Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 81.0 (Barbers Pt), 80.6 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 6.4 secs from 40 degrees. Water temp 81.1 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 14.1 secs from 191 degrees. Wind northwest 6 kts. Water temperature 66.0 degs, 61.0 (Harvest 071), 72.3 (Topanga 103), 71.4 (Long Beach 215), 73.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 73.9 (Del Mar 153), 72.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.8 ft @ 8.3 secs from 297 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.1 ft @ 7.5 secs from 286 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.0 secs from 196 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 189 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 14.8 secs from 208 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 14.0 secs from 195 degrees. Water temperature 70.9 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Buoy 029 Down - Using 157. Seas were 4.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 7.9 secs from 306 degrees with southern hemi swell 1.4 ft @ 13.5 secs fro, 196 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 2-4 kts San Francisco (46026), Buoy Down (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N 6 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NA degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.8 (San Francisco 46026), 59.9 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 56.3 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (8/23) in North and Central CA surf was thigh to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and mushed and somewhat warbled from modest northwest wind. Protected breaks were thigh high or so and weakly lined up and soft and clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the sets and clean and somewhat lined up with decent form but soft. In Ventura County waves were thigh high on the sets and barely lined up and soft and warbled from northwest winds early. Central Orange County had sets to waist high on the peak and weakly lined up with decent form though soft and clean and mushed and clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder high or so and lined up with good form but pretty warbled early. North San Diego had sets at waist high and reasonably lined up with decent form but pretty soft and heavily textured early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist high or so and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (8/23) California was getting minimal swell originating from a weak system that developed over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific on Fri (8/15) with 32 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Swell from this was fading in HI. A gale developed while tracking east and positioned south of the Tasman Sea Fri (8/15) with 45 ft seas aimed east then faded Sat (8/16) south of New Zealand with 35 ft seas aimed east into early Sun (8/17). Small swell looks likely arriving for Hawaii on Sat (8/23) and the mainland on Sun (8/24). Another gale developed south of New Zealand on Thurs (8/21) with seas 28-30 ft aimed northeast. Fetch from it is to hold over the deep Central South Pacific Fri-Sun (8/24) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed northeast. And additional fetch is to develop over the Southeast Pacific Mon (8/25) with seas 26-30 ft aimed mostly east. Doubtful much is to result from it. And maybe another to form in the Central South Pacific on Wed (8/27) with 29 ft seas aimed east-northeast and remnants from it redeveloping over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (8/28) with 38-39 ft seas aimed northeast. Nothing huge but perhaps a steady flow of small southern hemi swell is possible.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (8/23) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (8/24) northwest winds to be 15 kts off the coasts of North and 10-15 kts off Central CA and 10 kts nearshore. More of the same in the afternoon. Minimal windswell holding.
Mon AM (8/25) northwest winds to be 20 kts off North CA and 10 kts nearshore and 10-15 kts for Central CA mainly off the coast. In the afternoon no change is forecast but with northwest winds only 10 kts off Central CA. Windswell building some.
Tues AM (8/26) northwest winds to build at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts south of there and for all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to to be 15-20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. Windswell fading some
Wed AM (8/27) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 15 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. No real windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (8/28) northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts everywhere south of there. No change in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (8/29) northwest winds to be 15+ kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
Sat AM (8/30) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA over a shallow area. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for Central CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 60-70 degrees Sat (8/23) fading to 55-60 degrees Sun through Tues (8/26). After that temperatures to be 50-55 degs through the end of the model run Sun (8/31).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (8/23) the influential southern branch of the jet was tracking weakly west to east at 90-100 kts with no trough producing only a zonal flow offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours winds are to start building in the jet later Sun (8/24) at 120-130 kts with a trough developing over the Central South Pacific on Tues (8/26) pushing east and being reinforced by 150 kts winds on Wed (8/27). Beyond 72 hours that trough is to build more while pushing east on Thurs (8/28) over the Southeast Pacific offering support for gale development before pushing east of the Southern CA swell window on Fri (8/29). After that a very weak jetstream pattern is to set up offering nothing into Sat (8/30).

