BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, October 13, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (10/10) in North and Central CA waves were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with some intermixed warble but not bad and fairly clean but foggy early. Protected breaks had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean but fogged in. At Santa Cruz surf was unknown due to heavy fog early bur estimated to have sets at shoulder to near head high and lined up. In Southern California/Ventura waves were head high to almost 1 ft overhead and super lined up with sets pouring in from the north and fairly clean though a bit uneven and peeling. A real Fall swell is hitting. Central Orange County had sets at up to head high and lined up and clean but a little warbled and uneven. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and real lined up and super clean with good form. North San Diego had sets at head high and lined up with good form and real clean early. Oahu's North Shore had some waist high sets and lined up and clean with decent form when they came. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up with good form and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting some north windswell at thigh high and warbled from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (10/13) southern hemi swell was hitting Hawaii but mainly California originating from a gale that tracked east over the deep South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (10/4) with 28-30 ft seas then lifted northeast Sat-Sun (10/6) with seas 25-27 ft. But for California north of Pt Conception westerly swell was dominating originating from a gale that developed off Oregon on Fri (10/11) with 19 ft seas aimed southeast. Beyond swell is radiating south originating from a stronger gale in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri-Sun (10/13) producing 26-29 ft seas aimed southeast. And another small gale is forecast for the Gulf of Alaska on Fri-Sat (10/19) with 23 ft seas aimed east and down south 2 more with the first over the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (10/16) with 34 ft seas aimed northeast and a second over the South Central Pacific Fri-Sun (10/20) with up to 31 ft seas aimed northeast. It's still summer in the Southern Hemi as the Northern Hemi slowly comes online.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (10/13) the jetstream was consolidated tracking east on the 42N latitude line with winds 130 kts digging out a trough over the East Central Gulf supportive of gale development then lifting northeast pushing up into Central Canada. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to slowly ease east pushing into British Columbia early Wed (10/16). At that time the jet is to be weak in the west and winds to 140 kts ridging some over the Gulf not offering much. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (10/18) a broad weak trough is forecast over the dateline and Western Gulf regions with a ridge over the far West and far East. The trough is to deepen over the dateline on Sun (10/20) being fed by 130 kts winds offering decent support for gale development then almost cutting off later in the day with the ridge amplifying over the far West Pacific with the jet pushing way up into the North Bering Sea then falling into the aforementioned trough before gently lifting northeast into British Columbia. And perhaps a backdoor trough is to push down inland from over Washington Thurs (10/17) down over Southern California late Friday then stalling there and becoming cut off there into Sun (10/20).

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (10/13) swell was hitting North and Central CA originating from a small local low pressure system that developed in the Eastern Gulf (see Small Gulf Low below). This swell was over performing forecasts.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a broader gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf was pushing southeast (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

Small Gulf Low
On Wed PM (10/9) a small gale was developing in the Central Gulf producing 30-35 kts southwest winds over a tiny area with seas building. On Thurs AM (10/10) the gale was building producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts with seas building from 18 ft over a tiny area at 41.5N 152W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to track east with 30-35 kt northwest winds in the Eastern Gulf off North CA with seas 19 ft at 40N 148W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading Fri AM (10/11) with northwest winds 25 kts just off North CA and seas 17 ft at 37N 141W aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate from there while pushing into North CA. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell peaking just before sunrise on Sun (10/13) at 5.0 ft @ 11-12 secs slowly fading through the day (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 270-275 degrees

Northwestern Gulf Gale
On Thurs PM (10/10) a gale was falling southeast from the Central Bering Sea into the Northwestern Gulf producing 35 kt northwest winds south of the Central Aleutians with seas building aimed southeast. On Fri AM (10/11) northwest winds were 35-40 kts falling southeast over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 48N 172W aimed southeast. Fetch built more while tracking east in the evening with northwest winds 35-40 kts if not near 45 kts over a broadening area and seas 26-27 ft at 47.5N 164W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (10/12) the gale tracks east in the North Central Gulf with northwest winds 35-40 kts over a solid area and seas 29 ft at 50.5N 159.5W aimed southeast with 26 ft seas as far south as 45N 160W. In the evening northwest winds fade from 35 kts still over a solid area aimed southeast with seas 25-26 ft at 47N 156W aimed southeast over a decent area. Fetch fading Sun AM (10/13) from 30-35 kts still filling the North Central Gulf with seas fading from 23 ft at 45.25N 151W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds fade from 30 kts and seas 20 ft at 48.5N 149.25W aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate after that. Something well worth monitoring.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival Mon AM (10/14) building to 5.8 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-AM (8.0-8.5 ft) then holding. Swell slowly fading Tues AM (10/15) from 5.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (7.5 ft). Swell fading some early Wed (10/16) from 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (10/17) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 345 moving to 350 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Mon (10/14) building to 3.6 ft @ 16 secs (5.5 ft). Swell building overnight peaking Tues AM (10/15) to 6.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (8.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (10/16) from 4.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.0 ft). Local windswell takes over on Thurs (10/17). Swell Direction: 298-302 degrees

Southern CA: Swell building Tues (10/15) building to 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading slowly on Wed (10/16) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are occurring or forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 12,500 ft holding steady then falling to 10,500 ft Wed-Thurs (10/17) then quickly rebounding above 14,000 ft on Sat (10/19). At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 45-50 degrees through Tues (10/15) then falling to 40 degrees Wed-Thurs (10/17) before warming to 50-55 degrees on Sun (10/20).

