BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, September 2, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (9/2) in North and Central CA surf was waist to stomach high and weakly lined up and mushed and warbled from modest northwest wind. Protected breaks were waist high plus and weakly lined up and soft but clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was shoulder to head high on the very rare sets and clean and modestly lined up but weird due to swell direction and very inconsistent. In Ventura County waves were waist to chest high on the sets and lined up with decent form but a bit warbled and crumbled even early. Central Orange County had sets to head high and super lined up and closed out and clean but with some intermixed southerly warble early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up with good form and lined up but pretty warbled early. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and a bit closed out and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had waves at chest to head high with decent form and lined up and clean early. The South Shore had sets at chest to head high and lined up with decent form early. The East Shore was getting northerly windswell at waist to chest high and textured from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (9/2) California was still getting swell originating from a gale that developed south of New Zealand on Thurs (8/21) with seas 28-30 ft aimed northeast. Fetch from it held over the deep Central South Pacific Fri-Sun (8/24) while moving to the Southeast Pacific producing 26-28 ft seas aimed northeast. And additional fetch developed over the Southeast Pacific Mon (8/25) with seas 26-28 ft aimed mostly east. Another gale formed in the Central South Pacific on Wed (8/27) with 28-29 ft seas aimed east-northeast and remnants from it redeveloped over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (8/28) with 30-35 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell from that is Poised for CA and points south of there. After that a gale developed just east of North New Zealand Mon-Tues (9/2) tracking east producing 31-32 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is radiating northeast. looking forward another gale is forecast under New Zealand on Sat (9/6) tracking east-northeast producing 27-29 ft seas aimed east-northeast then redeveloping over the deep Central South Pacific Mon-Tues (9/9) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed east-northeast. A steady flow of small southern hemi swell is expected to continue.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tues (9/2) small swell was hitting the North Shore of Oahu originating from a gale previously over the Northwest Pacific (see Northwest Pacific Gale below) and another low pressure system that developed in the Gulf of Alaska (see Gulf Low Pressure below).

Over the next 72 hours another low pressure system is forecast developing over the North Dateline region on Thurs-Fri (9/5) producing 18 ft seas aimed east. Doubtful and swell to result.

Northwest Pacific Gale
A low pressure system developed over the North Kuril Islands on Thurs AM (8/28) producing 35 kt northwest winds barely extending into the Northwest Pacific with seas building. In the evening a fetch of 35 kts northwest winds were extending off the North Kuril Islands with seas 22 ft at 45.75N 160.25E tracking east. On Fri AM (8/29) west winds were approaching the North Dateline region at 30 kts from the west with seas 21 ft at 47.75N 167.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds were fading from 30 kts with seas 21 ft at 48.25N 171.5E aimed east. The gael dissipated from there. Perhaps a hint of Fall is developing. No meaningful swell to result.

Oahu: Expect background swell arrival on Wed (9/3) building to 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/4) from 1.8 ft @ 11 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

Gulf Low Pressure
And on Fri PM (8/29) another low pressure system developed in the Central Gulf of Alaska with north winds 30 kts and seas building. On Sat AM (8/30) 30-35 kt northwest winds were well off the OR-CA border and 1100 nmiles north of Oahu with seas 17 ft at 40N 157W aimed southeast. Fetch was fading in the evening at 25 kts with seas 16 ft at 38N 158W aimed southeast . No meaningful swell is forecast but it is another sign that maybe a change of season is setting up.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (9/2) at 2.7 ft @ 10-11 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 00 degs

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Hurricane Kiko was midway between Mexico and Hawaii tracking east with winds 75 kts. Kiko is forecast to continue on this heading while slowly building with winds to 100 kts on Thurs (9/4) positioned 1400 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island. Kiko is forecast making a turn to the west-northwest on Sat (9/6) positioned 1,000 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island with winds 85 kts (100 mph). On Tues (9/9) Kiko is forecast being 300 nmiles east of the Big Island at minimal hurricane strength tracking west-northwest moving just north of the Big Island later. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (9/2) the influential southern branch of the jet had consolidated with northern branch tracking east off the northern tip of New Zealand with winds 150 kts forming a small trough east of New Zealand supporting gale formation there. Those winds continued east to the far Southeast Pacific then the jet split heavily with a ridge over the Southeast Pacific offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough east of New Zealand is to continue tracking east over the upper reaches of the Central Pacific Wed (9/3) with winds in the apex of the trough fading to 140 kts and support for gale development fading. To the west the jet is to be split with the southern branch falling hard southeast and weak at 80 kts offering no support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (9/5) the jet is to be well split with the southern branch very weak falling southeast from a point over New Zealand down to 70S and over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale formation. Theoretically on Sun (9/7) a pulse of wind energy at 150 kts is to develop under New Zealand forming a trough southeast of New Zealand and tracking east Tues (9/9) over the Southeast Pacific but with winds down to 110 kts then offering only minimal support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (9/2) swell from a gale that crossed the South Pacific was just past it's peak along the US West Coast (see Cross-Pacific Gale below). Another gale developed over the Central Pacific moving to the Southeast Pacific with swell from it poised for California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And new swell is pushing north from a gale that developed while tracking east of North New Zealand (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Cross-Pacific Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Wed PM (8/20) producing 40 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 61.25S 152.25E aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (8/21) southwest winds were 40 kts lifting northeast with seas 27 ft at 59S 175E aimed northeast and impacting the ice anomaly just north of the Ross Ice Shelf. In the evening 35 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas 26 ft at 55S 166W aimed northeast. Fetch continued tracking northeast on Fri AM (8/22) at 30-35 kts with seas 23 ft at 53S 155W aimed northeast and of no interest. Fetch rebuilt some in the evening from the southwest at 35-40 kts with seas building to 26 ft at 54.25S 156.5W. Fetch proceeded east Sat AM (8/23) over the Southeast Pacific at 35-40 kts in pockets with seas 26 ft at 49.75S 144W aimed northeast. In the evening multiple patches of southwest winds were at 35-40 kts consolidating some over the Southeast Pacific with seas 27 ft at 50.5S 134.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (8/24) 35 kt southwest winds moved up to the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 48.75 127W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale tracked east of the Southern CA swell window with 35-40 kt southwest winds still in the CA swell window and seas 26 ft at 50.25S 123.25W aimed east-northeast. After that all fetch was mostly east of the Southern CA swell window. Background swell is likely to result. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading Tues (9/2) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fades on Wed (9/3) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft) being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 219 moving to 202 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Tues (9/2) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fades on Wed (9/3) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft) being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 218 moving to 200 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Tues PM (8/27) a gale started building southeast of New Zealand with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 23 ft at 55S 175W aimed east. On Wed AM (8/27) west winds were 35-40 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 24 ft at 53S 155W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch tracked east at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 51.25S 141.75W aimed east-northeast. Fetch rebuilt sharply on Thurs AM (8/28) at 50 kts from the southwest over the Southeast Pacific with seas 25 ft at 52.25S 131.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening south winds were 40-45 kts with seas 31 ft at 55.75S 122W aimed east. On Fri AM (8/29) southwest winds were 35-40 kts on the edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 35 ft at 57.55S 117.75W aimed northeast. Fetch held position in the evening at 35-40 kts on the very edge of the CA swell window with seas fading from 25 ft at 56S 118W aimed east at South America. Possible small swell to result for the US West Coast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (9/3) building to 2.3 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell holding Thurs (9/4) at 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (9/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (9/6) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (9/3) building to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell builds Thurs (9/4) at 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (9/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (9/6) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

