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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, August 24, 2023 1:38 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 8/21 thru Sun 8/27
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Deep SE Pac Swell Materializes
2 Gales for SE Pacific - 1 Under New Zealand

BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, August 24, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 10.1 secs from 171 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs (Barbers Pt), 80.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 6.3 secs from 41 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 18.9 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 18.0 secs from 134 degrees. Wind west at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 67.6 degs, 68.5 (Topanga 103), 66.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.5 (Del Mar 153), 67.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.2 ft @ 18.8 secs from 179 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.9 ft @ 8.0 secs from 278 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 18.5 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 18.7 secs from 184 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 18.9 secs from 178 degrees. Water temperature was 65.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 8.0 secs from 325 degrees with southern hemi swell 1.2 ft @ 19.6 degrees from 186 degrees and 1.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 187 degs. Wind south at 6 kts (46026). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 60.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 60.6 (San Francisco 46026), 63.1 (SF Bar 142), 63.5 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 64.8 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (8/24) North and Central CA waves were thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and mushed and heavily textured from south wind. Protected breaks were near waist high and lined up and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to rarely thigh high and mushed with warbled intermixed. Central Orange County had sets at head high coming from the south and very lined up if not closed out and broken up by wind lump with a current pushing north. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up but a bit broken up by underlying warble though surface conditions were clean. North San Diego had sets at waist high and weakly lined up and clean but soft and a bit broken up. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean with good form when they came. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (8/24) unexpected south swell was showing at the buoys in California originating from a gale that was in the very deep Southeast Pacific Tues-Wed (8/16) producing up to 40 ft seas aimed east. And residual swell was also hitting originating from a gale that developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Mon-Tues (8/15) producing 25-26 ft seas aimed north. Looking forward a gale is forecast developing on the eastern edge of the CA swell window on Thurs-Fri (8/25) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed north with yet a secondary fetch developing just east of the Southern Ca swell window on Sat-Mon (8/28) producing 35 ft seas aimed north. And maybe a gale is to pass under New Zealand Tues-Thurs (8/31) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor. Up north nothing capable of producing meaningful surf is forecast, but it's trying and getting more likely with each run of the model. And we continue monitoring the development of El Nino.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (8/24) no swell was in the water and none was forecast to be generated.

Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs AM (8/24) a tiny fetch of 40 kt northwest winds are to build in a gale over the North Datelines region. Seas are to build Fri AM (8/25) to 19 ft at 43N 174W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii. Perhaps tiny background windswell to result for Oahu on Mon 98/28) at 1.7 ft @ 12 secs (2.0 ft) from 330 degrees Minimal, but something of interest.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

But a short-lived hurricane looks to develop on Sun (8/27) 900 nmiles south-southwest tracking west-northwest and fading out 900 nmiles east of the Big Island of Hawaii on Thurs (8/31).

