Surf Forecasts and Marine Weather - No Hype - Just the Facts!
Video Surf Forecast HERE (11/20)
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Video

Google

Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Convert from GMT:
 
 to timezone:

---

Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, September 30, 2021 3:06 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.3 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/27 thru Sun 10/3

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gulf Windswell for NCal
Small Gale Forecast for SPac

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, September 30, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) : Seas were 2.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 10.1 secs from 177 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 79.9 (Barbers Pt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 8.5 secs from 17 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 15.4 secs from 181 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 66.4 degs, 65.5 (Topanga 103), 65.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.0 (Del Mar 153), 69.3 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.3 ft @ 11.7 secs from 309 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 227 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.8 secs from 183 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.7 ft @ 12.5 secs from 268 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 10.7 secs from 303 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temp 57.0 (Pt Reyes 029), 57.6 (46026), 59.9 degs (SF Bar 142), and 59.9 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (9/30) North and Central CA had waves at chest high and soft and warbled but with no local wind and nearly glassy conditions. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up and soft and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest high and reasonably lined up when they came and clean with decent form but soft with steady northwest winds developing. Central Orange County had sets at 1 ft overhead and lined up and breaking hard with glassy conditions. Who'd have guessed? South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder high and lined up and clean and peeling but weak. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high and lined up and and clean with decent form. Hawaii's North Shore was effectively flat and clean. The South Shore was small with thigh high sets and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting thigh high east windswell and chopped from modest east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (9/30) in California no real swell was in the water tracking towards the state though remnant energy from a gale that developed in the Eastern Gulf on Sun-Mon (9/27) producing 24-27 ft seas aimed southeast was still lapping into Southern CA. A low pressure system produced 16 ft seas off the Pacific Northwest on Thurs (9/30) possibly resulting in windswell for breaks north of Pt Conception over the weekend. Another gale is forecast for the Northern Gulf on Fri-Sat (10/2) producing 33 ft seas aimed east and mostly beyond even the Northern CA swell window. But beyond that the dreaded high pressure ridge is to take over the North Pacific. But a gale remains forecast under New Zealand Fri-Sun (10/1) with 31-33 ft seas aimed well northeast. So there's some hope

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (9/30) the jet was tracking east across the North Pacific but displaced well north on the 53N latitude line with winds building to 170 kts tracking mainly over the Bering Sea then traversing the northern Gulf of Alaska before falling into Vancouver Island. There was very limited support for gale development in the Northeastern Gulf. Over the next 72 hours winds are to build to 150 kts over the extreme Northern Gulf Fri-Sat (10/2) offering better support for gale development there while a big ridge holds over the majority of the North Pacific. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (10/4) the trough in the Northeastern Gulf is to hold but starting to lose energy while becoming somewhat pinched but holding together while falling south off the Pacific Northwest Coast down to a point off Central CA on Thurs (10/7). This looks not so much like a swell producer but maybe some sort of weather producer beyond for CA and Oregon. On the last day of the model run a trough is forecast pushing east off Kamchatka possibly starting to break the ridge controlling the North Pacific.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/30) windswell from a low pressure system previously in the Eastern Gulf on Wed-Thurs (9/30) was radiating towards North and Central CA (see Gulf Low below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is to try and develop in the Northern Gulf on Fri AM (10/1) with 45 kt west winds building and seas developing from 23 ft at 47.5N 154W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 55-60 kts in the Northeastern Gulf lifting northeast fast with 33 ft seas at 53N 143W aimed east over a small area and barely in the NCal swell window at 319 degrees. On Sat AM (10/2) the main fetch is to be inland over North Canada with residual west winds at 30-35 kts solid filling the Northern Gulf with 18-20 ft seas at 53N 143W and barely in the NCal swell window. Additional west fetch is to hold in the evening at 30-35 kts in the Northwestern Gulf producing seas of 20 ft at 53N 145W still in the NCal swell window. This system is to dissipate by Sun AM (10/3). Something to monitor.

 

Gulf Low
On Wed (9/29) a low pressure system developed in the Eastern Gulf producing 30-35 kt west winds and 15 ft seas off Oregon. In the evening winds built in coverage at 30+ kts solid targeting Oregon up into British Columbia with seas 16 ft at 46N 138W and 15 ft over a broader area west of there. Thurs AM (9/30) 25-30 kt west winds were filling the Northern Gulf with 16-17 ft seas at 49N 139W aimed east. Sea t buoy 46005 just on the southern periphery of this low were 15-16 ft @ 11 secs at sunrise on Thurs (9/30). This system is to be gone by evening. Maybe some windswell to result propagating towards California.

