Tuesday, November 2, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) : Seas were 3.6 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 19.4 secs from 318 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 80.2 (Barbers Pt).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.9 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 19.0 secs from 314 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 16.2 secs from 271 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 61.9 degs, 61.3 (Topanga 103), 61.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.0 (Del Mar 153), 64.0 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 9.4 ft @ 14.8 secs from 293 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 252 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.0 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 14.8 secs from 276 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 7.4 ft @ 15.0 secs from 296 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 8-10 kts. Water temp 57.7 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.1 (46026), 59.0 degs (SF Bar 142), and 58.5 (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (11/2) North and Central CA had waves at 3-4 ft overhead and lined up and clean but with a rather roguey quality to it. Protected breaks had sets up to 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and closed out but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean but soft and a little warbled. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and clean and softly peeling. Central Orange County had sets in the waist high range and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and clean with good form but weak. North San Diego had surf at shoulder to head high and real lined up if not closed out but glassy. Hawaii's North Shore was getting new swell with waves 10 ft and clean but a bit raw. The South Shore had a few sets at thigh high and clean but weak. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell with waves head high and clean with no trades blowing.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (11/2) swell was hitting California from a gale that developed over the Dateline then moved to the Western Gulf Fri-Sun (10/31) with 27-28 ft seas aimed east. And Hawaii was getting the leading edge of new swell from another gale that developed behind the previous one on the dateline Sat-Sun (10/31) with up to 33 ft seas aimed southeast at the Islands then fading Mon (11/1) north of the Islands with seas dropping fast from 27 ft. A bit of a pause to follow then a new gale is forecast for the Eastern Gulf on Mon (11/8) producing 45 ft seas aimed directly at North CA.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (11/2) the jet was split over Japan but consolidated just off the coast flowing zonally (flat west to east) on the 40N latitude line starting to building energy with winds to 140 kts over the far Western Gulf of Alaska then forming a weak trough over the Central Gulf offering limited support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push up to the Oregon coast on Wed (11/3) and impacting North CA in the evening while wind energy builds in the jet in the Western Gulf to 190 kts carving out a new trough over the Central Gulf on Thurs (11/4) offering good support for gale development into Fri (11/5) impacting the Pacific Northwest coast then. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (11/6) wind energy is to build again over the Western Gulf to 160 kts over a small area feeding development of a yet another trough in the Eastern Gulf on Thurs (11/4) but stalled with a stronger trough building in the Central Gulf on Mon (11/8) with 180 kt winds feeding it offering good support for gale development and pushing into the California coast on Tues (11/9). A potential AR (Atmospheric River) event might occur. At the same time on Tuesday another trough is to be developing over the dateline too being fed by 140 kts winds potentially offering support for gale development. A decent pattern is shaping up.
On Tuesday (11/2) swell was hitting California from a gale previously over the Western Gulf (see Western Gulf Gale below). And stronger swell was hitting Hawaii from a gale previously over the Dateline/Western Gulf (see Dateline/Western Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing fetch is forecast.
Western Gulf Gale
Tropical energy previously off North Japan on Tues (10/26) started developing as it pushed over the dateline Thurs PM (10/28) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 28 ft over a small area at 43.5N 177W aimed southeast. Fetch was building in coverage Fri AM (10/29) at 40 kts from the northwest targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast with seas 25 ft at 42N 168W aimed southeast. The gale tracked east in the evening with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a solid sized area and seas 26-27 ft at 42N 160W aimed southeast. Fetch holding Sat AM (10/30) at 35-40 kts aimed southeast and seas 26-27 ft at 44.5N 156W aimed southeast. The gale stalled in the evening and faded with 30-35 kts northwest winds fading in coverage and seas fading from 24 ft at 45N 155W aimed southeast. This system dissipated after that. Possible decent swell to result for HI and CA.
Hawaii: Residuals on Tues (11/2) fading from 4.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330-335 degrees
North CA: Swell peaking just before sunrise on Tues (11/2) and fading from 5.2 ft @ 14 secs early (7.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (11/3) fading from 3.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-296 degrees
Dateline/West Gulf Gale
A stronger system of tropical origins (formally Typhoon Malou off Japan) developed west of the dateline on Sat PM (10/30) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building 27 ft at 41N 173E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (10/31) Malou was falling southeast with 40-45 kt northwest winds over the dateline over a small area aimed southeast with 33 ft seas at 39.25N 179.5E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was fading while falling southeast at 35 kts with 29 ft seas at 36.5N 174.5W targeting Hawaii well. Fetch was fading north of Hawaii on Mon AM (11/1) at 30-35 kts producing 25 ft seas at 35.75N 167W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading from 30 kts in the evening just north of Hawaii with seas fading from 24 ft at 37.5N 160W aimed southeast. The gale was gone after that.
