Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 19.7 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 81.0 (Barbers Pt), 80.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 10.8 secs from 308 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 10.6 secs from 336 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 11.5 secs from 311 degrees. Wind northwest at 16-20 kts. Water temperature 61.7 degs, 59.9 (Harvest 071), 63.9 (Topanga 103), 61.5 (Long Beach 215), 63.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.5 (Del Mar 153), 64.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.2 ft @ 12.3 secs from 299 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.3 ft @ 12.4 secs from 282 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.2 secs from 259 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.1 secs from 223 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.5 secs from 226 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 13.2 secs from 248 degrees. Water temperature was 64.2 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 9.7 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 7.0 ft @ 10.4 secs from 315 degrees. Wind northwest 14-17 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 16-19 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and W at 6 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 58.6 (San Francisco 46026), 59.0 (SF Bar 142), 58.6 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 57.9 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 59.9 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (9/29) in North and Central CA waves were head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up but pretty heavily warbled and wonky. Protected breaks had sets at head high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble. At Santa Cruz surf was shoulder to head high on the peak and lined up and clean early but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form but a bit weak. Central Orange County had some sets at waist to stomach high and somewhat lined up and soft and clean with high fog early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist high on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form and clean. North San Diego had a some sets at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at chest to shoulder high on the peak and lined up with decent form when they came and fairly clean early but with some intermixed warble. The South Shore had some thigh to waist high sets on the peak and lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting wrap around north windswell at waist high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (9/29) swell was fading in California originating from a gale that developed 1500 nmiles north of Hawaii late Wed (9/25) tracking east while building with seas to 25 ft just off the Pacific Northwest Thurs PM (9/26). And another gale developed in the same place in the Gulf and was lifting hard northeast Sun-Mon (9/30) with seas to 45 ft barely in the NCal swell window. And yet another gale is forecast developing over the Northwestern Gulf on Sun (10/6) with 22 ft seas aimed southeast. Down south a tiny gale developed east of New Zealand on Wed (9/25) with 31 ft seas aimed well northeast. And another was developing behind that lifting northeast from under New Zealand on Sat-Sun (9/29) with seas to 29 ft. Nothing else of real interest to follow. There continues to be some action in the atmosphere.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (9/29) the jetstream was reasonably consolidated falling southeast off the Kuril Islands and then fully consolidated on the dateline forming a trough being fed by 130 kt winds offering support for gale formation there before ridging slightly over the Northwestern Gulf then falling southeast over the Eastern Gulf with winds to 150 kts forming another trough poised to push onshore over Vancouver Island. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to fall southeast into early Tues (10/1) offering some support for gale formation then rebuilding in the Northern Gulf on Wed-Thurs (10/3) with 140 kts winds again being infused into it from the Bering Sea. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to be fairly consolidated on Thurs (10/3) tracking east over the Aleutians with winds 140-150 kts then lifting north over the East Bering Sea before quickly falling south over the Eastern Gulf forming a trough being fed by 150-160 kts winds offering support for gale formation before pinching off and pushing inland over Vancouver Island late Fri (10/4). At that time back to the west the jet is to start looking good fully consolidated over the dateline with winds 160 kts falling gently into a developing trough over the Northwestern Gulf offering support for gale formation with the trough weakening some and pushing into the Northern Gulf on Sun (10/6) still supporting gale formation. On Sun AM (10/6) the jet is to be fully consolidated running across the width of the North Pacific on the 45N latitude line with winds 120-130 kts in pockets looking very much like a typical Fall pattern.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (9/29) swell from a gale previously over the Northeastern Gulf was fading in California (see Northeast Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sun AM (9/29) a gale was trying to develop 1200 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 22 ft at 40N 166W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to start lifting northeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 28 ft at 42N 155W aimed east and southeast. On Mon AM (9/30) the gale is to be lifting northeast fast with 45-50 kt northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 47N 149W aimed southeast and 28 ft at 47.5N 145W aimed east and northeast at Canada. In the evening west winds to build to 50-60 kts with seas building to 45 ft at 53N 144.25W aimed only at Canada but with 38 ft seas at 52N 146W aimed southeast and barely on the 319 degree track to North CA. On Tues AM (10/1) west winds to be holding stationary but fading at 45-50 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas 39 ft at 54.5N 140.25W and 30 ft seas barely in the NCal swell window. This system to be well east of our forecast area after that moving inland over Canada. Something to monitor.

