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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, October 10, 2023 8:44 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 10/9 thru Sun 10/15
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 Small Swells for CA
North Dateline Swell Forecast - Possible Extratropical Typhoon Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 10.9 secs from 206 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs (Barbers Pt), 80.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 9.5 secs from 152 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.7 secs from 178 degrees. Wind south at 8 kts. Water temperature 66.6 degs, 65.7 (Topanga 103), 64.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 67.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.5 (Del Mar 153), 68.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.2 secs from 208 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.8 ft @ 9.9 secs from 279 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.2 secs from 185 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 204 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.4 secs from 199 degrees. Water temperature was 63.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 13.6 secs from 296 degrees. Wind west at 8-10 kts (46026). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 59.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 59.7 (San Francisco 46026), 59.5 (SF Bar 142) and 62.8 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (10/10) in North and Central CA waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up but pretty weak and crumbled with some intermixed texture with light onshore winds. Protected breaks were thigh high but lined up and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up but a bit crumbled. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high on the sets and inconsistent and soft and mushed but fairly clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined but textured from south wind and soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to maybe chest high on the peak but with decent form but weak and soft with clean conditions. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and lined up and soft but clean. Oahu's North Shore was getting some small swell with waves up to chest high and lined up and clean with decent form. The South Shore had sets at waist high and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting waves at thigh high and lightly chopped from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (10/10) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii. Looking forward a low pressure system organized Sunday (10/8) evening off Washington producing seas to 24 ft on a very north angled relative to North CA.That swell is posed to hit NCal. Another gale developed right behind it over the Eastern Gulf Mon-Tues (10/10) producing 24 ft seas forecast building to 26 ft late Tuesday off North Oregon targeting Northern CA better. And yet another gale is to develop off the Kuril Islands tracking east-northeast on Wed-Thurs (10/12) with 45 ft seas over the North Dateline region then fading in the far Northwestern Gulf. And we're watching possible development of Typhoon Bolaven off the Philippines forecast to turn extratropical while recurving over the lower dateline region on Sun-Mon (10/16) then tracking through the Gulf of Alaska. A possible 'real' Fall pattern is setting up.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (10/10) the jet was consolidated tracking east on the 40N latitude line tracking from Japan ridging slightly west of the dateline then falling into a developing trough on the dateline being fed by 150 kt winds offering some support for gale development. the jet continued east from there forming another trough off Oregon being fed by 150 kts winds then pushing over the OR-CA border offering support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours the East Gulf trough is to move inland on Wed (10/11) and be gone while the dateline trough starts pinching off in the Central Gulf offering nothing. But another trough is forecast developing off the Kuril Islands on Wed PM (10/11) being fed by 170 kt winds on Thurs (10/12) over the dateline offering good support for gale development with that trough deepening over the Central Gulf Sat (10/14) with winds still 170 kts offering good support for gale formation before pinching off there. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to remain consolidated running east on the 40N latitude line forming yet another trough pushing over the Southern Dateline region Mon-Tues (10/17) offering good support for gale development. For the first time in a very long time (years) the jet forecast is looking optimistic.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/10) small swell was tracking towards North CA from a gale previously in the East Gulf (see first Gulf Gale below). And swell from a second gale that traversed the Gulf was right behind (see Second Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues PM (10/10) a gale is forecast developing off the Southern Kuril Islands with 45 kt west winds over a small area starting to get traction on the oceans surface while lifting east-northeast with seas building from 20 ft at 37N 159E aimed east. On Wed AM (10/11) west winds to be 50 kts with seas 29 ft at 43.5N 168E aimed east. The gale is to be racing east in the evening with 55 kt west winds approaching the North Dateline region with seas 43 ft at 47N 177E aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/12) the gale is to be just south of the Central Aleutians with 45 kt west winds over a solid area with seas 45 ft at 49.5N 175W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 40 kts as the gale continue east just south of Aleutians with seas fading from 40 ft at 51.5N 170W aimed east free and clear of land. On Fri AM (10/13) residual fetch is to hold over the North Dateline region with fetch fading with 40 kt west winds and seas fading from 27 ft at 50N 174W aimed east. The gael to fade out from there. Something to monitor.

