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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, August 11, 2018 2:13 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 1.4 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/13 thru Sun 8/19

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Two SHemi Swells Expected for SCal
Second One Strongest


On Saturday, August 11, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 4.24 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 15.8 secs from 179 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 9.1 secs from 159 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 6 kts. Water temperature 71.2 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.4 ft @ 9.1 secs from 188 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 8.9 secs from 177 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.7 ft @ 9.4 secs from 204 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.9 ft @ 8.6 secs from 191 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 10.4 secs from 181 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 57.9 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Saturday (8/9) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the knee to thigh high range and mushy and nearly chopped from south wind and unrideable. Protected breaks were thigh high and soft but fairly clean and barely rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high and clean and fogged in. In Southern California/Ventura surf was waist to stomach high and soft but clean and lined up when it came. In North Orange Co waves were waist high and clean coming form the south but soft and pretty swamped by tide early. South Orange Country's best breaks were getting occasional sets at shoulder to head high and clean but soft, inconsistent and not well focused. In North San Diego surf was chest high on the sets and clean but very soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting new southern hemi swell with set waves chest to head high and clean and lined up but slow. The East Shore was getting small east windswell at thigh to maybe waist high or so and chopped from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (8/11) new southern hemi swell was hitting Hawaii from another weak gale that developed in the deep Central Pacific lifting north Fri-Sun (8/4) producing 26-27 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell from that is also pushing northeast towards California. In Southern California the last bits of swell from Hurricane John were hitting making for some rideable surf. Another gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (8/9) with up to 32 ft seas briefly aimed north. That swell is pushing north towards California. But nothing else is to follow. Nothing real is forecast developing in the Northern Hemi yet either. And no windswell is on the charts until next weekend (8/18). And the tropics are to be quiet. So small southern hemi swell is the best option for the foreseeable future.


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Saturday AM (8/11) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific, including local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.

Windswell Forecast
California: On Saturday (8/11) high pressure at 1032 mbs was moving east into the Central Gulf of Alaska while low pressure was moving inland over British Columbia resulting in a generally slack winds pattern along the California coast offering no potential to develop meaningful windswell. But on Sun (8/12) low pressure is to move inland while the high pressure builds and moves into the Central Gulf at 1034 mbs while ridging east towards North CA generating a weak pressure gradient and a small fetch of north winds at 20-25 kts limited to the Cape Mendocino area with light winds from Bodega Bay southward. Pt Arena. Small windswell developing. On Monday (8/13) high pressure in the Gulf is to weaken and the gradient and associated fetch over Cape Mendocino is to fade with north winds 20 kts early and down to 15 kts mid-day with light winds south of there and windswell generation potential fading. Tuesday (8/14) even that fetch is to fade out with north winds 10 kts or less along the entire CA coast with no windswell generation projected. See QuikCAST's for details.

Hawaii: On Saturday (8/11) Hurricane Hector was well west of Hawaii and of no interest anymore. High pressure at 1034 mbs was in the Gulf of Alaska generating a broad fetch of easterly trades at 10-15 kts targeting Hawaii, but with not enough velocity to generate windswell. More of the same is forecast on Sunday (8/12) and even that is to slowly fade into Tuesday (8/14) as high pressure disintegrates north-northeast of the Islands. No real windswell production is expected. See QuikCAST's for details.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
Hurricane Hector: On Saturday (8/11) Hector was 750 nmiles west of Hawaii just 120 nmiles north of the Johnson Atoll tracking west at 15 kts with winds 105 kts/120 mph with seas estimated at 27 ft and of no concern to anyone other than commercial fishing and container ships. A slow turn to the north west is forecast with Hector moving over colder water and starting to dissipate a bit west of the dateline on Thurs (8/16). There's no indication of any potential for Hector to recurve northeast at this time.

Tropical Depression Kristy: On Sat (8/11) Kristy was tracking northwest with winds 30 kts positioned mid-day between Cabo and Hawaii and expected to fade not generating any swell of interest.

Tropical Storm Shanshan: The remnants of Tropical Storm Shanshan, which were 50 nmiles off North Japan on Thurs (8/9) with winds 45 kts, started racing east on Fri (9/10) and are expected to push over the Dateline Sat (9/11) with winds to 30 kts from the west. From there this low is to track northeast Sat PM (9/11) with winds building to 45 kts from the south moving over the Eastern Aleutians with seas 27 ft impacting them at 53N 162W and fetch then building from briefly from the west before impacting the Eastern Aleutians Sun AM (8/12) with seas aimed east at 26 ft at 54N 161W. This offers a slight chance for background swell development for the US West Coast but mainly focusing on Alaska.


