Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 12.9 secs from 212 degrees. Water temp 81.0 (Barbers Pt), 80.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 7.8 secs from 59 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 315 degrees. Water temp 80.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 221 degrees. Wind south-southwest 2-4 kts. Water temperature 66.4 degs, 61.2 (Harvest 071), 65.3 (Topanga 103), 66.9 (Long Beach 215), 64.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 62.4 (Del Mar 153), 63.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.6 ft @ 13.6 secs from 274 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 218 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.1 secs from 215 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.4 ft @ 12.3 secs from 208 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.9 secs from 215 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.7 secs from 202 degrees. Water temperature 66.6 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 7.9 secs from 322 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), N 2-4 kts San Francisco (46026), Buoy Down (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 12 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 59.0 (San Francisco 46026), 61.0 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 58.8 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (10/17) in North and Central CA surf was head high and lined up coming from the northwest and clean but with some underlying lump and a bit closed out. Protected breaks had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up if not closed out and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high plus on the sets and weakly lined up and soft with decent form and clean early. In Ventura County waves were waist high and lined up with good form and real clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined if not closed out and clean early all breaking on the inner bar nearly on the beach. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high plus and lined up with decent form and pretty looking mainly from light offshore wind. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form. The South Shore had rare sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up with decent form and clean early. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from moderate plus east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (10/15) Hawaii's North Shore continued getting swell originating from a another gale that developed Sat (10/11) off the Kuril Islands with 24 ft seas tracking east into Sun (10/12) then faded before reaching the dateline. For the most part California was getting no swell of interest other than minimal background energy from the above system. Looking forward a small gale developed and tracked from the Northwestern Gulf into the North Gulf Tues-Thurs (10/16) with seas building to 32 ft aimed east. Swell is poised for California and the Pacific Northwest. A small gale is forecast developing in the Gulf tracking east Fri-Sat (10/18) with seas building to 31 ft targeting the US West Coast well. And of more interest is a small storm forecast developing just west of the dateline tracking northeast to the Northern Gulf Sat-Mon (10/20) with up to 44 ft seas aimed east. And another gale is forecast developing over the North Dateline tracking to the northwestern Gulf Mon-Tues (10/21) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed east. More activity looks possible beyond. Down south we are now monitoring the South Pacific on an exception basis.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (10/17) the jetstream was consolidated tracking solidly east across the North Pacific on the 45N latitude line with winds 150 kts with a trough off the Kurils and another over the Northwestern Gulf both supportive of gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the Northwestern Gulf is to build while pushing east into the Central Gulf on Sat (10/18) being fed by 170 kts winds offering good support for more gael development before pushing inland over Washington and Oregon on Sun (10/19). The Kuril trough is to build while tracking east finally getting decently developed on Sun (10/19) being fed by 160 kts winds over the Northwestern Gulf offering decent support for gale formation pushing to the North Gulf on Mon (10/20) then fading. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (10/20) the jet is to be consolidated and solid tracking east-northern from North Japan the whole way across the Pacific into Washington with winds 160-170 kts but with no troughs indicated until Wed (10/22) when winds build to 180 kts off North Japan feeding development of a generalized trough over the Gulf and deepening Thurs (10/23) offering support for gael formation there. Winds to build to 190+ kts over the dateline Fri (10/24) falling into a steepening trough if not starting to pinch off just off Cape Mendocino possibly setting up weather for North CA beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (10/17) swell was still hitting Hawaii originating from a weak gale previously off the Kurils (see Weak Kurils Gale below). Another gale developed tracking east over the Northwestern Gulf targeting the US West Coat (see Northwest Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Fri AM (10/17) a low pressure system was developing in the Western Gulf of Alaska with 30-35 kt west winds over a small area trying to get traction while tracking east with seas building from 19 ft at 46N 173.5W aimed east. In the evening it is to build over the Central Gulf with west winds mostly 35 kts and seas 20t over an elongated area roughly centered at 49N 152.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (10/18) the gale is to start developing in earnest with northwest winds 45 kts well off Vancouver Island and seas 28 ft at 50N 148W (312 degs NCal) and shadowed relative to the SF Bay Area. In the evening the gale is to move up to the Canada Coast with northwest winds fading from 35-40 kts and seas 30 ft at 47.5N 140W aimed southeast (313 degs NCal). On Sun AM (10/19) fetch is to be fading just off Vancouver Island at 30 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 46N 135W aimed southeast (316 NCal and mostly shadowed). Something to monitor.