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell is arriving in California originating from a gale that built over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing on Mon AM (10/14) in the Southeast Pacific with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 24 ft at 54.75S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kt south and southwest winds are to be moving east with seas 34 ft at 52.5S 138W aimed northeast. The gale is to lift northeast on Tues AM (10/15) with 35-40 kt south winds and seas 31 ft at 48S 132.75W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from the south at 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 44.25S 127S aimed north and northeast. Fetch is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Central South Pacific Gale
On Thurs AM (10/3) a gale was pushing east over the deep Central South Pacific southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 31 ft at 62.25S 178.75E aimed east. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 61S 169.25W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (10/4) the gale was lifting northeast with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a broad area and seas 29 ft at 57.25S 162.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 52S 157.5W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading some Sat AM (10/5) producing southwest winds at 30+ kts and seas 26 ft at 48.5S 149.5W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds rebuilt to 35-40 kts with seas 25 ft at 51.25S 139.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/6) south winds were holding at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 50S 132.25W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale fell southeast with south winds 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft at 50S 132.25W aimed northeast. Swell is radiating northeast.

Oahu: Swell fading Sun (10/13) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2,5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (10/14) fading from 1.4 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 1890 moving to 175 degrees

Southern CA: On Sun (10/13) swell is to be building to 2.3 ft @ 17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell builds on Mon (10/14) at 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (10/15) from 2.7 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (10/16) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/17) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (10/18) fading from 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 moving to 186 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/13) building to 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell builds on Mon (10/14) at 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (10/15) from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (10/16) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/17) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (10/18) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 moving to 185 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a weak low pressure system is to be developing in the Northwestern Gulf with seas building to 15-16 secs Fri (10/18) building to 20 ft later Sat (10/19) over a tiny area at 50N 150W aimed east.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast building Thurs PM (10/17) southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 26 ft at 60S 179.25E aimed east to northeast. On Fri AM (10/18) southwest winds to build in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 59S 170.25S aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 35-40 kts over a solid sized area with seas 31 ft at 57S 162.75S. On Sat AM (10/19) fetch is to be lifting northeast with southwest winds 35 kts over a broad area and seas 30 ft at 53.25S 154W aimed northeast. Fetch fading some in coverage in the evening at 30-35 kts with seas 29-30 ft still over a solid area at 53S 147.25W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sun AM (10/20) form 30+ kts over a solid area with seas fading from 27 ft at 51.75S 140W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

ENSO Neutral Trying to Turn to La Nina
Models Weaken Strength of La Nina
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024 as La Nina builds underneath that background state.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/12) Water sensors are down in the east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/13) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests east anomalies are to build in strength to strong status filling the KWGA 10/14 through 10/20 with west anomalies are to start building over the far West KWGA 10/20 holding through the end of the model run on 10/29 almost reaching the dateline. East anomalies to be fading 10/21 in the East KWGA limited to points on or east of the dateline through the end of the model run. The Inactive MJO continues but the end looks near.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/13) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone but previously retrograding from 175E to 165E. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 175W to 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 168W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific and thicker in the east now. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1-2 degrees in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 170W reaching to the surface between 140W to 165W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 165W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline other than a few shallow pockets of warm water in the east. But, the density of that cold water was significantly less than day and weeks past with the density of warm anomalies west of there building started at 170W and points west of there. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 155W (previously the dateline) with -10 cms shrinking in coverage at 130W. -15 cm anomalies are gone. It appears the cool pool is losing density and intensity fast. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/5) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept from 180W to Ecuador but started quickly fading the end of Sept. Today the cool pool is fading fast only reaching west to 141W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador. But, the Subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool devolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/12) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was limited on the equator between 120W to 165W. The current pulse of cooling surface waters are holding. We are in a transitional phase moving from neutral to La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/12): Pockets of cooling were fading between the Galapagos to 150W. A La Nina pulse seems to be holding for the moment.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/13) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -1.304 previous falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/13) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.974 after reaching up to -0.741 on 10/1 after falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were Not Available for week of 10/25 (presumably due the Helene outages), -0.5 degs (week of 9/18) the first time solidly negative. Previously temps were near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly values were -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug and -0.5 in late Sept. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (10/10) - Temps to fall to -1.00 mid-Oct, peaking down at -1.05 degs in Dec 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.90 in Oct then down to -0.95 degs in Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The September 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.500 degs today and is the 4th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.656 in Nov (3 month running mean) then then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.862 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.339 in Jan. Both these projections are colder than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/13) the Daily Index was positive at 3.99 today and has been mostly positive for 17 days running, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at 1.58 and has been generally positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising slightly at 0.80 and neutral the last month. Thee first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table