Tuesday, August 14, 2018
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 9.0 secs from 179 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.9 secs from 156 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 74.1 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 196 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 209 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.9 secs from 215 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.0 secs from 214 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 13.9 secs from 165 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temp 58.3 degs.
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (8/14) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the waist to chest high range and soft and heavily textured but somewhat rideable. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and soft but clean and barely rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high high on the sets and clean and somewhat lined up but a bit on the soft side. In Southern California/Ventura surf was small with sets waist high on the peak and soft but clean and lined up when it came. In North Orange Co waves were waist high and clean coming form the south but soft and weak. South Orange Country's best breaks were getting sets at head high and real clean and lined up but soft and inconsistent. In North San Diego surf was waist high on the sets and clean but very soft and closed out of the bigger waves. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting fading remnants of southern hemi swell with waves waist high or so on the rare sets and clean but soft and slow. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves knee high or less and textured from light east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (8/14) southern hemi swell from the South Central Pacific was all but gone in Hawaii and fading fast in California. Another gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (8/9) with up to 32 ft seas briefly aimed north. That swell is pushing north towards California and Central America. But nothing else is to follow with virtually no gales forecast in the southern hemi for the next week. Up north the models are teasing concerning formation of a small gale in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska over the coming weekend. And there's some hope for minimal windswell for North and Central CA and exposed east facing shores in Hawaii by the weekend too. And the tropics are to be quiet for now but the West Pacific is to possibly awake over the weekend.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday AM (8/14) no swell of interest was in the water or being generated in the North Pacific, including local windswell.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.
California: On Tuesday (8/14) weak high pressure at 1028 mbs was moving east through the Central Gulf of Alaska but not ridging into California with any magnitude resulting in a generally slack wind pattern along the California coast (north winds 10-15 kts) offering no potential to develop meaningful windswell. For Wed and Thurs (8/16) high pressure in the Gulf is to remain weak generating no meaningful north winds nearshore to California and offering no fetch to produce windswell. By Friday (8/17) a weak gradient is to set up over north Cape Mendocino as the high pushes to within 600 nmiles of the coast at 1030 mbs with north winds 20+ kts offering limited support for windswell development. See QuikCAST's for details.
Hawaii: On Tuesday (8/14) high pressure at 1028 mbs was in the Gulf of Alaska and small in coverage generating only weak easterly trades at 10-15 kts east of Hawaii with not enough velocity to generate windswell. More of the same is forecast Wed-Fri (8/17) with trades below 15 kts and no windswell production forecast. See QuikCAST's for details.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Storm Hector: On Tuesday (8/14) Hector was just west of the dateline tracking west-northwest with winds 35 kts (barely tropical storm status) ad is to continue on that heading for 48 hours while weakening to depression status, then turning north beyond 48 hours out and weakening if not fully dissipated by Sat AM (8/18). No swell production is forecast.
Otherwise no swell producing tropical systems were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (8/14) a light flow (10 kts or less) was in control for all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. Light winds forecast for the entire state on Wed-Thurs (8/16) other than 15 kt north winds over Pt Conception. On Fri (8/17) north winds are to start building over Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena at 20+ kts and 10-15 kts south of Pt Arena. More of the same is forecast Sat (8/18) but with north winds 10 kts or less south of Pt Arena and that pattern holding Sun-Tues (8/21).
On Tuesday AM (8/14) the southern branch of the jetstream was ridging south starting south of New Zealand reaching down to 70S and over the Ross Ice Shelf sweeping east while lifting gently northeast reaching up to 63S on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window with winds never exceeding 100 kts and offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours a new ridge is to build in the west pushing the jet down to 75S under New Zealand on Thurs (8/16) and not reaching north of 65S in the east through Fri (8/17) all over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (8/18) the ridge is to slowly weaken with winds fading to 90 kts in one pocket over the Central South Pacific by Sun (8/19) and less elsewhere and even that one pocket is to fade into Tues (8/21) with a weak a diffuse flow forecast centered roughly near 65S but down to 75S over the Southeast Pacific offering virtually no support for gale development. This is a historically weak jetstream pattern for this time of year.
