BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, August 17, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (8/17) in North and Central CA surf was waist high and weakly lined up and mushed and warbled with light westerly winds. Protected breaks were waist high and lined up and crumbled and closed out and lightly warbled from northwest breeze. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the sets on the peak and clean and weakly lined up with decent form but soft. In Ventura County waves were thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft and clean early with decent form. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and lined up with decent form though a little closed out and mostly clean with no wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had rare sets at shoulder high and lined up with good form and real clean early. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up if not closed out and a bit textured from a light onshore flow. Oahu's North Shore had a few sets at thigh to near waist high and clean early but with a sideshore/north flow. The South Shore had sets at waist high and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (8/17) California was seeing no swell of interest. Hawaii was seeing fading background swell originating from a gale that developed south of New Zealand on Fri-Sat (8/9) with 26 ft seas aimed northeast. Looking forward a tiny gale developed over the deep South Central Pacific on Tues (8/12) with 33 ft seas aimed briefly northeast.No real swell is expected from it. Another weak system developed over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific on Fri (8/15) with 32 ft seas aimed east-northeast. But of more interest was a gale that developed while tracking east and positioned south of the Tasman Sea Fri (8/15) with 45 ft seas aimed east then faded Sat (8/16) south of New Zealand with 35 ft seas aimed east into early Sun (8/17). Small swell looks likely for the mainland. Remnants from it to redevelop in the far Southeast Pacific on Tues (8/19) with 37 ft seas but not developing till it's well east of the Southern Ca swell window. Swell only for Chile seems likely. Another is forecast southeast of New Zealand on Thurs-Fri (8/22) with seas 31-32 ft aimed well northeast. Maybe some minimal swell is possible but overall it seems like the southern hemi is shutting down.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (8/17) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (8/17) the influential southern branch of the jet was tracking west to east zonally on the 55S latitude line with winds to 120 kts in one pocket but with no obvious troughs indicated in the west and the jet falling southeast over the Southeast Pacific crashing into Antarctica offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours a trough is top develop off Southern Chile on Tues (8/19) supportive of gale development but only relative to Chile and Peru. A southward displaced zonal flow is to continue over the Southwest Pacific running east on the 64S latitude line with no troughs indicated. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (8/21) a trough is to start building south of New Zealand lifting northeast being fed by 160 kts winds briefly supporting gale formation and continuing into Sat (8/23) while fading over the Central South Pacific. Perhaps a gale to result. But after that then jet is to be tracking east under New Zealand on the 63S latitude line offering nothing. Perhaps a weak trough is to be building just east of it on Sun (8/24).

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (8/17) swell from a weak New Zealand Gale is fading in Hawaii and propagating northeast targeting California possibly being joined by more energy from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific (see Weak New Zealand Gale and Small South Central Pacific Gale below). Another tiny gale built in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with swell likely for HI and Ca (see South Central Pacific Gale below). And a stronger gale built under New Zealand with swell propagating towards HI and CA (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

A gale is forecast developing on Tues PM (8/19) in the far Southeast Pacific and well east of the Southern CA swell window with seas to 36 ft at 56.6S 102.25W targeting only Chile and Peru.

Another gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Wed PM (8/20) producing 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 58.5S 167E aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (8/21) southwest winds to be 45 kts with seas building to 32 ft at 57.75S 178.25W aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kts southwest winds lift northeast with seas 34 ft at 58.25S 166.75W aimed northeast. Fetch continues tracking northeast on Fri AM (8/22) at 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 50.5S 161.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fades in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 48.5S 152.75W. Something to monitor.

Secondary fetch is possible on Sun (8/24) 0ver the same area.

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (8/7) yet another gale developed under New Zealand with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 23-24 ft at 55S 164E aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (8/8) 35-40 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast from under New Zealand with seas building to 25 ft at 60S 174E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts while lifting northeast with seas 26 ft at 59.25S 178.25W aimed northeast. Tiny swell to result.

Oahu: Swell fading on Sun (8/17) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

Southern CA: Expect tiny swell arriving on Mon (8/18) reaching 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (8/19) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding if not building on Wed (8/20) as more energy arrives at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (8/21) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (8/22) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 219 moving to 202 degrees

North CA: Expect tiny swell arriving on Mon (8/18) reaching 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (8/19) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding of not building on Wed (8/20) as more energy arrives at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-30 ft) Swell continues on Thurs (8/21) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (8/22) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 219 moving to 202 degrees

Small South Central Pacific Gale
On Mon PM (8/11) a weak gale started developing in the Central South Pacific producing south winds at 35-40 kts starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 25 ft at 48S 142.75W aimed north. On Tues AM (8/12) south winds continued over a small area at 40-45 kts aimed northeast with seas 29 ft at 51S 138W aimed northeast. Fetch continued in the evening at 45 kts from the west with seas 31 ft at 52.5S 131W aimed northeast. The gale to dissipate from there.

Southern and North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (8/20) and intermixed and buried in the Weak New Zealand Gale (see above) arriving at the same time.