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Fri AM (8/25) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for all of California early. Northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA in the afternoon but up to 15 kts from Monterey Bay southward. No windswell forecast.
  • Sat AM (8/26) weak low pressure is to be off North CA with northwest winds 5 kts for all of North CA but high pressure trying to ridge underneath producing northwest winds at 15 kts from Monterey Bay southward. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
  • Sun AM (8/27) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA mainly south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast.
  • Mon AM (8/28) a southward displaced summertime pressure gradient returns with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 20+ kts for North CA and 25 kts from Big Sur southward. Limited local windswell resulting.
  • Tues AM (8/29) northwest winds are to be 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25 kts solid for all of North and Central CA. Raw windswell building.
  • Wed AM (8/30) northwest winds to be 25 kts for all of North and Central CA early. The gradient is to build while lifting north some in the afternoon with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA.
  • Thurs AM (8/31) northwest winds to be 30 kts for North CA and 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward. Windswell holding and conditions improving south of the Golden Gate.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection (8,700 ft): 50 degrees into Sat night (8/26) then 55-65 degs into Thurs (8/31) then down to 45-50 degrees beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (8/24) the jet was extremely split over the West and Central South Pacific with the influential southern branch down at 63S and partially over the Ross Ice shelf then lifting hard north forming a trough over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 100 kt winds offering some support for gale development. The northern branch was running east on the 26S latitude line with winds up to 125 kts then building to 160 kts while pushing into Southern Chile with no troughs offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the Southeast Pacific trough is to push east and east of the Southern CA swell window late Fri evening (8/25) no longer supporting gale development in the California swell window. But on Sat (8/26) another trough is forecast developing over the same area being fed by 100 kt winds offering support for gale development. That trough is to track east and east of the California swell window on Sun PM (8/27) no longer supporting gale production in the California swell window. Beyond 72 hours another weak trough is forecast building under New Zealand on Tues PM (8/29) pushing east into Thurs (8/31) but winds only 80 kts offering only low odds of supporting gale development. Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (8/24) swell from a gale previously over the Southeast Pacific is to continue impacting California (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below). And swell from anther gale previously in the Deep Southeast Pacific Gale was starting to hit California (see Deep Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed PM (8.23) a gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific producing 35 kt southwest winds over a broad area aimed northeast trying to get some traction on the oceans surface. On Thurs AM (8/24) the gale was building with 40 kt southwest winds over a broad area aimed northeast in the eastern edge of the CA swell window with seas building from 25 ft at 53S 126W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to build to 45 kts with seas 30 ft at 50S 122W aimed north. On Fri AM (8/25) fetch is to be lifting north east while fading from 35 kts from the south with seas 31 ft at 50S 120W aimed north. In the evening south winds to be 30+ kts lifting northeast and well east of the SCal swell window with 31 ft seas at 48S 107W aimed northeast and well east of the CA swell window but with lingering seas at 28 ft still in the window at 47S 118W targeting Southern Ca only. The gale and seas are to be well east of CA after that and fading. Swell is possible relative to Chile, Peru, Central America and up into Mexico and California.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (9/1) building to 2.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sat (9/2) to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell holding on Sun (9/3) 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (9/4) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 184 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (9/1) building to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sat (9/2) to 2.5 ft @ 16 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell holding on Sun (9/3) 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (9/4) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 184 degrees

And a secondary fetch is forecast developing over the same area (far Southeast Pacific) on Sat AM (8/26) from the south again at 35 kts with seas building. In the evening south winds to build to 50 kts aimed north but mostly east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 31 ft at 58.5S 114.75W. On Sun AM (8/27) fetch is to be building at 45-50 kts from the south barely in the Southern CA swell window aimed north with seas 31 ft at 57.75S 114.5W aimed north. In the evening fetch is to be pushing north at 45 kts and again mostly east of the CA swell window with seas at 33 ft at 56S 116W aimed north to northwest. On Mon AM (8/28) fetch is to be 40 kts from the south but well east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 34 ft at 50S 110.25W aimed north primarily targeting Central America and Peru. The gale is to be tracking northeast from there and of no interest to California. Will monitor.

 

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (8/14) a gale developed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing a small area of south winds at 30-35 kts aimed north. Seas building. In the evening south winds continued almost stationary at 35-40 kts aimed north with seas 23 ft developing at 37S 143W aimed north. On Tues AM (8/15) south winds were easing east at 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 34.25S 139.25W. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts from the south with seas 23 ft at 32S 133W aimed mostly east at Chile. A quick fade followed. Possible small swell to develop radiating north towards California.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (8/24) from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (8/25) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (8/24) from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (8/25) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

 

Deep Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started to develop Tues AM (8/15) over lightly iced waters of Antarctica over the Southeast Pacific with seas indicated per the Jason-3 satellite at 36 ft with one reading to 41 ft at 64.13S 152.4W. In the evening the gael was e over the Southeast Pacific and south of another gale producing 45 kt southwest winds with seas 25 ft at 63.75S 137W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading on Wed AM (8/16) from 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 61S 124W aimed east-northeast. But the Jason-3 satellite indicated seas at 40 ft with one reading to 47 ft at 59S 125W aimed northeast. Fetch dissipating down to 30 kts in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 62S 119W aimed east-northeast.

