BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, October 25, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (10/25) in North and Central CA surf was 8-10 ft and lined up coming from the northwest and warbled if not chopped from south wind early. Protected breaks had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and mostly closed out and fairly clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was 1-2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but with some underlying warble. In Ventura County waves were thigh to maybe waist high and lined up with decent form and clean when they came but generally pretty inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined up if not closed out breaking mainly on the beach with a few crumblers on the outer bar. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had rare sets at waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft and inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at waist high or so and lined up with decent form and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 2-4 ft overhead at top spots and real lined up if not a bit closed and clean but with strong offshore wind early. The South Shore had rare sets at knee to thigh high and lined up with decent form and clean but very soft early. The East Shore was getting east windswell at shoulder high and chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (10/25) California was getting fading swell originating from a gale that developed over the North Dateline tracking to the Northwestern Gulf Mon-Tues (10/21) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed east then fading in the Gulf Wed (10/22) with 24-25 ft seas. And that swell was being overrun by fresh swell originating from a gale that fell from the Northwestern Gulf to the Central Gulf Wed-Thurs (10/23) with 26-28 ft seas tracking a bit more to the southeast. Hawaii was getting sideband energy from both. A local gale was developing off the CA-Oregon border Fri-Sat (10/25) with 27-29 ft seas aimed southeast. A bit of a break is forecast and then a broad gale is forecast developing off the North Kuril Islands Wed-Thurs (10/30) tracking to the dateline with 24-25 ft seas targeting the Islands then rebuilding over the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (10/31) with to 33 ft aimed east and southeast. And a small gael is to precede it in the Central Gulf on Thurs (10/30) with 24 ft seas aimed east. A continuation of the modestly productive pattern seems likely.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (10/25) the jetstream was loosely consolidated in the west tracking east on the 45N latitude line with winds 120 kts forming a weak trough just west of the dateline then getting tightly consolidated on the dateline and points east of there to Oregon with winds building to 190 kts digging out a tight trough off the Pacific Northwest supporting gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the Oregon trough is to move onshore Sun (10/26) producing weather for the US West coast. The trough west of the dateline is to build on the dateline later Sun (10/26) pinching off some while tracking east over the Northwestern Gulf into Mon (10/27) supporting some degree of gale formation. And on Mon (10/27) in the west winds are to start building while lifting northeast off Japan reaching 170-180 kts Tues (10/28) then up to 210 kts on Wed (10/29) flattening out tracking due east over the North Dateline Region starting to support gale formation just due to wind speeds alone. Beyond 72 hours that stretch of wind energy is to be over the Gulf on Thurs (10/30) providing more generalized support for gale development. And on Sat (11/1) the pattern restarts with the jet ridging over the Northwest Pacific then falling hard south over the Western Gulf digging out at trough there being fed by 140 kts winds offering support for gale formation then lifting northeast up over Vancouver Island. The future continues to look interesting.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/25) swell was fading in California from a gale previously over the Dateline and Gulf (see Dateline Gale below). And swell from another gale was hitting Hawaii and the US West Coast (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell production of interest is forecast.

Dateline Gale
A small storm developed half way between the Kurils and the dateline Sun PM (10/19) with west winds 45 kts and seas 30 ft over a small area at 47.5N 169E aimed east. On Mon AM (10/20) west winds were 45 kts over the North Dateline region with seas 33 ft at 47.5N 177E aimed east and southeast. In the evening the gale tracked east over the dateline with west winds fading from 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 47.5N 175W aimed east. On Tues AM (10/21) fetch was fading while falling southeast over the Northwestern Gulf from 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 46.75N 166W aimed east and southeast. In the evening fetch is to move into the Central Gulf from the northwest at 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 46.25N 153.5W but 24 ft seas down to 44N 156W (295 degs NCal) aimed southeast. Fetch was fading Wed AM (10/22) from 30 kts with seas 24 ft at 49N 146.5W with 20 ft seas down to 43N 148W (294 degs NCal). Maybe some swell for mainly the US West Coast if this system forms and less shadowed.

North CA: Swell fading early Sat (10/25) from 6.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (9.0 ft) and being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 295-300 degrees

Gulf Gale
Another gale developed over the Northern Dateline region Tues PM (10/21) producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts and falling southeast and seas 24 ft at 48.5N 179W. On Wed AM (10/22) northwest winds to be 40 kts over a broadening area with seas building from 29 ft at 47.5N 169W aimed east. In the evening the gale raced southeast over the Gulf with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 45.75N 156W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (10/23) northwest winds to be fading from 30 kts over the Gulf with seas 24 ft at 45.75N 146.25W aimed southeast. Fetch and sea fading after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/25) at 4.1 ft @ 14 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading through the day. Residuals Sun (10/26) fading from 3.1 ft @ 11 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/25) AM at 6.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (9.5 ft) fading some later. Swell to be overrun by local swell beyond. Swell Direction: 300 degrees

Local CA Gale
A gale developed in the Gulf falling southeast Fri AM (10/24) with northwest winds 35-40 kts with seas 22 ft at 45N 151W aimed southeast. On Fri PM (10/24) the gale fell southeast with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 43.75N 142.75W aimed southeast (298.5 degs NCal). On Sat AM (10/25) the gale was just off the CA-OR border with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 29 ft at 43N 133.5W aimed southeast (306.6 degs NCal). The gale is to lift hard north while fading off North Oregon on Sat PM (10/25).

