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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Friday, September 9, 2022 12:41 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.0 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/5 thru Sun 9/11

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Secondary SE Pac Swell Arriving in CA
Small New Zealand Swell Targets HI - SE Pac Gale Developing

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Friday, September 9, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 14.7 secs from 189 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 81.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 8.9 secs from 236 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 10.3 secs from 150 degrees. Wind southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 71.4 degs, 72.5 (Topanga 103), 72.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 69.1 (Del Mar 153), 74.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 74.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.9 ft @ 16.6 secs from 182 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 16.7 secs from 199 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 16.0 secs from 199 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 16.7 secs from 181 degrees. Water temp 73.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.0 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 6.3 ft @ 10.3 secs from 324 degrees and south swell 2.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 206 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 8-12 kts. Water temp 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (Pt Reyes 46013), 56.7 (46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 64.4 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 58.5 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (9/9) North and Central CA had set waves at chest high on the sets coming from the north and chopped with whitecaps coming from the south. Protected breaks were waist high or so and fairly clean but weak and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was maybe chest high on the sets and clean and soft and wonky from tide and interaction from windswell. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest high on the sets and lined up with decent form when it came but with some warble in the water though wind was calm. Central Orange County had sets at chest to head high and lined up and clean and a bit closed out coming from the south but very inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up with good form and clean with brisk southeast winds. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up with good form and brisk southeast offshore winds in effect. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at head high and lined up and clean with good form. The East Shore was thigh thigh and heavily textured from modest east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (9/9) Hawaii was getting decent background swell. California was starting to get secondary swell from a gale that developed from it in the upper Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (9/2) producing a tiny area of 30 ft seas aimed north. And a gale developed south of New Zealand Sat-Mon (9/5) producing with 28-32 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is likely to result for HI by Sat (9/10) and CA beyond. And yet another gale was developing starting in the Central South Pacific moving to the Southeast Pacific Thurs-Fri (9/9) with 28 building to 34 ft seas aimed well northeast. And possibly another system is forecast under New Zealand on Wed (9/14) with 38 ft sea briefly aimed east-northeast. Summer is not done.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Friday (9/9) no swell was in the water relative to Hawaii or the US West Coast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
On Tues AM (9/6) Hurricane Kay was 300 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico tracking northwest with winds 80 kts at 17N 109W and just east of the SCal swell window with seas 30 ft. Kay held strength while tracking north-northwest in the evening to 19.5N 111.5W and barely in the Pt Dume swell window at 153 degrees with winds 80 kts (88 mph) and seas 32 ft. Kay is to continue tracking north-northwest if not north building to 90 kts on Wed AM (9/7) at 21N 113W on the 157 degree track to Pt Dume and barely in the Dana Point swell window at 159 degrees. Kay moved effectively inland on a north-northwest track while slowly fading into Thurs PM (9/8) moving over Isla de Cedros (half way up Baja) with winds down to 65 kts and effectively cut off relative to producing swell for Southern CA. On Fri AM (9/9) Tropical Storm Kay was down to tropical storm status just 60 nmiles off the coast of North Baja with winds 45 kts while turning northwest and is to be positioned 120 nmiles southwest of Ensenada CA in the evening with winds 40 kts generating shorter period windswell pushing north. Kay is to be fading to depression status from there while turning west. Current analysis suggests low odds of meaningful swell resulting for Southern CA given Kay's more eastward track nearly over land early in it life. But windswell generation seems possible starting Fri (9/9) as Kay tracks off North Baja.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Fri (9/9) at 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Possible windswell from the remnants of Kay to arrive overnight Fri (9/9) then fading early on Sat (9/10) from 5.5 ft @ 8 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 153-159 degrees with windswell from 160 degrees

 

