Monday, August 10, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 8.2 secs from 162 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 6.3 secs from 42 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.7 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 17.0 secs from 216 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 2-6 kts. Water temperature 69.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.2 ft @ 10.4 secs from 311 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 17.4 secs from 195 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 17.4 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.1 secs from 183 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 11.5 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 10-14 kts. Water temp 54.0 degs (013), 59.9 degs (SF Bar) and 59.7 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Monday (8/10) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at shoulder to head high and lined up but pretty warbled and uneven with texture coming from the south and driven by local southerly wind. Protected breaks were chest to head high on the sets and clean and lined up and mostly closed out. At Santa Cruz tiny southern hemi swell was producing waves at occasionally thigh to maybe waist high and clean and lined up. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at thigh high and coming from the northwest with no local wind and clean conditions. Central Orange County was getting southern hemi swell with waves occasionally chest to shoulder high and lined up with clean conditions. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest to shoulder high and maybe head high on the peaks and clean but pretty soft and very inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at waist to maybe chest high and weak and mushed with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was near flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves maybe waist high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Monday (8/10) locally generated windswell was still pretty solid in North and Central CA at exposed breaks. Small southern hemi swell was hitting Southern CA originating from a small gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific on Sun (8/2) producing a broad area of 29-30 ft seas aimed northeast. There was no surf in Hawaii. A tiny gale developed south of New Zealand tracking northeast Sat (8/8) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And it's remnants redeveloped slightly under New Zealand on Sun (8/9) producing 33 ft seas aimed east. Maybe another weak system to develop in the same area Tues (8/11) producing up to 35 ft seas aimed east. So there's some little hope. And another gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand on Sat (8/15) producing 31 ft seas aimed northeast. But nothing serious is suggested.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Monday (8/10) no swell of interest was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Storm Elida was positioned 240 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas with winds 60 kts tracking northwest. Elida is to be at hurricane status in the evening with winds 70 kts tracking west-northwest and starting to move into the SCal swell window at 159 degrees. Elida is to be building to 80 kts Tues AM (8/12) and peaking 120 nmiles north of Clarion Island in the 166 degree track to SCal and 800 nmiles south of there. Perhaps some degree of limited southerly sideband swell could radiate north into Southern CA at sunset on Wed (8/13) assuming a 13 sec period.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday (8/10) the standard summertime pressure gradient was fading off Cape Mendocino with north winds 25-30 kts limited to off the coast of Cape Mendocino early and fading in velocity and coverage in the afternoon with windswell production potential fading some. An eddy flow is forecast for all waters south of Cape Mendocino. On Tues (8/11) remnants of the gradient are to be holding over Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 20 to barely 25 kts early with light winds if not a light eddy flow from Pt Arena southward producing modest sized windswell pushing south but the gradient and winds fading to 15 kts in the afternoon. On Wed (8/12) the gradient is to be gone with northwest winds 15-20 kts tucked up along the coast of Pt Arena early with light winds nearshore south of there producing some bare minimal short period windswell. Northwest winds to build over Central CA waters in the afternoon at 15-20 kts. On Thurs (8/13) northwest winds are forecast at 20+ kts over all of North CA waters early building to 25 kts over Cape Mendocino later with increasing windswell expected. Central CA to see north winds at 10 kts early building to 15 kts later. Fri (8/14) the usual summertime gradient is forecast rejuvenating for North CA producing north winds at 25-30 kts mainly off Cape Mendocino with nearshore winds north at 10 kts early and holding all day. On Sat (8/15) north winds to be 25-30 kts off Cape Mendocino early with a light eddy flow (south winds) from Pt Arena southward. On Sun (8/16) the gradient is to dissipate with a light northwest flow at 5-10 kts along the North and Central Coast. No windswell production forecast. On Mon (8/17) a light northwesterly flow at 10 kts is forecast for North CA building to 15 kts early down into Central CA.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 14,000 ft or higher for the week.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Monday (8/10) the jetstream was well split over the width of the South Pacific with the southern branch lifting gently northeast under New Zealand being fed by 160 kt winds forming a broad trough and offering some support for gale development there. But east of there the jet was falling gently southeast falling down to 64S and over Antarctic Ice from 150W and points east of there offering no support. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to hold southeast of New Zealand being fed by 140 kt winds into early Wed (8/12) continuing to offer some modest support for gale development before weakening on Wed (8/12) but not out. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (8/13) another weak trough is to start building under New Zealand getting better defined on Fri (8/14) being fed by 120 kts winds offering some support for low pressure development then fading on Sat (8/15). Beyond a far weaker pattern is to set up and a ridge is to eventually start setting up under New Zealand on Mon (8/17) shutting any support for gale development down. A ridge is to be pushing south over the Southeast Pacific from Wed (8/12) and beyond.