North California: Expect swell arrival on Sun AM (10/26) building to 9.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (12.0 ft) then fading through the day. Residuals fading from 5.8 ft @ 12 secs (7.0 ft) on Mon (10/27). Swell Direction: 299-307 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical activity of interest is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/25) swells from a new Zealand Primer Gale and a New Zealand storm were tracking northeast (see New Zealand Primer Gale and New Zealand Storm below). Otherwise no swell of interest from the southern hemi was hitting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing fetch is forecast.

New Zealand Primer Gale
A gale developed while pushing east from under New Zealand Tues AM (10/21) with 35 kts west winds and 29 ft seas aimed east at 53.5S 165.75E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 45 kts over a tiny area with 27 ft seas at 48.5S 179W aimed east. On Wed AM (10/22) fetch was fading from the southwest at 30+ kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 51.5S 177.75W aimed east. The gale faded out from there. Perhaps some sideband swell to result but whatever does develop will be buried in swell from the next and stronger system.

Possible New Zealand Storm
Another gale developed just off South New Zealand Thurs AM (10/23) with west winds 55 kts and 35 ft seas at 48.75S 178.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds were still 55 kts with seas building to 45 ft at 50.5S 170.75W aimed east. Fri AM (10/24) west winds were 45-50 kts with seas building to 47 ft at 49.25S 161.5W aimed east. On the evening. fetch was holding at 45 kts and seas 42 ft at 49S 152.25W aimed east and east-northeast. The gale is to track northeast Sat AM (10/25) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 44 ft at 50.25S 142.25W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale to lift northeast with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 41 ft at 48S 133.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (1026) fetch is to be fading in the Southeast Pacific from 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 37 ft at 47S 124.25W aimed northeast. If all this happen it will be the best storm of the 2025 summer season in terms of sea height production. Sideband swell possible for mainly Southern CA but Hawaii and Northern CA might see some energy as well. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/30) building to 0.9 ft @ 17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Fir (10/31) to 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/30) building to 0.8 ft @ 23-24 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds Fri (10/331) through the day to 1.6 ft @ 20-21 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell builds more on Sat (11/1) to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peaks Sun AM (11/2) at 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fades some Mon AM (11/3) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (11/4) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 209 moving to 200 degrees

North CA: Swell to be buried in northerly swell. But use the Southern CA swell profile as a rough guide. Swell peaks on Sun (11/2) at 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 209-197 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the Gulf on Wed PM (10/29) with 35 kts west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 43N 153W aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/30) west to southwest winds build to 40 kts off Oregon with seas 23-34 ft at 45N 145W aimed east (301 degs NCal). In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts off the PAcific Northwest with seas 23 ft at 45N 140W aimed east (305 degs NCal). Small precursor swell is possible for the US West Coast.

Starting Tues PM (10/28) a gale is forecast developing off the North Kuril Islands with 30-35 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 49N 162.25E aimed east. On Wed AM (10/29) the gale is to track east with 30-35 kt west winds over a solid area and seas 24 ft at 49N 168.75E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to be 35-40 kts over the dateline with seas 26 ft at 47.5N 177E aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (10/30) the gale is to be rebuilding in coverage and strength over the Northwest Gulf with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 23-25 ft at 45N-50.5N 166.25W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds to build to 40 kts solid with seas 31 ft at 49.5N 157.5W. On Fri AM (10/31) west winds to be 40 kts solid over the Northern Gulf with seas 33 ft at 50N 149.5W aimed east. The gael to fade and move east of the North CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere -- Is the Change Coming?
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/24) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/25) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates strong east anomalies holding over the dateline and KWGA through 10/28 then rapidly collapsing and pushing east while moderate west anomalies start moving into and over the West KWGA 10/28 building through 11/1-11/3 to 165E then retrograding just a little to 150E at the end of the model run on 11/10 and still moderate in strength. Moderate to strong east anomalies are to redevelop mostly east of the dateline during that same window but starting to fade at the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (10/25) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 175E to 172E due to east anomalies and the Inactive Phase of the MJO there. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 171W to 176W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding from 122W to 126W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 170E. And cold anomalies down to -2 degrees were moving east fast at 100W with warming water at the thermocline reaching east to 130W. On all cool waters at depth seems to be fading. We'll see how long it holds given strong east anomalies at the surface now. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/20 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deeper ocean at the thermocline east of 145W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/20) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 140W (previously 170W) and up to -10 cms in two pockets between 105W to 125W and quickly fading in coverage and intensity. Heights were weakly above normal from 170E and points west of there. The cool pool is fading over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/20) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 132W to 87W. Warm anomalies were west of 150W. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/24) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 170E. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/24): Temps were cooling from the Galapagos to 140W and neutral west of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/25) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps rising to -0.680 but had been generally steady at -1.00 the past week and had been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/25) Today's temps were steady at -1.079. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.6 (week of 10/15). Previously temps were -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.46 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.63 (JAS), -0.48 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (10/24) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall hard to -0.95 briefly mid-Nov, rising -0.70 mid-Dec and technically neutral early Jan, -0.25 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) late Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to only -0.85 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in late Dec then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.633 in OND (previous model run -0.623), then rising to -0.539 in DJF and 0.026 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.662 (-0.710 previous run) OND then rising to +0.443 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.602 NDJ (-0.526 previous run) rising to -0.019 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/25) the Daily Index was positive at 24.62 and has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was rising to +8.12 and has been generally falling from +2.60 a month ago rising the past 17 days.
The 90 day average was rising at +4.12 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +3.27 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table