BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, September 25, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (9/25) in North and Central CA surf was waist to chest high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean but with some warble intermixed. Protected breaks were up to waist high and lined up if not closed out and clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to thigh high and weakly lined and soft and clean early. In Ventura County waves were knee high on the sets and not really lined up and clean and very soft. Central Orange County had sets at thigh high weak and mushed but clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high and very inconsistent and weakly lined up with decent form and real clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high and weakly lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had sets at shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean early. The South Shore had sets at up to shoulder high and lined up and clean and soft early but super inconsistent. The East Shore was getting northerly windswell at thigh to waist high and clean with light offshore/south winds early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (9/25) Hawaii and California were getting no swell of interest other than some form of weak background northwest windswell from the Gulf of Alaska in Hawaii and North California. Up north a gale developed over the North Dateline region moving to the Northwestern Gulf on Tues-Thurs (9/25) producing 24-27 ft seas aimed east and southeast. Perhaps another gale to develop falling southeast from the Northwestern Gulf Sun-Mon (9/29) with 18 ft seas targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. And of more interest a tropical system it to potentially redevelop while recurving northeast from off Japan Sun (9/28) with up to 48 ft seas aimed east then turning east over the North Dateline region Mon (9/29) with 30-35 ft seas aimed east. It seems Fall is trying to get started. No activity is forecast for the South Pacific.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (9/25) the jet was generally tracking east on the 45N latitude line moving across the width of the North Pacific with winds strongest from the North Dateline region over the Northern Gulf at 180 kts with a weak trough trying to develop over the Dateline but not yet supporting gale formation and a weak ridge over the Northern Gulf. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to build some over the Northwestern Gulf on Fri (9/26) then digging further south on Sat (9/27) with winds building to 170 kts then pinching off offering some support for gale development. That trough is to rebuild some on Mon (9/29) sagging south with the leading edge of the jet pushing over North CA associated with a front there, then fading out. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (9/30) additional wind energy at 150 kt winds are to be building in the jet over the Northwestern Gulf eventually producing another trough in the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs (10/2) offering more hope for gale development. The transition to Fall is starting.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/25) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or CA and no swell was in waters of the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale previously over the Northwestern Gulf is to be pushing into mainly the US West Coast north of Pt Conception (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

Also extratropical remnants of Neoguri are to be recurving northeast over the far Northwest Pacific (see Tropical Update).

Northwestern Gulf Gale
On Tues AM (9/23) a gale developed over the North Dateline region just south of the Central Aleutians producing 35+ kt west winds and seas 21 ft at 50N 175E just south of the Aleutians. In the evening northwest winds built to 40 kts mostly in the Bering Sea but with some spilling south into the Northwestern Gulf with seas 25 ft at 51.5N 173.5W aimed southeast. That system plodded east on Wed AM (9/24) with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 26-27 ft at 52N 162W aimed east likely producing some degree of small swell radiating southeast. In the evening northwest winds were fading from 35 ks and seas 25 ft at 52.5N 155W aimed east-southeast. Fetch was fading out Thurs AM (9/25) from 30 kts with seas fading from 22 ft at 53N 149W aimed east. Something to monitor mainly relative to the US West Coast north of Pt Conception.

Oahu: Minimal sideband swell arriving on Fri (9/26) building to 1.5 ft @ 15 secs at sunset (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (9/27) at 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat afternoon (9/27) building to 3.7 ft @ 14 secs at sunset (5.0 ft). Swell holding Sun AM (9/28) at 4.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft) fading slowly in the afternoon. Residuals on Mon AM (9/29) fading from 3.6 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 308-311 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Typhoon Neoguri on Tues AM (9/23) was located 850 nmiles east-southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 75 kts drifting slowly east-northeast. Neoguri drifted to the northeast Wed PM (9/24) with winds fading to 70 kts and seas 33 ft at 33.5N 156E aimed east. Given its slow forward motion and track to the northeast, fetch might get some traction aimed to the northeast perhaps pushing up the 292 degree great circle path to Hawaii but likely shadowed by Kauai relative to the North Shore of Oahu. On Thurs AM (9/25) the storm was easing west with winds 60 kts at tropical storm force and fading to 55 kts in the evening. Beyond starting Fri AM (9/26) Neoguri is to start moving east turning extratropcial with winds 55 kts and accelerating east in the evening with winds 60 kts. Neoguri is rebuild while accelerating east-northeast Sat AM (9/27) with winds 70 kts and approaching the dateline Sun AM (9/28) with winds still 70 kts and seas supposedly 45 ft at 39.75N 168E aimed east. Neoguri is to be approaching the dateline Sun PM (9/28) tracking northeast with winds 60 kts and seas 30 ft at 43.25N 174.25E aimed east. Neoguri is to be over the North Dateline region on Mon AM (9/29) with winds 65 kts and seas 36 ft over a tiny area at 46.75N 177.75W aimed east. In the evening the extratropical remnants of Neoguri are to be moving in the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 48.75N 168.5W aimed east and fading from there. Something to monitor.

