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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, September 10, 2019 1:39 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 3.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/9 thru Sun 9/15

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 New Zealand Swells Hitting CA
No Gales Forecast Beyond North or South

On Tuesday, September 10, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 4.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 15.0 secs from 170 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 6.0 secs from 35 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 16.1 secs from 199 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 68.7 degs (46086). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.1 ft @ 18.7 secs from 206 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.9 secs from 213 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.7 ft @ 16.0 secs from 202 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 15.7 secs from 204 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 16.1 secs from 199 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 53.1 degs (013) and 62.2 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Tuesday (9/10) in North and Central CA local north windswell as producing waves at waist to chest high and warbled with some stray whitecaps from northwest winds. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and reasonably clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets and clean and lined up but a little slow but much improved over days past. In Southern California/Ventura set waves were thigh to waist high and warbled from wind off the coast though local wind was calm. In North Orange Co waves were chest high coming from the south but pretty jumbled and warbled from south winds early. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks had waves to head high and cleaner but still a bit warbled from south wind. North San Diego had surf at waist high on the sets and clean and pretty warbled from south wind. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was still getting New Zealand swell with waves waist to chest high and clean and well rideable when the sets came. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from solid easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (9/10) in California New Zealand swell was still hitting. For Hawaii the same New Zealand was starting to fade but still present. Swell was generated by a series of gales that previously developed under New Zealand. the third in the series developed Fri-Sun (9/1) producing up to 41 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Swell from it is fading in CA. And yet a fourth developed Sun-Tues (9/3) with seas building to 43 ft aimed northeast nearly traversing the South Pacific. That swell is starting to hit CA and fading in HI. But in all cases, fetch size was small. After that a weak storm and swell pattern is forecast both North and South. A small gale remains forecast to develop in the Northern Gulf on Tues-Wed (9/11) producing 18 ft seas aimed east. And maybe a small gale to develop off Kamchatka on Fri-Sat (9/14). But in both cases no real swell to result. The transition towards Fall is slowly occurring.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
No real swell was hitting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf starting Tues AM (9/10) producing west winds at 30 kts lifting northeast. In the evening 35 kt west winds are to start wrapping around it's core aimed east with seas building to 18 ft at 49N 149W aimed east. On Wed AM (9/11) northwest winds are to be fading from 25-30 kts targeting the US West Coast with seas 18 ft at 49N 144W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch to fade from 20-25 kts from the northwest with seas fading from 15 ft at 48N 139W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.


Windswell Outlook
On Tues (9/10) northwest winds were 15 kts in patches over a broad area along and off the PAcific Northwest and down over the North and Central CA Coast offering limited odds for windswell production. East trades are to be fading east of Hawaii at 15 kts only in a few patches offering little to no windswell production potential. On Wednesday (9/11) north winds to be 15+ kts along the coast of North and Central CA producing only very limited short period windswell for California. No trades of interest are forecast relative to Hawaii resulting in no windswell production there. Thurs (9/12) north winds are to be focused on North CA at 15-20 kts resulting in small junky windswell at exposed breaks. No east fetch of interest is forecast for Hawaii. On Fri (9/13) the usual summer time pressure gradient is to start building a small fetch of north winds at 20+ kts pushing south along the North CA coast and off the coast of Central CA offering some limited windswell production potential. No easterly fetch of interest is forecast relative to Hawaii.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
Typhoon Faxai On Tues AM (9/10) remnants of this system were tracking northeast off North Japan and are expected to become assimilated with a cold core low developing over Kamchatka with the merged system pushing over the North Dateline region Wed-Thurs (9/12) mostly in the Bering Sea offering nothing obvious.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tues (9/10) north winds were 10-15 kts for NCal and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. On Wed (9/11) north winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA all day. Thursday (9/12) north winds to be 20 kts for Pt Arena but 10 kts or less south of Bodega Bay all day. On Fri (9/13) no change is forecast but north winds building to 20+ kts for all of North CA later but still 10 kts or less over all of Central CA. On Sat (9/14) north winds to be up to 20+ kts for all of North CA but light early for Central CA but building to 20 kts over Central CA nearshore waters late afternoon. On Sun (9/15) north winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central CA early but fading for NCal to 10 kts mid-morning while building in Central CA to 15-20 kts later mainly near Pt Conception. On Mon (9/16) light winds are forecast all day. On Tues (9/17) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA all day.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).


