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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, August 22, 2021 1:03 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.7 - California & 1.7 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/23 thru Sun 8/29

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Windswell for Now
Gale Forecast South of New Zealand Later in the Week

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, August 22, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pnt) : Seas were 2.4 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 16.1 secs from 193 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 80.1 (Barbers Pnt).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 7.8 secs from 40 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 13.8 secs from 186 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 70.9 degs, 67.8 (Topanga 103), 64.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 71.6 (Del Mar 153), 72.3 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.7 ft @ 13.8 secs from 205 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 14.3 secs from 209 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.9 secs from 204 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 198 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 198 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 59.0 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.5 (46026), 61.9 degs (SF Bar 142), and 61.3 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (8/22) North and Central CA had waves at waist high and junky with south wind lump intermixed with dense overcast. Protected breaks had some waist high sets and soft and weakly lined up and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but pretty weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up and real clean but inconsistent and soft. Central Orange County had set waves at head high and lined up and clean with decent form. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up and real clean and peeling but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets waves at shoulder high and lined up if not closed out and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some swell with waves waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves chest high and nearly chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (8/22) Hawaii was getting minimal swell from undetermined source making for some small rideable surf. California was getting the last fading remnants of swell from a gale that developed Tues-Wed (8/11) producing up to 39 ft seas over the South Central Pacific aimed well northeast then faded out over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (8/12). After that the South Pacific quieted down with no swell producing weather systems having occurred. A gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand on Thurs-Fri (8/27) producing 35 ft seas aimed east then traversing the South Pacific through Sun (8/29) producing 33-39 ft sea aimed east. Some maybe a decent run of smaller sideband swell to result. But until then, nothing is expected. Nothing is forecast in the NPac either except for the remnants of what was Hurricane Linda tracking over North Oahu on Mon (8/23) possibly setting up some windswell. We're mostly just waiting now for the transition to Fall to start.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (8/22) no swell tracking towards nor hitting California or Hawaii originating form the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Linda on Fri (8/20) was positioned 750 nmiles east of Maui with winds 35 kts tracking east at 15 kts producing 20 ft seas. Linda continued on this heading while holding strength and is expected to approach Maui on Sun evening (8/22) with winds 35 kts just brushing it's north coast on Mon (8/23) at 3 AM with winds to 40 kts north of the center down but 25 kts on Maui (below tropical depression status) then impacting North Oahu about 11 AM with winds 30-35 kts before passing south of Kauai about 8 PM with winds 25 kts over that island. Windswell with seas 12 ft and rain is the likely result. Something to monitor.

Oahu (East Shore): Windswell building to 6.0 ft @ 9 secs Monday afternoon (5.0-5.5 ft) from 65 degrees

 