New Zealand Gale
On Sun PM (8/31) a small storm started building east of North New Zealand with 45-50 kts south winds pushing east and seas building from 26 ft at 39.5S 173W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (9/1) the small gale was tracking due east over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with south winds 40-45 kts and seas 31 ft at 37.75S 164W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale continued east with southwest winds 40 kts and seas 31 ft at 39.25S 159.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (9/2) southwest winds were 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 37S 152W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 40S 145W aimed northeast. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (9/6) building to 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaks later on Sun (9/7) at 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell slowly fading on Mon (9/8) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (9/9) fading from 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (9/9) building to 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds some on Wed (9/10) to 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-AM (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/11) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 212 moving to 208 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (9/9) building to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell builds some on Wed (9/10) to 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later(3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/11) from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 211 moving to 207 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing off Japan on Sat (9/8) tracking east with seas to 18 ft then dissipating on Sun (9/7). No swell to result but it is to be a step in the right direction. And remnants from it are theoretically to redevelop in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues 99/9) with seas building to 22 ft. Odds are very low of this actually happening though. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand Sat PM (9/6) with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 27 ft at 56S 172.25E aimed northeast. Fetch is to track east Sun AM (9/7) with southwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 27 ft at 58.25S 176.75W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 57S 166W aimed northeast. Secondary fetch is to build behind Mon AM (9/8) southeast of New Zealand at 40 kts from the west with seas building. In the evening 40 kt west winds to be over the Central South Pacific with seas 27 ft at 53.5S 157.75W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to track east Tues AM (9/9) at 35+ kts with seas 26 ft at 51S 142W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Returning - PDO Coldest In Recorded History
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/1) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/2) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies are to hold over the KWGA through 9/15 then starting to move east with weak to modest west west anomalies building over the for West Pacific starting 9/16 reaching to 150E at the end of the model run on 9/18.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (9/2) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 175E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 165W to 172W. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador and was stable at 126W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and gone in the East Pacific with a breach of cooler water reaching the surface east of 135W. And cold anomalies down to -2 degrees were at depth across the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/26 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 140W. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline from 180W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/26) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were weakly negative (-0.5 cms) from the dateline eastward. Heights were weakly above normal in the west from 160E and points west of there. Negative anomalies at up to -10 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 140W and -15 cms south of the equator at 5S south 130W. It appears the cool pool is stable if not weakening some over the equator.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/26) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific with cooler anomalies from 128W and points east of there and they were moving east. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/1) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 175E and coolest from 90W to 130W. Cool anomalies were also streaming off the California coast falling southwest to a point just south of Hawaii but warming fast as Fall starts to build. This looks like a developing weak La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there nearly to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/1): Temps were cooling in a few pockets between the Galapagos to 140W and far weaker than last week.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/2) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.726 and have been there since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/2) Today's temps were steadily at -0.873 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.4 on Aug 27. Previously temps were -0.4 (8/20), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 July and June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.40 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started fading in mid-July and down to -0.3 in Aug.
Forecast (9/2) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies are to fall below neutral (-0.5) Sept down to -0.75 mid-Oct, then rising back to neutral in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to only -0.70 degs. This is a upgrade. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a weak La Nina in the Fall of '25, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.406 in OND, then rising to +0.028 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.417 OND then rising some to +0.261 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.420 NDJ rising to -0.112 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/2) the Daily Index was negative at -1.42 but has been generally positive the last month.
The 30 day average was rising at +2.86 and has been generally falling the last month.
The 90 day average was falling at +2.95 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table