 

First Gulf Gale
A gale developed over the Eastern Gulf starting Sun AM (10/8) producing 30 kt west winds with seas developing. In the evening winds built to 45 kts from the northwest over a tiny area off Washington with seas 22 ft at 47.75N 138.5W aimed southeast. Seas peaked in the evening at 23 ft at 48N 135W (319 degs NCal). On Mon AM (10/9) the gale was lifting north off the coast of British Columbia with northwest winds 35 kts and seas 21 ft at 50N 132W aimed only from Oregon northward. The gale dissipated after that.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/10) building to 4.6 ft @ 13 secs (6.0 ft) midday. Swell fading on Wed (10/11) from 4.6 ft @ 11 secs (5.0 ft) and likely being overtaken by local northwest windswell. Swell Direction: 319 degrees

 

Second Gulf Gale
Another gale started building Mon AM (10/9) in the Central Gulf with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 46N 152W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds continued at 35-40 kts from the northwest with seas 24 ft at 45.5N 144.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (10/10) the gale was lifting northeast with northwest winds 30-35 kts with seas 22 ft at 45N 136.5W aimed southeast and a bit off the coast of Oregon. Fetch is to hold off North Oregon in the evening rebuilding to 35-40 kts with 27 ft seas at 45.5N 133W aimed southeast (318.8 degs NCal) and moving east of the NCal swell window. On Wed AM (10/11) the gale is to be poised to move inland over Oregon with 30-35 kt west winds and seas 23 ft at 45.5N 129W aimed east. Possible better odds for swell radiating into the California coast but also local wind to not be favorable for exposed breaks.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (10/11) building to 7.0 ft @ 13 secs later and buried in local northwest windswell (8.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (10/12) from 7.0 ft @ 12-13 secs early (8.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (10/13) fading from 4.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
On Sun AM (10/8) Tropical Storm Bolevan was developing 1,600 nmiles west of the Philippines with winds 45 kts tracing northwest. Bolevan continued on this heading and is to be building into Wed AM (10/11) positioned 1,200 nmiles west of Taiwan with winds 115 kts, then making a turn to the north and northeast while accelerating peaking Thurs AM (10/12) with winds 125 kts. By Fri AM (10/13) Bolevan is to be racing northeast with winds 115 kts and positioned 600 nmiles southeast of Central Japan. From there it heads to the dateline. See more details in the Longterm Forecast below.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed AM (10/12) high pressure and northwest winds to be building at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 20 kts from Bodega Bay southward and up to 25 kts for Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 25+ kts for Central CA. Windswell building. Rain forecast for Cape Mendocino early fading slowly through the day.
  • Thurs AM (10/13) northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA and 25 kts off the coast but 20 kts continuing down over all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to collapse at 10 kts for North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA. Windswell fading fast.
  • Fri AM (10/14) winds to be from the south at 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North Ca and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon a front and south winds to be 15-20 kts for Pt Arena northward and northwest 5 kts south of there. Rain building over most of North CA into the early evening. No windswell forecast.
  • Sat AM (10/15) southwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and 1-5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts to the Golden Gate and northwest 1-5 kts south of there. No windswell forecast. No rain forecast.
  • Sun AM (10/16) south winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino but calm from Pt Arena southward and northwest 10 kts south of Big Sur early. In the afternoon south winds to be 10+ kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts from Pt Reyes southward and northwest 15 kts from Big Sur southward.
  • Mon AM (10/17) south winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts near the Golden Gate and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and calm near the Golden Gate and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain developing for Cape Mendocino late.
  • Tues AM (10/18) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA early. Rain dissipating for North CA early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): No update due to model issues. But It looks like NOAA is making progress resolving the problem. We continue working with NOAA to resolve the issue.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tues (10/10) swell from a small gale previously south of New Zealand was radiating north targeting Tahiti and Hawaii (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Tuesday PM (10/10) another gale was developing south of New Zealand producing 45 kt south winds with seas 27 ft at 55S 165>5E aimed northeast. On Wed AM (10/11) the gale is to track east producing 50-55 kts southwest winds over a tiny area with southeast of New Zealand with seas 28-30 ft at 56.75S 179W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 55S 180W and to 33 ft over a tiny area at 59.5S 171.5W aimed east. The gale is to hold while easing east on Thurs AM (10/12) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 57.75S 174.75W aimed northeast. The gale to fade in the evening. Something to monitor.

 

New Zealand Gale
On Mon AM (10/9) a gale started developing while tracking northeast under New Zealand producing 35 kt southwest winds over a solid area with seas 27 ft at 51S 170E aimed northeast and mostly shadowed by New Zealand. In the afternoon a broad fetch of southwest winds were 35 kts just southeast of New Zealand with seas aimed northeast at 27 ft at 52.75S 169.25E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (10/10) south winds were 30 kts with 23 ft seas fading at 48.75S 178.72W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Maybe some small swell to result for Tahiti and Hawaii.