North CA: Expect windswell arrival on Fri (10/1) building to 6.5 ft @ 11 secs later in the afternoon (7.0 ft). Windswell holding into Sat AM (10/2) at 6.0 ft @ 11 secs (6.5 ft). Residuals on Sun (10/3) fading from 4.5 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Typhoon Mindulle was 1,800 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan on Mon AM (10/27) with winds 95 kts tracking north-northwest. Mindulle tracked north peaking on Tues PM (9/28) with winds 110 kts, then mad a turn to the northeast and was accelerating on Thurs (9/30) off Southern Japan with winds 80 kts. Mindulle is to eventually reaching push north of the Western Aleutians later Sun (10/3) becoming locked in the Bering Sea. At this time there is no forecast trajectory putting this system back in exposed waters of the North Pacific.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Fri (10/1) northwest winds at 25-30 kts and a pressure gradient in control over North CA early and northwest winds 10 kts for Pt Reyes Bay southward. No change in the afternoon. Windswell from this fetch building some.
  • Sat (10/2) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino but north 5-10 kts south of there early and holding all day. Windswell from this fetch fading some.
  • Sun (10/3) north winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early but with light winds forecast from Pt Arena southward. North winds fading to 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino later and remaining light south of there. Windswell fading.
  • Mon (10/4) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts early for Cape Mendocino but light northwest south of there and fading to light for all of North and Central CA in the afternoon.
  • Tues (10/5) weak low pressure is to be building off the North Coast with light winds for the state all day.
  • Wed (10/6) weak low pressure is to move into Oregon early with light south winds for all of North and Central CA early holding all day. Limited local windswell expected. Light rain just off the coast of Cape Mendocino later.
  • Thurs (10/7) light south winds are forecast for North CA early and no winds for Central CA early. Light rain remotely possibly for the coast of North CA early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000 ft today (9/30) falling to 12,500 ft on 10/1 and holding. Then the freezing level falls on 10/6 down to 10,500 ft or less dropping to 7,500 ft on 10/8 and possibly falling more. Summer is over.