South Central Pacific Gale
On Thurs PM (8/14) a small gale was developing in the upper reaches of the South Central Pacific producing southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 23 ft. On Fri AM (8/15) south winds were 45 kts with seas 29 ft at 34.5S 149W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts with seas 34 ft at 35S 139.5W aimed east. After that the gale and fetch started falling southeast offering no additional swell generation potential. Low odds for background swell production.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (8/20) building to 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaks later Thurs (8/21) at 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell starts fading on Fri (8/22) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (8/23) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180-184 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri afternoon (8/22) building to 1.1 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds on Sat (8/23) at to 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fades Sun (8/24) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (8/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction:197-202 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri afternoon (8/22) building to 1.1 ft @ 16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds on Sat (8/23) at to 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades Sun (8/24) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (8/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction:195-200 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (8/14) a gale developed south of Tasmania falling slightly southeast with northwest winds 45 kts solid and seas 39 ft 55.25S 144E aimed southeast. On Fri AM (8/15) west-northwest winds were 50 kts with the gale tracking east-southeast with seas 44 ft at 57S 153.5E on the 217 degrees path to NCal (shadowed relative to HI). In the evening 45 kt west winds were positioned south of New Zealand with 45 ft seas at 59.25S 164.5E aimed more to the east on the 212 degree path to NCal (barely in the 201 degree path to HI). On Sat AM (8/16) west winds were 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61S 177E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east with west winds 35 kts over a broad area and seas 32 ft at 58.8S 179.5W aimed east. On Sun AM (8/17) southwest winds were 35-40 kts positioned well southeast of New Zealand with seas 31 ft at 58.25S 169.75W aimed east and impacting a new ice anomaly there off the Ross Ice Shelf. Fetch and seas are to fade out from there. Swell is possible for Hawaii and CA.

Oahu: Expect background swell arrival on Sat (8/23) building to 0.8 ft @ 18 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/24) from 0.9 ft @ 16-17 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft).

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/24) building to 1.0 ft @ 20-21 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds some Mon (8/25) to 1.3 ft @ 18-19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks later Tues (8/26) at 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holds Wed (8/27) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell starts fading Thurs (8/28) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/29) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 218 moving to 213 degs and unshadowed but coming from a very long way away (i.e. long waits between sets).

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/24) building to 0.9 ft @ 20-21 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds some Mon (8/25) to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks later Tues (8/26) at 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell holds Wed (8/27) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell starts fading Thurs (8/28) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/29) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217 moving to 212 degs and unshadowed but coming from a very long way away (long time between sets).

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon PM (8/18) residual fetch from a gale previously under New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale above) is to be redeveloping over the far Southeast Pacific producing a broad fetch of southwest winds at 40 kts with seas building from 30 ft at 53S 129.75W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (8/19) south to southwest winds to be 40-45 kts but starting to move east of the southern Ca swell window with seas 34 ft at 57.25S 120.5W aimed northeast. After that the gale is to continue building into Wed AM (8/20) with seas to 39 ft at 51S 101.5W but well east of the Southern CA swell window targeting Chile and Peru. Something to monitor.

And starting Thurs PM (8/19) west winds are to start building at 45 kts south-southeast of New Zealand with seas 30 ft at 60.5S 173E aimed east. On Fri AM (8/22) southwest winds are to build to 45 kts well southeast of New Zealand while lifting east- northeast with seas 33 ft at 59S 166.75W. More development is possible beyond.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Returning - PDO Coldest In Recorded History
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/16) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/17) Today modest to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Strong east anomalies to build in coverage 8/22 over the dateline holding to 8/28 then losing coverage through the end of the model run on 9/2 while steadily moving east. Weak west west anomalies are to build east into the far West KWGA 8/23 reaching 145E filling 40% of the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (8/17) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was backtracking from 179E to 177E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 165W to 164W. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador and was backtracking surfacing from 119W to 124W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degs in the far East Pacific but with a breach of cooler water reaching the surface between 116W to 155W. And cold anomalies down to -3 degrees are building at depth centered at 132W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/11 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 160W except for a few lingering warm pockets off Ecuador. Cool anomalies were building over the deep thermocline from 150W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific with weak warm anomalies filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/11) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were generally weakly negative on the equator and up to but -5 cms below normal from the Galapagos to 140W and fading in coverage. Heights were weakly above normal in the west from 150W and points west of there. Negative anomalies at up to -15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 140W and -20 cms south of the equator at 7S south 135W. It appears the cool pool is rebuilding over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/11) indicates on 7/15 cool anomalies started rebuilding and today are filling the area from 140W to 110W and moving to the east. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral from what now looks like a developing La Nina or at least an upwelling cool water phase moving east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/16) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps over the West and East Equatorial Pacific with a clear coolish pool between 110W-180W (NINO3.4). Cool anomalies were also streaming off the California coast falling southwest but weaker than day and weeks past. This looks like ENSO Neutral trending towards La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there nearly to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/16): Temps were generally cooling over the area between Ecuador 140W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/17) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling at +0.221 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/17) Today's temps were falling to -0.674, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.3 on Aug 6. Previously temps were -0.3 (7/30), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-July.
Forecast (8/17) - Temps started fading in mid-July and are to fall into mid-Nov down to -1.00, then rising back to neutral in March 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps falling to -0.85 degs. It looks like we're heading back into La Nina in the Fall of '25, turning neutral in late Spring 2026.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 18, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.158. Temps to slowly fall to -0.345 in Oct, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.392 OND then rising some to +0.174 at the end of the model run on MAM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.311 NDJ rising to -0.170 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/17) the Daily Index was positive at +4.49 and has been generally positive the last month.
The 30 day average was falling at +2.87 and has been generally rising the last month.
The 90 day average was steady at +3.35 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table