Oahu South Shore: Expect swell arrival on later on Mon (10/16) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Tues (10/17) pushing 1.4 ft @ 15 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (10/18) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours Typhoon Bolaven is to be tracking east-northeast off Japan on Sat (10/14) 900 nmiles east of Central Japan with winds 95 kts and then approaching the dateline Sun (10/15) with winds fading from 65 kts and seas 50 ft at 38.25N 173.5E . The storm theoretically is to turn extratropical while continuing on a easterly heading on Mon PM (10/16) with 50-55 kts northwest winds and seas up to 55 ft at 41.25N 157W. By Tues (10/17) extratropical storm Bolevan to be in the Western Gulf with 50 kt west winds and seas 46 ft at 43N 149W aimed east starting to lift east-northeast. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

El Nino In Control and Steadily Building
Kelvin Waves #4, #5 and #6 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs reflect El Nino
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April, a 5th in May and a 6th in August. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May (resulting in Kevin Wave #5), the MJO stalled. Finally the Active Phase restarted in later July Producing Kelvin Wave #6 which is erupting off Ecuador now. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are warm and holding, and slightly expanding. And another Active Phase of the MJO is developing now (mid-Oct) likely starting to produce Kelvin Wave #7 which is pushing east. All these Active MJO/Kevin Wave pairs are backfilling warm water off Ecuador and helping push the atmosphere towards El Nino. And El Nino is finally starting to be evident in the atmosphere as evidenced by the SOI, OLR. ocean current, and wind anomalies.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2023 = 3.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate west over the KWGA. The dividing line was 175E. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral to light east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/10) Moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to collapse on 10/11 with modest east anomalies over the KWGA but fading from the east into 10/20 and filling less than 50% of it and then all but gone by 10/22 with weak west anomalies in control through the end of the model run on 10/26.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/9) A modest Inactive MJO was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO is to hold unchanged on day 5 building some on day 10 and at strong status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts then Inactive Phase all but dissipating on day 10 and gone on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/10) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over Africa. The forecast indicates it is to move to the Indian Ocean 15 days out and still very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active signal meandering over Africa at weak status moving to the Central Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and all but nonexistent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/10) A very weak Active (wet) pattern was over the West Pacific today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) tracking east and out of the KWGA on 10/30 with neutral to maybe a weak Inactive MJO signal developing in the far West KWGA 10/30 fading slowly and gone at the end of the model run on 11/19 with a neutral pattern in play.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/9)
Today a neutral MJO was over the KWGA but with moderate to strong west anomalies filling the KWGA. West anomalies are to dissipate with weak east anomalies taking over as a negative Equatorial Rossby Wave passes over the KWGA 10/10-10/19. After that west anomalies are to quickly build to strong status starting 10/16 on the dateline and building over the entirety of the West KWGA by 10/22 and in control holding from there through the end of the model run on 11/6 with a Active MJO signal starting 11/2. Of note: Moderate east anomalies started building over the Indian Ocean on 9/2 and are now at strong status today and forecast building through the end of the model run at very strong status. That coupled with building west anomalies in the West Pacific suggest massively falling air occurring somewhere near 90E (East Indian Ocean). This could be the falling branch of the Walker Circulation. The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently strong positive and building (the falling branch of the Walker Circulation). We're at the precipice of the start of a real El Nino pattern according to this model.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(10/10) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase was weakly filling the KWGA with weak to modest west anomalies in control. The Active Phase is to fade 10/14 then rebuilding weakly on 10/18 with modest west anomalies developing on 10/17 filling the KWGA moving forward at modest strength. On 11/7 a solid Active Phase of the MJO is to develop holding through 12/10 with strong west anomalies in control. A solid Inactive Phase develops 11/15 in the far west KWGA filling it through the end of the model run on 1/7/2024 but with west anomalies holding at modest to moderate strength. Also note that east anomalies started building at 70E (West Indian Ocean) on 9/7 and are forecast building through 11/5, holding through 12/13 then moderating some and holding through the end of the model run. This strong east and west anomaly pattern looks very much like falling air centered over the East Indian Ocean (110E) and the the downward branch of the Walker Circulation/+IOD. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA weakly on 6/24 and started building in earnest June 25 and then more solid starting Sept 15 and is continuing to build today. It is forecast building strongly from here forward but especially starting 10/12. Conversely clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent in mid-May and have continued solidifying today and are forecast building from here forward especially starting 10/10. This also suggest a fall and rising air pattern associated with the change in the Walker Circulation. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 180W with 3 contour lines (starting 7/14) and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 120W (over California) today (it started pushing east on 2/15). The primary contours leading edge is to slowly ease east to 105W (well past California) by 11/30 with it's center moving to 175W and a 4th contour line developing Nov 5. A 5th contour line is scheduled to develop on 12/5. The high pressure bias has dissolved and is no longer in the Pacific but started to build over the Maritime Continent on 10/2. A second high pressure contour is to develop on 12/3. 