Hurricane Narda on Tues AM (9/23) was positioned 450 nmiles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 75 kts tracking west and of no interest to the US West Coast. But on Sat AM (9/27) Narda is to make a turn to the northwest with winds 80 kts 900 nmiles south-southwest of Southern CA and then heading due north in the evening positioned 750 nmiles south of San Diego with winds 70 kts. On Sun AM (9/28) Narda is to have winds 55 kts 700 nmiles south of San Diego and aimed directly at the Southern CA coastline. The remnants of Narda are to stall Mon PM (9/29) 500 nmiles south-southwest of San Diego while dissipated with winds 30-35 kts. Some degree of small swell is possible for Southern CA if this system does as is forecast. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/25) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii and no meaningful swell was in the immediate water of those locations.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. That said the models suggest some sort of a gale developing just south of New Zealand on Sun PM (9/28) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 51S 174E aimed northeast but only over a tiny area and fading fast. Fetch and seas to fade from there. No swell to result.

Otherwise no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is to develop over the Northwestern Gulf Sun AM (9/28) with 35 kts west winds and seas building. In the evening the gael is fall southeast with winds 35-40 kts and seas 18 ft at 45N 157W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (9/29) northwest winds to be 30 kts well off North CA with seas fading from 16 ft. The low is to fade from there. No meaningful swell to result.

Some form of low pressure to possibly develop off Oregon on Tues PM (9/30) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft at 45.5N 132.75W aimed southeast. The gale is to move inland after that.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere...Yet
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/24) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/25) Today modest east anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates modest to moderate east anomalies are to take over the KWGA 9/27 holding into 10/5. After that weak west anomalies to again push into the West KWGA on 10/4 filling it to 150E through 107 then pushing over the dateline 10/7 through the end of the model run on 10/11.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (9/25) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 174E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 173W. The 24 degree isotherm has steady at 120W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface east of 170E. And cold anomalies down to -3 degrees at 140W were at depth at the thermocline level and cool across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/20 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline east of 160W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/20) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to the dateline and up to -15 cms at 115W. Heights were weakly above normal from 160E and points west of there. The cool pool is building over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/20) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 150W to 100W. Warm anomalies were west of 172W. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/24) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 175E and fading in energy from Ecuador to 110W and otherwise consistent in density across it's width. This looks like a clearly developing weak La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/24): Temps were warming from the Galapagos to 110W and cooling from 110W to 160W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/25) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling at -0.591 after rising to -0.109 (9/23) and have rising some since 9/14. Temps have been at roughly -0.8 there since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/25) Today's temps were steady at -0.968. Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising some at -0.4 as of 9/17. Previously temps were -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.32 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.46 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started fading in mid-July and down to -0.3 in Aug and -0.5 in Sept.
Forecast (9/23) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall down to -0.70 mid-Oct, -0.85 Nov, rising -0.75 mid-Dec and technically neutral mid-Jan at -0.5 degs then neutral (0.0) in Mar 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to -0.75 degs then following the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.623 in OND (previous model run -0.406), then rising to -0.501 in DJF and 0.013 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.710 OND then rising to +0.389 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.526 NDJ rising to -0.088 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast falling to weak La Nina in Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/25) the Daily Index was positive at 1.43 but has been generally weak positive the last month.
The 30 day average was falling at +2.92 and has been generally rising from +1.53 a month ago.
The 90 day average was steady at +3.08 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly from +2.65 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was rising slightly at -3.23 after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table