Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 12.5 secs from 188 degrees. Water temp 79.9 (Barbers Pt), 79.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 8.3 secs from 68 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 6.6 secs from 40 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 3108 degrees and southern hemi background swell 1.7 ft @ 17.0 secs from 168 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-23 kts. Water temperature 58.8 degs, 59.0 (Harvest 071), 67.5 (Topanga 103), 66.2 (Long Beach 215), 73.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 74.1 (Del Mar 153), 73.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.0 ft @ 18.4 secs from 208 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.0 ft @ 6.3 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 18.1 secs from 201 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 17.7 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 17.6 secs from 193 degrees. Water temperature was 72.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 6.7 secs with northwest windswell 4.5 ft @ 6.3 secs from 323 degrees and background southern hemi swell 1.0 ft @ 18.3 secs from 189 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-25 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 10-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and SSW at 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.5 (San Francisco 46026), 55.9 (SF Bar 142), 55.9 (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 53.2 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (8/13) in North and Central CA waves were thigh high and warbled and very mushed and weak with modest west winds early. Protected breaks were thigh to maybe waist high and mushed and weak and a little textured from northwest wind. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to occasionally waist high and clean and weak but bigger than days past. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high on occasion and weak, soft and mushed but clean with some underlying warble early. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up coming from the south and fairly clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at shoulder high and lined up with good form and real clean early. North San Diego had sets to waist high and lined up and pretty weak but fairly clean early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had a few thigh high sets and weak and soft but clean early. The East Shore was waist high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (8/13) small swell was starting to show in California originating from a tiny gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific Mon-Tues (8/6) lifting north with seas to 30 ft over a small area. No swell of interest was showing in Hawaii. A small gale developed while pushing east to east-southeast under New Zealand Mon-Tues (8/6) with up to 36 ft seas aimed east but again only over a small area. Low odds of any swell resulting. And a third storm developed in the deep South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (8/9) with up to 48 ft seas aimed east to southeast. Low odds of swell resulting radiating north into CA or HI. Looking forward on Mon-Tues (8/13) a gale was tracking northeast along the coast of New Zealand producing 25-26 ft seas aimed northeast possibly resulting in small swell mainly for Hawaii. Nothing else is forecast beyond.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/13) no swell was in the water or being produced.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Tropical Update
No swell producing tropical systems were occurring or forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (8/14) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for the SF Bay Area early and 20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay and real shallow. Minimal junky northwest local windswell expected.
Thurs AM (8/15) the gradient builds slightly with northwest winds 15+ kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds hold over North CA at 15 kts and 20-25 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay over a broader area. Windswell building some.
Fri AM (8/16) the gradient holds producing 20 kt northwest winds for North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 20 kts for all of North and Central CA. Improving odds for windswell development.
Sat AM (8/17) northwest winds and the weak gradient are to be fading at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early and shallow. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA. Short period junky windswell at best.
Sun AM (8/18) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon no real change forecast. No windswell forecast.
Mon (8/19) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and most of Central CA but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No windswell expected.
Tues (8/20) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay early. No windswell production forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater for the entire 10 day forecast period. Temps at the intersection 50-55 degs building to 55-60 degs starting Thurs (8/15) building to 50-60 degrees starting Mon (8/19) and holding through the end of the model run on Thurs (8/22).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (8/13) the southern branch of the jet was lifting north just east of New Zealand forming a trough but being fed by only 80 kts offering little support for gale formation. East of there the southern branch of the jet was weak tracking east on the 55S latitude line at 80 kts with no troughs offering not support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the weak trough east of New Zealand is to fade on Thurs (8/15) offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (8/17) wind energy is to build some pushing east from New Zealand with winds building to 140 kts with a trough starting to build south of New Zealand lifting due north with winds also 140 kts offering support for gale formation. The trough is to hold into Sun (8/18) then starting to fade out. East of there the jet is to be pushing hard south forming a major ridge covering the entirety of the South Pacific other than the area under New Zealand effectively shutting down any potential for gale formation. And the pattern of some sort of weak trough under New Zealand and a solid ridge over the rest of the South Pacific is to hold through the end of the model run on Tues (8/20).