But residual northwest fetch is to push east on Wed AM (11/3) at 30-35 kts off California with 20 ft seas at 35N 140W aimed southeast. The gale is to redevelop just off Cape Mendocino CA in the evening with 40 kts north west winds and seas building from 23 ft at 40N 135W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (11/4) the gale is to be impacting Cape Mendocino and Southern Oregon with 30-35 kt northwest winds and 23 ft seas just off the coast at 41N 130.5W aimed southeast (305 degs NCal).
A secondary gale to follow off Oregon/Washington on Fri (11/5) producing 35 kt northwest winds resulting in 25 ft seas at 46.5N 132W aimed southeast. An additional pulse of swell to possible result for the US West Coast. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival later on Tues (11/2) pushing 8.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (12 ft). Swell fading on Wed (11/3) from 7.3 ft @ 14 secs early (10.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (11/4) from 4.5 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.0-5.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (11/5) fading from 3.7 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees moving to 10-20 degrees on Thursday and beyond.
North CA: Swell arriving on Thurs (11/4) but the longer period elements of it are to be buried in more locally generated windswell building to 8.1 ft @ 12-13 secs later (10 ft). Swell continues on Fri (11/5) at 8.1 ft @ 12 secs early (9.5 ft). Secondary energy to possibly arrive on Sat (11/6) building to 6.0 ft @ 12-13 secs mid AM (7.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (11/7) from 6.2 ft @ 11-12 secs (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 270 degrees moving to 290 and then 300+ degs for the possible secondary pulse.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (11/3) south winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early and south 5-10 kts down to the Golden Gate with northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds to build to 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to Bodega Bay with northwest winds 5-10 kts south of there and 15 kts over Pt Conception. Rain for Cape Mendocino starting late afternoon building south to the Golden Gate late evening.
- Thurs (11/4) south winds are forecast at 20-25 kts early for Cape Mendocino and southwest 10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon west winds are forecast for North CA at 5-10 kts and northwest at 15-20 kts for Pt Reyes down over Central CA. Rain for North California down to Monterey Bay early not moving any further south. Rain for the Sierra fading early evening.
- Fri (11/5) northwest winds are forecast for North CA early at 5-10 kts and and northwest at 20 kts from Monterey Bay southward to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast for North CA at 5-10 kts and 15-20 kts from Santa Cruz southward. Rain for Cape Mendocino early but not tracking any further south.
- Sat (11/6) south winds are forecast 10-15 kts for North CA early and northwest 10-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North Ca and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA down to Bodega Bay early maybe reaching the Golden Gate late and fading. A spattering of snow for Tahoe late afternoon.
- Sun (11/7) north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North Ca and 20-25 kts for Central CA early and fading in Central CA to 15-20 kts in the afternoon. Rain for Cape Mendocino early
- Mon (11/8) south winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and building rapidly to 40 kts mid-AM and south 5 kts for most of Central CA. In the afternoon west winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North Ca and south winds 30kts for the SF Bay area with a front pushing south from there while fading during the evening. Heavy rain for North CA mid-AM pushing south to Monterey Bay in the afternoon and Pt Conception in the evening. Snow developing for Tahoe late morning turning heavy late afternoon continuing through the evening.
- Tues (11/9) west winds are forecast for North CA at 15+ kts early and northwest at 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain early for North and Central CA building into Southern CA late AM then clearing in the late afternoon. Heavy snow for the Sierra early fading steadily through the day.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 30, 33, 23, and 14 inches respectively on 11/6 but most 11/8-9.
