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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: October 15, 2013 10:07 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
Swell Potential Rating = 1.5 - California & 2.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 10/14 thru Sun 10/20
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Kamchatka Pulse Pushing Southeast
Stronger Storm Modeled

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.


Note: NDBC has no immediate.cgian to r.cgiace or repair any non-operational buoys due to funding shortages and the sequester. Expect inoperable buoys to remain off-line for the 2013-2014 winter season. Even if NOAA is fully funded in 2014 (unlikely), maintenance of the buoys will likely not start occurring till at least late Spring of 2014. 

Current Conditions
On Saturday
(10/12) North and Central CA surf was up to chest high at top spots and clean but a little warbled and weak. Down in Santa Cruz surf was knee high or so with rare sets to waist high and clean but very inconsistent - small southern hemi energy occasionally showing. In Southern California up north waves were rarely thigh high and clean but weak.  Down south southern hemi swell was fully hitting with sets chest high.cgius and lined up with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was getting north windswell at thigh to maybe waist high and clean. The South Shore was flat and clean. No report was available for the East Shore.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
In the North Pacific a gale formed Mon (10/14) off the North Kuril Islands producing 22 ft seas but faded fast before even reaching the dateline. Maybe a pulse of small swell for Hawaii. Of more interest is a tropical system in the far West Pacific currently turning north and forecast to track northeasterly just off the coast of Japan, reforming near Kamchatka on Thurs (10/17) with sea building to 48 ft while turning east with seas down to 41 ft over the dateline Fri (10/18), then dissipating. Hawaii to fare best if all this comes to pass with decent swell possible for Calfiornia. But it's way to early to believe any of this yet.      

The South Pacific is quickly moving into hibernation with no swell producing fetch forecast. 

Details below...

Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Jetstream  - On Tuesday (10/15) a pocket of strong wind was building flowing just off the Kuril Islands at 200 kts falling into a small trough and weakening near the dateline, then ridging hard north up into the East Bering Sea on into Alaska. This configuration was supporting low pressure near the dateline with high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska. Over the next 72 hours the strong winds over the Kurils are to start ridging north still at 190 kts then falling hard south on the dateline with those winds spilling from the top of the ridge into a pinched trough just east of the dateline late Wed into Thurs (10/17).  Some support for gale development indicated. Beyond 72 hours the pinched trough east of the dateline is to push south to a point just north of Hawaii and in the Western Gulf Fri-Sat (10/19) but getting cut off, with most energy bypassing it to the north flowing from the dateline east up into Alaska. Some support for gale development possible, but not much. Another trough is forecast forming on the dateline Mon (10/21) with 160 kt winds falling into it but pinching off pretty fast. At least there's no signs of a .cgiit flow developing, but there's no long lasting and energetic troughs projected either. 

Surface Analysis  -  On Tuesday (10/15) high pressure at 1032 mbs was over the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska moving inland over Canada with a light winds pattern over the Gulf and most of the East Pacific. Low pressure was circulating in the Bering Sea landlocked with no fetch extending south of the Aleutians. High pressure at 1032 mbs was well east of North Japan with Typhoon Wipha tracking north off Southern Japan and accelerating. No swell producing fetch was occurring other than tiny sideband energy possibly radiating east from Wipha.  Small swell from a low over the Northern Dateline was starting to hit Hawaii (see North Dateline Low below). Also small swell from a gale previous off Kamchatka was pushing towards Hawaii (see Kamchatka Gale below). 

Over the next 72 hours the remnants of Typhoon Wipha are to be tracking north-northeast just off Northeastern Japan Wednesday (10/16) with west winds to 50 kts but getting little traction on the oceans surface aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/17) the gale to turn east just off Kamchatka and just south of the Western Aleutians. Winds building to 55 kts with seas increasing to 46 ft at 50N 165E (323 degs HI, 308 degs NCal).  50 kt west winds to hold south of the Aleutians into the evening as the gale approaches the dateline with the core in the Bering Sea generating 46 ft seas at 50S 173E (329 degs HI, 307 degs NCal). Friday AM (10/18) the gale to continue east with a decent sized area of 40 kt west winds continuing south of the Aleutians with 41 ft seas forecast at 48N 179W (heading mostly east of the 335 deg path to HI, 303 degs NCal).  Fetch fading in the evening with 35-40 kts west winds fading just south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas fading from 37 ft at 49N 170W (305 degs NCal). The gale is to be gone Sat AM (10/19) with winds 30 kts or less over the Northwestern Gulf with seas dropping from barely 30 ft at 50N 162W (307 degs NCal). In all this is to be a reasonably powerful little system but positioned too far north and taking a easterly heading that doesn't push optimal energy down the great circle paths to Hawaii.  The northward and distant position also doesn't favor Northern CA.  Still, it's the best thing so far this Fall (which isn't saying much). Rideable long period swell is possible if all develops as forecast. It's something to monitor.          