On Tuesday (8/14) swell from a gale previously in the deep Central South Pacific was fading in California (see Another Central South Pacific Gale). And another swell was pushing north from the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Another Central South Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (8/3) another gale formed in the deep South Central Pacific tiny in size with 40-45 kt south winds aimed north starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 26 ft at 57S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch built in coverage but fading in velocity at 35 kts aimed north with seas 26-28 ft at 52S 152W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (8/4) fetch was fading in velocity at 35 kts but still decent in coverage from the south with seas 25 ft at 48S 156W aimed north. In the evening fetch faded in coverage still at 35 kts from the south lifting north with seas 24 ft at 44.5S 152W. The gael faded from there. Some degrees of limited swell could result for Hawaii and more so for California down into Central America. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Swell fading on Tues (8/14) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (8/15) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees
North CA: Swell fading on Tues (8/14) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that. Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific on Wednesday PM (8/8) with 45 kt south winds pushing well north producing 29 ft seas at 60S 122W. On Thurs AM (8/9) fetch is to fade from barely 40 kts over a tiny area and seas 32 ft at 54.5S 121W. The gale is to fade and move east of the Southern CA swell window and of no interest after that. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/16) near sunrise with period 18 secs and size tiny but building to 3.3 ft @ 17 secs later (5.0-5.5 ft). On Fri (8/17) swell building to 4.0 ft @ 16 secs (6.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/18) from 3.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180-182 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/16) mid-day with period 18 secs and size tiny but building to 2.6 ft @ 17 secs later (4.5 ft). On Fri (8/17) swell building to 3.2 ft @ 16 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/18) from 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 178-180 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models are suggesting some sort of gale low developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri PM (8/17) at 988 mbs producing northwest winds 30-35 kts over a small area in it's southwest quadrant aimed towards Hawaii and the US West Coast with seas building from 17 ft. On Sat AM (8/18) the gale is to lift rapidly north just south of the Eastern Aleutians producing 40 kt north winds over a short fetch aimed south with 22 ft seas building over a small area at 51N 160W targeting Hawaii building briefly to 25 ft at 50N 161W aimed south late AM. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the north with seas fading from 22 ft at 49N 160W targeting mainly Hawaii. This system to dissipate from there with no meaningful sea production forecast thereafter. Something to monitor for the next few days.
California: On Saturday (8/18) high pressure is to hold at 1030 mbs 600 nmiles off Oregon continuing to generate a weak gradient and north winds at 20 kts along the Cape Mendocino coast but light south of Pt Arena offering continue potential for weak north windswell production relative to North and Central CA. More of the same is forecast Sunday-Tuesday (8/21) with north winds 20+ kts for the Cape Mendocino area but light south of Pt Arena with continue weak north windswell expected at exposed breaks down into Central CA.
Hawaii: By Saturday (8/18) high pressure in the Eastern Gulf is to build to 1030 mbs ridging south with a tropical wave 250 nmiles southeast of the Big Island producing a gradient and east winds at 15 kts starting to generated east windswell pushing into the Big Islands and exposed east facing shores of the other Islands. More of the same is forecast Sunday and Monday (8/20) with high pressure induced fetch being enhanced by a new potential tropical system on Tues (8/21) positioned 600 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island with a broad area of 15 kt east winds pushing from the tropical system over the Hawaiian Islands and 20+ kt east winds 600 nmiles out. Improved odds for windswell production at that time.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Details to follow...
ESPI Finally Turns Positive - SOI Continues Negative - Kelvin Wave #2 Building
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in July, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Mon (8/13) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening significantly south of Hawaii and turning moderately from the west at 170E and west of there over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific then turning moderate westerly starting south of Hawaii and building to some over the entirety of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/14) moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA and forecast to hold for one more day, then start fading but still solid into 8/17. After that weak east anomalies are forecast developing over the entirety of the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/21. In essence, a weak Westerly Wind Burst is occurring but is on the verge of fading.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (8/13) A modest Active/Wet MJO signal was over the KWGA but with dry anomalies just south of the KWGA. The statistical model depicts that Active/Wet MJO signal is to steadily weaken and gone at day 8 with a neutral MJO signal indicated turning very weakly dry at the end of the model run (on day 15). The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with the Active/West Phase fading at day 5 and a weak Inactive/Dry Phase developing at day 8 and holding through the end of the model run. The models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/14) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was modest and stalled over the Western Pacific and collapsing. It is to continue dissipating while backtracking to the Maritime Continent and stalled there at the end of the model run 2 weeks out and very weak. The GEFS model depicts a variant of the same pattern but with the Active Phase redeveloping and building to moderate strength over the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model: (8/11) This model depicts a Active/Wet MJO signal was over the Central-East Pacific and is to be easing east over Central America on 8/31. A modest Inactive/Dry pattern is to follow in the West Pacific starting 8/23 making slow east headway reaching Central America at the end of the model run on 9/20. At that time a neutral MJO pattern is to be developing over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/13) This model depicts moderate plus west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates those west anomalies to hold solid in the KWGA through 8/15 then fading but still with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA, then rebuilding 8/21 and refilling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/7. Basically non-stop west anomalies are on the charts for the next month. It certainly smells of El Nino if the model is correct.