Friday, August 16, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 13.1 secs from 239 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.4 secs from 278 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.5 secs from 196 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 65.7 degs (46086). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.1 ft @ 8.7 secs from 294 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 14.8 secs from 210 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.7 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.3 secs from 207 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 6.9 ft @ 8.5 secs from 325 degrees with southern hemi swell 2.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 197 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 10-14 kts from the northwest. Water temp 52.5 degs (013) and 60.4 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Friday (8/16) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at waist high or so and pretty warbled from northwest wind and semi rideable. Protected breaks were waist high or so and glassy but with underlying lump. At Santa Cruz residual southern hemi swell was producing surf at waist to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but inconsistent and foggy early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were maybe waist high on the sets and mostly clean with some warble intermixed. In North Orange Co waves were waist high and sometimes a little more and clean and lined up but pretty closed out. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were occasionally producing waves at head high and lined up and clean on the better sets. North San Diego had surf at waist high and lined up if not somewhat closed out and soft but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting limited hurricane swell with waves waist to maybe chest high and clean. The South Shore was getting some rideable background swell with waves waist to maybe chest high and reasonably clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves waist high and a chopped from moderate easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Friday (8/16) in California fading southern hemi swell was hitting from a fetch that developed south of the Tasman Sea on Fri (8/2) with 33 ft seas aimed east and slowly fading into late Sat (8/3) then weakly pushed northeast up the east coast of New Zealand Mon-Tues (8/6) producing 25 seas aimed northeast. Of slightly more interest was another gale that developed just southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (8/14) with up to 40 ft seas over a tiny area aimed northeast migrating east to the Southeast Pacific through Sat (8/17) with seas slowly fading from 32 ft to 28 ft over that time period. Possible swell to result. But nothing else to follow. But a possible early season low pressure system is forecast for the Eastern Gulf of Alaska early next week.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).
On Friday (8/16) northwest winds were blowing at 25-30 kts over North CA waters and 20 kts mainly off the coast for Central CA resulting in continued small northwesterly windswell. Trades were holding reasonably solid for Hawaii too at 15+ kts from California up to the Hawaiian Islands generating continued east windswell. Saturday (8/17) fetch is to be fading some for California as low pressure tries to start developing in the Western Gulf pushing east with northwest winds 30 kts early mainly over Cape Mendocino and 20 kts off Central CA and fading to 25 kts over Cape Mendocino later with windswell dropping. For Hawaii easterly fetch is to be fading too at 15 kts up to 1000 nmiles east of the Islands and dropping to 10 kts late afternoon with windswell fading out. On Sun (8/18) low pressure in the Western Gulf of Alaska is to be cutting the legs out of local high pressure with no winds or windswell producing fetch forecast for Hawaii and California. And by Monday (8/19) low pressure is to start building in the Gulf with no high pressure around offering no odds for windswell production.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Friday (8/16) north winds were 25-30 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Sat (8/17) north winds to 25-30 kts early for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA nearshore. Sunday (8/18) north winds to be fading from 15-20 kts for extreme North CA and 5-10 kts everywhere else and fading over all locations. Monday (8/19) a weak wind flow is forecast all day. Tuesday (8/20) light northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts or less for North and Central CA but 15 kts from the northwest south of Monterey Bay. Wed (8/21) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Thursday (8/22) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Friday (8/16) the influential southern branch of the jet was lifting weakly northeast under New Zealand but with winds only 70 kts offering no support for gale development. East of there the jet was falling hard south from 155W and points east of there forming a ridge and offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a new ridge is to start building under New Zealand reaching south to 61S on Sun (8/18) and on the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf while the ridge over the Southeast Pacific holds effectively offering no support for gale development and holding into Mon (8/19). Beyond 72 hours starting later on Tues (8/20) a weak trough is to try and build under New Zealand and then up into the Tasman Sea early Thurs (8/22) being fed by 140 kt winds offering good support for gale development relative to Fiji. But from 170W and points east of there the jet is to pushing steadily southeast over Antarctic Ice actively suppressing support for gale development. And by Friday (8/23) and beyond a generalized ridging pattern is to be in control of the entirety of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development.