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/13) swell from a gale previously pushing north over the Southeast Pacific is starting to hit California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below) . A second gale previously under New Zealand that tracked east-southeast is to result in no meaningful swell (see New Zealand Gale below). And a storm formed in the deep Southwest Pacific tracking east offering some limited potential (see Central South Pacific Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is developing just east of New Zealand (see Small New Zealand Gale below). Otherwise not swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (8/5) a tiny gale developed in the Southeast Pacific with 45 kt south winds and seas building while lifting due north. In the evening south winds were 45 kts over a small area with seas 30 ft at 48.5S 135.5W aimed north. The gale continued north Tues AM (8/6) with winds fading from 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 43.5S 131.5W aimed north-northeast. In the evening that gale is to be fading while turning northeast with winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 38.5S 126.5W aimed northeast. The gale to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Small swell is to arrive starting Tues (8/13) reaching 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). On Wed (8/14) swell is to peak at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs early and fading steadily (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Small swell is to arrive starting late Tues (8/13) reaching 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). On Wed (8/14) swell is to peak at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early and fading steadily (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

New Zealand Gale
Also on Mon PM (8/5) a gale developed while tracking east well south of New Zealand with west winds 50 kts and seas 36 ft at 58S 169E aimed east. On Tues AM (8/6) the gale is to expand while tracking east with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft over a moderate area at 58.75S 179.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be fading from 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61.75S 173.75W aimed east-southeast starting to impact the Ross Ice Shelf. The gale to fade from there. No meaningful swell is to result given the gales south-southeast heading.

South Central Pacific
A gale developed southwest of New Zealand on Wed PM (8/7) producing southwest winds 40-45 kts trying to get traction with 23 ft seas developing at 57.25S 177.75W aimed east. On Thurs AM (8/8) a solid area of 50-55 kt west winds were in-play and seas building from 40 ft at 60.75S 166.5W aimed east. The Jason-3 satellite pass near the core of the storm at 17Z and recorded a peak reading of seas at 52.2 ft with a 15 reading average at 47.7 ft just north of the fetch area. In the evening the gale tracked east-northeast with 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 60.25S 155.75W aimed east almost impacting Antarctic Ice. On Fri AM (9/8) fetch was fading from 35 kts over a broad area aimed east with seas fading from 29 ft at 58.75S 145.75W aimed east. The Jason-3 satellite made another successful pass reporting seas 30.6 ft (15 reading average) with a peak reading to 34.7 ft. The gale was fading from 35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 27 ft at 58S 138.5W aimed east-northeast.

Given the due east trajectory of the storm there very low odds of meaningful swell resulting radiating up into California and even less for Hawaii. But given the relatively high confirmed sea heights as compared to the models projections, some swell arrival times are projected below for tracking purposes.

Southern CA: Rough data suggests extremely low odds of swell energy arriving at 25 secs starting Wed (8/14) at 5 PM. Swell period dropping to 22 secs on Thurs (8/15) at 5 PM with odds for swell size building some. Swell to peak as period hits 20 secs on Fri (8/16) at 11 AM. Swell fading Sat 8 AM (8/17) as period drops to 18 secs. Swell fading as period hits 17 secs at 11 PM on Saturday. Swell Direction: 201 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests extremely low odds of swell energy arriving at 25 secs starting 3 AM Thurs (8/15) at 5 PM. Swell period dropping to 22 secs on Thurs (8/15) at 11 PM with odds for swell size building some. Swell to peak as period hits 20 secs on Fri (8/16) at 5 PM. Swell fading Sat 3 PM (8/17) as period drops to 18 secs. Swell fading as period hits 17 secs at 3 AM on Sun (8/18). Swell Direction: 199.7 degrees

Small New Zealand Gale
A gale started to develop just east of Central New Zealand on Mon AM (8/12) producing south winds at 30-35 kts with seas building. In the evening the gale was lifting north with south winds 35 kts with seas 23 ft over a small area at 40S 177W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (8/13) the gale was lifting northeast with south winds 35-40 kts with seas 25 ft at 37S 173.5W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds fading from 30-35 kts with seas briefly peaking at 27 ft at 33S 166.25W aimed northeast and fading fast. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

