Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 10.4 secs from 182 degrees. Water temp 80.1 (Barbers Pt), 79.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 7.5 secs from 79 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 8.4 secs from 46 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 12.8 secs with dateline tropical swell 2.0 ft @ 13.4 secs. Wind northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs, 61.0 (Harvest 071), 70.3 (Topanga 103), 69.1 (Long Beach 215), 72.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 73.9 (Del Mar 153), 73.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 288 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.1 secs from 280 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 200 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 203 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 14.5 secs from 237 degrees. Water temperature was 72.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with dateline tropical swell 1.6 ft @ 12.2 secs from 268 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 9-11 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NW at 8 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 59.0 (San Francisco 46026), 57.4 (SF Bar 142), 59.9 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 61.0 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (8/26) in North and Central CA waves were thigh to maybe waist coming from the northwest and fairly clean but with some intermixed warble and closed out and fogged in. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and soft and lined up and real clean early but mostly breaking on the beach. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high on the sets and clean and very soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and mushed but fairly clean with no wind and breaking mostly on the beach. Central Orange County had sets at knee to thigh high and weak and mushed and barely rideable. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist high or so and weakly lined up with decent form and soft and fairly clean with light texture on it. North San Diego had sets to thigh to waist high and lined up and soft and mushed and pretty clean early. Oahu's North Shore was mostly flat and clean. The South Shore had a few waist high sets and clean but real soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at head high and chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (8/26) small swell was all but gone in California originating from a small tropical system that recurved northeast off Japan on Sat (8/17) with seas to 40 ft pushing north of the Aleutians on the dateline later Mon (8/19). Down south a gale developed just east of New Zealand Mon-Tues (8/20) with 28 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is radiating northeast but don't expect much size. No other swell producing systems of interest are charted for the South Pacific for the next week a series of tropical systems tracking between Mexico and Hawaii. But, a tiny gale is forecast just south of the Eastern Aleutians on Thurs (8/29) offering some hope from the North Pacific.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/26) no swell producing weather systems of interest were in the water.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing on Wed AM (8/28) over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians producing a small area of 30-35 kts west winds with seas trying to develop. In the evening fetch is to be mostly north of the Aleutians in the Bering Sea and landlocked relative to the North Pacific. Thurs AM (8/29) theoretically the gael is to fall southeast over the Southeast Aleutians with winds 30-35 kts and seas 21 ft over a small area at 53N 172W aimed east. Fetch holding in the evening while becoming more exposed at 30-35 kts with seas 22 ft at 50.5N 165.5W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Low odds this system will even develop.

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Nome on Mon AM (8/26) was tracking southwest of the Hawaiian Islands on an eastward heading and no longer of interest for swell production.

Hurricane Gilma was 1080 nmiles south-southwest of Pt Conception on Thurs AM (8/22) tracking mostly west with winds 110 kts (127 mph). Gilma continued on this heading building and peaking in the evening with winds 115 kts (132 mph) then continued on an almost due west heading while slowly fading with winds down to 80 kts on Sat AM (8/24) 1500 nmiles east of the Big Island heading west. On Mon AM 98/26) Gilma was 1100 nmiles east of the Big Island at 18.1N 136.2W with winds 85 kts tracking west. By Tues AM (8/27) Gilma is to be fading with winds 70 kts at 18.3N 139.5W tracking west or about 900 nmiles east of the Big Island and down to weak tropical storm status on Thurs (8/29) 420 nmiles east of the Big Island. The models suggest Gilma 60 nmiles north of Maui on Sat (8/31) with winds 25 kts and offering nothing but east windswell.

Tropical Storm Hector was 1800 nmiles east of the Big Islands with winds 45 kts tracking west. Hector is to continue on this heading and maybe peaking with 50 kts winds on Tues (8/27) then fading down to depression status by Sat (8/31) continuing west and positioned 450 nmiles east-southeast of the Big ISland. No meaningful swell to result.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tues AM (8/27) a gradient starts to build some with northwest winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early with northwest winds 10-15 kts nearshore for the rest of North and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient builds with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA down to Bodega Bay and northwest 10 kts south of there over all of Central CA. Windswell building.
Wed AM (8/28) the gradient holds if not builds more with northwest winds 25-35 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest at 10-15 kts to the Golden Gate and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no real change is forecast but with south winds possible from Bodega Bay southward. Windswell up some.
Thurs AM (8/29) the gradient fades with northwest winds 25 kts off Cape Mendocino and an eddy flow and south winds 5 kts for most of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient fades out with light winds 5 kts for all of North and Central CA. Windswell fading.
Fri AM (8/30) a light winds regime sets up with northwest winds 5 kts or less for all of North and Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon with winds northwest at 5 kts. No windswell forecast.
Sat AM (8/31) northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Sun AM (9/1) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. No windswell is forecast.
Mon AM (9/2) northwest winds build at 15-20 kts for all of North CA over a solid area and 15+ kts for Central CA early. Windswell building.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater. Temps to hold steady at the intersection level at 55-60 degs through Wed (9/4).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday AM (8/26) the southern branch of the jet was weak tracking east on generally the 55S latitude line with winds up to 110 kts in one pocket over the Southeast Pacific but with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to starting lifting northeast over the Central South Pacific Tues AM (8/27) forming a weak trough but quickly pinching off in the evening offering nothing. And remnants of that trough are to be falling southeast while sweeping east forming a ridge actively suppressing support for gale formation while impacting Antarctica and Antarctic Ice over the bulk of the South Pacific into Sat (8/31). Beyond another ridge is to set up sweeping east over Antarctic Ice Sun-Mon (9/2) again suppressing support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (8/26) small swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand was offering some minimal hope for the future (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Another New Zealand Gale
On Sun AM (8/18) a broad gale started circulating over and just east of New Zealand producing a broad fetch of 35 kts south winds impacting Southern New Zealand. In the evening south winds started to become exposed just southeast of New Zealand at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 53S 168E impacting South New Zealand. On Mon AM (8/19) south to southwest winds were 35-40 kts free and clear east of New Zealand with seas 26 ft at 48S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds held at 35-40 kts with seas 27-28 ft at 47S 175W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (8/20) winds turned west at 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 28 ft at 50S 169W aimed east-northeast. In the evening lingering west winds held at 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 50S 160W aimed east if not southeast with higher seas southeast of there but all targeting Antarctica. The gale fell southeast from there with no fetch aimed at the northern hemisphere. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (8/26) building to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (8/27) mid-day at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (8/28) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern and North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/29) building to 1.0 ft @ 16 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (8/30) at 1.2 ft @ 15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (8/31) fading from 1.1 ft @ 14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 211-212 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