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon (8/23) northwest winds build to 20-25 kts over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts from Bodega Bay south to Pt Conception all day. Modest windswell developing.
  • Tues (8/24) northwest winds are to be 20+ kts over Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts south of there holding all day. Minimal windswell holding.
  • Wed (8/25) fetch fades with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 10-15 ks Central CA early building to 20 kts for all of North and Central CA later. No real windswell forecast.
  • Thurs (8/26) northwest winds are to be 20 kts over all of North and Central CA early building to 25 kts over North CA later. Northwest windswell building some.
  • Fri (8/27) northwest fetch is to build over North CA early at 25 kts and 15-20 kt northwest winds just off the coast of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 10 kts nearshore for Central Ca and 20+ kts off the coast. Windswell building.
  • Sat (8/28) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for North CA early and a weak eddy flow (south winds developing south of the Golden Gate and holding all day. Windswell building.
  • Sun (8/29) northwest winds to be 25 kts solid for the water just off Cape Mendocino with a solid eddy flow (south winds) from just south of Cape Mendocino to Pt Conception. Windswell fading.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft falling to 13,000 ft on 8/24 then back to 14,000 ft+ starting 8/25 and beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (8/22) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging south under New Zealand reaching down to 68S and over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development over ice free waters in the west. The jet continued tracking east from there across the width of the South Pacific all over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours no significant change is forecast. Beyond 72 hours starting later Thurs (8/26) the jet is to get more energetic under New Zealand and is to start lifting northeast with winds building to 130 kts starting to form a trough southeast of New Zealand offering some support for gale development with that trough slol.wy building east over the Central South Pacific on Sat (8/28) offering support for gale development there and continuing to the Southeast Pacific on Sun (8/29) with the same result. So there is some hope.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (8/22) the last bit of swell from a reasonably strong storm previously over the Central South Pacific was fading in California (see Central South Pacific Storm - Swell #2S below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Central Pacific Storm (Swell #2S)
On Tues AM (8/10) a new gale developed east of New Zealand producing south winds at 45 kts with seas 28 ft over a small area at 40S 167W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch built rapidly to 50 kts from the south-southeast over a decent sized area with seas building to 35 ft at 47.75S 160W aimed northeast. The Jason 3 satellite confirmed sea at 41.6 ft with a peak reading to 49.7 ft in the core of the fetch aimed northeast. So the model was undercalling it. On Wed AM (8/11) fetch was elongating to the northeast over a solid sized area at 40-45 kts with 39 ft seas at 44.75S 153.75S aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 36 ft at 43S 146.5W aimed northeast. The Jason 3 satellite confirmed seas at 43 ft with one reading to 46.9 ft again beating the model. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (8/12) from 35 kts from the west with seas 32 ft at 42.5S 139.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30-35 kts from the southwest winds seas 29-30 ft at 41.25S 131.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Semi real swell to result for Tahiti, Hawaii and California with a very south angled for Hawaii. California to suffer some from shadowing from Eastern Polynesia with the core angle at peak swell generation of 201.98-204.885 degrees, but not too badly.