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Mon (10/20) building to 7.6 ft @ 15 secs late AM (11.0 ft) and likely smaller in the SF Bay Area. Residuals on Tues AM (10/21) fading from 5.0 ft @ 12 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310-316 degrees

Weak Kuril Gale
On Sat AM (10/11) a weak gale developed just off the North Kuril Islands with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 46N 162E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds held position at 30-35 kts from the Kurils but extending east to the dateline with seas 24 ft at 46.75N 162.75E aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (10/12) west winds held at 30-35 kts from the Kurils to the dateline with seas 23 ft south of the Aleutians focused at 47N 164E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 201 ft at 48N 170E aimed east. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor. Swell possibly to tag on to the end of swell from the Kuril Gale (see above).

Oahu: Swell fading some on Fri (10/17) but holding steady through the day at 3.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (10/18) fading from 3.4 ft @ 13 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

Northwest Gulf Gale
On Tues AM (10/14) a gale developed over the far Northwestern Gulf with west winds 40-45 kts and seas building. In the evening the gale was just south of the Eastern Aleutians with 45 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 47.75N 173.75W aimed east. The Jason-3 satellite made a pass over the west quadrant of the gael at 06Z Wed (10/15) and reported seas 31 ft (15 reading average) with a peak reading of 33.4 ft where the model suggested seas were 30 ft. The model was on track. On Wed AM (10/15) the gale was building in coverage some south of the Eastern Aleutians with west winds 35-40 kts over a decent size area with seas 31 ft at 49.5N 165.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east just south of Alaska with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 31 ft at 52.25N 161W and still in the NCal swell window (310.5 degs). Fetch held Thurs AM (10/16) in the Northern Gulf from the west at 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 53.5N 153,5W aimed east and just east of the NCal swell window (316.8 degrees). In the evening the gale was fading in the Northern Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 28 ft at 54.75N 146.5W targeting only the Pacific Northwest.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/18) building to 4.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell fading Sun AM (10/19) from 4.4 ft @ 14 secs (6.0 ft) slowly dropping through the day. Residuals fading early Mon (10/20) and likely being over taken by new swell. Swell Direction: 305 moving to 315 degrees

Tropical Update
On Mon AM (10/13) Typhoon Nakri was positioned 300 nmiles east of Tokyo Japan tracking east with winds 65 kts and seas 30 ft at 33N 142,75E (wave model suggest 41 ft). That is 3068 nmiles from Hawaii on the 296 degree path. Nakri continued east pushing half way to the dateline Wed AM (10/15) with winds fading from 35 kts and seas forecast at 20 ft at 33N 170W aimed east.

Oahu: Small swell is likely to reach Hawaii Sat PM (10/18) at 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) and buried in other fading swell. Swell Direction 296-298 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (10/18) a weak gradient is to be fading over Cape Mendocino producing northwest winds 15-20 kts there and northwest winds 5-10 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception. In the afternoon the gradient is gone with light northwest winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts south of there to Pt Conception. Windswell fading fast. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (10/19) a front is to be building off North CA with west winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast. Showers for Cape Mendocino early then clearing.
Mon AM (10/20) a weak gradient set up with northwest winds 20-25 kts for most of North CA and 1northwest 10 for Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient lift north with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. Windswell building some. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (10/21) northwest winds to be 20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (10/22) the gradient dissipates with northwest winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA. No windswell forecast. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (10/23) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. Northwest winds to be 10 kts in the afternoon. No windswell forecast. A weak front is to be over South Oregon stationary with no precip for CA.
Fri AM (10/24) southwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. No windswell forecast. A front and rain is to be stationary just barely north of the CA-OR border.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temperature to be 45-50 degs through Tues (10/21) falling to 35-40 degs Wed (10/22) back to 40-45 degs Thurs (10/23) then falling steadily from there to 30 degs on Sun (10/26). Maybe 11 inches of snow at Palisades Tahoe Sat-Sun (10/26).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Friday (10/17) no swell of interest from the southern hemi was hitting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri AM (10/17) low pressure was tracking east off Japan bound for the dateline. In the evening the low is to be at gale status positioned just west of the dateline lifting east-northeast with northwest winds 35-40 kts with seas building. On Sat (10/18) the gale is to be over the dateline with south winds 45-50 kts and seas trying to develop but having issue due to no fetch in the gales northwest quadrant and the gales fast forward speed. In the evening the gale finally gets organized building to storm status with northwest winds 55 kts and seas 30 ft at 45.5N 173.25W aimed east. On Sun AM (10/19) the storm is to be over the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 55-60 kts solid over a small area and seas 43 ft at 48.25N 163.5W aimed east (303 degs NCal). In the evening the gale is to push east with 45 kt west winds and seas 42 ft at 49.75N 154W aimed east. By Mon AM (10/20) the gale is to be fading over the Northern Gulf with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 35 ft at 50N 145.5W aimed east. The gale to fade after that. This is a big downgrade in regards to strength and positioning compared to previous model runs. Something to monitor for the US West Coast.

