BUOY ROUNDUP
Wednesday, August 13, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (8/13) in North and Central CA surf was waist to maybe chest high and fairly lined up and mostly8 closed out and clean with some light texture on top. Protected breaks were thigh high or so and lined up and mushed and clean and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead on the bigger sets and clean and lined up with good form. In Ventura County waves were up to waist high plus on the sets and somewhat lined up and clean early with decent form. Central Orange County had sets 1-2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with decent form though a little closed out and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and and lined up with good form and clean early. North San Diego had rare sets at 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean but pretty closed out and no one out. Oahu's North Shore was near flat and cleanish early but with northeast trades adding some warble. The South Shore had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was near flat with waves to thigh high and warbled from modest east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (8/13) California was seeing the beginnings of the end of swell that originated from a complex series of gales with the first under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (7/31) with 37-40 ft seas aimed east, the second south of the Tasman Sea on Thurs-Fri (8/1) with up to 45 ft seas aimed east and the third over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific on Sun-Mon (8/4) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed well north. This swell was also fading and nearly out in Hawaii. Another system developed south of New Zealand on Fri-Sat (8/9) with 26 ft seas aimed northeast only offering small background energy. Looking forward a tiny gale developed over the deep South Central Pacific on Tues (8/12) with 33 ft seas aimed briefly northeast. Another weak system is forecast for the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific on Fri (8/15) with 32 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Of more interest is a gale forecast tracking east and positioned south of the Tasman Sea Fri (8/15) with 44 ft seas aimed east then fading Sat (8/16) south of New Zealand with 37 ft seas aimed east into Sun (8/17) with 34 ft seas. Swell looks likely. And another is forecast southeast of New Zealand on Wed (8/20) with seas to 39 ft. It looks promising.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (8/13) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Post-Tropical Storm Henriette was well northwest of Hawaii on Wed AM (8/13) offering no swell production potential.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday (8/13) the influential southern branch of the jet was lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific forming a weak trough being fed by 100 kts winds offering some minimal support for gale formation. But a strong ridge was pushing south over the far Southeast Pacific offering nothing and a weak zonal flow was under New Zealand with no troughs indicated offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours starting Wed PM (8/13) winds is to start building under New Zealand lifting northeast reaching 160 kts on Thurs AM (8/14) forming a trough offering good support for gale development while pushing east early Sat (8/16) over the Central South Pacific. And that trough is to perhaps support gale development over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific (further north) on Sat. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (8/18) another pocket of winds are to start building under New Zealand lifting northeast at 140 kts and then pulse in the same area on Wed (8/20) with winds to 150 kts offering yet more potential. Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (8/13) swell was starting to fade in California and almost gone in Hawaii from a complex series of gales that formed under New Zealand, Tasmania and the South Central Pacific (see New Zealand Complex Components below) And swell from a weak New Zealand Gale is propagating northeast behind that (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).

On Mon PM (8/11) a weak gale started developing in the Central South Pacific producing south winds at 35-40 kts starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 25 ft at 48S 142.75W aimed north. On Tues AM (8/12) south winds continued over a small area at 40-45 kts aimed northeast with seas 29 ft at 51S 138W aimed northeast. Fetch continued in the evening at 45 kts from the west with seas 31 ft at 52.5S 131W aimed northeast. The gale to dissipate from there.

Southern and North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (8/20) and intermixed and buried in the Weak New Zealand Gale (see below) arriving at the same time.

Possible New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (8/14) a gale is forecast developing south of Tasmania falling slightly southeast with northwest winds 50 kts and seas 42 ft 54.25S 143.5E aimed east-southeast. On Fri AM (8/15) west-northwest winds to be 50 kts with the gael tracking east-southeast with seas 44 ft at 56S 153E. In the evening 40 kt west winds are to positioned south of New Zealand with 39 ft seas at 59.25S 165E aimed more to the east. On Sat AM (8/16) west winds are to be 40 kts with seas 37 ft at 60S 172.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to pulse some with southwest winds 40 kts over a broad area and seas 35 ft at 58.25S 176E aimed east. On Sun AM (8/17) southwest winds to be 40 kts positioned southeast of New Zealand with seas 34 ft at 57.75S 177.5W aimed east. Fetch fading from 35 kts in the evening with seas 32 ft at 55.5S 165.25W aimed east. Fetch gone after that. Something to monitor.

South Central Pacific
On Fri AM (8/15) a small gale is forecast developing in the upper reaches of the South Central Pacific with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 26-27 ft at 34.5S 149W aimed northeast. In the evening west winds to be 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 35S 139W aimed east. After that the gale and fetch is to be falling southeast offering no additional swell generation potential.

New Zealand Complex Gale - Swell #1S
On Wed PM (7/30) a storm was tracking east under New Zealand with 50 kts southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 57.25S 157.75E aimed northeast briefly building to 40 ft in the evening. On Thurs AM (7/31) the storm was fading to gale status under New Zealand with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 57.25S 168E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts over a large area with 40 kt west winds in one area and seas 31 ft at 55S 180W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (8/1) fetch was fading from the west at 30-35 kts and seas fading from 29 ft at 55S 168W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated after that.