North Dateline Low
Low pressure built over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians Friday (10/11) with a small area of 30-35 kts southwest and northwest winds developing.  No seas of interest developed yet. Late Friday (10/11) the low continued generating a better defined area of 30-35 kts northwest winds over a small area resulting in a tiny area of 18 ft seas at 48N 180W targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. By Sat AM (10/12) 19 ft seas were at 47N 177W, but were gone 12 hours later. Maybe a tiny pulse of 11-12 sec energy to results for Hawaii with luck. 

Hawaii:  Expect swell arrival Tues afternoon (10/15) to 3 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft). residual fading on Wed AM (10/16) from 3.5 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4 ft).  Swell Direction: 340 degrees 

NCal:  Small swell to arrive late Wed (10/16) at 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft faces). Swell peaking Thurs AM (10/17) at 2.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (3 ft) . Swell Direction: 305 degrees  

Kamchatka Gale
broad low pressure system started developing off the Kuril Islands on Mon AM (10/14) with 35 kt west winds building in it's southwest quadrant and seas to 19 ft at 43N 160E and 24 ft up at 51N 168E and slowly fading while tracking east into the evening with winds down to 30 kts and seas 20 ft at 51N 170E. On Tues AM (10/15) 30-35 kt northwest winds barely were reaching south of the Aleutians near the dateline with 19 ft seas resulting at 50N 177E. On last patch of 18 ft seas to hold in the evening at 50N 176W before this system dissipates. Possible tiny 13-14 sec period swell for Hawaii and maybe dribbles for the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival late on Friday (10/18) with swell to 3.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft faces).  Swell building Saturday (10/19) to 5.5 ft @ 12 secs late (6.5 ft faces). Swell fading Sunday from 6 ft @ 11 secs (6.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 335 degrees. 

NCal:  Small swell to arrive Sun (10/20) building to 3.0 ft @ 13 secs mid-day (4 ft faces) and very inconsistent. Swell continuing Mon (10/21) at 3 ft @ 12 secs (3.5 ft faces).  Very inconsistent. Swell Direction: 305-308 degrees   


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Typhoon Wipha formed Sat AM (10/12) about 1000 nmiles south-southeast of Kyoto Japan with winds 65 kts and tracking northwest. This motion continued with slow strengthening occurring. Winds peaked at 110 kts Sun PM (10/14) 750 nmiles south of Kyoto then Wipha made a turn to the north-northeast and northeast with forward speed accelerating. As of Tues AM (10/15) Wipha was 300 nmiles south of Kyoto with winds down to 75 kts.  This system is to skirt the Northeast Japan coast on Wednesday (10/16) with it's energy being sheared and sucked into a developing gale just east of Kamchatka.  See the Short Term forecast for details.       

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/15) high pressure at 1030 mbs was locked over the Canadian Coast forming a very weak pressure gradient over North CA with north winds 20 kts  making for small north local windswell. That gradient is to dissipate Wednesday as a low pressure tries to develop north of Hawaii well off the Oregon coast. A light wind regime is forecast nearshore and is to hold through Saturday (10/19). Sunday high pressure at 1024 mbs is to redevelop off Oregon forming a very weak gradient to maybe 15 ks off Oregon into Monday, but then eroding as low pressure builds in the the Gulf and a dead local windswell pattern takes hold of California. A typical Fall pattern is to be  setting up.              

South Pacific

Surface  - On Tuesday (10/15) no swell producing weather systems were in.cgiay.  Over the next 72 hours no swell producing gale activity is forecast aimed up into our forecast area. 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours things to settle down till maybe Tues (10/22) when another tropical system is to be in.cgiay following a similar track to Wipha and a gale is to race off the Kuril Islands and starting to build on the dateline. Plus another small gale is to developing in the Gulf.  None of this is guaranteed, but, for the first time in a very long time, this almost hints of a normal Fall pattern.  

Note: The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equatorial Pacific it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slack if not an outright reversal of trade winds and enhanced precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the.cgianet. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to .cgiit resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

As of Tuesday (10/15) the daily Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell to -0.84. The 30 day average was falling at 6.21 with the 90 day average nearly flat at 4.23. The nearterm trend based on the SOI was weakly indicative of the Inactive Phase of the MJO. The longer term pattern was neutral if still not slightly biased toward Inactive Phase/La Nina territory but weakening.  

