BUOY ROUNDUP
Wednesday, October 15, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (10/15) in North and Central CA surf was head high and lined up coming from the northwest and clean but with some underlying lump and a bit closed out. Protected breaks had sets at chest high and very lined up if not closed out and clean and a bit on the soft side. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high plus on the sets and weakly lined up and soft with decent form and clean early. In Ventura County waves were waist high and sometimes a bit more on the sets and lined up with decent to good form and real clean. Central Orange County had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up if not a bit closed out and clean early breaking on the outer bar. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high pushing head high and lined up with decent form and clean but with a fair amount of underlying lump. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and lined up but pretty mushed and clean but unremarkable. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 3 ft overhead and lined up and clean with decent form. The South Shore had rare sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up with decent form and clean early. The East Shore was getting northwest wrap-around swell at thigh to waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (10/15) Hawaii's North Shore continued getting legit swell originating from a gale that developed off the Kurils on Thurs (10/9) with 38 ft seas aimed east tracking to the Northwest Dateline then fading on Fri (10/10). And swell from Typhoon Halong was intermixed having recurved from just south of Japan tracking east Thurs-Fri (10/10) with seas building briefly to 46 ft. A gale developed Sat (10/11) off the Kuril Islands with 24 ft seas tracking east into Sun (10/12) then faded before reaching the dateline. That swell is to extended existing swell in the Islands. For the most part California was getting nothing more than background energy from all the above. Looking forward a small gale developed and is to be tracking from the Northwestern Gulf into the North Gulf Tues-Thurs (10/16) with seas building to 33 ft aimed east. Swell to radiate into California. Then things to get interesting with a small gale forecast developing in the Gulf tracking east Fri-Sat (10/18) with seas building to 32 ft targeting the US West Coast. And of more interest is a storm forecast developing on the dateline tracking northeast to the Northern Gulf Sat-Mon (10/20) with up to 49 ft seas aimed east. In the South Pacific a tiny gale developed over the Central South Pacific Sat-Sun (10/5) with 26-29 ft seas over a small area aimed north-northeast. That swell is fading in Southern CA now. After that nothing is forecast down south.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (10/15) the jetstream was consolidated tracking firmly east off the South Kuril Islands with winds to 160 kts reaching into the Central Gulf while lifting gently northeast forming a small trough over the Northwestern Gulf supportive of gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to track east-northeast through the Northern Gulf into early Thurs (10/16) being fed by 150 kts winds offering continued support for gale formation. Starting Thurs (10/16) a new small trough is forecast developing on the dateline tracking east being fed by 160 kts winds offering good support for gale formation as it moves over the Gulf of Alaska through Sat (10/18) then falling hard south and pinching a bit as it nuzzles up to the Pacific Northwest Sun (10/19) likely making weather there. And on Sat (10/18) a new trough is forecast developing on the dateline tracking east-northeast up into the Northwestern Gulf into Sun (10/19) being fed by up to 170 kts winds offering good support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (10/20) the jet is to be consolidated and solid tracking east-northern from North Japan the whole way across the Pacific with winds 170-180 kts pushing up to Washington and then building Tues (10/21) wit winds to 190-200 kts starting to dig out at trough in the Central Gulf Wed (10/22) offering solid support for gale development there. Plenty to monitor.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (10/15) swell was still hitting Hawaii originating from a gale previously just east of the Kuril Islands (see Kuril Gale below). And additional swell energy is poised to hit Hawaii from a weaker gale previously off the Kurils (see Weak Kurils Gale below). And a new gale had developed and was tracking east over the Northwestern Gulf (see Northwest Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Fri AM (10/17) a low pressure system is forecast developing in the Western Gulf of Alaska with 35 kt west winds over a small area trying to get traction while tracking east. In the evening it is to build over the Central Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 31 ft over a small area at 48.25N 156W aimed east (304 degs NCal). On Sat AM (10/18) a gale is to fall southeast some with northwest winds 40 kts over a solid area and seas 32 ft at 47N 148W (305 degs NCal) and shadowed south of Pt Reyes CA. In the evening the gale is to move up to the Canada Coast with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 29 ft at 46N 141W aimed southeast (307.5 degs NCal). On Sun AM (10/19) fetch is to be fading just off Vancouver Islands at 35+ kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 47N 135W aimed southeast (319 NCal and completely shadowed). Something to monitor.

Kuril Gale
On Wed PM (10/8) a gale was developing over the North Kuril Islands producing northwest winds at 40-45 kts just east of there and starting to get traction. By Thursday AM (10/9) the gale was pushing east off the North Kuril Islands with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 48N 158.5E aimed east building to 37 ft mid-day. In the evening fetch held position at 45 kts with seas 38 ft at 48N 166.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (10/10) fetch was blowing at 30 kts from the Kuril Islands to almost the dateline with a core at 40-45 kts with seas 28-31 ft at 49N 173E aimed east generating swell propagating east. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts and lifting north with seas fading from 26 ft at 48N 17E aimed east. Fetch was to be gone in the evening. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell steady Wed AM (10/15) at 3.7 ft @ 13-14 secs all day (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees Tiny bit of swell energy from what was Typhoon Halong to be intermixed.

North CA: Swell peaks Wed (10/15) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/16) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 298-300 degrees

Weak Kuril Gale
On Sat AM (10/11) a weak gale developed just off the North Kuril Islands with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 46N 162E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds held position at 30-35 kts from the Kurils but extending east to the dateline with seas 24 ft at 46.75N 162.75E aimed east and southeast. On Sun AM (10/12) west winds held at 30-35 kts from the Kurils to the dateline with seas 23 ft south of the Aleutians focused at 47N 164E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 201 ft at 48N 170E aimed east. The gale dissipated from there. Something to monitor. Swell possibly to tag on to the end of swell from the Kuril Gale (see above).