Southern California: Swell was hitting on Thurs AM (8/24) at 2.0 ft @ 19 secs and building. Swell to build through the day reaching 2.7 ft @ 18 secs late (5.0 ft). Swell continues on Fri AM (8/25) at 2.5 ft @ 17 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Sat AM (8/26) from 2.3 ft @ 15 sec (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

North California: Swell was hitting on Thurs AM (8/24) at 1.5 ft @ 19 secs and building. Swell to build into the evening to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Fri (8/25) midday at 2.4 ft @ 17 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sat midday (8/26) from 2.2 ft @ 15 sec (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 182 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's some suggestion of a tropical system developing southeast of Japan on Sat (8/26) tracking northwest then recurving east off the Kuril Islands on Tues (8/29) then building some in the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs (8/31). This is not believable but something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Tues AM (8/29) producing west winds at 45-50 kts over a small area with seas building. In the evening southwest winds are to be 50 kts with seas 37 ft at 57.75S 172E aimed northeast. On Wed AM south winds to be 45+ kts with seas 37 ft at 57.75S 176.5W aimed northeast over a rather modest sized area. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 45 kts from the south with seas 34 ft at 56.75S 170.75W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (8/31) a broad fetch of south winds at 40 kts is forecast southeast of New Zealand with seas 31 ft at 57.5S 167.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