----

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/30) no swell was in the water and no swell producing weather systems were forecast.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Fri AM (10/1) producing a broad area of 45 kt southwest winds with seas building to 33 ft at 58S 174E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track east with 45 kts west winds and seas 33 ft at 59S 168W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (10/2) secondary fetch of southwest winds are to build southeast of New Zealand at 40 kts lifting northeast with seas 30 ft developing at 53S 172.5E aimed northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds to continue aimed well northeast with seas 32 ft at 50.5S 172.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sun AM (10/3) from 35 kts with seas 30 ft at 48.25S 164W aimed northeast. The gale is to possibly redevelop over the Central South Pacific beyond (see below). Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast pushing east-northeast off the Southern Kuril Islands on Wed (10/6) with 45 kts west winds pushing up to the Western Aleutians on Thurs (10/7) with 29 ft seas over a small area at 50N 173E. Low odds of anything meaningful to result. Will monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a secondary gale is to build from remaining fetch associated with the New Zealand Gale (see above) over the Central South Pacific on Mon PM (10/4) producing 40 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 51S 165W aimed northeast. On Tues AM 40-45 kt west winds are forecast with 32 ft seas building at 48.5S 152.5W aimed northeast. The gael is to start falling southeast in the evening with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 28-30 ft at 43S 142W aimed east to northeast. The gale is to falling hard southeast on Wed AM (10/6) no longer producing seas aimed at our forecast area.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Surging - Already Matching Last Years Strength
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with no Kelvin Wave induced warm water present. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the KWGA in later October and filling the KWGA after that. A high pressure bias is in control of the dateline but that is to be temporary, with the high pressure bias out of the KWGA by early Dec. It seems likely blocking high pressure is to hold over the dateline through late Fall, but then the forecast is undefined, but possibly improving as winter takes root.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/29) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (9/30) east anomalies were strong mainly over the dateline and modest east elsewhere in the KWGA and moderate east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies slowly fading to moderate strength mainly over the dateline and points east of there by 10/3 and weakening more down to modest strength limited over the dateline at the end of the model run on 10/7 with neutral anomalies trying to develop in the Western KWGA. But east anomalies are to still be filling the Pacific east of the dateline. There's no clear sign of the Active Phase of the MJO yet . This has been an unbelievably strong and long lasting Easterly Wind Burst that started 9/8 and has no end in sight.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/29) A weak Active MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive pattern rebuilding on day 5 of the model run at moderate strength then building to strong strength and holding on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the weak Active Phase slowly and steadily gaining ground and strength on days 5-10 of the model run and on day 15 at moderate to strong strength filling the KWGA. The 2 models are projecting opposite outcomes. Maybe the dynamic model is closer to reality now.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/30) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent and is forecast retrograding west over the Central Indian Ocean at weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase pushing slowly east to the West Pacific on day 15 of the model run at weak to modest status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/29) A weak Active Phase (wet air) was indicated pushing into the West Pacific today as the INactive Phase (dry air) was pushing east over Central America. The Active Phase (wet air) is to track east through the KWGA on 10/9 then continuing east reaching Central America on 10/29. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving east over the KWGA on 10/19 moving to the East Pacific on 11/8 at the end of the model run. A new modest Active Phase (wet air) is forecast moving over the KWGA at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/29) This model depicts a Inactive MJO signal south of California today with the Active Phase building over the Maritime Continent and moderate east anomalies still in control of the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies weakly dissipating with some weak west anomalies trying to build into the KWGA as the Active Phase passes through the area 10/4-10/19. But the Inactive Phase is to be right behind with east anomalies building in strong on 10/20 holding through the end of the model run on 10/27 with the Inactive Phase in the KWGA starting 10/24.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/30 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today a modest Active Phase of the MJO was pushing over the KWGA reaching almost to the dateline but with modest east anomalies from the previous Inactive Phase of the MJO still filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to slowly push east and filling the KWGA on 10/8 but with weak east anomalies still mostly filling the KWGA but with west anomalies finally developing in the KWGA 10/9-10/17. The Active Phase is to exit the KWGA on 10/27 with east anomalies still holding. . A weak MJO signal is to prevail until the next Active Phase moves across the KWGA 11/9-12/3 with west anomalies starting to take control over the whole of the KWGA and then to nearly a point south of California on 11/25. Weak west anomalies to prevail over the Pacific after that through the end of the model run on 12/28. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias (1 contour line) has developed on the dateline and is to hold while building east to 120W on 11/25 and holding. A second contour is forecast 10/24-12/4. A broad single contour low pressure bias is to develop 11/8 centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 130E then steadily moving east into the KWGA on 12/10 and filling 50% of it at the end of the model run. And the trailing edge of the high pressure bias is to be nearly east of the KWGA at the end of the model run. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is to slowly get shoved east and erode as the Active Phase and west anomalies and the low pressure bias try to take root in the KWGA by mid Nov. This suggests redevelopment of La Nina for now but possibly fading some come late Fall and early Winter.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/30) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was trying to rebuild at 161E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 175W to 178W. The 24 deg isotherm is stable at 126W. Warm water has receded west and has more or less stabilized there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were steady in coverage in the far West Pacific reaching east to only 168W. All the sensors are down between 155W-130W so some of the following analysis is suspect. Under that mostly cool anomalies were in control at up to -3 degs C at 155W 150 meters down steadily rising while reaching east. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was building in the east at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/25 indicates no warm water east of 170W with cool water east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending into Ecuador. A solid stream of cool water at -6 degs C was pushing up from 150 meters down at 160W and breaching the surface just at the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between the Galapagos to 175E and with a peak at -20 cms near 140W with -15 cms anomalies between 120W-150W. All positive anomalies were limited from 160E and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern has become well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina has made a return. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina is as strong as it was last year (-2.5 degs C) in late Nov, and positioned nearly identically (135W last year versus 141W this year).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/29) The latest images depict a thin steady stream of cool water on the equator from Peru tracking up the coast then turning west at Ecuador and building out to 160W. Markedly cooler water was in waves between the Galapagos to the dateline. Cooling was building along Chile and Peru too. A homogenous area of warm water was holding from Ecuador out along the equator to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of cooling water temps and La Nina. The question is - For how long?
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/29): Building warm waters were off Ecuador to 120W with cooling waters from 120W out to 180W.
Hi-res Overview: (9/29) A moderately broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator from the Galapagos to the dateline providing most coverage from 140W to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A clear cool outflow remains in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island. It is stable but weak. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence on the equator but fading north of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/30) Today's temps were toggling steady at -0.581 after falling to -0.927 on 9/2 beating the previous peak low reading of -0.746 on 8/15. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. The longterm trend has been towards falling back into negative territory.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/30) Today temps continued in a freefall down to -0.579 after rebounding from a previous low of -0.370 on 8/22, the bottom of a downward trend that held for the previous 7 weeks. Before that temps peaked at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/30) - Actuals per the model indicate temps were rising in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs in Aug. The forecast indicates temps to make a dramatic fall starting today down to -1.75 later in November and holding into early Jan 2022, then pushing up to +0.00 degs in June 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling to -1.45 degs in Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.41 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.57 degrees in Oct holding into Nov, then rising to -0.33 degs in Jan and neutral in March 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (9/30): The daily index was solid positive at 18.25 today, after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15 and +27.75 on 9/13. The 30 day average was rising to 9.19 after rising to +10.70 on 10/21. Before that is fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to +9.55 after peaking on 9/21 at 9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

470

.
Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Visit Mark Sponsler on Facebook Visit Stormsurf on Instagram Visit Stormsurf on YouTube
Copyright © 2022 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Calculator