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (8/23) swell from a tiny gale that built in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific was fading in HI and building in CA (see South Central Pacific Gale below). And a stronger gale built under New Zealand with swell propagating towards HI and CA (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

A gale developed under New Zealand on Wed PM (8/20) producing 40 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 61.25S 152.25E aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (8/21) southwest winds were 40 kts lifting northeast with seas 28 ft at 60S 175E aimed northeast and impacting the ice anomaly just north of the Ross Ice Shelf. In the evening 35 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas 26 ft at 55S 166W aimed northeast. Fetch continues tracking northeast on Fri AM (8/22) at 30-35 kts with seas 23 ft at 53S 154W aimed northeast and of no interest. Fetch rebuilds some in the evening from the southwest at 35-40 kts with seas building to 26 ft at 54.25S 156.5W. Fetch proceeded east Sat AM (8/23) over the Southeast Pacific at 35-40 kts in pockets with seas 26 ft at 50S 145W aimed northeast. In the evening multiple patches of southwest winds at 35-40 kts are to be consolidating over the Southeast Pacific with seas 29 ft at 50.25S 134.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (8/24) 35 kt southwest winds move up to the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 28 ft at 49S 128W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 25 ft at 49.75S 118W aimed east-northeast. Background swell is likely to result. Something to monitor.

South Central Pacific Gale
On Thurs PM (8/14) a small gale developed in the upper reaches of the South Central Pacific producing southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 23 ft. On Fri AM (8/15) south winds were 45 kts with seas 29 ft at 34.5S 149W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts with seas 34 ft at 35S 139.5W aimed east. After that the gale and fetch started falling southeast offering no additional swell generation potential. Low odds for background swell production.

Oahu: Residuals on Sat (8/23) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180-184 degrees

Southern CA: Swell builds on Sat (8/23) at to 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fades Sun (8/24) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (8/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction:197-202 degrees

North CA: Swell builds on Sat (8/23) at to 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades Sun (8/24) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (8/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction:195-200 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (8/14) a gale developed south of Tasmania falling slightly southeast with northwest winds 45 kts solid and seas 39 ft 55.25S 144E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (8/15) west-northwest winds were 50 kts with the gale tracking east-southeast with seas 44 ft at 57S 153.5E on the 217 degrees path to NCal (shadowed relative to HI). In the evening 45 kt west winds were positioned south of New Zealand with 45 ft seas at 59.25S 164.5E aimed more to the east on the 212 degree path to NCal (barely in the 201 degree path to HI). On Sat AM (8/16) west winds were 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61S 177E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east with west winds 35 kts over a broad area and seas 32 ft at 58.8S 179.5W aimed east. On Sun AM (8/17) southwest winds were 35-40 kts positioned well southeast of New Zealand with seas 31 ft at 58.25S 169.75W aimed east and impacting a new ice anomaly there off the Ross Ice Shelf. Fetch and seas are to fade out from there. Swell is possible for Hawaii and CA.

Oahu: Expect background swell arrival on Sat (8/23) building to 0.8 ft @ 18 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/24) from 0.9 ft @ 16-17 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft).

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/24) building to 1.0 ft @ 20-21 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds some Mon (8/25) to 1.3 ft @ 18-19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks later Tues (8/26) at 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holds Wed (8/27) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell starts fading Thurs (8/28) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/29) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 218 moving to 213 degs and unshadowed but coming from a very long way away (i.e. long waits between sets).

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/24) building to 0.9 ft @ 20-21 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds some Mon (8/25) to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks later Tues (8/26) at 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell holds Wed (8/27) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell starts fading Thurs (8/28) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/29) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217 moving to 212 degs and unshadowed but coming from a very long way away (long time between sets).

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues PM (8/27) a gale is to start building southeast of New Zealand with west winds 40 kts and seas 25 ft at 54S 175W aimed east. On Wed AM (8/27) west winds to be 40+ kts with seas 27 ft at 53S 165W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to track east at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 53.75S 156.6W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to build sharply on Thurs AM (8/28) at 45 kts from the southwest over the Southeast Pacific with seas 28 ft at 52S 140W aimed east-northeast. In the evening south to southwest winds to be 45-50 kts with seas 39 ft at 54.25S 126.75W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (8/29) south winds to be 50 kts on the edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 37 ft at 54.75S 120W aimed northeast. Fetch is to track northeast in the evening at 50 kts well east of the Southeast CA swell window with seas 44 ft at 55.75S 113W aimed northeast at South America. Something to monitor.