7/18 was the start of a major positive change in the development of El Nino with advent of the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies and that momentum is growing stronger each passing day. It appears a strong El Nino is finally starting to develop in a classical sense.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/10) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 172W (previously 169W). The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking easing east at 158W (previously 162W). The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 148W (previously 140W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was steady at 39m (25m 4 days earlier and at one point down to 65m) in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started in the far West Pacific at 173E associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #7 centered at 168W pushing east in a continuous stream feeding into Kelvin Wave #6 and other previous Kelvin Waves that have forming a broad pocket of +3-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 146W (152W on 9/11). +4-5 degree anomalies were building in coverage starting at 132W (previously 138W). The warm pool in the east (originating from Kelvin Waves #6, 5, 4...) is discharging to the surface while being backfilled by more warm water/Kelvin Wave #7. There's about 3 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific (Kelvin Wave #7) and building while tracking east with 2 deg anomalies from 135W and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 121W and points east of there originating from Kelvin Waves #6, #5 and #4 erupting into Ecuador. A steady stream of +1-2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream. In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting Kelvin Wave #8 is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific starting at 165E at +0-5 cms extending east into Ecuador. +5 cm anomalies were in the east from 160W east into Ecuador with 2 pockets of +10 cm anomalies imbedded to the south. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America up to the southern tip of Baja and south to North Peru. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/5) warm water continues at +0.5 degs from 177E and points east of there but +1.00-1.50 degs were all but gone over the East Pacific and shrinking in coverage while migrating east. A pocket of near neutral to slightly negative anomalies was between 140-160E and shrinking. The warm water flow had backed off some with nothing to force more warm water east (i.e. no Active MJOs occurring) in July. But a new Kelvin Wave is now in flight. Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/9) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador out to 115W and building in strength and coverage. A moderate warm signal continued west on the equator out to 130W (previously 155W). The warm pool is no longer growing westward and if anything has lost some coverage in the west while building in the east. Lesser heat extended west to the dateline and beyond. Heat also extends north up to Central Baja and south down into Patagonia. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but nowhere as strong as months past. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident in a fading cool pool from a point well off Southern Baja from 130W west to a point south of Hawaii at 175W. The Cool Pool is slowly collapsing. La Nina is all but gone now atmospherically over the Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/9): A small thin stream of warm anomalies were aligned on the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W. Otherwise mostly neutral temps prevailed. Perhaps some energy is being added to the warm surface pool. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15.
Hi-res Overview: (10/9) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets from Ecuador out to 110W and building. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. Everything is now looking like El Nino. And the La NIna enhanced cool pool off California is fading and drifting west, while weakening.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/10) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising some at +1.858 after steadily fading down to +1.527 (10/6) (previously +2.10 - 9/17) and have been falling since 8/31 when they were up to +3.073 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/10) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today temps were fading more at +1.070 after rising to +1.260 on 9/9. Weekly OISST were at +1.5 the past 2 weeks (10/4) after being up to +1.7 degs the week before and +1.6 degs 3 weeks in a row prior (starting 8/30) putting us in minimal strong El Nino status. Temps first time above +1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps bottomed out at at -1.25 degs in early Nov 2020, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug peaking at +1.6 degs in Sept.
Forecast (10/10) - Temps are to fade to +1.35 degs into mid-Oct then rising fast to +1.75 degs in Dec and Jan and solidly in strong El Nino territory before starting a slow fade thereafter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast falling to +1.10 degs in mid-Oct, then almost steady into mid-Nov then rising to +1.50 degs in Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into solid medium or low level strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 20, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.671 degs today and it's the 6th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.838 degrees in November then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.073 in Nov while the statistic models show +1.410 degrees. The dynamic models are running much hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is on the low end of the dynamic model range.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/10) the Daily Index was negative at -7.74 and has been negative for 51 days (starting 9/16). It was positive the previous 7 days, then negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25.The SOI has effectively been negative since 7/12. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising some at -12.257 after falling to -15.70 on 9/23. It fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at -11.68 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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