Sunday, October 30, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.9 secs from 186 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 80.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 25 degrees. Water temp 80.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 6.3 secs from 258 degrees. Wind east at 6 kts. Water temperature 65.8 degs, 65.1 (Topanga 103), 65.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 68.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.1 (Del Mar 153), 69.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 307 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 15.7 secs from 240 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 16.6 secs from 223 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.0 secs from 273 degrees. Water temperate was 68.5 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 5.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 311 degrees. Wind north at 20-23 kts. Water temp 52.3 (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.1 (46026), 56.5 (SF Bar 142), 55.8 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 56.7 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Sunday (10/30) North and Central CA was getting North Gulf Swell at 2-3 feet overhead and lined up but pretty warbled from wind further out at sea but clean nearshore and foggy early. Protected breaks were estimated at 2 ft overhead and very lined up if not closed out and clean but somewhat warbled and fogged in. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and clean and lined up and somewhat warbled. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up with decent form but soft and clean with no wind early. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up but somewhat closed out and clean with light wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to maybe chest high and soft coming from the north and lined up somewhat. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up but soft and clean. Hawaii's North Shore had a few thigh high sets and clean and weak. The South Shore was getting some background southern hemi swell with sets to shoulder high and lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (10/30) Hawaii's north shore had no swell. But North California was getting still getting solid swell from a gale that developed in the Northern Gulf on Wed-Fri (10/28) producing up to 27 ft seas aimed southeast. And another gale developed while tracking east from the Northwestern Gulf on Sat-Sun (10/30) with 38-41 ft seas aimed east. After that a small and ill formed gael is forecast developing off the Kuril Islands approaching the dateline Mon-Wed (11/2) producing 27 ft seas aimed mostly south and dissipating before reaching the dateline. Beyond it might redevelop on the dateline Sat-Sun (11/6) but with all fetch aimed west. And a weak system might develop in the Northeastern Gulf Sat-Sun (11/6) falling south with seas 22-25 ft. Fall is trying to progress but not yet really getting traction.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (10/30) the jetstream was split over Asia then consolidating while approaching the dateline tracking east on the 48N latitude line with winds to 120 kts pushing into British Columbia forming a moderate trough and offering support for gale development over the Northern Gulf. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to get reinforced with wind energy at 140 kts on Mon (10/31) carving the trough deeper and reaching down the US West Coast before pushing inland over North CA late Tues (11/1) and still supporting gale development. Also on Tuesday wind energy is to briefly start pushing off Japan at 140 kts producing a trough there and offering support for gale development through Wed (11/2). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (11/3) that trough is to slowly lose organization and pinch some on Fri (11/4) just west of the dateline with support for gale development fading. The jet pushing off Japan is to start splitting then with most energy tracking north up into the Bering Sea offering nothing. But on Sun (11/6) winds to continue pushing off Japan at 120-130 kts reaching to the dateline perhaps offering hope beyond and a sign of the change in the MJO over the West Pacific.
On Sunday (10/30) swell from a gale previously over the Northwestern Gulf was hitting North and Central CA (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below)
Over the next 72 hours swell from another gale over the Northwestern Gulf is to be propagating southeast (see Another Northwestern Gulf Gale below).
And on Mon AM (10/31) a gale is forecast developing off North Japan producing north winds at 45 kts and seas 29 ft at 40.75N 164.25E aimed south. On the evening north fetch is to fade from 40-45 kts easing east with seas 27 ft at 42.75N 163E aimed south. North fetch to continue Tues AM (11/1) at 40 kts with seas 28 ft at 40N 164.5E aimed south. Fetch fading some in the evening at 35kts from the north with seas 26 ft at 37.5N 165.5E aimed south. Fetch fading Wed AM (11/2) from 35 kts with seas barely 24 ft at 38.75N 168.25E aimed south. the gale to dissipate from there. Low odds of sideband swell reaching the Hawaiian Islands.
Northwest Gulf Gale
A gale started moving southeast from the East Bering Sea down into the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Wed AM (10/26) with 30-35 kt northwest winds with seas building from 24 ft at 54N 145.25W (320 degs NCal). In the evening 40-45 kt northwest winds were building over the Northern Gulf with 24 ft seas at 54N 153.5W aimed southeast (318 degs NCal). Fetch held position Thurs AM (10/27) at 35-45 kts with 28 ft seas at 53N 149.5W aimed southeast (318 degs NCal). Fetch is to be fading in the evening at 35 kts from the northwest with seas 23 ft at 50N 145W (315 degs NCal). Fetch fading Fri AM (10/28) from 30-35 kts filling the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 23 ft at 52N 143W (322 degs NCal and shadowed) aimed southeast. Very north angled swell is possible for North CA but mainly focused on the Pacific Northwest. Will monitor.