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sat AM (9/10) west to southwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA. Southeast winds 20 kts for portions of Southern CA. Light rain for all of Southern CA up to maybe Moro Bay early. A light west wind pattern is forecast for all of North and Central CA later with south winds 10-15 kts for Southern CA. Rain thinning at sunset for South and Southern Central CA. Rainfall dependent upon the track of Hurricane Kay.
  • Sun AM (9/11) a light pressure and wind pattern is to in control. Light scattered showers for portions of Southern CA early. Kay is to be fading just off Southern CA and nearly gone by nightfall. In the late afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North Ca and calm for Central CA. No windswell forecast. Rain fading.
  • Mon AM (9/12) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA early. Northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Southern CA to return to it's normal summer mode. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
  • Tues AM (9/13) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts mainly south of Monterey Bay for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
  • Wed AM (9/14) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell production forecast.
  • Thurs AM (9/15) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay for Central CA early. In the afternoon. northwest winds to be 15+ kts for all of North CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Limited windswell production forecast.
  • Fri AM (9/16) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts solid for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today falling to 12,500 ft on 9/10 and holding while solidifying for the foreseeable future. The start of a Fall pattern might be setting up for the Sierra.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (9/9) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was running east in a zonal flow down at 60S not supporting gale development expect for a weak trough over the Southeastern Pacific lifting northeast with winds only 100 kts offering minimal support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east and out of the California swell window but additional wind energy at 120 kts is to start rebuilding a trough over the Southeast Pacific later Sat (9/10) pushing to 140 kts on Sun (9/11) offering decent support for gale development before pushing east of the Southern CA swell window later Mon (9/12). Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (9/13) a ridge is to be in control of the South Pacific pushing down into Antarctica offering no support for gale development through Fri (9/16).


Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously over the Southeast Pacific is starting to arrive in California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And mostly windswell from the remnants of Hurricane Kay are to be in the mix too for Southern CA (see Tropical Update above). And swell from a system under New Zealand is expected to arrive in Hawaii and eventually bound for CA (see New Zealand Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours no other swell production is forecast other than secondary and tertiary fetch associated with the Southeast Pacific Gale below.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
Another small gale developed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Wed PM (8/31) producing 35-40 kt south winds aimed well north but over a small area with seas building to 26 ft at 48S 138.5W aimed north. On Thurs AM (9/1) 45 kts south winds built slightly in coverage while lifting northeast with seas 26-28 ft over a slightly broader area at 48S 130W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts while still lifting northeast with seas 28 ft at 44S 125W aimed north. Fetch was fading Fri AM (9/2) from 35 kts from the south with seas fading from 25 ft at 39S 122W aimed north.

Southern CA: Swell building on Fri (9/9) to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) mid-day. Swell fading Sat (9/10) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (9/11) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Fri (9/9) building to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (9/10) at 2.1 ft at 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (9/11) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

 

New Zealand Gale
And a broad gale started developing south of New Zealand on Sat PM (9/3) producing 900 nmiles of southwest winds at 35-40 kts aimed north targeting primarily the Southern tip of New Zealand with seas building from 31 ft at 50.25S 165.25E and shadowed by New Zealand relative to Hawaii and CA. On Sun AM (9/4) a broad fetch of 40-45 kts south winds were free and clear of New Zealand with 29 ft seas at 48.25S 177.5E aimed northeast. In the evening a moderate fetch of south to southwest winds at 35-40 kt were easing east with seas 32 ft at 56S 174E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (9/5) fetch was fading from 30 kts from the southwest with seas 29 ft at 52.25S 177.75W aimed northeast. Fetch was gone after that. Modest swell is tracking northeast towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Swell arrival on Sat (9/10) building to 0.9 ft @ 18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (9/11) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (9/12) from 1.9 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (9/13) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (9/14) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 206-202 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (9/13) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Wed (9/14) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (9/15) from 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (9/16) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (9/13) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (9/14) to 1.9 ft @ 16-17 secs midday (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (9/15) from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (9/16) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started developing southwest of New Zealand just off the Ross Ice Shelf on Thurs AM (9/8) producing southwest winds at 40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas building from 27 ft at 59S 166W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were lifting northeast fast at 35-40 kts with seas 27-28 ft at 58.25S 150W aimed northeast. The gale was building Fri AM (9/9) with a broad area of 40-50 kt southwest winds over the Southeast Pacific with seas to 29 ft at 55.5S 134W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be moving over the far Southeast Pacific and almost out of the Southern CA swell window with 40-50 kt southwest winds and seas 35 ft at 57S 120W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be east of the SCal swell window on Sat AM (9/10) with seas fading from 28 ft at 54S 118W aimed northeast. The gale is to be east of the SCal swell window beyond. Something to monitor.