Swell from a broad but weak gale that developed and stayed south of New Zealand is fading in California (see New Zealand Gale below). Another gale built in a better position south of New Zealand and pushed northeast with swell in the water tracking northeast (see Another New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
New Zealand Gale
Another broader gale developed south of the Tasman Sea on Fri AM (8/2) producing a large area of 35-40 kt southwest to west winds with seas 33 ft at 53S 154.5E aimed east up into the Tasman Sea and somewhat into the California swell window. In the evening the gale built but it's core was over the Ross Ice Shelf getting no traction on the oceans surface with 40 kt southwest winds exposed over ice free waters with 31 ft seas over a solid area at 55S 154.5E aimed northeast. The gale continued on Sat AM (8/3) producing 40-45 kt southwest fetch producing 29-30 ft seas at 58.5S 161E aimed northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 35 kt southwest winds were holding with 28 ft seas at 59S 164E aimed northeast and in the CA and HI swell windows. On Sun AM (8/4) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts positioned south-southwest of New Zealand with seas 27 ft over a small area aimed well northeast at 55S 157.5E targeting Tahiti and California but not Fiji or Hawaii (shadowed by New Zealand). In the evening residual 35 kts southwest winds were due south of New Zealand generating 27 ft seas at 51.5S 164.5E targeting Tahiti and California. On Mon AM (8/5) the gale was lifting northeast with 30-35 kts southwest winds along the east coast of New Zealand producing seas at 25 ft at 48S 173E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale faded with southwest winds 35 kts aimed northeast and off the northeastern tip of New Zealand with seas 24-26 ft seas at 40S 160-180W aimed northeast. Fetch tracked east on Tues AM (8/6) with 35 kt southwest wind and seas 24 ft at 40S 165W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30 kts with seas 25 ft at 40S 158W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there.
Southern CA: Residuals on Fri (8/16) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees
North CA: Residuals on Fri (8/16) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees
Another New Zealand Gale
A meaningful gale started building southeast of New Zealand on Tuesday AM (8/13) with 45-50 kt south winds over a tiny area aimed northeast with a building area of 24 ft seas at 52S 179E aimed north-northeast. In the evening south winds at 50-55 kts over a small area with 39 ft seas aimed north at 53S 180W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (8/14) south to southwest winds were 40-45 kts with the fetch lifting north and seas 41 ft over a small area at 47S 174.5W. Fetch was fading in the evening from 45 kts from the southwest with seas 35 ft at 42S 167.5W aimed northeast over a modest sized area. On Thurs AM (8/15) a small area of 40-45 kt southwest wind were tracking east-northeast with 33 ft seas at 39S 152.5W. In the evening a broad area of 30-35 kt southwest winds were in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with peak seas 28 ft at 38.5S 146W aimed east-northeast. On Friday (8/16) west-to southwest winds are to be 35-40 kts over a modest area with 30 ft seas at 41S 146.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 35+ kt east fetch is to be tracking east with seas 31 ft at 38.5S 136.5W aimed east-northeast. On Sat (8/17) the gale is to be fading with a small area of 35 kt southwest winds tracking east with seas 26 ft at 40S 131W aimed east-northeast. In the evening this system is to be fading and moving out of the SCal swell window.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on late on Mon (8/19) with swell building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs (2.5 ft). Swell building through the day on Tuesday (8/20) pushing 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft) at sunset. Swell holding steady on Wed (8/21) at 2.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/22) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/23) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Wed (8/21) with period 20 secs and size not noticeable. Swell slowly building on Thurs (8/22) to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (8/23) to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Wed (8/21) with period 20 secs and size not noticeable. Swell slowly building on Thurs (8/22) to 1.8 ft @ 18 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (8/23) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a possibly improving pattern is forecast.
Mon AM (8/19) a small low pressure system is to start building in the Central Gulf of Alaska producing 30-35 kt west winds over a tiny area with seas building. In the evening a small fetch of 35 kt west winds are to be building in the gales south quadrant off the Pacific Northwest with 18 ft seas building over a tiny area at 43N 146.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (8/20) the gale is to be dissipating off Cape Mendocino with 20-25 kts west winds and seas fading from 15 ft at 40N 137W. Possible windswell to result for North and Central CA.