Southern CA: Swell fades some on Wed (8/13) from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). On Thurs (8/14) swell fades from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/15) 2.0 ft @ 14 secs mid-AM (3.0 ft). Swell fades on Sat (8/16) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees moving to 205 degrees

North CA: Swell fades some on Wed (8/13) from 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). On Thurs (8/14) swell fades from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/15) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fades on Sat (8/16) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 218 degrees moving to 206 degrees

Additional New Zealand Complex Swell Components
Part #1 Tasmania Storm - On Thurs PM (7/31) another small storm developed south of Tasmania with 55 kt west winds and seas 45 ft at 57.25S 141.5e aimed east. On Fri AM (8/1) fetch was fading fast from 45 kts and seas 41 ft at 54.25S 152.25E aimed east. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 53S 165E aimed east and partially impacting Auckland Island. residuals fetch was fading Sat Am (8/2) from 35-40 kts from the west and seas fading from 27 ft aimed southeast at 60S 153W impacting Antarctic Ice.

Swell from this system is to become embedded or to extend the life of the New Zealand Complex Gale swell forecast above. California: Swell Direction 220 degrees. Swell arrival with period 20 secs on Sun (8/10) near 5 PM dropping to 17 secs 5 AM Tues (8/12). Hawaii: all this swell will be coming up the Tasman Sea great circle path at 208 degs and well filtered by Fiji and likely not significant in size.

Part #2 - South Central Pacific Gale (another potential component of the upcoming New Zealand Complex Gale swell)
On Sat PM (8/2) yet another gale developed on the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with 35-40 kts south winds east of New Zealand and seas building from 25 ft at 33S 163W aimed north. On Sun AM south winds were 40-45 kts stationary and seas 29 ft at 41S 159W aimed due north at Hawaii with sideband energy at California. In the evening south winds held at 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 38.75S 159.5W aimed north. On Mon AM (8/4) south winds were fading from 35-40 kts solid with seas 28 ft at 39S 158.25W aimed north. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 43.5S 155W aimed north.

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (8/7) yet another gale developed under New Zealand with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 23-24 ft at 55S 164E aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (8/8) 35-40 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast from under New Zealand with seas building to 25 ft at 60S 174E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts while lifting northeast with seas 26 ft at 59.25S 178.25W aimed northeast. Tiny swell to result.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/15) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (8/16) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/17) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

Southern CA: Expect tiny swell arriving on Mon (8/18) reaching 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (8/19) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding if not building on Wed (8/20) as more energy arrives at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (8/21) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (8/22) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 219 moving to 202 degrees

North CA: Expect tiny swell arriving on Mon (8/18) reaching 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (8/19) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding of not building on Wed (8/20) as more energy arrives at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-30 ft) Swell continues on Thurs (8/21) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (8/22) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 219 moving to 202 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues AM (8/19) west winds are to start building at 45 kts southwest of New Zealand with seas 32 ft at 61S 148E aimed east. In the evening southwest winds are to build strongly south of New Zealand but partially over the Ross Ice Shelf at 50-55 kts and seas 32 ft at 61.75S 173.75E. On Wed AM (8/20) southwest winds to be 40 kts over a broad area and 45-50 kts over a smaller embedded area with seas 39 ft at 58.25S 170W aimed east-northeast. More energy from this system to follow.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Trying to Return - PDO Coldest In Recorded History
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/12) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and very weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/13) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Modest east anomalies are to hold until 8/16 building to strong status centered over the dateline holding through 8/26 then still moderate plus through the end of the model run on 8/28 but steadily moving east. Weak west west anomalies are to build east into the far West KWGA 8/22 reaching 150E 8/23 filling 50% of the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (8/13) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was backtracking from 179E to 177E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was stationary to 165W. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador and is surfacing at 119W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and neutral in the far East Pacific but with a breach of cooler water reaching the surface between 105W to 180W. And cold anomalies down to -4 degrees are building at depth centered at 138W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of the dateline except for a few lingering pockets off Ecuador. Cool anomalies were building over the deep thermocline from 150W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific with weak warm anomalies filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were generally weakly negative on the equator and up to but -5 cms below normal from Ecuador to 150W and growing to the east. Heights were weakly above normal in the west from 175E and points west of there. Negative anomalies at up to -15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 135W and -20 cms south of the equator at 7S south 125W. It appears the cool pool is rebuilding over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/6) indicates on 7/15 cool anomalies started rebuilding and today are filling the area from 145W to 105W building in coverage to the east. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral from what now looks like a developing La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/12) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps over the West and East Equatorial Pacific with a clear cool pool between 110W-180W (NINO3.4). Cool anomalies were also streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N (just south of Hawaii) then dissipating outlining the normal Aleutian high pressure system. This looks like ENSO Neutral trending towards La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there nearly to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/12): Temps were cooling pretty consistently from the 90W to 140W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/13) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling at +0.196 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/13) Today's temps were falling to -0.614, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.3 on Aug 6. Previously temps were -0.3 (7/30), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-July.
Forecast (8/13) - Temps started fading in mid-July and are to fall into mid-Nov down to -0.85, then rising back to neutral in March 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps falling to -0.75 degs. It looks like we're heading back into La Nina in the Fall of '25, turning neutral in late Spring 2026.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 18, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.158. Temps to slowly fall to -0.345 in Oct, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.392 OND then rising some to +0.174 at the end of the model run on MAM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.311 NDJ rising to -0.170 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/13) the Daily Index was positive at 4.43 and has been generally positive the last month.
The 30 day average was falling at +3.88 and has been generally rising the last month.
The 90 day average was falling at +3.53 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table