South Pacific

On Tuesday (9/10) the jetstream was split but with the southern branch producing a small pinched and weak trough reaching the southern tip of New Zealand and offering no real support for gale development, then falling southeast from there pushing east down to 65S just east of the dateline and falling further south from there over Antarctic Ice and offering no support for gale development over the majority of the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours the same general pattern is forecast but with a little bit more clearly defined trough setting up under New Zealand later on Thurs (9/12). But that trough is to still be very weak being fed by only 70 kts winds offering no clearly defined support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to collapse on Sat (9/14) with a generalized ridging pattern setting up over the entirety of the South Pacific with the jet tracking east down at 70S and fully over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development and holding that way 180 hrs out (till Tues 9/17).

Surface Analysis  
The third gale in a series developed under New Zealand tracking northeast (See Third New Zealand Gale below). And yet a 4th gale developed behind that (See 4th new Zealand Gale below). Swell from these systems is either hitting or tracking tracking northeast mainly targeting California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


Third New Zealand Gale
Yet a third small gale developed under New Zealand on Fri AM (9/30) with 50 kts southwest winds and seas on the increase from 30 ft at 57S 168E aimed east. In the evening southwest winds were 50-55 kt over a modest area aimed northeast with seas 44 ft over a tiny area at 55S 179.5E aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (8/31) 45 kt southwest winds were in-play with 36 ft seas at 50.5S 169W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 40 kts southwest winds were fading aimed northeast with 33 ft seas at 48.5S 159W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (9/1) the gale was fading with barely 35 kts southwest winds remaining and 29-30 ft seas fading at 47S 151W aimed northeast. More swell is to be radiating northeast.

Southern CA: Swell fading Tues (9/10) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (9/11) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Tues (9/10) from 2.1 ft 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (9/11) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 206-211 degrees


4th New Zealand Gale
And yet a larger 4th gale is to follow under New Zealand on Sat PM (8/31) producing a broad area of 35-40 kt west winds and seas building from 29 ft at 55S 155E aimed east. On Sun AM (9/1) a broad fetch of southwest winds developed with a core at 50 kts just south of New Zealand with 35 ft seas building at 56S 170.5E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was lifting solidly northeast with 50-55 kt southerly fetch developing with 43 ft seas building at 53S 177.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (9/2) a solid fetch of 50 kt southwest winds were pushing northeast with seas 43 ft at 50S 166W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading and pushing northeast at 45 kts with seas 41 ft at 48S 157.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (9/3) southwest winds were 35 kts over a broad area in the Central South Pacific with 35 ft seas at 45.5S 151W. Fetch is to be fading fast from 30-35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 29 ft at 45S 143W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Residuals fading on Tues (9/10) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees

Southern CA: Swell building on Tues (9/10) to 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (9/11) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/12) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (9/13) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (9/14) fading from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees

North CA: Swell building on Tues (9/10) to 2.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (9/11) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/12) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (9/13) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (9/14) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no obvious swell producing weather system are forecast.


Windswell Outlook
On Sat (9/14) high pressure is to build in the Gulf at 1030 mbs ridging into North CA producing north winds at 20-25 kts well off the Pacific Northwest and then again along the North CA coast at 20+ kts early pushing down over Central CA later resulting in small local raw windswell. No east fetch is forecasts for Hawaii. On Sun (9/15) a broad area of 20 kts northwest winds to remain off the Pacific Northwest with 15-20 kts northwest winds over north and Central CA early but fading later relative to CA resulting in some degree of limited raw local windswell for CA. no fetch or windswell is forecast for Hawaii. On Mon (9/16) north winds at 20 kts to hold off the Pacific Northwest but nothing for CA possibly resulting in longer distance windswell radiating down into exposed breaks in North and Central CA. No east fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Tues (9/17) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts over all of North and Central CA offering only junky short period windswell production potential. No east fetch is forecast for Hawaii offering no windswell production potential.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