North CA: Swell fading Sun (10/30) from 4.9 ft @ 13 secs (6.5 ft). Residuals Mon AM (10/31) fading from 3.6 ft @ 12 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315+ degrees
Another Northwestern Gulf Gale
A new gale developed just south of the Aleutian Islands over the North Dateline region on Fri PM (10/28) with 55 kt northwest winds partially exposed south of the Eastern Aleutians and seas building from 30 ft over a small area at 53.25N 170.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (10/29) the gale was tracking over the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kt west winds totally clear of land with seas 38 ft at 51.5N 157.5W aimed east (311 degs NCal). In the evening the storm was tracking east into the Northern Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 52.5N 146.75W aimed east (318 degs NCal). The storm was tracking east on Sun AM (10/30) in the Northern Gulf with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 54.75N 138.75W aimed east (328+ degs NCal and totally shadowed). The gale to move inland over Central Canada after that. Something to monitor.
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon later afternoon (10/31) possibly building to 5.9 ft @ 17 secs later (10 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell continues Tues AM (11/1) fading from 5.9 ft @ 15 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell continues on Wed AM (11/2) at 5.6 ft @ 13 secs (7.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (11/3) from 4.8 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (11/4) fading from 4.5 ft @ 10-11 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction 310-315+ degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Mon AM (10/31) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early fading to 15 kts in the afternoon.
- Tues AM (11/1) a front and northwest winds are to be pushing down the coast with light southwest winds ahead of the front and northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA early and 5 kts from the northwest for Central CA. Northwest winds to mainly be well off the coast in the afternoon and only 5-10 kts nearshore for North and Central CA. Rain sweeping south from Cape Mendocino early down to Morro Bay in the afternoon with snow developing for Tahoe in the later afternoon and sputtering in the evening and dissipating in the early morning hours.
- Wed AM (11/2) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA and up to 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Light rain remotely possibly along the coast for North CA early and possibly continuing only for Cape Mendocino through the day. Snow showers for the Sierra through the day.
- Thurs AM (11/3) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early, In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Fri AM (11/4) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA early and holding all day.
- Sat AM (11/5) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts early for all of North and Central CA and building to 15-20 kts for the area south of Bodega Bay in the afternoon.
- Sun AM (11/6) light northwest winds are forecast for North CA early and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain possible for Cape Mendocino early.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 12, 13, 7, and 3 inches all on Tues evening into early Wed (11/1-2).
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 12,000 ft on 10/30 then starting a steady decline falling to 2,000 ft on 11/2-11/3 then rising to 12,000 ft 11/4-5, then falling to 8,000 ft 11/6 and generally holding there. Fall is moving into the Sierra.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
No swell is hitting or poised to hit California or Hawaii in the next few days.
Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale previously over the South Central Pacific is to be propagating northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Central South Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Central South Pacific Thurs AM (10/27) producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 53.5N 170.75W aimed northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt southwest winds held with seas 26 ft at 51S 160.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (10/28) southwest winds held at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 26 ft at 49.25S 155.25W aimed northeast. More of the same in the evening with seas building to 27 ft at 52S 147.75W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (10/29) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a shrinking area with seas 25 ft at 50S 144W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Possible small swell to result for Hawaii and California. Will monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/2) building to 1.3 ft @ 16 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Thurs (11/3) to 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading some on Fri (11/4) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/5) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (11/6) fading from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on on Sat (11/5) building to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds some Sun (11/6) later AM to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (11/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 moving to 198 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on on Sat (11/5) building to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds some Sun (11/6) later AM to 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (11/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (11/8) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 moving to 196 degrees. This swell likely to be buried in northerly swell.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours perhaps a small gale is to develop just east of dateline on Sat-Sun (11/6) with 35-40 kt east winds and seas 25 ft seas 29 ft at 43N 170W aimed west. No swell is expected to result for the US West Coast of Hawaii.
And a small fetch is to develop in the Northern Gulf Fri PM (11/4) producing northwest winds at 40 kts and seas 23 ft at 55N 145W aimed southeast. Fetch is to fall south through Sat PM (11/5) with 23 ft seas at 50N 143W aimed southeast. Something to monitor but nothing special.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Summer is over.