Oahu: Swell arrival on Thurs AM (10/16) at 3.8 ft @ 13-14 secs holding steady (5.0 ft). Swell fading some on Fri (10/17) but holding steady through the day at 3.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (10/18) fading from 3.4 ft @ 13 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

Northwest Gulf Gale
On Tues AM (10/14) a gale developed over the far Northwestern Gulf with west winds 40-45 kts and seas building. In the evening the gale was just south of the Eastern Aleutians with 45 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 47.75N 173.75W aimed east. The jason-3 satellite made a pass over the west quadrant of the gael at 06Z Wed (10/15) and reported seas 31 ft (15 reading average) with a peak reading of 33.4 ft where the model suggested seas were 30 ft. The model was on track. On Wed AM (10/15) the gale was building in coverage some south of the Eastern Aleutians with west winds 35-40 kts over a decent size area with seas 31 ft at 49.5N 165.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east just south of Alaska with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 33 ft at 51.75N 160.5W and still in the NCal swell window (310.5 degs). Fetch holding Thurs AM (10/16) in the Northern Gulf from the west at 35-40 kts with seas 33 ft at 53N 153W aimed east and just east of the NCal swell window (316 degrees). In the evening the gale is to fade with west winds 35 kts and seas 30 ft at 54.25N 146W targeting only the Pacific Northwest. Something to monitor.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
On Mon AM (10/13) Typhoon Nakri was positioned 300 nmiles east of Tokyo Japan tracking east with winds 65 kts and seas 30 ft at 33N 142,75E (wave model suggest 41 ft). That is 3068 nmiles from Hawaii on the 296 degree path. Nakri is to continue east pushing half way to the dateline Wed AM (10/15) with winds fading from 35 kts and seas forecast at 22 ft at 35N 168W aimed east.

Oahu: Small swell is likely to reach Hawaii Sat PM (10/18) at 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction 296-298 degrees

Otherwise no tropical activity is being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (10/15) tiny swell was hitting Southern California originating from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no meaningful swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Central South Pacific Gale
A tiny gale developed over Central South Pacific Sat AM (10/4) producing 40-45 kt south winds over an infinitesimal area and seas building. In the evening southwest winds were 40+ kts over a tiny area tracking northeast with seas 28 ft at 49.25S 148.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/5) south winds were 30-35 kts over a broader with seas 28 ft at 45.25S 141W aimed north. Secondary fetch developed in the evening over the same area at 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.5S 135W aimed north. Fetch and seas were gone by Mon AM (10/6). Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading Wed AM (10/15) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-198 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (10/16) low pressure is to be tracking east-northeast off Japan and building while moving towards the dateline. On Fri PM (10/17) the gale is forecast building just west of the dateline lifting east-northeast with northwest winds 40 kts with seas building. On Sat (10/18) the gale builds to storm status just west of the dateline with northwest winds 55 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 41.5N 171E aimed southeast. In the evening the storm is to track east-northeast straddling the dateline with northwest winds 60-65 kts and seas 45 ft at 45N 179.25E aimed east. On Sun AM (10/19) the storm is to be over the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 50 kts solid over a good sized area and seas 49 ft at 47.25N 171.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to push east with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 47 ft at 49.75N 162.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (10/20) the gale is to be fading over the Northern Gulf with west winds 40 kts and seas 42 ft at 52N 154.25W aimed east. The gael to fade after that. Something to monitor.

Theoretically another gale is to be develop off the Kurils on Sun PM (10/19) tracking east to the dateline Mon PM (10/20) with seas building to 33 ft at 48N 167E aimed east. Maybe some tiny swell to result if this system forms.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the model suggests no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere...Yet
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/14) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/15) Today mostly modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through 10/18, then building to strong status over the dateline 10/19 through 10/28 then rapidly collapsing to neutral 10/29 holding through the end of the model run on 10/31. Strong west anomalies are over the Maritime Continent today (10/15) forecast holding till 10/27 but not reaching the KWGA.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (10/15) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east moving from 173W to 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding from 120W to 129W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 170E. And cold anomalies down to -3 degrees were at 140W at depth at the thermocline level and cool across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/10 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 160E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline east of 165W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/10) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to the dateline and up to -10 cms between the Galapagos to 135W (rising from -15 cms a few days ago). Heights were weakly above normal from 175E and points west of there. The cool pool is steady over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/10) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 140W to 86W. Warm anomalies were west of 155W. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/14) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Ecuador to 175E. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/14): Temps were cooling from Ecuador to 135W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/15) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were -1.023 and have been steady the past few and have been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/15) Today's temps were steady at -0.957. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at -0.3 as of 10/8. Previously temps were -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.46 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.63 (JAS), -0.48 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (10/15) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall down to -0.80 Nov, rising -0.65 mid-Dec and technically neutral late Dec, -0.20 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.1) in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to -0.75 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in late Dec then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.623 in OND (previous model run -0.406), then rising to -0.501 in DJF and 0.013 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.710 OND then rising to +0.389 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.526 NDJ rising to -0.088 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast falling to weak La Nina in Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/15) the Daily Index was negative at -3.10 and has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was falling weakly at +4.17 and has been generally falling from +4.36 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling at +3.89 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +3.76 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table