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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Friday, September 30, 2022 1:03 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.0 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/26 thru Sun 10/2

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Gale Forecast North of HI
SPac Going to Sleep - NPac Moving Slow

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Friday, September 30, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 9.4 secs from 177 degrees. Water temp 81.7 degs (Barbers Pt), 81.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 7.8 secs from 95 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 10.2 secs from 240 degrees. Wind southeast at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 72.0 degs, 69.6 (Topanga 103), 70.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 72.7 (Del Mar 153), 72.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 10.3 secs from 301 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.3 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 12.9 secs from 204 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) this buoy was down.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.9 ft @ 9.2 secs from 308 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temp 55.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.5 (Pt Reyes 46013), 58.6 (46026), 59.7 (SF Bar 142), 62.1 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 60.1 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (9/30) North and Central CA had windswell coming from the northwest at waist to maybe chest high and soft and warbled but with clean surface conditions. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up and mostly closed out but clean with a little intermixed northwest warble. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and clean with no wind but with some intermixed warble and a bit uneven. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and lined up and clean but inconsistent and soft. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and somewhat lined up but soft and uneven but clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest to shoulder high and somewhat lined up and clean with decent form but uneven. North San Diego had sets at waist high and somewhat lined up and soft and uneven with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist high and somewhat lined up and clean and soft. The East Shore was flat and and textured from modest southeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (9/30) California was getting some background south leftover swell from a gale previously under New Zealand on Wed (9/14) with 38 ft sea aimed northeast. reinforced by secondary fetch that developed over the Central South Pacific Sat-Sun (9/18) with up to 28 ft seas aimed northeast. Otherwise no swell was in the water tracking northeast. Looking forward no obvious swell producing weather systems are forecast for the South Pacific. Summer is pretty much over. Up north a gale developed off Japan but tracked fast to the north-northeast quickly moving into the Bering Sea on Fri (9/30) offering nothing. A small cutoff low is to develop north-northeast of Hawaii on Sat (10/1) producing 22 ft seas falling south into early Sun (10/2) offering some early season hope for Hawaii. Another small gale is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Thurs (10/6) potentially generating 20-22 ft seas aimed southeast. But the Northern Hemi is not making any great efforts to wake up yet.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Fri (9/30) the jetstream was tracking east across the far North Pacific on the 50N latitude line forming a steep pinched trough over the Northern Gulf being fed by 150 kts winds offering some very limited support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to become pinched off circulating northeast of Hawaii and holding together into Sun (10/2) offering some weak support for low pressure development while holding stationary then fading. Beyond 72 hours wind energy in the jet is to build over inland Southern Russia on Mon (10/3) ridging northeast over Kamchatka and the West Bering Sea at 130 kts then starting to fall southeast over the Northwestern Gulf forming a trough offering some support for gale development. That trough is to dig deep into the Gulf on Wed (10/5) but be pretty tight if not pinched holding into Thurs (10/6) before becoming cut off offering only limited support for gale development.


Surface Analysis
On Friday (9/30) no swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

 

Over the next 72 hours a cutoff low is to form in the Central Gulf targeting Hawaii (see Cut off Low below). Otherwise no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

Cutoff Low Pressure for Hawaii
On Fri AM (9/30) a cutoff low is to develop 1200 nmiles north-northeast of Hawaii producing north winds at 25 kts starting to get some traction aimed south. Fetch to build in the evening with north winds 30 kts with seas building from 15 ft over a small area at 43N 145W aimed south. Fetch is to start falling south Sat AM (10/1) at 30-35 kts from the north with seas 19 ft at 39N 146W targeting Hawaii well. Fetch is to hold in the evening while falling south at 35-40 kts with seas 23 ft at 39N 149W aimed south. The gale is to start fading Sun AM (10/2) with 30 kts northwest winds and 21 ft seas at 36N 150W aimed south and targeting the Islands. The low pressure systems is to fade and track east from there.

Oahu - North Shore: Potential swell arriving late on Sat (10/3) building to 4.5 ft @ 14 secs (6.5 ft). Swell slowly fading Sun AM (10/4) from 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon AM 910/5) fading from 2.8 ft @ 10 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 15-20 degrees. There is still much uncertainty given the low pressure system hasn't even formed yet.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sat AM (10/1) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early holding all day. No real windswell forecast.
  • Sun AM (10/2) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA holding all day.
  • Mon AM (10/3) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA holding all day except northwest to maybe 15 kts for Morro Bay southward in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
  • Tues AM (10/4) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA holding all day except northwest to maybe 15 kts for Morro Bay southward in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
  • Wed AM (10/5) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA holding all day. No windswell forecast. Cutoff low pressure is to be off the California coast.
  • Thurs AM (10/6) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA in the afternoon and 10 kts for Central CA. No real windswell is forecast.
  • Fri AM (10/7) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North Ca early and 10 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000 ft today and is forecast falling to 12,5000 ft on 10/1 and slowly fading to 11,500 ft at the end of the model run on 10/9.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that formed under New Zealand with secondary fetch under New Zealand just beyond is all but gone in Hawaii and California.