Freezing level 10,000-12,000 ft through 11/5 then falling to 7,500 ft on 11/6 dropping to 5,000 ft on 11/9-10 before rising to 10,000 ft on 11/11.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
Small swell from a gale previously under New Zealand is radiating northeast (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Tiny New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Mon AM (11/1) producing 32 ft seas in the evening at 58.5S 168.75E aimed northeast. Seas held at 32 ft on Tues AM (11/2) at 58.5S 178E aimed northeast. All is to be fading in the evening. Small swell is radiating northeast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/9) building to 1.2 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (11/10) at 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). residuals on Thurs (11/11) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/11) building to 1.1 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building Fri (11/12) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) later. Swell holding on Sat (11/13) at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sun (11/14) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing the the Central Gulf on Sun PM (11/7) while falling southeast producing 35-45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 19 ft at 43N 147.5W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/8) the gale is to build to storm status with 55 kt northwest winds and seas building to 36 ft at 44N 141.25W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 50kts from the west off North CA with 45 ft seas at 42.5N 133.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (11/9) the gale is to be fading but still producing 35-40 kt northwest winds impacting Cape Mendocino with a broad area of 33-34 ft seas poised just of the North CA coast. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Now Stronger Below the Surface than Last Year
Summary - Cool subsurface water is building under the equatorial Pacific and stronger and broader in coverage than last year with no Kelvin Wave induced warm waters in sight. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the KWGA in later November and nearly filling the KWGA after that with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west in late Dec. The high pressure bias is in control of the dateline but is to ease east nearly out of the KWGA by Jan 2022. But it also seems likely cold surface waters are to hold well entrenched over the dateline through early Jan supporting bulletproof surface high pressure. The west wind anomalies forecast will likely not be enough to significantly effect the volume and depth of cold water building over Central Equatorial Pacific before Winter is over.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/1) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate plus strength east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/2) east anomalies were moderate over the entire KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies building in strengthen to strong status 11/4 just west of the dateline and holding through the end of the model run on 11/9 filling the KWGA. There's no sign of meaningful westerly anomalies in the forecast.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/1) A neutral MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects a neutral pattern holding on days 5-10 of the model run with a weak Active Phase developing over the far west KWGA on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a neutral pattern holding through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is forecast tracking to the Maritime Continent at day 15 of the model run and very weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/1) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the Central Pacific. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to track into Central America on 11/11 with a weak Active Phase (wet air) developing over the KWGA on 11/4. The Active Phase is to steadily track east and into Central America on 12/1. A very weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 11/26 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/1) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was building over the far West KWGA with light east anomalies in coverage. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to be controlling the KWGA through 11/18 with east anomalies building to strong status during that window and controlling the KWGA through 11/20, then dramatically fading with a small finger of east anomalies remaining just west of the dateline through the end of the model run on 11/29. A strong Active Phase and west anomalies is to be poised over the Maritime Continent starting to enter the West Pacific 11/27 reaching 10% of the way into the KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/2 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was developing over the West KWGA with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to traverse the KWGA through 11/24 with east anomalies in control over the KWGA. A very weak Active Phase is forecast developing 11/20-12/12 with west anomalies trying to push into the KWGA but far weaker than previous forecasts. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 12/12 through the end of the model run on 1/30 but with weak west anomalies holding down the western 50% of the KWGA till 1/13, then fading. East anomalies are to hold the eastern KWGA from late December onwards. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias (1 contour line) is centered over the dateline and is hold while slowly building east to 120W on 12/20 then stalling there into mid-January. A second contour is forecast developing 11/4 holding through at least the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is to develop 11/12 centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E then steadily moving east into the KWGA on 12/28 and then reaching to 150E at the end of the model run filling 50% of the KWGA. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is to slowly get shoved east as the Active Phase and west anomalies try to take root in the Western KWGA by Nov 26. But now the model suggests that is to be a short lived event with east anomalies still holding down at least 50% of the KWGA beyond. This suggests redevelopment of La Nina and it likely holding through Winter.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 174E. The 24 deg isotherm had retrograded west to 138W. Warm water has receded west and continues that trend. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were steady but limited in coverage to the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W. All sensors are down at 140W. Cool anomalies were in control at -6 degs C at 125W down 75 meters filling the East and Central Pacific. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control at depth forming an impenetrable brick wall. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/25 indicates no warm water east of 170W with a bulletproof bubble of cold water at -5C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface and into Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/25) Sea heights were negative over the entire equatorial Pacific at -5 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between the Galapagos to 175E and with solid peak at -25 cms at 130W with broad area at -20 cms between 115W to 150W and -15 cms anomalies between 100W-150W. All positive anomalies were limited from 160E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina has made a return and stronger than last year. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina is stronger than last year (-2.5 degs C) and far larger in coverage.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/1) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator starting thinly at the Galapagos tracking west and building in earnest from 115W to 160W and weaker west of there. Cooling was steady nearshore along Chile and Peru. A homogenous area of warm water was holding from Ecuador west just north of the equator to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/1): Temps were warming along Chile and Peru. And temp were warming on the equator from 100W-120W with cooling temps from 120W to 150W.
Hi-res Overview: (11/1) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator weakly from the Galapagos to 110W then stronger out to 160W then weaker to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A cool outflow remains in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island. La Nina is making a solid resurgence focused over the Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/2) Today's temps were falling some to -1.112, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/2) Today temps were continuing to fall, down to -1.08, the lowest in a year. Temp have been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/2) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct. The forecast indicates temps to continue a dramatic fall from here forward dropping down to -1.65 later in November and holding into early Jan 2022, then pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.40 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.90 degs today, and are to fade to -0.91 degrees in Nov, then rising to -0.46 degs in Feb and neutral in April 2022. A solid return of La Nina is expected this Fall and early Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/2): The daily index was positive at +5.21. It previously peaked at +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was falling to +6.69 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +7.27 today after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table