Thursday, October 13, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 15.0 secs from 194 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs (Barbers Pt), 81.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 82.0 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 9.0 secs from 350 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.9 secs from 161 degrees. Wind south at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 69.3 degs, 66.0 (Topanga 103), 66.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 69.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 222 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.0 secs from 214 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.6 secs from 203 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.9 secs from 193 degrees. Water temperate was 69.4 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 11.3 secs from 327 degrees with south swell 1.4 ft @ 15.6 secs from 194 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 55.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (Pt Reyes 46013), 57.4 (46026), 58.8 (SF Bar 142), 59.9 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 60.8 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (10/13) North and Central CA had a mix of mostly northwest windswell and minimal southern hemi swell underneath at thigh to waist high and weakly lined up and pretty warbled and hacked by northwest wind. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high on the bigger sets and fairly clean with texture on top and crumbled. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high on the rare sets and clean and very soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but soft and weak and inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to shoulder high on the peak and lined up and super clean with good form. North San Diego had sets at waist high and clean but soft and pretty formless. Hawaii's North Shore was getting some background surf with sets waist to chest high and soft and clean. The South Shore was beautiful early with waves waist to chest high and lined up with good form and super clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and fairly clean with light north wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (10/13) California was getting mix of fading southern hemi swell and minimal northwest windswell. Hawaii's North Shore was getting no swell of interest and the South Shore was getting minimal background southern hemi swell. California's southern hemi swell originated from a small gale tracked east through the Central South Pacific Sat-Sun (10/2) producing 28-30 ft sea over a small area aimed east, but was mostly on it's last legs. Looking forward another gale is to develop in the Central South Pacific Fri-Sat (10/15) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed well northeast mainly at the mainland but offering sideband potential for the Hawaiian Islands. And in the Northern Hemi a weak system developed in the Northwestern Gulf on Wed (10/12) producing 19 ft seas aimed again at Hawaii with secondary energy expected just north to Hawaii on Thurs (10/13) producing 18 ft seas aimed south at the Islands. Small swell to result. And a stronger gale is forecast tracking from the North Dateline region to the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Sat (10/15) producing up to 22 ft seas aimed at Hawaii and the Mainland. And secondary energy from that system is to develop while tracking east and northeast through the Gulf Mon-Wed (10/19) producing 25 ft seas building to 30 ft aimed southeast. Fall is trying to get established.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (10/10) the jetstream was running east on the 46N latitude line with winds to 170 kts over the dateline forming a trough and offering some support for gale development while another trough was nearly pinched off east of there with it's apex reaching just north of Hawaii being fed by 120 kts offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to build while falling southeast absorbing the trough north of Hawaii on Fri (10/14) and pushing southeast into early Sun (10/16) then pinching off and dissolving. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (10/17) the jet in the west is to be ridging north some and building energy with winds to 170 kts on Tues (10/18) reaching up to the Central Aleutians then falling hard south over the Northwestern Gulf with winds at 170 kts falling into it offering good support for gale development and building to 190 kts early Wed (10/19) and still supporting gale development but starting to pinch off some. That trough is to be fully pinched dropping well south into the Central Gulf on Thurs (10/20) being fed by winds to 150 kts with a broad area of 180 kt winds pushing east on the 47N latitude line from the West Pacific to the Northwestern Gulf. Maybe more to follow.
On Thursday (10/13) swell is being generated by low pressure in the Gulf targeting Hawaii (see Hawaiian Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale is to be pushing across the North Pacific generating swell (see North Pacific Gale below).
Weak low pressure started developing in a trough north of Hawaii on Tues PM (10/11) producing 30-35 kts north winds with seas building. On Wed AM (10/12) north winds held at 30-35 kts targeting the Hawaiian Islands 1400 nmiles to the south with seas building to 19 ft at 46N 156W aimed south. Fetch was fading in the evening from 25 kts with seas 16 ft at 44N 146W aimed south at Hawaii. On Thurs AM (10/13) a new small fetch of 30 kt north winds was positioned 700 nmiles north of Hawaii producing 18 ft seas at 34N 158W aimed south. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts with seas 17 ft at 32N 155W aimed south at the Hawaiian Islands. Swell is being produced targeting Hawaii. Something to monitor.
Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Fri afternoon (10/14) building to 5.5 ft @ 11 secs (6.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat AM (10/15) from 4.9 ft @ 11 secs (5.0-5.5 ft). Residuals on Sun AN (10/16) fading from 3.1 ft @ 10-11 (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 345 moving to 355 degrees
North Pacific Gale
On Wed PM (10/12) a new gale developed just off Kamchatka producing 40 kt west winds just south of the West Aleutians producing 21 ft seas at 49.5N 160.75E aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/13) a broad fetch of 30-35 kt west winds were pushing east just south of the Aleutians with seas 19 ft at 50.5N 167.75E aimed east. Fetch is to build in coverage in the evening over the North Dateline region at 30 kts from the northwest with seas building to 21 ft at 47N 179E aimed east. Fetch is to hold Fri AM (10/14) in the far northwestern Gulf from 30 kts from the northwest with seas building to 21 ft at 46.5N 174.75W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be holding at 30 kts from the northwest with seas 22 ft at 44.75N 171.75W aimed southeast. The gale continued east on Sat AM at 30 kts from the northwest over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 21 ft at 44.5N 167W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be fading in coverage in the Northwestern Gulf from 30 kts with seas 19 ft at 44N 164W aimed southeast. The gale is to dissipate after that. Swell is likely to result targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (10/17) building to 5.3 ft @ 14 secs early (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri AM (10/14) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts off Cape Mendocino but 10 kts nearshore for all of North and Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. Weak short period windswell building.
- Sat AM (10/15) south winds are forecast at 1-5 kts early for all of North and Central CA early but with 15 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino. South winds continue at 5-10 kts in the afternoon for all of North and Central CA with fetch off Cape Mendocino evaporating in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
- Sun AM (10/16) south winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino but 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA and calm for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA with low pressure well off the coast with northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. No windswell production forecast.
- Mon AM (10/17) calm to light south winds are forecast over North CA and calm for Central CA early with the low gone tracking fast off to the north. Light winds to continue in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
- Tues AM (10/18) light winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA early maybe building to 10 kts from the northwest over Central CA in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
- Wed AM (10/19) northeast winds are to be 10 kts early for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early fading to calm in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
- Thurs AM (10/20) no change forecast.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 12,0000 ft today and is to fall to 10,500 ft on 10/19 and holding beyond.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
Swell from a gale that previously crossed the South Pacific is fading along the US West Coast (see South Central Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a new gale was developing Thurs AM (10/13) under New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds developing. In the evening southwest winds to build to 45 kts over the South Central Pacific with seas building from 30 ft at 60.5S 166.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (10/14) a broad fetch of southwest winds at 40+ kts is to be tracking northeast over the South Central Pacific with 33 ft seas at 55.5S 155.25W aimed northeast. More of the same is forecast in the evening with 34 ft seas at 54.75S 146.5W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be reorganizing on Sat AM (10/15) at 40-45 kts aimed north with seas 34 ft at 52.25S 136.75W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35 kts aimed north with seas 31 ft at 50S 131W aimed north. The gale is to be gone after that. Possible swell radiating north. Something to monitor.
South Central Pacific Gale
On Fri PM (9/30) a small gale developed under New Zealand with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 28 ft over a small area aimed east at 54S 166E aimed east. On Sat AM (10/1) fetch built some at 35-40 kts tracking east with seas 29 ft at 53S 175W aimed east. In the evening fetch continued east over the Central South Pacific at 35-45 kts from the southwest with seas 31 ft over a tiny area at 54.5S 158.5W aimed east. On Sun AM (10/2) southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 51.5S 146.5W aimed east. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 30-35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 27 ft at 50S 138.5W aimed northeast. Low odds of swell production. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Dribbles on Thurs (10/13) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees
North CA: Southern CA: Dribbles on Thurs (10/13) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours another gale is to develop over the South Dateline tracking east from a point off Japan on Sun PM (10/16) with winds 35-40 kts from the west with seas 22 ft over a small area at 36.5N 173.25W aimed east at Hawaii. On Mon AM (10/17) 40-45 kts west winds are to be over the Southwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 37N 167W aimed east with sideband energy targeting Hawaii. In the evening the gale is to start lifting northeast with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 37N 160W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (10/18) the gale is to be over the Central Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds targeting Hawaii and 35 kt west winds targeting the US West Coast with seas 23 ft at 39N 152W aimed southeast. The gael is to build dramatically in the evening with 50 kt north winds and seas 25 ft at 49N 154W aimed south and north. On Wed AM (10/19) northwest winds over the Northern Gulf with seas 30 ft at 48N 155W aimed southeast. Fetch is to dissipate in the evening with seas fading from 21 ft at 47N 153W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no clear swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Upwelling Phase Still Underway
Models Suggest Major Change Coming