Southern CA: Residuals on Sun (8/22) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 197-208 degrees focused on 204.885 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Sun (8/22) fading from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 194-205 degrees focused on 201.98 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs AM (8/26) a storm is forecast developing south of New Zealand with a small area of 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas building from 36 ft at 56.25S 175W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to hold at 50+ kts but falling southeast some with seas 34 ft at 58.5S 163W aimed east. On Fri AM (8/27) a broad secondary fetch is to develop north of the core with winds 40 kts solid aimed east with seas 33 ft at 54.5S 163.25W aimed east. Fetch is to creep east and hold in the evening with seas 32 ft at 56.5S 153.75W aimed east. A tertiary fetch is to develop Sat AM (8/28) north of the secondary fetch with winds 50 kts from the west and seas 31 ft over the South Central Pacific aimed east. In the evening fetch is to build to 50-55 kts aimed east with seas 37 ft at 57S 135W moving over the Southeast Pacific. Sun AM (8/29) fetch is to continue pushing east at 50+ kts with seas 41 ft at 61.5S 121W almost east of the CA swell window. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Slowly Rebuilding
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with warm water from previous Kelvin Waves fading and present only in the east. The forecast suggests east anomalies taking over the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward in later August. And a high pressure bias is forecast to control the KWGA this Fall. Blocking high pressure is starting to rebuild and is to hold through Winter 2021-2022.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/21) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/22) east anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding at moderate strength filling the KWGA for the next week through the end of the model run on 8/29. No sign of the Active Phase of the MJO is forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/21) A weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Inactive pattern rebuilding on day 5 of the model to moderate strength building slowly through day 15 of the model run to near strong status. The dynamic model projects the Inactive Phase building far weaker to modest strength on day 10 of the model run then gone on day 15 with a neutral pattern taking over.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/22) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the Central Indian Ocean and forecast tracking east to the Central Maritime Continent while collapsing to even weaker weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase just noodling around in the Central Indian Ocean for the next 15 days at weak to very weak status and unchanged 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/21) A strong Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated moving over Central America today with a neutral pattern over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to move east over Central America on 8/28. A modest Active Phase (wet air) is forecast developing over the KWGA on 8/29tracking east and weakly filling the equatorial Pacific on 8/31 then moving to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/30 while a new cohesive Inactive Phase (dry air) starts building over the Eastern Maritime Continent.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/21) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with modest east anomalies in control of the KWGA. The forecast indicates a mix of east and west anomalies over the KWGA 8/23-9/1. After that east anomalies are to start filling the KWGA at modest strength 9/4 continuing through the end of the model run on 9/18 with the Inactive Phase developing 9/6 in the West KWGA pushing quickly east and nearly exiting the KWGA at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/22 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a modest Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading over the KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase is to fade and almost gone on 8/30 then rebuild and hold weakly 9/7-9/23 with some version of light to modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through that period. A solid Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east starting 9/16 through 11/12 with west anomalies steadily plodding east reaching the dateline by 10/9 then holding. A strong Inactive MJO pattern is to try and push into the KWGA on 11/2 but stalling finally pushing east at the end of the model run on 11/19 with west anomalies losing control over the KWGA and east anomalies trying to set up. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is barely in control limited to the area south of California (with one contour line) and the low pressure bias was gone. The high pressure contour line is to hold over the far East Pacific till 8/29 then disappear only to back-build west on the dateline on on 9/13 and holding that position filling the eastern portion of the KWGA through 11/10, then dissipating. A single contour low pressure bias is to develop 10/9 recentered over the Maritime Continent at 100E but very weak and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies to take over the KWGA east of 165E on 9/15 slowly getting shoved east as the Active Phase and west anomalies take over the KWGA later in Sept. This suggests a development of a pure neutral ENSO pattern for the Fall and Winter. Of course this is the first run of the model to suggest such a change, so its hardly believable yet. Instead, some flavor of La nina has been forecast and we'll continue to believe that until such time a something stable appears and holds on the models.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 176E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 171W. The 24 deg isotherm was fading back to 134W. Warm water has receded west and continues on that trend. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1-2 deg C were building in coverage in the far West Pacific pushing east to 150W. East of there mostly cool anomalies were building at 1-2 degs below normal from 150 meters down up to 75 meters down in the east. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was building in the east at depth. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/16 was much the same suggesting no warm water east of 160W. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down there and breaching the surface just at the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/16) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between Ecuador to 160W and -15 cms at 140W on the equator with all positive anomalies limited from 165W and points west of there. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern was redeveloping in the West Pacific. La Nina is making a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/21) The latest images depict warm water on the equator limited to the area from Ecuador west to a point a bit west of the Galapagos (110W), then only in pockets west of there to 150W with mostly cooler waters developing in waves between 105W to 150W. An area of weak warming was gone along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/21): A string of mostly warming pockets were filling the area from Ecuador to 120W then cooling from 120W to 160W.
Hi-res Overview: (8/21) A broad area of warmer than normal water was nearshore from Ecuador up to Central America and into Mexico but brick walled limited from 110W and points east of there. Cooler waters were on the equator from 110W to the dateline. The clear cool outflow that has been in place pushing from California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island has rebuilt some but not too bad. Nearshore to California from the Golden gate southward warmer water was taking control. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence an the equator but fading north of there.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/22) Today's temps were falling at -0.437 previously down to -0.716 on 8/15. Temps previously were toggling around neutral 7/20-8/5 after falling to -0.411 on 7/8. Temps before that peaked at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable and mostly below normal.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/22) Today temps were falling at -0.370 continuing a downward trend for the past 7 weeks. Previously temps peaked at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. They previously reached up to +0.224 on 6/15 and before that at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/22) - Actuals per the model indicate temps were rising in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June then starting a slow fade from -0.3 degs in early Aug. The forecast indicates temps continuing a slow fade into mid November dropping to -0.95 degs then starting to slowly rise to -0.70 degs in mid Jan 2022 pushing up to +0.00 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.75 degs in Nov starting to rise slowly in Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.23 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.55 degrees in Nov and stabilizing there into December, then rising to neutral in Feb 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (8/22): The daily index was falling to +3.46 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was falling to +3.91 after rising to +16.49 on 7/29 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to +5.28 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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