California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (8/11) north winds were 10+ kts over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. Weak low pressure was moving inland over Washington and British Columbia holding high pressure at bay. Sunday (8/12) north winds to build to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino but 10-15 kts south of Pt Arena down into to Southern CA. By Mon (8/13) north winds to continue at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino but a light wind flow is forecast for the remainder of North CA down into Central and South CA. By Tues (8/14) a light flow (10 kts or less is forecast for all of North and Central CA. Light winds forecast for the entire state on Wed-Thurs (8/16). On Fri (8/17) north winds are to start building over Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena at 20-25 kts and pushing near 30 kts on Sat (8/18) but with a light flow south of there.

South Pacific

On Saturday AM (8/11) the southern branch of the jetstream was ridging south a bit southeast of New Zealand reaching down to 70S and over the Ross Ice Shelf sweeping east then forming a trough over the far Southeast Pacific being fed by 90 kt winds offering weak support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours starting Sun (8/12) the trough is to move east of the California swell window and fade in 24 hours and no longer of interest. To the west the ridge is to sweep east and moderate some but still holding control of the majority of the South Pacific through Tues (8/14) reaching down to 68S and effectively locking down the South Pacific and preventing gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (8/15) the same general pattern is to hold but with winds in the jet getting progressively weaker down to 70-80 kts on Fri (8/17) and displaced further south down to 75S under New Zealand and at 65S over the Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. And on Sat (8/18) more of the same is forecast but with a weak trough trying to set up in the far Southeast Pacific, but again with winds so weak (at 70 kts) offering no real support for gale development.

Surface Analysis  
On Saturday (8/11) swell from a gale previously in the deep Central South Pacific was pushing northeast (see Another Central South Pacific Gale). And another swell was pushing north from the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


Another Central South Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (8/3) another gale formed in the deep South Central Pacific tiny in size with 40-45 kt south winds aimed north starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 26 ft at 57S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch built in coverage but fading in velocity at 35 kts aimed north with seas 26-28 ft at 52S 152W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (8/4) fetch was fading in velocity at 35 kts but still decent in coverage from the south with seas 25 ft at 48S 156W aimed north. In the evening fetch faded in coverage still at 35 kts from the south lifting north with seas 24 ft at 44.5S 152W. The gael faded from there. Some degrees of limited swell could result for Hawaii and more so for California down into Central America. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Swell builds on Sat (8/11) 1.6 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/12) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Nothing after that. Swell Direction: 180 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/12) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds on Mon (8/13) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/14) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (8/15) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/12) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Mon (8/13) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/14) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that. Swell Direction: 200 degrees


Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific on Wednesday PM (8/8) with 45 kt south winds pushing well north producing 29 ft seas at 60S 122W. On Thurs AM (8/9) fetch is to fade from barely 40 kts over a tiny area and seas 32 ft at 54.5S 121W. The gale is to fade and move east of the Southern CA swell window and of no interest after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/16) near sunrise with period 18 secs and size tiny but building to 3.3 ft @ 17 secs later (5.0-5.5 ft). On Fri (8/17) swell building to 4.0 ft @ 16 secs (6.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/18) from 3.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180-182 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/16) mid-day with period 18 secs and size tiny but building to 2.6 ft @ 17 secs later (4.5 ft). On Fri (8/17) swell building to 3.2 ft @ 16 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (8/18) from 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 178-180 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. But the models are suggesting some sort of gale low developing 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with northwest winds 30-35 kts targeting the Islands and maybe the US West Coast. It's something to monitor for the next few days to see if it holds on the models.

Windswell Forecast
On Wednesday (8/15) high pressure in the Gulf is to be very weak generating no meaningful north winds nearshore to California and offering no fetch to produce windswell. On Thursday (8/16) a weak gradient is to try and set up over north Cape Mendocino with north winds 20 kts offering no real support for windswell development. But on Fri (8/17) the gradient is to build some with north winds to 25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with light winds south of there offering odds for minimal windswell production down into exposed breaks in Central CA. And the gradient is to hold if not build slightly in coverage on Sat (8/18) at 20-25 kts improving odds for windswell production.

Hawaii: On Wednesday (8/15) a slack pressure and winds pattern is forecast offering no support for windswell production and that pattern is to hold through Fri (8/17). By Sat (8/18) high pressure in the Eastern Gulf is to build some generating a pocket of 15 kt east winds just east of Hawaii offering a smidgen more support for windswell production, but not much.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Details to follow...


MJO/ENSO Forecast

SOI Falling Hard - ESPI Highest in 2 Years - Kelvin Wave #2 Building

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in July, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.

Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (8/10) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening starting south of Hawaii then turning weakly from the west over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate westerly starting south of Hawaii and building over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/11) moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA and forecast to hold through 8/16, then fading and neutral by the end of the model run on 8/18. In essence, a weak Westerly Wind Burst is occurring.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/10) A modest Active/Wet MJO signal was over the KWGA but with dry anomalies in the heart of the KWGA. The statistical model depicts that Active/Wet MJO signal is to steadily weaken and gone at day 4 with a neutral MJO signal indicated turning very weakly dry at the end of the model run (on day 15). The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but an Inactive/Dry Phase developing at the end of the model run. The models are mostly in sync in the short term.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/11) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was modest and stalled over the Western Pacific. It is to collapse starting Sun (8/11) then racing east moving to the Indian Ocean at the end of the model run 2 weeks out and very weak. The GEFS model depicts a variant of the same pattern.
40 day Upper Level Model: (8/11) This model depicts a Active/Wet MJO signal was over the Central-East Pacific and is to be easing east over Central America on 8/31. A modest Inactive/Dry pattern is to follow in the West Pacific starting 8/23 making slow east headway reaching Central America at the end of the model run on 9/20. At that time a neutral MJO pattern is to be developing over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/10) This model depicts moderate plus west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates those west anomalies to hold solid in the KWGA through 8/15 then fading some but still with weak to modest west anomalies holding in the KWGA then rebuilding 8/22 and refilling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/7. Basically non-stop west anomalies are on the charts for the next month.It certainly smells of El Nino.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/11) This model depicts the Active/Wet Phase of the MJO is well past it's peak over the KWGA with moderate west anomalies over the entirety of the KWGA. This weak Active MJO pattern is to fade through 8/17 with a weak Inactive MJO signal taking over 8/15-9/3 but with west anomalies fading from the moderate category to the weak category on 8/14 then holding over the KWGA. A pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO is to develop on 9/4 holding through 10/22 with solid west anomalies developing in the KWGA 9/5 building to Westerly Wind Burst status 9/20 holding through 10/22. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 10/23 through the end of the model run on 11/8 but with west anomalies holding, only weaker. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and built from 2 contour lines to 3 on 7/8 then building in coverage 7/24 and is now to build to 4 contour lines on 10/30 holding solid through the end of the model run. This means we are biased towards El Nino through the coming Fall season. The eastern edge of the Low Pressure bias is to ease east to 120W (over California) by 10/6. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking steadily and is to be gone by 9/22. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias and should fully reach that state on 8/8 or 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8), or at least that was our first guess. Based on current data, we're thinking more like 8/28 now. This pattern is more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/11) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs and migrating east now to 172E (8/11). The 28 deg isotherm line started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 to 153W on 7/10 and is now at 163W due to weakening of a Kelvin Wave under the West Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was 100 meters deep at 140W but retracting from the coast of Ecuador breaching the surface at 125W. Anomaly wise warm waters associated with the February Kelvin Wave are gone with barely neutral anomalies in the far East equatorial Pacific. To the west warm anomalies are building indicative of the new Kelvin Wave at +2 degs centered under the dateline down 150 meters and with a finger of +1.0 degs anomalies reaching east to 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 is a little more optimistic, with remnants of the first Kelvin Wave still holding in the East Pacific from 130W eastward building to +3.5 degs centered at 110W extending east to 105W but not reaching Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 110W-140W. The Second Kelvin Wave was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline at +2.5 degs reaching east to 140W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and broad in coverage to 160W at +5-10 cms indicative of a new Kelvin Wave (#2) building. East of there it weakened some with 5 cms anomalies continuing broad to 120W, but no further east, remnants of Kelvin Wave #1. There were no breaks over that entire area. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/10) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate mostly neutral anomalies were along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile. Isolated pockets of warm water were erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos west to 125W, then for more coherent west of there out to the dateline. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area north of the equator from Mexico out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/10): An elongated area with pockets of cooling were strung along the equator from Ecuador to 125W indicative of the end of Kelvin Wave #1's eruption coupled with an easterly wind burst over that area supporting cool upwelling. Temps were normal along the coasts of Chile and Peru. Cooling previously solid off Central West Africa presumably due to east winds and upwelling have dissipated. We're waiting for that to be mirrored off Ecuador.
Hi-res Overview: (8/10) An area of weak cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Of interest was mild warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 10S up to 20N, but with 2 pockets of cooler water at 110W and 125W. More coherent warming was on the equator from 140W to 140E. The remnant pocket of cool water from La Nina was limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 120-140W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/11) Today's temps were steady at -0.667 degs. That is up some but still lower than the big peak at +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.60 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/11) Today temps were down some at +0.237, down from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/11) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising in early Oct to +1.35 degs and to +1.60 degs in Nov then slowly fading through April 2019 down to +1.25 degs. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume depicts temps at +0.5 degs in July and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in Nov and holding there into Feb 2019. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/11): The daily index fell hard negative today at -30.89 and has been negative for the past week. The 30 day average was falling today to -1.25 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading/ the active Phase was building. The 90 day average was falling at -1.73. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (8/11) Today the index was rising solidly at -0.04 (after falling to -1.28 on 7/17). Today's reading beats the previous highest peak and the highest it had been in a year on 7/2 at -0.09. This suggest that perhaps El Nino is starting to get better coupled in the atmosphere. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.10, Mar -0.51, April -0.85, May -0.61, June -0.96. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 



External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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