ENSO Neutral In Control
Forecast Suggests a Weak La Nina Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/12) 5 day average winds were moderately strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderately strong from the east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/13) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests the pattern building with east anomalies filling the KWGA reaching strong status starting 8/20 and building to very strong status 8/25 while tracking east through the end of the model run on 8/29 focused on the dateline. A significant Inactive MJO is in development stronger than what would be expected from a weak La Nina.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/12) Currently a modest Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was building over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive MJO (dry air) building on days 5, 10 and 15 of the model run reaching strong status on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Inactive MJO dissipating on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (8/13) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over West Africa and weak. It is to move somewhere between the Central Indian Ocean and the Central Maritime Continent 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it building to modest status on day 5 over the West Indian Ocean then fading to weak status over the West Maritime Continent 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/13) This model depicts a weak Active MJO Phase (wet air) over the KWGA with a modest Inactive Phase (dry air) over the far West KWGA. The Active MJO is to track east and be east of the KWGA 8/28 with the Inactive Phase (dry air) slowly tracking east over the KWGA and building through the end of the model run on 9/22 while starting to move east of the KWGA while a weak Active MJO (wet air) starts moving into the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/12) Today a modest Inactive Phase of the MJO was pushing through the west KWGA with moderate east anomalies mainly west of the dateline. The forecast has the Inactive MJO taking over solidly from now through 8/25 while pushing east over the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies in control. East anomalies are to persist filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/9. A new Active MJO is to be building just west of the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/13) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive MJO was building solidly over the KWGA with east anomalies over the bulk of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to track east through 9/4 with east anomalies continuing unchanged. An Active MJO starts pushing into the West KWGA 8/27 with west anomalies developing over the west KWGA and building to the east holding through the end of the model run on 11/10. West anomalies building to the east to about 170E by 9/5 stalling there and holding through the end of the model run. Weak west anomalies are to be holding from 170E and points west of there with east anomalies east of there from 9/5 and beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with a second contour developing 7/14 and both are to be holding from 135E and points west of there through the end of the model run unchanged. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 into 8/3 then collapsed to nothing. Is is to return filling the East Pacific 9/7 from 165E and points east of there through the end of the model run with a 2nd contour developing 10/16. This pattern is consistently being forecast by this model.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/13) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone today. The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 170W. The 28 deg isotherm line had moved east from 143W to 118W but retrograded west from 150W to 158W to now 162W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding west to 105W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 to +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degrees in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -6 degs was centered subsurface down 125m at 155W and trying to reach to the surface at 110W but this is questionable given the lack of sensors there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W filling while growing in coverage over the entire East Equatorial Pacific. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador east of 170W and -10 cms between 100-140W with an embedded core of -15 cms between 110-135W. This suggests a cooling trend is in play. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/6) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June but rebuilt in coverage mid-July with temps -0.5 to -1.5 degs from Ecuador to 167W and solidifying its position with a new core developing at -1.5-2.0 degs between 120-135W today. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5 degs were west of the dateline starting at 170W and have been since late May. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage in the west and cooler water dominating the equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/12) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was building on the equator from Ecuador west to 160W broadest from 110-140W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/12): A building stream of cooling waters were on the equator between 90W to 150W, building from days previous. The current La Nina pulse is gaining momentum.
Hi-res Overview: (8/12) A moderate stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 160W with the broadest coverage from 110W to 140W and larger in coverage than days past. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/13) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.779 after rising the previous 4 days bottoming out on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/13) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were fading at -0.359 after building to -0.190 after falling to about -0.55 degs on 7/31 and have generally been on a dropping trend since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were +0.0 (week of 8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June and +0.10 July.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.38 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July falling to -0.3 degs in mid-Aug.
Forecast (8/13) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late Aug and -1.55 degs in Nov-Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs late Aug and -0.95 in Sept then down to -1.20 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.229 degs today and is the 2nd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.383 in Aug (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.5213 in Oct then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.697 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.315 in Jan.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/12) the Daily Index was positive at 1.46 but was negative the previous 6 days, positive the 3 day before, negative the 7 days previous (due to extratropical low pressure just south of Tahiti). It was positive the previous 5 days and negative 11 days prior to that and positive 13 days previous.
The 30 day average was rising at -8.70. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -3.55. It has not been positive yet since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.12 April, -3.00 May, -3.16 in June and -2.97 July). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stably and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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