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/14) This model depicts the Active/Wet Phase of the MJO is well past it's peak over the KWGA with moderate west anomalies over the entirety of the KWGA. This weak Active MJO pattern is to fade through 8/20 with a weak Inactive MJO signal taking over 8/15-9/5 but with modest west anomalies holding over the KWGA. A pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO is to develop on 9/8 holding through the end of the model run on 11/11 with moderate west anomalies in the KWGA 9/5 through the end of the model run. A previous Westerly Wind Burst forecast 9/20-10/22 has vaporized from the model. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and built from 2 contour lines to 3 on 7/8 then building in coverage 7/24 and is to hold solid through the end of the model run. This means we are biased towards El Nino through the coming Fall season. The eastern edge of the Low Pressure bias is to ease east to 120W (over California) by 10/6. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking steadily and is to be gone by 9/22. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias and were originally thought to reach that state on 8/8 or 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8). Based on current data, we're thinking coupling should occur more like 8/28 now. This pattern is more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/14) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs and migrating east now to 172E (8/11). The 28 deg isotherm line started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 to 153W on 7/10 and to 163W on 8/10). It is now moving east again at 160W due to development of Kelvin Wave #2 under the West Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was 100 meters deep at 140W but retracted from the coast of Ecuador and was breaching the surface at 125W on 8/10. Today it is moving east again at 120W. Anomaly wise warm waters associated with the February Kelvin Wave are gone with barely neutral anomalies in the far East equatorial Pacific. To the west warm anomalies are building indicative of the new Kelvin Wave (#2) at +3 degs centered under 170W down 150 meters and with a finger of +1.0 degs anomalies reaching east to 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 is a little more optimistic, with remnants of the first Kelvin Wave still holding over a shallow area in the East Pacific from 140W eastward building to +3.5 degs centered at 110W extending east to 105W but not reaching Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 110W-145W. The Second Kelvin Wave was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline at +3.0 degs reaching east to 130W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and broad in coverage to 140W at +5-10 cms indicative of a new Kelvin Wave (#2) building. East of there it weakened some with 5 cms anomalies continuing broad to 1150W, but no further east, remnants of Kelvin Wave #1. There were no breaks over that entire area. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/13) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate mostly neutral anomalies were along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile. Isolated pockets of warm water were erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos west to 130W, then far more coherent west of there out to the dateline. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area north of the equator from Mexico out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/13): An elongated area with pockets of alternating warming and cooling were strung along the equator from the Galapagos to 125W indicative of the end of Kelvin Wave #1's eruption coupled with a fading easterly wind burst over that area supporting cool upwelling. Temps were normal warming slightly along the coasts of Chile and Peru. Cooling previously solid off Central West Africa presumably due to east winds and upwelling have dissipated. And that warming trend appears to start being mirrored west of Ecuador.
Hi-res Overview: (8/13) An area of weak cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Of interest was mild warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 10S up to 20N, but with 2 pockets of cooler water at 115W and 130W. More coherent warming was on the equator from 135W to 140E. The remnant pocket of cool water from La Nina was limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 140-160W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/14) Today's temps were steady at -0.614 degs. That is up some but still lower than the big peak at +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.60 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/14) Today temps were rising slightly at +0.258, down from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/14) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising in early Oct to +1.35 degs and to +1.60 degs in Nov then slowly fading through April 2019 down to +1.10 degs. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume depicts temps at +0.5 degs in July and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in Nov and holding there into Feb 2019. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/14): The daily index was rising some today but still well negative at -19.85 and has been negative for 14 days. The 30 day average was falling today to -3.84 suggesting the Active Phase of the MJO was building. The 90 day average was falling at -2.24. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (8/14) Today the index was rising solidly at +0.11. Today's reading is the first time it's turned positive and beats the previous highest peak (-0.09 on 7/2) and the highest it has been in a year. This suggest that perhaps El Nino is starting to get better coupled in the atmosphere. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.10, Mar -0.51, April -0.85, May -0.61, June -0.96. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table