Current equatorial surface wind analysis indicated limited pockets of modest west anomalies over the Maritime Continent fading while pushing to the dateline. East of there very weak west anomalies were in.cgiay extending from the dateline south of Hawaii and then fading to neutral from there on into Central America. With westerly anomalies barely holding on, tropical development in the West Pacific should continue. A week from now (10/23) weak westerly anomalies are forecast over the Maritime Continent turning to easterly anomalies on the dateline and south of Hawaii, then turning neutral from there into Central America. In all this suggests the Active Phase of the MJO is fading, but not giving way to anything particularly indicative of an Inactive Phase until 10/23. And maybe the WWB of 10/7-10/12 will provide a much needed burst of energy to the North Pacific jetstream and push some warm water eastward towards Central America long term, but it likely will not have enough duration for that.  

The longer range models (dynamic and statistical) run on 10/14 are generally in-sync. Both models suggest the Active Phase was all but gone in the far West Pacific. This pattern is to hold for the next 5-8 days then start giving way with the statistic model suggests a modest Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific 10-15 days out while the dynamic model suggests it holding off till 15 days out.  Either way, in the next 1-2 weeks some flavor of weak Inactive Phase seem likely. The ultra long range upper level model suggests the Active Phase is dissipating over the Central Pacific, all but gone by 10/23 in the mid-Pacific with a modest Inactive Phase building to the west and over the West Pacific by 10/27, traversing the equatorial Pacific through 11/10 then moving into Central America. At that time a weak Active Phase is to again start building over the West Pacific (11/14). But the overall MJO signal is to be very weak. The upper level model tends to be a leading indicator, with surface level anomalies lagging behind 1 week or more.  

The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. As of now (10/14) the weak La Nina-like pattern that has held all summer is dead with a pure neutral water temp pattern in.cgiay. The 10/14 image does hint at cooler water building along the immediate coast of Peru but it's too early to know if that is meaningful yet. Otherwise it looks like the Active Phase is starting to get the upper hand of surface water temps, or at least be in parity with the Inactive Phase. The sympathetic anomalous cool pool off West Africa is gone too, r.cgiaced by slightly warm water. Further north the .cgiume of slightly cooler than normal water that had been radiating southeast off California for 2 years was gone but has returned slightly, di.cgiaced well east. A wall of warmer than normal water that was holding tight along the North CA coast has retrograded slightly, allowing cooler water to move in locally, the result of mult.cgie north wind events. Still thousands of nmiles of warmer water is lurking just off the coast and moving east. If high pressure breaks up then warm water should return. But there's no sign of a legitimate warm pattern developing either. In short, we're moving into a pure neutral pattern. 

Subsurface waters temps on the equator are not available due to the government shutdown. 

Projections from the CFSv2 model run 10/15 remains unchanged. The model indicates water temps have been hovering near neutral since January within only a +-0.25 deviation. The model has consistently been suggesting a turnaround with a warming trend taking hold and accelerating early Oct 2013 (+0.2 C) and up to near +0.6 deg C by Dec then slowly tapering down to +0.5 by the end of the model run on May-June 2014. This would suggest a weak El Nino possible for next year. But for the immediate future a neutral pattern is expected. A consensus of other model suggest gradual warming too, but not passing into mildly positive territory till Spring of next year. 

Overall the immediate outlook remains nothing stellar, but trending towards something that would be considered right on the threshold of warm, by Spring 2014, assuming one were to believe the models. Other models suggest a continuation of neutral conditions, though trending warmer. All this is good news. If anything the ocean is in a recharging mode, with cold water from the 2010-2011 La Nina dispersed and temperatures gradually on the rise again in fit's-and-starts.

We are in a neutral ENSO pattern with neither a solid El Nino or La Nina imminent. Expect a neutral pattern for Winter of 2013-2014 with perhaps a slightly warmer pattern by early 2014. The weak presence of the Inactive Phase of MJO in the summer of 2013 still seems to be biasing the weather global pattern. But with the ocean turning neutral, we suspect the atmosphere will make the turn as well over the next few months (into Dec 2013). This is a better.cgiace than previous years (2010-2011, 2011-2012 and 2012-2013) under the direct influence of La Nina. It is becoming apparent we've finally recovered from the 2009-2010 El Nino. Longer term the expectation is there will be at least one to two years of neutral temperatures ultimately converging in a stronger warmer pattern and possible El Nino 2-3 years out (2015 or 2016). And historically, this is the 'normal' pattern (a few years of false starts post La Nina before a legit El Nino forms).

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool and more details in the  El Nino Update Last Updated 10/6/12 


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.     

Details to follow...


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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