SSTs Start Falling Again Over East Equatorial Pacific

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/9) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds at moderate strength extending west to the dateline. But west of there solid west winds were blowing in the core of the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central equatorial Pacific and moderately westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (9/10) moderate plus westerly anomalies were just past their peak focused in the core of the KWGA and with some flavor of westerly anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast is for westerly anomalies steadily fading and gone by 9/16 with weak east anomalies building in the core of KWGA at the end of the model run on 9/17. A fading Active Phase of the MJO is forecast over the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/9) A moderate Active MJO pattern was in control of the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates it is to hold for the next 5 days, then start fading quickly and returning to a neutral pattern at day 10 and holding through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the same thing initially, but turning towards a weak Inactive Phase at days 10-15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak to modest in strength over the far West Pacific and is to migrate steadily east to the Central Pacific 15 days out and getting steadily weaker to very weak status. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase migrating to the West Pacific then backtracking some and weak at day 15 of the model run and stalling in the far West Pacific.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (9/10) This model depicts a moderate Active Phase over the West Pacific today and is to slowly ease east moving over the Central Pacific and into Central America on 9/30. A moderate Inactive MJO is to set up over the far West Pacific 9/25 easing east and moving over Central America at the end of the model run on 10/20. A weak Active Phase is to start building over the West Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/9) This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal present over the KWGA today but with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts these west anomalies building in coverage completely filling the entire equatorial Pacific by 9/13 then weakening some but holding in coverage through the end of the model run on 10/7.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/10) This model depicts a weak Active MJO pattern starting to build over the KWGA today and with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has a weak Active MJO signal holding from now through 10/3 focused mainly over the dateline and points east of there while a weak Inactive Phase develops in the West Pacific 9/21 moving through the KWGA through 10/26 followed by another very weak Active MJO 10/24-11/11. After that a very weak Inactive Pattern is to follow through the end of the model run (12/8). During that entire period weak west anomalies are to hold in the core of the KWGA if not building pretty solid starting 10/28 through 11/22. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is building yet more today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single contour line is to hold while a second contour line develops 10/3 and possibly a third contour line on 11/21 while a high pressure bias builds in the Indian Ocean starting 10/25. If this pattern holds into early Fall it would constitute a significant upgrade. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to maybe rebuild. That is not believable at this early date given the water temperature anomaly situation over the equatorial West (cool) and East Pacific (cooler) today.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/10) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small area retrograding west to 176E while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding to 175W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 120W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the West Pacific at +1-2 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline) and indicative of a possible stationary Kelvin Wave #5 there reaching east to 150W. East of there in the East Pacific NO warm anomalies were present but some warm anomalies were building at the surface from Ecuador to 130W reaching down 50 meters likely indicative of fading trades there. A cool pocket was rebuilding with a core at -4 degs down 100 meters at 125W and rebuilding down some compared to days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/31 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small stationary Kelvin Wave under the Dateline with cool anomalies from 150W into Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface. Weak shallow warming was at the surface from Ecuador to 110W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/5) A small area of weak positive anomalies were on the dateline from 155E to 165W. Negative anomalies were still present pushing west from Ecuador at -5 cms reaching to 150W and -10-15 cms centered on the equator at 130W forming a cool triangle reaching up into Central America and down to Chile suggestive of La Nina and a cool wave pushing west from the Ecuadorian Coast.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (9/9) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies are present north of the equator from Central America west to 140W and holding in coverage and then with broader coverage west of 140W to the dateline. Of more interest was a pool of cool waters building today along the coasts of Chile up to Peru then streaming west on the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 160W solidly suggestive of La Nina. A previous choking pattern between the Galapagos and 110W was fading, with cool waters again getting the upper hand. There were some warm anomalies south of the equator extending from just off Peru west to the dateline but they were very weak today centered on 10S. There has been a steady push towards the evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific with La Nina developing there.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/9): A mixed pattern of warming and cooling has set up on the equator from Ecuador to 145W with the trend towards cooling, the inverse of the previous trend where warming had the upper hand. Regardless, the balance has been towards cooling over the past 2 months.
Hi-res Overview: (9/9) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west starting with a broad bubble of cool water along Chile and Peru then streaming west off Ecuador to 175W indicative of La Nina. A previous warming water choking pattern on the equator between 90W to 115W was fading. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, mainly north of the equator and all but gone south of the equator starting to form a cool triangle from South Chile northwest to the dateline then to Ecuador. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be trying to develop, but very haltingly.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/10) Today's temps were steady after falling hard and at -0.894 degs, and have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/10) Temps were rising after a previous steady negative trend, today at -0.220 degs after bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/10) The model indicated a cooling trend set up with temps down to -0.05 degs in early August. The forecast has temps rising starting Sept 1 and continuing into early Oct reaching +0.40 degs then rising from there to +0.50 degrees by late Dec. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start slow fading slowly to +0.30 degs in early May 2020. According to this model a neutral to weak El Nino like sea surface temperature pattern is forecast.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.30 degs in August, and are to hold in the +0.50 range into Dec/Jan, then fading slightly to +0.45 in May/April 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (9/10): The daily index was negative today at -11.11. The 30 day average was negative at -9.63. The 90 day average was falling at -7.72, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): July +0.82, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (9/8):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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