east anomalies filling the KWGA centered just west of the dateline on 11/5 and holding through the end of the model run on 11/11. There's no sign of meaningful westerly anomalies in the forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/3) A neutral MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects a neutral pattern holding on day 5 of the model run with a weak Active Phase developing over the far west KWGA on day 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/4) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is forecast tracking to the East Maritime Continent at day 15 of the model run and very weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/3) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the Central Pacific. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to track into Central America on 11/11 with a weak Active Phase (wet air) developing over the KWGA on 11/8. The Active Phase is to steadily track east and into Central America on 12/5. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/3 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/3) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was building over the far West KWGA with modest east anomalies in coverage. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to be controlling the KWGA through 11/18 with east anomalies building to strong status during that window and controlling the KWGA through 11/24, then dramatically fading with a small finger of east anomalies remaining just west of the dateline through the end of the model run on 12/1. A strong Active Phase and west anomalies is to be poised over the Maritime Continent starting to enter the West Pacific 11/27 reaching 10% of the way into the KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/4 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was pushing over the KWGA with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to traverse the KWGA through 11/26 with east anomalies in control over the KWGA. A weak Active Phase is forecast developing 11/20-12/30 with west anomalies pushing through and filling the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 12/22 through the end of the model run on 2/1 but with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA till 1/15, then giving way to weak east anomalies. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias (1 contour line) is centered over the dateline and is hold while slowly building east to 120W on 12/20 then stalling there into mid-January. A second contour is forecast developing 11/4 holding through 1/15. A broad single contour low pressure bias is to develop 11/12 centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E then steadily moving east into the KWGA on 12/28 and then reaching to 160E at the end of the model run filling 60% of the KWGA. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is to slowly get shoved east as the Active Phase and west anomalies try to take root in the Western KWGA by Nov 26. The strength of this Winters La Nina is in doubt. But for now we are expecting the redevelopment of La Nina and it likely will hold through Winter.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back at 162E. The 28 deg isotherm line was holding at 176E. The 24 deg isotherm had retrograded west to 136W. Warm water has receded west and is holding position. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady but limited in coverage to the far West Pacific reaching east to 155W. All sensors are down at 140W. Cool anomalies were in control at -6 degs C at 125W down 75 meters filling the East and Central Pacific. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control at depth forming an impenetrable brick wall. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates no warm water east of 170W with a bulletproof bubble of cold water at -5C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface and into Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights were negative over the entire equatorial Pacific at -5 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between the Galapagos to 175E and with solid peak at -25 cms at 125W with broad area at -20 cms between 120W to 145W and -15 cms anomalies between 100W-150W. All positive anomalies were limited from 160E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina has made a return and stronger than last year. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina is stronger than last year (-2.5 degs C) and far larger in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/3) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator starting thinly at the Galapagos tracking west and building in earnest from 115W to 160W and weaker west of there. Cooling nearshore along Chile and Peru was fading. A homogenous area of warm water was holding from Ecuador west just north of the equator to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/3): Temps were warming along Chile and Peru. And temps were warming on the equator from 100W-120W with cooling temps from 130W to 150W.
Hi-res Overview: (11/3) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator weakly from the Galapagos to 110W then stronger out to 160W then weaker to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A cool outflow remains in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island. La Nina is making a solid resurgence focused over the Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/4) Today's temps were rising some to -1.045 after falling to -1.112 on 11/2, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/4) Today temps were rising some at -0.948 after falling to -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Temp have been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/2) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct. The forecast indicates temps to continue a dramatic fall from here forward dropping down to -1.75 later in November and holding into early Jan 2022, then pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.50 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.90 degs today, and are to fade to -0.91 degrees in Nov, then rising to -0.46 degs in Feb and neutral in April 2022. A solid return of La Nina is expected this Fall and early Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/4): The daily index was positive at +12.21. It previously peaked at +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was falling to +6.48 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +7.94 today after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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