Tuesday, August 9, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 8.0 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 7.7 secs from 163 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.8 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.7 secs from 35 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 5.9 secs from 274 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 64.4 degs, 70.2 (Topanga 103), 62.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 67.5 (Del Mar 153), 72.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.8 ft @ 5.8 secs from 308 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.1 secs from 194 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.4 secs from 179 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 6.5 secs from 283 degrees. Water temp 72.5 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 12.9 secs from 196 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temp 61.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.0 (Pt Reyes 46013), 60.8 (46026), 60.8 (SF Bar 142), 61.0 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (8/9) North and Central CA had set waves at maybe knee high and warbled from northwest wind and not rideable. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and ruffled from modest northwest wind. Central Orange County had sets at knee to maybe thigh high and clean and weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had northwest windswell at thigh high and clean and soft. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and soft but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some thigh high sets and clean but soft. The East Shore had windswell with waves waist high or a little more and nearly chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (8/9) no swell was hitting California or Hawaii. A small gale developed over the Central South Pacific tracking east Wed-Thurs (8/4) producing 34 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast and continued over the Southeast Pacific Fri (8/5) with 26 ft seas aimed north. Small weak swell is propagating northeast. And a gale is forecast southeast of New Zealand Sat-Sun (8/14) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (8/9) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
On Mon AM (8/8) Tropical Storm Howard was developing 240 nmiles southwest of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 55 kts tracking northwest and moving into the Southern CA swell window. By late morning winds were upgraded to hurricane status at 70 kts with seas estimated at 27 ft positioned 800 nmiles south-southeast of Dana Point CA on the 165 degree path. On Tues AM (8/9) winds were 75 kts but Howard was taking a more west-northwest track 700 nmiles south of Dana Point on the 172 degree great circle path. At best very limited swell is propagating north. Howard is to turn even more westerly through the day and fall to tropical storm status early Wed (8/10). At best minimal windswell is to be propagating north.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (8/10) building to 1.8 ft @ 11 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/11) from 1.5 ft @ 9 secs (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 165-172 degrees
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (8/10) low pressure is to move over Cape Mendocino while dissolving with northwest winds 5 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon but with northwest winds building to near 15 kts for Morro Bay southward.
- Thurs (8/11) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 15 kts solid for all of North and Central CA and even to 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. No real windswell forecast.
- Fri (8/12) northwest winds are forecast holding at 15+ kts for all of North and Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. Short period windchop building.
- Sat (8/13) no change is forecast with northwest winds 15-20 kts for all North and Central CA early. In the afternoon solid 20 kts northwest winds are forecast for all of North and Central CA. Windswell developing.
- Sun (8/14) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for all of North and Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon if not building to near 25 kts in places. Windswell on the increase.
- Mon (8/15) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Windswell continues.
- Tues (8/16) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Tuesday (8/9) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was tracking west to east in a zonal flow across the South Pacific on the 57S latitude line producing no troughs and offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the zonal flow is to continue falling south slightly down to the 60S latitude line again offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting late Fri (8/12) a trough is forecast starting to develop south of New Zealand being fed by 130 kts winds lifting northeast to 54S building to 150 kts on Sat (8/13) offering decent support for gale development before weakening over the Central South Pacific late Mon (8/15). Beyond a ridge is forecast building behind pushing south into Antarctica late Mon (8/15) under New Zealand and sweeping east eliminating support for gale development.
No swell is in the water or forecast to arrive in the next 72 hours.
Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand is propagating northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Central South Pacific Gale
On Wed AM (8/3) a tiny gale developed just southwest of New Zealand with 50 kt southwest winds and seas building to 28 ft over a tiny area at 53.5S 179E aimed northeast. Fetch tracked east-northeast in the evening at 45-50 kts over a tiny area aimed more northeast with seas 34 ft seas at 50.75S 169W aimed northeast but only over a tiny area. On Thurs AM (8/4) south winds were at 45 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft at 49S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading in size but from 40-45 kts over the northern reaches of the Southeast Pacific aimed well north with seas 29 ft at 47.25S 147W. On Fri AM (8/5) fetch was holding at 35-40 kts over a decent sized area aimed due north with seas 27 ft at 44S 140.75W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 35 kts aimed north over the Southeast Pacific with 28 ft seas at 47S 133.25W aimed north. On Sat (8/6) fetch was dissipating from 30 kts aimed north with seas 25 ft at 44.25S 126W aimed north-northeast. The gale is to be gone after that.
Some odds of swell is to result mainly focused on California and points south of there. .
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (8/10) building to 0.8 ft @ 17 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/11) from 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft). Nothing left after that. Swell Direction 175-180 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/12) building to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (8/13) to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/12) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (8/13) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft) and 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (8/14) from 1.9 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (8/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 194 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. But a weak early season low pressure system is modeled developing the the Gulf of Alaska Mon-Tues (8/16) with west winds to 25 kts targeting the Pacific Northwest. Maybe some windswell to result with a lot of luck.
Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Sat PM (8/13) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 58S 174E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/14) southwest winds to be 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 56.5S 177W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts from the southwest lifting northeast with seas 33 ft at 53S 169W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/15) the gale is to be fading with 35 kt southwest winds and seas from previous fetch fading from 29 ft at 52S 158W aimed northeast. Something to monitor but it's still a bit early to believe this yet.
Upwelling Phase Beginning
Models Suggesting this to be the Final La Nina Surge
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but was discharged by late July. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected weakly returning in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading in Winter. Overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/8) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/9) Moderate east anomalies were over the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies continuing at modest to moderate strength over the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 8/16.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/8) No MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO signal is to hold over the KWGA through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests a weak Inactive signal developing on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The 2 models are a bit in conflict.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/9) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over West Pacific and is to more or less stay stationary there through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase racing east and over Africa or the far West Indian Ocean on day 15 of the model run and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/9) A modest Active MJO signal (wet air) was trying to push east into the West Pacific/KWGA. The forecast depicts the Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to be pushing east mostly north of the KWGA through 9/3 then tracking east over the Central Pacific and north of Ecuador on 9/8. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA starting 9/8 but again mostly north of it then building over the Central Equatorial Pacific 9/13 and filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/8) A weak Active MJO was over the KWGA today but with mostly modest east anomalies over the KWGA. Looking forward the Active Phase is forecast traversing the KWGA through 8/18 but with mostly weak east anomalies trying to hold over the KWGA except for on pocket of westerly anomalies at 150E around 8/15. East anomalies are to start building in earnest on 8/17 with the Inactive Phase of the MJO traversing the KWGA 8/22 through the end of the model run on 9/5. East anomalies are to build to near strong status during that window.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/9) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was all but gone over the KWGA with light east and west anomalies filling the KWGA. And a weak pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO was building over the west KWGA traversing it through 8/23 with weak west anomalies building in pockets over the KWGA. A stronger pulse of the Inactive Phase is to set up in the KWGA 8/22-9/14 with east anomalies retaking control of the KWGA and strong just east of the dateline the last 7 days of that window. On 9/3 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start building pushing through the KWGA through 10/28 with west anomalies strong over the Maritime Continent reaching east to about 150E on 9/10 then pushing east while weakening with west and neutral anomalies filling the KWGA from 10/23 and beyond. East anomalies are to slowly giving way and dissolve over the vast majority of the equatorial Pacific by 10/28. This is an interesting development. It seems east anomalies are to become less locked and strong even over the dateline as we get deeper into October. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow trying to move into the KWGA on 10/25 but insignificant holding through the end of the model run on 11/6. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/21 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at 9/10 then possibly starting to east east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 135E today filling 10% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 125E on 9/10 then starting to east east slightly at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/10. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) and are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA into early Oct, then fading.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 180E. The 26 degree isotherm was building east to 142W after backtracking to 159W from 148W and previously from 142W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific but pretty shallow in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 158W, A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 125W and filling the area from 153W to 105W at depth. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +1 degs in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 126W and slowly losing coverage while pushing east and erupting to the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/1 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 170W and far warmer. A cool pocket was between 110W to 165W and reaching the surface. The faint fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were fading fast between 100-90W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/1) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline reaching east to only 165E. A building pocket of negative anomalies were developing at -15 cms between 105W to 175W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the Kelvin Wave was gone. Cool anomalies were positioned between 115W to 170W but no longer expanding coverage. A tiny area of cool anomalies were just along Ecuador but almost warming at 100W. A cool cycle is underway.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/8) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest waters were on the equator west of 140W but were also now developing in the east reaching to 105 in pockets. An area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 110W and in pockets west of there. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/8): Pockets of cooling and warming water were on the equator between Ecuador 160W. Neither cooling nor warming had the upper hand.
Hi-res Overview: (8/8) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 140W to 170E on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 110W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. Previous equatorial warming between 110W to 140W was breaking up if not almost gone. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific and the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be rebuilding with warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave breaking up over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/9) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.862 after dipping on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/9) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps continued trending down and were at -0.657 and in La Nina territory (falling into it starting 7/27). Temps have been falling since 7/15 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs.
Forecast (8/9) - Temps are to fall steadily in Aug to -1.00 degs then generally holding there falling in Nov to -1.1 degs, then starting a quick rise and reaching above the La Nina threshold in Jan 2023 and up to +0.20 degs in April. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -0.80 in Aug and holding near -0.75 degs till Oct, falling mid-Nov to -0.90 degs, then starting an upward progression rising above La Nina threshold in Jan and rising from there forward to +0.10 degs in April. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through summer into Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec near neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific and cool waters totally gone in Jan. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from October and points beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (8/6) the daily index was falling some at -0.67. Previous peaks were at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive but starting in July weakness is starting to take hold. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +10.03 today after falling to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling rising some at +13.60 after falling to +13.49 (7/27) and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table