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control subsurface and on the surface. But, the model are suggesting this pattern is going to quickly start fading in late Oct, with La Nina collapsing shortly thereafter. And there's some indication a turn to a warm pattern setting up beyond. The outlook is turning optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/12) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/13) Modest east anomalies were filling the dateline today at strong status with west anomalies pushing east to 160E at moderate status filling the Western half of the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building west and filling the KWGA at near strong status on the last day of the model run on 10/20. The 2 week GFS 925 mb wind anomaly chart depicts east anomalies fading considerably over the KWGA by Sat (10/22) with west anomalies developing in the far KWGA on 10/26 but not filling the KWGA, Another pulse of east anomalies are forecast in the East KWGA 10/26 and filling it at the end of the model run on 10/29.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/12) A modest version of the Active Phase of the MJO was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a modest MJO signal holding over the West KWGA on day 5 of the model run then fading some through days 10 and 15 of the model run and weak at the end. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but the signal holding steady through the 15 day model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/13) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was moderate over the far West Pacific and is slowly track east while fading to weak status over the West Pacific 15 days out. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase holding strength at moderate status while moving to the West Pacific.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/13) A moderate Active Phase (wet air) is pushing east over the KWGA today. The Active Phase is to slowly ease east while slowly losing energy reaching the East Pacific and tracking into Ecuador 11/12 at weak status. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 11/5 filling the Pacific at the end of the model run 11/22.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/12) A modest Active signal was indicated today starting to build over the KWGA with moderate west reaching to 150E filling half the KWGA. The forecast calls for the Active Phase pushing through the KWGA into 10/26 with west anomalies reaching to 170E on 10/19 holding through 10/23, then fading. The Inactive Phase is to try and push into the KWGA on 11/2 but not make it with east anomalies moderate filling the KWGA 10/28 through the end of the model run on 11/9. This is perplexing given what is forecast in the model below.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/13) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today east anomalies were over the dateline with west anomalies filling the West KWGA to 160E. The Active Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO pushing through the KWGA through 11/11 with west anomalies expanding east to the dateline on 10/21 and holding. This would be a huge change if it develops as forecast. The key date is 10/21 for the demise of east anomalies and presumably La Nina. The Active Phase is to hold on over the dateline through 12/16 with a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO building over the KWGA 10/28 through the end of the model run on 1/10/2023 but with weak west anomalies in control the whole time. Perhps east anomalies to try and rebuilding on the dateline 10/31-11/7 but then succumbing to westerly anomalies. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to hold into October then collapse on 12/2 with the western edge of the high pressure bias starting to retrograde west to 145E at 10/28. But after that the high pressure bias is to start easing east and fully collapsing on 12/25 and gone beyond. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to hold then starting to ease east to 150E at the end of the model run. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then dissipate completely by 10/23 with west anomalies taking over the KWGA beyond. And the High Pressure Bias is dissipate in late Dev. East anomalies are to now set up over the Maritime Continent stating 11/30 and building beyond. It seems the full demise of La Nina is poised to begin in the next week or so. This would be a huge step forward, if it develops.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/13) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 176E. The 26 degree isotherm was easing east to 150W today, previously at 145W. The 24 deg isotherm had backtracked from Ecuador to 133W but then started easing east from 130W to 122W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 158W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 135W and filling the area from 150W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 155W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 150W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific and starting to move east reaching to 150W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 150W with a previous broad core at -15 cms now repositioned east between 110W to 130W with -10 cm anomalies holding from 100W to 145W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 155W to Ecuador and easing east. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If something doesn't change soon, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/12) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A pocket of very cool water was erupting between Ecuador to 115W but appears to be losing intensity today. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/12): Mostly warming water is on the equator in a thin string from Ecuador to 125W. The trend was towards warming.
Hi-res Overview: (10/6) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be building some on the equator with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/13) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were falling slightly at -1.614 after falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps at -2.095 degs and falling the past 10 days. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/13) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.735 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps at -0.837 degs and steady the past 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept.
Forecast (10/13) - Temps are to be falling from about -0.80 degs in Oct to -1.10 degs late-Oct then starting a farily steady rise in Nov and Dec before starting a quick rise in Jan reaching above the La Nina threshold late Jan 2023 and up to +0.70 degs in July and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Dec. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.00 in mid Nov and then are to start pushing up in Dec to -0.70 degs in Jan rising above La Nina threshold in late Jan and rising from there forward to +0.65 degs in July. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The September 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.957 degs today. Temps to hold in Oct at -0.925 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.658 in Dec and -0.445 in Jan rising to +0.172 in May. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/13) the Daily Index was rising at +22.113 today. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising at +20.40 after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +13.57 previously at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table