On Monday (8/10) small swell from a gale that built in the far Southeast Pacific was starting to hit California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And tiny swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is pushing north (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale developed from the Weak New Zealand Gale (see below) on Sun PM (8/9) southeast of New Zealand producing 40 kt west-southwest winds with seas 33 ft at 58.5S 173W aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM (8/10) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft over a tiny area at 58.5S 170W aimed mostly east. This system is to be gone after that. Low odds of any swell resulting.
On Tues AM (8/11) a decent sized fetch of 4045 kt west winds is to build just southeast of New Zealand with seas building to 30 ft at 51.5S 176W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to build to 45-50 kts from the west with seas 37 ft at 52S 160W aimed east but with the fetch starting to fall southeast. On Wed AM (8/12) Fetch is to build to 55+ kts from the west but falling southeast with seas building to 47 ft at 59S 142W aimed southeast and falling southeast likely having no swell radiating to the northeast. More of the same is forecast in the evening with the fetch and seas crashing into Antarctica offering nothing in terms of swell production radiating into the Northern Hemisphere. But the first day or so of this system has some hope.
Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (8/1) producing a broad fetch of 35-40 kt southwest winds with seas building. On Sun AM (8/2) the fetch was lifting northeast at 35-40 kts producing 30 ft seas at 53.5S 130.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest while starting to move east and out of the California swell window with seas holding at 29 ft at 49S 127W aimed northeast and fading. Fetch was gone after that. Decent odds of some 15-16 secs period swell resulting radiating north towards California.
Southern CA: Swell building on Mon (8/10) and peaking late afternoon at 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (8/11) at 2.7 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (8/12) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs AM (8/13) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft).Swell Direction: 184 degrees
North CA: Swell building on Mon (8/10) and peaking late afternoon at 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft). Swell holding on Tues (8/11) at 3.0 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (8/12) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs AM (8/13) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees
Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale started building in the far Southwest Pacific south of Tasmania on Fri PM (8/7) pushing east with 35-40 kt west winds over a small area and seas building. On Sat AM (8/8) southwest winds were 40-45 kts over a small area south of New Zealand with seas 30 ft over a modest area at 56S 162E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was fading with southwest winds 35-40 kts over a modest sized area aimed northeast with seas 32 ft at 53S 176E aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (8/9) fetch was fading and sinking south from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 53S 175W aimed east. Low odds of any swell resulting for Hawaii or the US mainland.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/16) building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (8/17) at 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours starting Fri AM (8/14) a small gale is to form southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast producing a broad area of 40-45 kt southwest winds producing up to 30 ft seas aimed northeast at 59S 172E. In the evening southwest winds to be 35-40 kts lifting northeast producing 34 ft seas at 57S 179W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading Sat AM (8/15) producing a modest sized area of 30-35 kts southwest winds with seas fading from 30 ft at 54S 170W aimed northeast. This system is to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.
Cool Sea Surface Temps Continue Building in Central Equatorial Pacific
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/9) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA. Anomalies were light easterly over the East equatorial holding modest easterly over the Central Pacific and building to strong status over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening currently).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/10) moderate east anomalies were in control of the KWGA today but with east anomalies retreating some over the far East equatorial Pacific to a point south of California. The forecast calls for east anomalies slowly giving up ground and velocity in the KWGA over the coming week and effectively gone by 8/15 with neutral Anomalies in the far West KWGA. At the end of the model run on 8/17 west anomalies are to be modest strength over the dateline and east of there to Ecuador but with neutral anomalies in the KWGA. Support for energy transfer into the jet is to improve some as the week progresses.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (8/9) A building Active Phase of the MJO was developing over the West KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this Active Pattern is to peak in the KWGA on day 5 of the model filling it and then weakening slightly on day 10 then almost gone on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially and is corrupt after that.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the East Maritime Continent today and is to slowly ease east while steadily weakening to weak status over the West Pacific 15 days out. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to collapse to weak strength in one day while pushing faster east through the Pacific and into the Central Atlantic by day 15 of the model run and building to very strong status at that time. If that were to occur potential for tropical development in the Atlantic would increase.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/9) This model depicts a modest Inactive MJO exiting east over Central America today. A modest but incoherent Active MJO is forecast developing over the KWGA on 8/14 pushing over the Central Pacific and into the East Pacific reaching Central America at the end of the model run on 9/18. At that time a developing modest Inactive MJO is forecast moving east over the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/9) This model depicts an organized Active MJO over the KWGA today but with east anomalies filling the KWGA at moderate strength driven by an equatorial Rossby Wave. The forecast indicates a continuation of the Active MJO with east anomalies filling the KWGA through 8/13 then fading and turning modest westerly in the KWGA and holding until the Active MJO moves east of the KWGA on 8/21. At that time modest east anomalies are to start rebuilding over the entirety of the KWGA with an Inactive MJO moving over there starting 9/1 and both holding through the end of the model run on 9/6. Overall a long run of easterly anomalies are setting up in the KWGA. August will be a tough month for swell production theoretically.