Northeast Gulf Gale
A small gale developed in the Central Gulf on Wed PM (9/25) producing 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas building from 17 ft at 43.5N 157.25W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (9/26) 45 kt northwest winds were off the Pacific Northwest with seas building fast from 21 ft at 45.5N 144.5W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds were 45-50 kts nearly impacting Vancouver Island with seas 25 ft at 48.75N 133W and mostly shadowed relative to North CA with swell angle 329 degrees. The gale was inland over BC after that. Small swell to result.

North CA: Swell fading Sun (9/29) and being overtaken by local windswell at 5 ft @ 10-11 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 308 moving to 315 degree

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (9/30) a pressure gradient is to be holding over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 30 kts there but northwest 10 kts for nearshore waters from Bodega Bay southward including Central CA early though 20+ kts well off the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest at 15 kts down to the Golden Gate and 10 kts south of there but 20+ kts well offshore. Windswell building some.
Tues AM (10/1) the gradient fades with northwest winds 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and and nearshore winds south of Pt Arena northwest 5-10 kts down to Pt Conception. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell fading some.
Wed AM (10/2) northwest winds hold at 25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts south of Pt Arena there. No change in the afternoon but north winds building to 30 kts for Cape Mendocino. Windswell holding.
Thurs AM (10/3) the gradient fades with northwest winds 25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5-10 kts down to the Golden Gate. Northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient collapses with northwest winds 15 kts well west of Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts from most of the North and Central CA coast. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (10/4) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell expected.
Sat AM (10/5) no change forecast early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for most of Central CA.
Sun AM (10/6) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA. NO windswell forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0 , 0 and 0 inches inches respectively. Precip limited to British Columbia and not pushing south into the US.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14.000 ft or greater until Fri (10/4) with it falling to 12,500 ft and holding steady beyond. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 55-60 degrees through Fri (10/4) then falling to 55 degrees and 45-50 degrees starting Sun (10/6) and beyond. A slow cooling trend looks likely consistent with the change in seasons.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Tiny swell is radiating northeast from a gale previously just east on North New Zealand (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sat AM (9/28) another gale started developing south of New Zealand producing southwest winds at 40-45 kts and seas building from 25 ft at 56.75S 166.5E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts and seas 29 ft over a small area at 56S 173.5E aimed northeast. The gale is to grow in coverage while lifting north on Sun AM (9/29) with 35-40 kt south winds and seas 27 ft at 52.25S 177W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 26-27 ft at 50S 171.2W aimed northeast. Mon AM (9/30) the gale is to be pushing well north while fading with 35 kt south winds and seas fading from 25-26 ft at 43S 166W aimed north. Something to monitor.

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed Tues PM (9/25) off North New Zealand producing south winds at 45 kts with seas building from 26 ft at 46S 174W aimed northeast over a tiny area. On Wed AM (9/26) the gale was lifting northeast with 40 kt southwest winds over a small area and seas 31 ft at 41S 171W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading fast in the evening from 35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 38S 166W aimed northeast. Tiny swell is radiating northeast.

Oahu: Expect small swell arriving on Mon (9/30) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Tues (10/1) to 1.9 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3,0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (10/2) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (10/3) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds Fri (10/4) to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (10/5) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that. Swell Direction: 220 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds Fri (10/4) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (10/5) from 1.8 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that. Swell Direction: 220 degrees.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours on Sat PM (10/5) some sort of a gale low is to develop while falling southeast from the Bering Sea into the Northwestern Gulf with northwest winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas 21 ft at 50N 170W aimed southeast. More of the same Sun AM (10/6) with northwest winds just barely clear of the Eastern Aleutians at 30-35 kts and seas 22 ft at 50.75N 167.5W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours the models are hinting at some sort of a gale developing over the deep Central South Pacific on Fri (10/4) with southwest winds 40 kts and seas 29 ft at 58.5S 159.75W aimed northeast. Will believe it when it happens.