Over the next 72 hours starting Fri PM (9/30) a small gale is to try and build under New Zealand with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 28 ft at 54S 169E aimed east. On Sat AM (10/1) fetch is to building some at 35-45 kts tracking east with seas 31ft at 54S 173W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 29 ft at 51.75S 161.25W aimed east. Low odds of swell production. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is to try and develop in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues AM (10/4) producing 45 kts west winds over a tiny area and seas 22 ft at 50N 165W aimed east. Fetch and seas fading in the evening from 18 ft at 50N 165W aimed east. Theoretically this system is to redevelop Wed AM (10/5) with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 48.75M 166.25W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no clear swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Phase Underway
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected reinforcing in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading by Winter turning neutral. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/29) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/30) Strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for strong east anomalies holding over the KWGA through 10/5 then starting to fade to moderate status at the end of the model run on 10/7.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/29) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a continuation of a neutral MJO over the KWGA for the next 10 days turning moderately Active on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/30) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Maritime Continent and is to hold there for the next 15 days but potentially building to modest strength 15 days out. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase building steadily while moving to the far West Pacific at modest status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/30) A moderate Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was filling the East equatorial Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase moving steadily east and into Ecuador on 10/15. A weak Active Phase (wet air) is to push east and into the KWGA starting 10/6 and then slowly easing east pushing into Ecuador on 11/4. After that a modest Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the KWGA on 10/30 filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/9.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/29)
A weak Inactive signal was indicated today trying to push into the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for the Inactive Phase stalled in the far West KWGA through 10/9 then fading with east anomalies fading some to moderate strength on 10/4 then rebuilding on 10/7 holding through 10/21. At that time A solid Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east into the KWGA with east anomalies fading to weak status on 10/23 and holding through the end of the model run on 10/27.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(9/23) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today east anomalies were developing over the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO filling the KWGA. Strong east anomalies are forecast for the dateline with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through 10/4 then modest east anomalies are to hold in control through 10/16. But on 10/8 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing through the KWGA in earnest and in control 10/10 through 12/3 with west anomalies moving from the Maritime Continent 10/10 bleeding east to the dateline on 11/4 and building more filling the KWGA on 11/17 and building beyond. This would be a huge change if it develops as forecast. The key date is 10/31 for the demise of east anomalies and presumably La Nina. A weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to follow 11/1 through the end of the model run on 12/29 but with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 155E today. The second contour is to hold into October then collapse on 11/19 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 10/15 then starting to ease east from there to 170E at the end of the model run. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 130E today but is forecast retrograding to 125E on 10/10 then starting to ease east slightly at the end of the model run. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then dissipate completely by 10/31 (previously 10/19) with west anomalies taking over the KWGA beyond. This would be a huge step forward, if it develops.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/30) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 177E to 175E. The 26 degree isotherm was at 155W today, previously at 145W. The 24 deg isotherm had backtracked from Ecuador to 133W and was holding at 130W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge stuck at 155W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 120W and filling the area from 145W and points east of there but they appear to be fading and losing density. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/25 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 155W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 155W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific and starting to move east reaching to 165W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 150W with a previous broad core at -15 cms no gone with -10 cm anomalies holding from 100W to 150W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 155W to 100W and stationary but appear to be getting weaker and drifting east. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If something doesn't change soon, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/29) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A pocket of very cool water was erupting between Ecuador to 115W. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/29): A well defined pool of cold water has emerged in a solid line between Ecuador to 120W. The trend was clearly towards cooling.
Hi-res Overview: (9/29) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 80W to 120W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be building some on the equator with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were filling some at -1.324 after falling to -1.498 degs on 9/21 and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were falling slightly at -0.824 after peaking at -0.819 on 9/22 and have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept.
Forecast (9/30) - Temps are to be falling from about -1.0 degs in Sept to -1.25 degs in Oct holding in Nov then start a quick rise in Dec and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Feb 2023 and up to +0.40 degs in May and heading up from there presumably. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Dec. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottomed out at -1.00 in mid Aug and are to hold unchanged into Nov then starting a steady upward climb in Dec rising above La Nina threshold in Feb and rising from there forward to +0.40 degs in April/May. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The September 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.957 degs today. Temps to hold in Oct at -0.925 then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.658 in Dec and -0.445 in Jan rising to +0.172 in May. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/28) the Daily Index was falling at +11.11. Previous peaks were at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive but starting in July weakness is starting to take hold. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling slightly at +18.89 after peaking at +19.66 on. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was steady at +11.65 previously at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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