ENSO Neutral Trying Weakly to Turn to La Nina
Models Waffle on La Nina Strength Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/22) Stale Data - A major new sensor upgrade in the west is now operational. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/26) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA except for a small pocket of west anomalies just west of the dateline. The forecast suggests the pattern holding for 2 days then east anomalies building to very strong status starting 8/30 over the dateline holding steady through the end of the model run on 9/11. A significant Inactive MJO is forecast, stronger than what would be expected from a weak La Nina. We'll see.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/25) Currently a neutral MJO pattern (neither wet or dry air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a weak Active MJO (wet air) developing on day 5 of the model run, building on days 10 and 15 to solid status. The dynamic model depicts a neutral pattern on days 5 and 10, then building on day 15 to moderate Active status (wet air) on the last day of the model run limited to the West Pacific.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (8/26) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Indian Ocean. It is to move to the East Maritime Continent 2 weeks out and somewhere between very weak and modest strength. The dynamic model depicts it meandering over the East Maritime Continent then building to near strong status the last 3 days of the model run over the Central Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/26) This model depicts a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) over the West Pacific. The Active Phase is to slowly build east over the KWGA 8/31 through 9/15 then pushing east of the KWGA. A weak Inactive pattern (dry air) to follow building over the KWGA 9/20 and taking control through the end of the model run on 10/5.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/25) Today a neutral MJO was depicted over the KWGA but with modest west anomalies around the dateline. The forecast has east anomalies rebuilding 2 days out building to near strong status into 9/1, then fading with west anomalies redeveloping for a few days on the dateline only to return to an east anomaly pattern 9/9 and holding at moderate status into 9/20 before starting to fade at the end of the model run on 9/22.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/26) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive MJO was peaking over the KWGA with east anomalies over the bulk of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to track east through 9/6 with east anomalies continuing unchanged. The Active MJO is to now again start building in the west around 8/29 pushing to the dateline on 9/11 and holding there through early November. Wow. Weak west anomalies are to take over the bulk of the KWGA by 9/10 reaching to 170E holding there through the end of the model run on 11/23. East anomalies are to hold east of there through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with a second contour developing 7/14 then fading 8/23. it is to reappear 9/20 and holding reaching east to 130E through the end of the model run unchanged. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 into 8/3 then collapsed to nothing. Is is to return weakly over the dateline 9/18 but not building in meaningful coverage 10/20 from 165E and points east of there through the end of the model run but with no 2nd contour developing. This is a significant change from previous runs suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecast.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/23) Stale Data - Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was reaching east to 176E. The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line stable at 162W. The 24 degree isotherm was easing east to 111W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and neutral to +1 deg in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2 degs was centered subsurface down 125m at 150W but making no progress to the surface but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/21 clarifies that indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 145W filling while growing in coverage over the entire East Equatorial Pacific. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline but not as strong as previous. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/21) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador yo 160W with -10 cms between 110-140W with -15 cm anomalies at 130W. This suggests a cooling trend is in play. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/21) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July with temps -0.5 to -1.5 degs from Ecuador to 167W with a core to -1.5-2.0 degs between 120-135W, but starting to fade in the west in early Aug and is fading to the east to 138W today. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5 degs were west of the dateline starting at 170W and have been since late May, but pushing east to 140W the past few days. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage in the west and cooler water dominating the equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/25) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was holding on the equator from Ecuador west to 160W broadest from 110-130W and fading compared to days past. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/25): A thin stream of mostly cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador to 140W. A new weak La Nina pulse might be developing.
Hi-res Overview: (8/25) A moderate stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 145W with the broadest coverage from 110W to 130W and a bit smaller in coverage than days past. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/26) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.612 after reaching a recent low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/26) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.319 after building to -0.190 (8/6) after falling to about -0.55 degs on 7/31 and have generally been on a dropping trend since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.1 degrees (week of 8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June and +0.10 July.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.38 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July falling to -0.3 degs in mid-Aug.
Forecast (8/26) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late Aug and barely -1.40 degs in Nov 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs late Aug and -0.85 in Sept then down to -1.05 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/26) the Daily Index was positive at +22.09 and has been solid positive 11 days running. Otherwise it has been a mix of positive and negative the last month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +0.49 and has been mostly negative the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching up at -2.17 and negative the last month. It has not been positive yet since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.12 April, -3.00 May, -3.16 in June and -2.97 July). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stably and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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