Varying degrees of secondary fetch to continue over the far Southeast Pacific just barely in the SCal swell window Sun-Tues (9/13) producing seas 35 ft on Sun AM 99/11) at 59S 123.75W aimed east-northeast and a tertiary fetch on Mon (9/12) producing 29-30 ft seas pushing north to 50.5S 117W on Tues AM (9/13). Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours perhaps a small gale is to develop under New Zealand on Tues PM (9/13) producing 40 kt west winds and seas building from 28 ft at 57S 165E aimed east. Theoretically on Wed AM (9/14) winds to build to 50 kts under New Zealand with seas 33 ft at 61S 170E. In the evening seas southwest winds to be 40+ kts aimed northeast with seas 37 ft at 57.5S 175W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (9/15) fetch is to fade from 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 30 ft at 55.25S 164.5W. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Phase Underway
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected reinforcing in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading by Winter turning neutral. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/8) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/9) East anomalies were far weaker today at modest strength still filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for modest east anomalies holding over KWGA focused at 170E and unchanged through the last day of the model run (9/16). This is an upgrade.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/8) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO holding over the KWGA for the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests the same thing. The models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/9) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over Maritime Continent and is to slowly plod east reaching the East Pacific 15 days out at very weak status. The dynamic model suggest the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/9) A weak Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the KWGA with a moderate Inactive MJO (dry air) over Central America today. The forecast depicts the Active Phase moving east over the KWGA and then into Central America on 9/29. An Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start building over the over KWGA on 10/4 pushing east and weak filling the equatorial Pacific through the end of the model run on 10/19.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/8) The Active Phase of the MJO was trying to build over the KWGA today but with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. Looking forward the Active Phase of the MJO is to try and reach east into the KWGA on 9/10 but fading before making it there. East anomalies at moderate status are to holding over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to do the same thing on 9/29, not making it into the KWGA with east anomalies building some at 170E holding through the end of the model run on 10/6.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(9/9) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a pulse of the Inactive Phase is all but gone over the KWGA. A weak pulse of the Active Phase trying to make headway into the KWGA 9/9-9/20 then fading with weak west anomalies building over the West KWGA. A weak pulse of the Inactive Phase is to follow 9/22-10/3 with neutral anomalies building over the build of the KWGA to the dateline. Then on 10/5 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing through the KWGA in earnest and in control through 11/22 with west anomalies moving from the Maritime Continent 10/6 bleeding east to about the dateline on 10/27 then building more filling the KWGA on 11/28 at moderate status. This would be a huge change if it develops as forecast. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 155E today. The second contour is to build into October then collapse on 11/28 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 10/15 then possibly starting to east east from there to 150E at the end of the model run. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 130E today but is forecast retrograding to 125E on 10/10 then starting to ease east slightly at the end of the model run. Of note, east anomalies which are and have been centered at 180W and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then dissipate completely by 10/19 with west anomalies taking over the KWGA beyond. This would be a huge step forward, if it develops.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was building east slightly to 170E. The 26 degree isotherm had backtracked to 153W and is moving east to 150W today. The 24 deg isotherm had backtracked from Ecuador to 133W but today is easing east to 110W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge stuck at 150W, A pocket of cool anomalies at -3 degs C were centered at 133W and filling the area from 150W and points east of there. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +1 degs in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 115W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/5 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 155W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 155W and reaching the surface. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/5) Sea heights were stabilizing over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to only 165E. A pocket of negative anomalies were holding in intensity from ecuador to 155W with 2 cores at -15 cms at 140 and 120W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 157W to 100W and stationary. A cool cycle is underway. it is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse. If a second pulse develops, La Nina will last through the Winter and the models will all be wrong.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/8) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest water was on the equator between 115W-135W. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/8): A mix of warm and cool pockets were on the equator between Ecuador to 140W. Warming has the edge today.
Hi-res Overview: (9/8) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 110W to 135W on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W starting on the equator and points north of there. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be building some on the equator with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/9) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rising some at -1.107 degs and have been in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Temp were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/9) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps are stable at -0.930 and have been in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.05 degs in Aug.
Forecast (9/9) - Temps are to be falling from about -1.0 degs in Sept to -1.50 degs in Nov then start a quick rise beyond and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Feb 2023 and up to +0.50 degs in May and heading up from there presumably. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Dec. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottomed out at -1.00 in mid Aug and are to hold, falling slightly to -1.15 degs in Nov then starting a steady upward climb rising above La Nina threshold in Feb and rising from there forward to +0.30 degs in April/May. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Oct. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to be nearly complete with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Jan and beyond into Feb. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.809 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.862 in Oct then are to warm to the La Nina threshold at -0.589 in Dec and -0.393 in Jan rising to +0.182 in April. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/9) the Daily Index was steady at +18.30. Previous peaks were at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive but starting in July weakness is starting to take hold. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising at +9.71 after falling to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising at +11.41 previously down at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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