On Mon AM (8/19) a gale is to start building just west of the dateline with 30-35 kt northwest winds over a small area with seas building from 17 ft at 38N 176E aimed southeast. In the evening a decent but small fetch of 35 kt northwest winds are to build some in coverage with seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 42N 180W. The gale is to hold stationary on Tues AM (9/20) with 30 kt west winds and seas 18-20 ft aimed east at 43N 179W. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
On Tuesday (8/20) low pressure and a front off the Pacific Northwest is to dominate the East Pacific offering no odds for high pressure formation and therefore no odds for windswell production for California or Hawaii. Wednesday (8/21) weak high pressure is to be trying to develop 600 nmiles north of Hawaii ridging east producing 15 kt north winds along the North CA coast and up to 20 kts for Central CA focused on Pt Conception but only pockets of east winds east of Hawaii likely resulting in no windswell production. Thurs (8/22) more low pressure is to be in the Northern Gulf offering no high pressure or windswell production for California. For Hawaii east winds are to be 15 kts up to 450 nmiles east of the Islands offering weak odds for windswell production. Friday (8/23) a modest fetch of 15+ kt northwest winds is forecast along all of the North and Central CA coast possibly setting up minimal northerly windswell at exposed breaks. For Hawaii no fetch of 15 kts or greater is forecast east of the Islands offering no windswell production potential.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Cool Water Building West on Equator
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue, and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/15) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds moderate strength extending west to 160W then fading and almost turning westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central equatorial Pacific to the dateline then turning moderately westerly over the core of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/16) moderate westerly anomalies were on the dateline and mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast is for westerly anomalies to slowly fade centered over the dateline through 8/20 with weak east anomalies starting to build on the dateline towards the end of the model run on 8/23. A mostly neutral MJO pattern is forecast over the next 7 days.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (8/15) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this pattern is to hold unchanged for the next 15 days. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/16) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak in strength over the West Pacific and is to inch it's way slowly east while over the West Indian Ocean at day 15 of the model run. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase very weak over the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (8/16) This model depicts a weak to modest Active Phase over the Central Pacific today and tracking east reaching Central America 9/5. After that a building Inactive pattern is to develop in the West Pacific 8/21 tracking east moving up to Central America at the end of the model run on 9/25. A weak mixed MJO pattern is to start developing in the West Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/15) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today but with modest west anomalies on the dateline. The forecast depicts these west anomalies holding decently into 8/22, then fading some but still holding and rebuilding in early Sept holding through the end of the model run on 9/12.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/16) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies near the dateline. The forecast has a dead neutral MJO signal holding through 8/21 but with weak west anomalies holding on the dateline. A weak and short lived Inactive MJO is to set up 8/21 through 9/9 but with weak west anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA. After that a very weak but broad Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 9/14 holding through 10/25 with weak to modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to develop in the KWGA on 10/22 pushing east through the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/13 but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold though losing some slight coverage around 10/3, only to rebuild to it's previous coverage on 10/10 and filling the KWGA till the end of the model run. If this pattern holds over the next few weeks, this would constitute a significant upgrade. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and maybe rebuild or maybe not. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral. but no sign of La Nina is depicted.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/16) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a decent size area but still retrograding west reaching east to only 180W while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 169W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 159W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded on 7/11 from 107W to 120W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling most of the subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline) and indicative of a possible stationary Kelvin Wave #5 there. In the East Pacific warm anomalies reached east to 103W over a shallow area reaching only 50 meters down and were no longer reaching Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/11 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small Kelvin Wave under the Central equatorial Pacific from 160E to 130W at +1.0 degs above normal, building in depth reaching down 175 meters. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to nearly the surface from 135W to Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/11) A small pocket of positive anomalies were present under the dateline at +5 cms from 178E to 165W. Otherwise no positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific with neutral anomalies over the bulk of the equator. And a building area of negative anomalies at -5 cms was from Ecuador west to 140W suggestive of La Nina.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/15) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies are present north of the equator from Central America west to 135W and then with broader coverage from 140W to the dateline but with a stream of cool waters along the coast of Chile up to Peru then streaming west on the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 140W solidly suggestive of La Nina. And warm anomalies previously south of the equator in that region were fading in coverage holding over only a thin stream aligned west to east centered at 10S. At this time there is really no remaining signs of El Nino remaining in the East equatorial Pacific with La Nina developing there instead.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/15): A cooling trend/stream remained in-place pushing from off Ecuador west to 150W on the equator and building stronger near the Galapagos today compared to days past. Cool pockets were over that area interspersed with a few tiny pockets of warming water, but the cool anomalies were clearly in control. In general the trend towards a cooler pattern in the equatorial Pacific is very apparent and is showing no signs of fading.
Hi-res Overview: (8/15) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west off Ecuador to 145W. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, mainly north of the equator but all but gone south of the equator. But that unmistakable stream of cool water was running west on the equator from just off the Peruvian Coast and then solidly from the Galapagos west to 145W indicative of La Nina. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be developing.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/16) Today's temps were steady today at -0.591 and have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/16) Today temps were falling hard today at -0.154 today. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/15) The model indicates a cooling trend has set up with temps +0.05 degs in August and holding through Oct then falling through Dec to -0.20 degrees. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start rebuilding reaching +0.50 degs by April 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern is forecast, neither El Nino nor La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/16): The daily index was negative today at -16.21, negative the last 5 days. The 30 day average was falling at -1.04. The 90 day average was falling at -7.56, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table