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/10 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active MJO over the KWGA today with patches of modest west anomalies trying to develop as the MJO moves east through the KWGA through 8/25 though mostly east anomalies in the heart of the KWGA. A stronger Inactive Phase is forecast traversing the Pacific 8/23-9/18 with another bout of east anomalies firmly controlling the KWGA and filling the whole equatorial Pacific and strong over the East Pacific. A strong Active Phase of the MJO is forecast 9/10 through 10/16 with solid west anomalies filling the KWGA, but with east anomalies over the East Pacific. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific 10/5 and traveling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/6 but with patches of west anomalies over the bulk of the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the dateline today reaching east to a point south of California and is to steadily build in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 9/3 on the dateline with the high pressure bias filling the equatorial Pacific by the end of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is appearing weakly over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run and even easing into the far West KWGA at the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are almost complete migrating east into the West Pacific today and are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 8/16 and building while filling in over that entire area into about mid-Oct. After that the outlook is perhaps more favorable.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was steady at 168E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 167W today. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 118W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were in one pocket in the far West Pacific reaching east to 169W with another pocket at +1 deg between 100W to 130W. A river of generally cooler temps were tracking west to east down at 150m traversing the width of the equatorial Pacific. Embedded in that was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs located between 120W-175W today and bubbling up to the surface near and around 150W. It appears a conveyor belt of cool water (Cold water Kelvin Waves) was in effect. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/1 indicates the same thing with a cool water bubble at depth in the far east erupting to the surface between 95W to 80W. Another larger subsurface cool bubble was in-flight to the east between 120W to 180W and reaching the surface near 150W. A thin wall of warm water was between the 2 cool bubbles. Yet a third cool bubble was building in the far west at 140E. In effect a river of cool water was at depth under the entirety of the equatorial Pacific 150m tracking east. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were showing signs of building over the Central equatorial Pacific near 140W. Interestingly cool anomalies were dissolving along Ecuador and down into Peru. Cool anomalies at -5 cms were along Chile and up into Mexico and Baja. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except west of 160E.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/9) The latest images indicate cold water was holding along Peru tracking northwest building over and off Ecuador tracking west on the equator weakening some west of the Galapagos then rebuilding at 130W and solid out to the dateline looking like the standard La Nina signature. The stream was steady today. Cool anomalies were along the coast of Chile up into Peru appearing to be feeding the cool stream. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/9): A stream of cooling has developed, strong along Ecuador then slowly fading from there to the dateline along the equator. A cooling trend appears to be building over the equatorial Central Pacific. There were some small pockets of warming interspersed. The short term trend is looking like development of a large scale cooling trend.
Hi-res Overview: (8/9) A stream of cool water is entrenched along the coast of Peru lifting northwest to the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and building over the entire region. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator out to the dateline. Overall the data suggests a building La Nina like pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/10) Today's temps were falling slightly a new daily low of recent at -2.090, after being previously down to -1.970 on 7/17. Temps have been dropping steadily since March 26. Overall the trend is towards cooling after having previously been in a warmer range at +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/10) Temps were falling steadily today at -0.463 after being neutral the past 4 weeks 6/27-7/25. Previously temps were rising the last previous 3 weeks after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend was warming but now appears to be in a decline.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/10) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range early this year through March, then started falling down to -0.20 in late-May before stabilized there through late June. The forecast depicts temps were supposed to be precipitously falling on July 1, down to -0.50 in late July, continuing down reaching -1.00 in late Sept dropping to -1.05 Oct 1 and holding through mid Dec, then starting to rebound reaching neutral on April 1. According to this model sea surface temps should have been falling strongly starting July 1 moving towards La Nina as Summer progressed. But in reality temps didn't start falling in Nino 3.4 until 8/1. For the model to verify, in October some dramatic cooling is going to have to happen soon. Given this situation, we think the dynamic models might be overstating the magnitude of the coming cooling trend for the equatorial Pacific.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.42 degs, and are to fall into Oct to -0.55 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.35 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by March. The low outlier is a dynamic models (NASA GMAO). But a good plethora of models are now suggesting a developing solid La Nina. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/10): The daily index was positive today at 13.47. The 30 day average was steady at +4.49. The 90 day average was rising to 0.04, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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