ENSO Neutral Trying to Turn to La Nina
Models Weaken Strength of La Nina
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024 as La Nina builds underneath that background state.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/28) Water sensors are down in the east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/29) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA with moderate west anomalies from the dateline and points east of there. The forecast suggests east anomalies are to build in coverage at moderate strength filling the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 10/15. A significant Inactive MJO is to continue.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/28) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts it fading some on day 5 of the model run then collapsing with a neutral pattern on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/29) - The models depicts the Active Phase was weak over Africa. The statistic mode has it moving slowly east to the East Indian Ocean over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts then same thing but it moving east faster, reaching the Central Maritime Continent 2 weeks out. The long range models suggest it moving to the West Pacific and very weak 1 month out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/29) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) in control of the KWGA. it is to push east and out of the KWGA on 10/9 with a modest Active MJO (wet air) setting up on 10/14 holding through 10/29 then easing east of the KWGA while building. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to again start moving over the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/8.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/23) Stale Data - Today the Active Phase was tracking east over the East KWGA from 150E and points east of there producing mostly only weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase tracking east and east of the KWGA on 10/2 but with west anomalies developing only over the east KWGA 9/24-9/29 then collapsing with east anomalies returning. The Inactive MJO is to develop 10/4 filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/21 with east anomalies building to near strong status 10/17 through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/29) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active MJO was fading over the KWGA and pushing east with west anomalies mostly filling the East KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active MJO sliding east and gone on 10/1 with east anomalies in control. A moderate Inactive Phase is forecast 9/29-10/29 with moderate east anomalies in control of the KWGA. Another Active Phase is to develop in the west starting 10/17 and pushing east through 12/2 with west anomalies filling the KWGA (starting as early as 10/20 over a small area then expanding) and east to 170E and east anomalies east of there but weakening over time. West anomalies are to be filling the Pacific 11/20 with a weak MJO pattern indicated. This continues to be an upgrade from model runs on mid-August and earlier. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour is forecast 10/17-11/14. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 10/17 with 1 contour over a thin area holding unchanged through the end of the model run but never having a second contour line. This is a major upgrade from previous runs (since Aug) suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts if not bordering on ENSO neutral.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/29) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was pushing east to 174E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 174W. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 167W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific but +2 degs in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 155W reaching to the surface at 160W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/25 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 160W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline and neutral to the dateline. The residuals of the warm pool are quickly collapsing. The density of warm anomalies west of there are building limited to 160E and points west of there. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 110W-170W with a pocket of -15 cm anomalies were at 120W-150W and -20 cms at 135W. This suggests a cooling trend is building. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/25) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug. Then cool anomalies again rebuilt over the equatorial Pacific early Sept from 180W to Ecuador and were building still today with a very cold pocket at -2.0-2.5 at 140W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/28) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream wast on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and broadest from 120W to 150W but collapsing east and west of there. but this still looks like the first real sense of a clear La Nina pattern this year. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/28): A couple of weak pockets of cooling were indicated at 115W, 125W and 140W but mostly warming temps were warming from Ecuador to the dateline. A La Nina pulse finally seems to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/29) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rebounding at -1.277 after falling hard to -1.468 (9/27) and have been fading the last 10 days but previously steady (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/29) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps continued rising some at -0.762 after falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and have been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.5 degs (week of 9/18) the first time solidly negative. Previously temps were near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly values were -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug and -0.5 in late Sept. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (9/29) - Temps to fall to -0.80 mid-Oct, peaking down at -1.20 degs in late Nov 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.75 in Oct then down to -1.0 degs in Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/29) the Daily Index was positive at +2.26 today and has been for 3 days running, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling at +0.86 and has been positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching downwards -0.15 and neutral the last month. Thee first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.