El Nino Continues to Sputter
Kelvin Waves #3, #4 and #5 Erupting - NINO3.4 SSTs well in El Nino Territory and Slowly Rising
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th in May. But after the last Active MJO in mid-to-late May, the MJO stalled, and has not restarted. Sea Surface Temperatures in the east are very warm and holding, but not expanding. The atmosphere is showing only the weakest signs of being coupled with the ocean mainly in ORL and surface currents. Fortunately, another Active MJO in August got limited traction (8/1) and seems to have created one last Kelvin Wave that will help push the atmosphere towards El Nino. But the atmospheric signal for now remains weak.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2023 = 3.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and light west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/24) Moderate east anomalies were filling the West KWGA today with light west anomalies over the dateline. The forecast indicates west anomalies holding over the dateline through about 9/29 with weak east anomalies over the West KWGA. But then on 8/30 east anomalies are to take over the KWGA and building to near strong status 9/3 through the end of the model run 9/9. The GEFS depicts weak west anomalies holding into 8/29 then dissolving with east anomalies taking over. The ECMWF shows west anomalies holding into about 8/29 with mostly east anomalies taking over after that. If the GFS verifies out El Nino is over.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/23) A weak Inactive MJO was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates no change through day 10 of the model run then the Inactive Phase start fading on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the Inactive Phase is to fade on day 10 and the Active Phase to materialize on day 15 of the model run weakly.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (8/24) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over Africa and is to track east to the East Indian Ocean and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase moving to the Maritime Continent at modest strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/24) A neutral to weak Inactive pattern (dry air) was filling the West Pacific today. The forecast has the Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking slowly east over the KWGA through 9/13 A weak Active signal (wet air) is to be moving over the KWGA 9/18 building through the end of the model run and filling the equatorial Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/23)
Today the Active MJO was depicted strong over the far East Pacific with moderate to strong west anomalies there with west anomalies over KWGA. A small Westerly Wind Burst occurred started 7/14 and is continuing till 8/18. The forecast indicates west anomalies continuing over the KWGA into 8/30. The Inactive Phase is to traverse the KWGA 8/29 through 8/9 but with a few pockets of east anomalies in the KWGA. But west anomalies are to redevelop filling the KWGA on 9/7 west anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/20 building to moderate strength. .
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(8/24) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase was building over the KWGA but with weak west anomalies still in play mostly over the dateline with weak east anomalies over the Western KWGA. The forecast has the Inactive Phase passing over the KWGA through 9/19 with west anomalies weak mainly located over the dateline during that window but steadily building in coverage and strength with weak east anomalies over the west KWGA through 9/5. After that the Active Phase returns on 9/12 holding through 10/27 with strong west anatomies taking over the KWGA. Weaker but still solid west anomalies to hold through the end of the model run on 11/21. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity took over the KWGA on 6/24 and is holding if not building starting 8/15 and solid moving forward. If anything clear skies started building over the Maritime Continent 7/16 and are forecast building from here forward. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 175E with 3 contour lines (starting 7/14) and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 135W today (it started pushing east on 2/15). The primarily contours leading edge is to slowly ease east to 122W (Up to the California coast) at the end of the model run with it's center easing east to 178E and a 4th contour line developing towards the end of the model run on 11/20. The high pressure bias was south of California at 120W and is to dissipate on 10/21. 7/18 was the start of a major positive change in the development of El Nino with a advent of the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies. It appears a borderline strong El Nino is developing.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/24) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 170W (previously 175W). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 157W (previously 160W). The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 143W (previously 146W). The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific but was getting a little deeper today at 37m (previously 25m but at one point down to 65m) in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C were in the far West Pacific associated with newly developing Kelvin Wave #6 centered at 175W pushing east in a continuous stream feeding into a broad pocket of +3-5 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 155W (145W on 7/20). +4-5 degree anomalies were building in coverage starting at 125W. The warm pool in the east is discharging to the surface but also growing at the same time. There's now about 3+ months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast (previously 2 months) today with a stream of warm water backfilling into it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 indicates a large very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending west to east starting at 145E and over the whole subsurface Pacific and building while tracking east with 2 deg anomalies from 138W and points east of there and +4-5 degs anomalies from 117W and points east of there erupting into Ecuador. +2 degree anomalies were falling off the Maritime Continent merging with the preexisting warm stream with a new pocket of 2-3 degs anomalies centered at 160E (Kelvin Wave #6). In other words, this image suggests a steady flow of warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent suggesting perhaps another Kelvin Wave is developing. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Sea heights were positive across the whole equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms and a little thinner at 150E. +5 cm anomalies were in the east from 145W east into Ecuador with a second pocket in the west from 165E-175W (Kelvin Wave #6). Positive anomalies extending north into Central America up to the southern tip of Baja and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues at +1.00-2.00 degs over the East Pacific from 110W and east of there. A broad pocket of near neutral temps was in place west in the West Pacific (130E-160E) with a broad pocket of warming at +0.5-+1.0 degs anomalies from 160E to 110W. The warm water flow had backed off some with nothing to force more warm water east (i.e. no Active MJOs occurring). But that pattern is changing for the better now. Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/23) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador out to 112W and rebuilding after fading some 3 weeks ago affected by east winds blowing solidly over this area. Lesser but still serious heat continued west to about 141W (previously 137W). The warm pool is growing to the west. Lesser heat extended west to the dateline and beyond. Heat also extends north up Mexico reaching North Baja and south down into Patagonia. There is a very clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still evident mainly from a point well off Baja west to a point south of Hawaii with one last lingering pocket of cooler waters there. The Cool Pool is finally collapsing. La Nina is all but gone now atmospherically over the Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/23): 3 pockets of warming waters were on the equator from Ecuador west to 125W. This is a good sign. It's not surprising there's no clear warm signal along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get any hotter. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable but not inching forward. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today. And strong warming is still hugging the California Coast. This possibly signals the demise of the cool upwelling 'La Nina hangover' pool. Cool water was south of Baja the result of upwelling from Hurricane Hillary.
Hi-res Overview: (8/21) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador out to 110W and building. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. Everything is now looking like El Nino. But the La NIna enhanced cool pool off California persists, though weaker. Very perplexing. It's a clear sign of the negative PDO and it is not budging.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/24) (Coral Reef temps run about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were fading some at +2.561 after rising to +3.164 (8/18) after being up to +2.925 on 8/10 after rising at +3.074 degs (8/7) after being up to +3.391 (on 7/20) and had been rising from +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/24) (Coral Reef anomalies run about +0.2 degrees higher). Today temps were steadily but slowly rising at +1.183 and on a slow upwards trajectory. Temps first time above 1.0 degs was on 8/7 after being up to +0.967 (8/1) up from +0.873 degs (7/25) after peaking at +0.985 (7/18). Previously temps were rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching +1.15 degs early Aug.
Forecast (8/24) - Temps are are to slowly rise to +1.20 degs in mid-Aug and +1.25 degs mid Sept, then start rising quickly, to +1.65 degs in Oct and +1.85 degs in Nov and solidly in El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast holding at +1.15 degs into mid-Aug then steady at +1.10 in Sept, then rising to +1.25 degs in Oct and +1.40 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into a high medium or low level strong El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs amd continue to be adjusted downwards.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 18, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.432 degs today and it's the 5th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward up to +1.682 degrees in Oct and 1.716 in November then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +2.060 in Nov while the statistic models show +1.122 degrees. The dynamic models are running much hotter than the statistic models. The CFS model is right in the middle of the dynamic model range.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/24) the Daily Index was negative at -12.93 and have been negative for 5 day, and positive the previous 7 days. It had been negative the previous 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25. It was positive the previous 21 days then was negative 11 days prior and positive 5 days previous then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -10.00 and fell below the neutral point on 7/26. It rose above positive 7/3-7/25. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at -5.33 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. Recent max lows were -8.90 on 8/8 and -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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