Theoretically another small storm is to be develop half way between the Kurils and the dateline Sun PM (10/19) with west winds 45-50 kts and seas 32 ft over a small area at 48N 168E aimed east. On Mon AM (10/20) west winds to be 45 kts over the North Dateline region with seas 35 ft at 48N 175E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east over the dateline with west winds fading from 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 48.5N 176W aimed east. On Tues AM (10/21) fetch is to be fading over the Northwestern Gulf from 30-35 kts with seas 29 ft at 49.25N 165W aimed east. Maybe some swell for mainly the US West Coast if this system forms.

Remnant energy from the above system is to fall hard southeast on Tues PM (10/21) sweeping through the Gulf producing 22 ft seas at 45.25N 153W Wed AM (10/22) producing more swell for the US West Coast.

There's some indications of a broader system developing in the Central Gulf on Fri (10/24).

Beyond 72 hours the model suggests no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere...Yet
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/16) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/17) Today mostly modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through 10/19, then building to strong status over the dateline 10/20 through 10/28 then rapidly collapsing to neutral 10/29. strong west anomalies are forecast in the far West KWGA starting 10/30 building through the end of the model run on 11/2. Modest east anomalies are to redevelop most east of the dateline during that same window.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/16) Currently an Inactive MJO (dry air) was indicated filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO (dry air) continuing over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run then fading and nearly out on day 10 with the Active Phase (wet air) filling the KWGA on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates the exact same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/17) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the West Indian Ocean. The statistic model has tracking east moving to the East Maritime Continent at modest strength 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the same ting but strength only weak 15 days out and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/16) Today mostly east anomalies were filling the KWGA with Inactive MJO contours over the West KWGA. The forecast has the Inactive Phase pushing east to and over the dateline 10/23 and holding there to 10/30 with strong east anomalies filling the Central KWGA during that window. After that east anomalies are to weaken to weak status limited to the dateline. Active Phase contours are to reach east into the West KWGA 11/3 holding through 11/11 with weak west anomalies pushing east half way across the KWGA to 150E holding till the end of the model run 11/13. It looks like the MJO is to wake up over the next week with both the Inactive and then the Active phases pushing east into the West Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today an Inactive MJO contour was over the West KWGA with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the modest Inactive MJO tracking east through 11/6 with moderate east anomalies in control during that window and strong east anomalies embedded in it from 10/20-10/27. On 10/26 the Active Phase of the MJO is to take over through 12/23 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA and pushing east from there into the East Pacific starting 12/8 and holding beyond filling the Equatorial Pacific. A weak Inactive pattern is indicated setting up 11/20-12/6 but with west anomalies filling the KWGA and building east over the dateline. Another weak Inactive Phase to follow 12/14 through the end of the model run on 1/14/26 but with moderate west anomalies in control of the Equatorial Pacific. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 150E and is forecast holding there through 12/8 then pushing east from there reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to hold there through 12/6 then retrograding with the high pressure bias gone by 12/30. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are stationary now but the low pressure bias is to start pushing east early Dec reaching near the dateline at the end of the model run with the high pressure bias dissipating. This is a major change in the right direction.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (10/17) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east moving from 173W to 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding from 120W to 124W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 170E. And cold anomalies down to -2 degrees were at 140W at depth at the thermocline level and cool across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/10 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 160E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep thermocline east of 165W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/10) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to the dateline and up to -10 cms between 105W to 130W (rising from -15 cms a few days ago) and appear to be weakening. Heights were weakly above normal from 175E and points west of there. The cool pool is steady over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/10) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 138W to 92W. Warm anomalies were west of 155W. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/16) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Ecuador to 175E. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/16): Temps were mostly neutral from Ecuador to 135W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/17) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were -1.072 and have been steady the past few days and have been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/17) Today's temps were steady at -0.960. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at -0.3 as of 10/8. Previously temps were -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.46 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.63 (JAS), -0.48 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (10/17) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall down to -0.80 briefly in Nov, rising -0.65 mid-Dec and technically neutral late Dec, -0.20 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.1) in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to only -0.75 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in late Dec then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.623 in OND (previous model run -0.406), then rising to -0.501 in DJF and 0.013 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.710 OND then rising to +0.389 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.526 NDJ rising to -0.088 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast falling to weak La Nina in Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/17) the Daily Index was positive at 1.09 and has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was falling weakly at +4.20 and has been generally falling from +5.42 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling at +3.70 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +3.92 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.