Upwelling Phase Still Underway
West Anomalies to Own the Dateline Region 11/10 and Beyond
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically both subsurface and on the surface. But, the model suggest atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the KWGA and are to take root 2 weeks out, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning cautiously optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/29) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/30) Weak to modest east anomalies were covering 90% of the KWGA today with west anomalies in the far west KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for those west anomalies fading fast and weak to modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through the forecast period ending 11/6 but with a small pocket of west anomalies developing on the dateline 11/4 and holding beyond. The 2 week GFS model suggest east anomalies weakly holding over the KWGA through 11/2, then west anomalies return 11/3 holding through 11/7 then east anomalies trying to pulse weakly 11/10-11/14 before west anomalies return.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/29) A moderate Active Phase of the MJO was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active Phase fading on day 5 of the model run and neutral on days 10 and 15. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/30) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the West Pacific today and is quickly track east to the Atlantic 15 days out and weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east then retrograding back to the far West Pacific but exceedingly weak 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/30) A weak Active Phase (wet air) was over the West KWGA today. The Active Phase is to slowly ease east while losing energy reaching the East Pacific and then pushing into Ecuador on 11/29. A modest Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/14 and slowly tracking east almost reaching Ecuador at the end of the model run on 12/9.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/29) An Active signal was indicated today over the dateline but with modest east anomalies effectively filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for the Active Phase tracking east and dissipating over the East Pacific 11/11 with west anomalies starting to build over the West KWGA 11/4 reaching the dateline fairly strong there holding 11/11 then collapsing with solid east anomalies redeveloping on the dateline 11/12-11/19 then fading with weak east anomalies holding on the dateline. West anomalies to start building over the far West KWGA 11/12 filling 50% of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/26.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/30) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were filling the KWGA to the dateline at modest strength with the Active Phase of the MJO just past its peak over the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO lingering over the dateline and points east of there through 11/15 but then pulsing 12/9 and then 12/25 and holding through the end of the model run on 1/27. Weak west anomalies are to slowly be building east from 140E to the dateline through 11/18 and holding if not expanding coverage over the entire equatorial Pacific for the foreseeable future. East anomalies are to be relegated to a small area east of the dateline and then gone everywhere in the Pacific after 1/2 while building over the Maritime Continent starting 12/25. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold then collapsing on 12/1 with the primary contour gone on 1/26. The western edge of the high pressure bias is as far west today as it's going to be. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 12/4 reaching east to 150E at the end of the model run on 1/27. This is a big deal. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W are weakening with west anomalies taking over the KWGA on 11/7. And the High Pressure Bias is to dissipate in late Dev. East anomalies are to now develop over the Maritime Continent stating 12/10 and building beyond. It seems a full reversal of the pressure and wind pattern from the past 2+ years is to occur over the next 2 months. This suggests the full demise of La Nina is poised to begin. This would be a huge step forward, if it develops.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/30) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175E. The 26 degree isotherm was backtracking from 150W to 159W. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking to 125 today, previously at 119W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge stable at 152W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 135W and filling the area from 150W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/25 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 155W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 155W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/25) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 160W with a building core at -15 cms positioned between 120-140W with -10 cm anomalies holding from 90W to 150W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 158W to Ecuador and building in coverage and intensity. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If something doesn't change soon, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/29) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A pocket of very cool water was erupting between Ecuador to 90W. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Water temps appears to be warming over a broad area south of the equator but are still anomalously cold. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/29): A mix of mostly cooling water is on the equator in a thin string from Ecuador to 140W. The trend was towards cooling.
Hi-res Overview: (10/29) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 90W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading west of 100W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were steady at -1.677 after falling to -1.850 on 10/20 and falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps at -2.044 degs and toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were falling at -1.015 after falling to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps nosediving at -1.137 degs and falling hard the last 9 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (10/30) - Temps are to be falling to -1.25 degs mid-Nov then starting a farily steady rise in Dec hitting -0.75 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) mid-Feb 2023 and up to +0.45 degs in July approaching El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.05 in mid-Nov and then are to start pushing up to -0.65 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold in mid-Feb and rising from there forward to +0.45 degs in July. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.988 degs today. Temps to rise in Nov at -0.922 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.560 in Jan and -0.353 in Feb rising to +0.267 in June. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/30) the Daily Index was steady at +18.05 today. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising at +18.91 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling slightly at +15.34 previously at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table