La Nina Returning - PDO Coldest In Recorded History
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/22) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the East Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/23) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA with west anomalies building over the far West KWGA to 140E. East anomalies are to hold over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/8. Weak to modest west west anomalies are to build east into the West KWGA reaching 150E on 8/26 to 8/31 then collapsing and gone from the KWGA through the end of the model run.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/22) Currently a neutral MJO (dry air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral MJO is forecast over the 15 day run of the model. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (8/23) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over Central Indian Ocean today. The statistic model has it tracking east to the East Maritime Continent and and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates it moving to the Central Pacific and even weaker at the end of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/3) This model is corrupt, and still shows an Active MJO in control today when everything else depicts the Inactive Phase is in control.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/22) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA with an small Inactive MJO contour indicated south of California but with west anomalies pushing east reaching 150E. The forecast has modest east anomalies holding over the Central KWGA while easing east with west anomalies reaching east to 170E on 8/23 then slowly retracting west to 140E 8/29 and holding there through 9/12 then retracting west and gone at the end of the model run on 9/19 with a weak Active contour briefly setting up at 160W 9/1.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/23) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was peaking over the KWGA with weak east anomalies filling most of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 8/31 with up to 2 contours but with west anomalies starting to build over the KWGA on 8/24 reaching to 170E. On 8/25 the Active Phase develops over the West KWGA building with 2 contours holding through 9/16 with west anomalies filling the KWGA west of the dateline at moderate status. The Inactive Phase is forecast 9/10-9/28 but with neutral anomalies west of the dateline. After that the Active Phase is to develop with 3 contours starting 9/21 holding through 10/20 with west anomalies west of the dateline and east anomalies east of there. The same wind pattern is to hold through the end of the model run on 11/20 if not building even further to the east. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 150E and is forecast holding there through the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 170E today with 1 contour and is to stabilize at 165E 9/24 and beyond. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are to go stationary into the Fall with the dividing line at 160E and west anomalies filling the western 50% of the KWGA and east anomalies the eastern 50%.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (8/23) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 176E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 165W to 162W. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador and was stable at 124W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and barely neutral in the far East Pacific with a breach of cooler water reaching the surface between 116W to 148W. And cold anomalies down to -3 degrees were at depth centered at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/16 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 180W except for a few lingering warm pockets off Ecuador. Cool anomalies were in control over the deep east thermocline from 150W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific with weak warm anomalies filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/16) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were weakly negative on the equator east of 150W and up to -5 cms below normal from Ecuador to 145W. Heights were weakly above normal in the west from 170E and points west of there. Negative anomalies at up to -15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 140W and -20 cms south of the equator at 7S south 135W. It appears the cool pool is rebuilding over the equator.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/16) indicates on 7/15 cool anomalies started rebuilding and today are filling the area from 132W to 100W and moving east fast. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral from what now looks like a developing La Nina or at least an upwelling cool water phase moving east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/22) The latest images depict a clear coolish pool streaming off Ecuador building in coverage at 120W and stable west to 175E filling the NINO3.4 area. Cool anomalies were also streaming off the California coast falling southwest to a point just south of Hawaii. This looks like a developing weak La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there nearly to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/22): Temps were solidly cooling over the area between Ecuador 145W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/23) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling hard at -0.532 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/23) Today's temps were falling at -0.745 and have been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.3 on Aug 13. Previously temps were -0.3 (7/30 & 8/6), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 July and June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.40 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-July.
Forecast (8/23) - Temps started fading in mid-July and are to fall into mid-Nov down to -1.25, then rising back to neutral in April 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temps falling to only -1.00 degs. This is a downgrade. It looks like we're heading back into La Nina in the Fall of '25, turning neutral in late Spring 2026.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.406 in OND, then rising to +0.028 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.417 OND then rising some to +0.261 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.420 NDJ rising to -0.112 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/22) the Daily Index was positive at 5.52 but has been generally positive the last month.
The 30 day average was falling at +0.03 and has been generally falling the last month.
The 90 day average was falling at +2.88 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral rising slightly.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.