Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 4.1 ft @ 14.8 secs from 183 degrees. Water temp 81.5 (Barbers Pt), 81.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 10.2 secs from 249 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.8 secs from 267 degrees. Wind east 8-10 kts. Water temperature 67.3 degs, 55.0 (Harvest 071), 69.6 (Topanga 103), 66.2 (Long Beach 215), 69.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 68.4 (Del Mar 153), 69.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.7 ft @ 6.4 secs from 316 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.7 ft @ 6.5 secs from 267 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.7 secs from 202 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 195 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.8 secs from 202 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.7 secs from 199 degrees. Water temperature 68.5 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Buoy 029 Down - Using 157. Seas were 3.6 ft @ 13.3 secs with southern hemi swell 1.7 ft @ 13.7 secs from 215 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), W 2-4 kts San Francisco (46026), Buoy Down (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNW 2 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NA degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.5 (San Francisco 46026), 59.0 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 54.0 (Monterey Bay 46092) and NA (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (8/5) in North and Central CA surf was knee to thigh high and weakly lined up and mushed and warbled from light northwest wind. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and mushed and weak and clean with some intermixed northwest warble. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the sets and clean and weakly lined up and short and soft. In Ventura County waves were thigh to waist high and somewhat lined up and clean but pretty soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and reasonably lined up with decent form and clean but with some warble coming from the south with light south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder to head high ont he peak and lined up with decent form and clean but pretty soft. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and reasonably lined and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore was totally flat and clean. The South Shore had real sets at 3-4 ft overhead and super lined up with good form and clean and reasonably powerful. The East Shore was getting hurricane swell with waves waist to chest high and lined up and lightly chopped from east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (8/5) California was seeing fading remnant swell energy from a gale that developed over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific on Thurs (7/24) lifting due north into Sat (7/26) with 35-37 ft seas aimed well north. Hawaii was seeing better than expected swell from a third system that developed over the Central South Pacific Mon-Tues (7/29) with 26 ft seas aimed due north. Of more interest is a gale developed under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (7/31) with 37-40 ft seas aimed east. And additional nondescript seas continued in that area into Sun (8/3) in the 26-28 ft range aimed east. Another gale developed over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific on Sun-Mon (8/4) producing 28-30 ft seas again aimed well north targeting primarily Hawaii. And perhaps another system is to develop south of New Zealand on Fri-Sat (8/9) with 28-30 ft seas aimed northeast with secondary energy again forecast building east and northeast of New Zealand Sat-Sun (8/10) with 28-30 ft seas aimed northeast. A nice modest pattern is setting up.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/5) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Gil formed 700 nmiles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas on Thurs (7/31) lifting northwest reaching minimal hurricane status early Fri (8/1) 900 nmiles south and almost east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 24 ft at roughly 16N 120W. Minimal sideband windswell from Gil was hitting Southern CA on Sun AM (8/3) with period 13 secs.

On Sun AM (8/3) the remnants of Gil were positioned 1400 nmiles due east of the Big Island of Hawaii with winds 45 kts and considered a post-tropical storm. Gil is forecast to dissipate from a swell production standpoint through the day Sunday with winds fading to 30 kts while tracking northwest .Low odds for small windswell along east fading shores of the Hawaiian Islands.

Big Island: Expect swell arrival on Tues (8/5) at 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft) from 85 degrees. Swell building some on Wed (8/6) to 4.1 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.0 ft) mid-day from 70 degrees. Windswell fading on Thurs (8/7) from 3.4 ft @ 8-9 secs (3.0 ft) from 65 degrees.

Tropical Storm Henriette was developing on Tues AM (8/5) 1100 nmiles south-southwest of Pt Conception tracking west-northwest with winds 45 kts. No swell potential is forecast relative to California from this system. Hentiette is to continue on a west-northwest track with no additional strengthening forecast moving to with in 900 nmiles east of the Big Island on Fri (8/8) with winds fading from 40 kts and down to tropical depression status (35 kts) on Sat (8/9) while tracking more to the northwest. Perhaps some minimal windswell at best to result later Sun (8/10). Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (8/6) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for all of Central CA early . In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding.
Thurs AM (8/7) northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA. Northwest windswell building some.
Fri AM (8/8) the standard summertime pressure gradient sets up with northwest winds 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts for the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts nearshore for Central CA early. No real change in the afternoon but with northwest winds fading for Central CA to 10 kts. Northwest windswell holding.
Sat AM (8/9) northwest winds to be 25 kts a bit off Cape Mendocino but south 5 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Windswell holding.
Sun AM (8/10) northwest winds to be 20-30 kts just off Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient starts fading off Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 20 kts off the coast and south winds 5 kts for all of North and Central CA. Windswell fading later.
Mon AM (8/11) a weak pressure and wind pattern takes hold with local and outer water winds south 5 kts for North and Central CA early. no real change in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Tues AM (8/12) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts early for North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 55-60 degrees holding through Fri (8/8) then 60-65 degrees steady through the end of the model run on Tues (8/12).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (8/5) remnant cutoff trough energy was fading east of North New Zealand no longer supporting meaningful gale formation. Otherwise the jet was well split with the important southern branch southward displaced running east on the 70S latitude line over Antarctic Ice with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours no real changes is forecast. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (8/8) a solid trough is forecast developing south of New Zealand lifting hard north being fed by 130 kts winds supporting gale formation tracking northeast into Sat (8/9) before the jet starts losing energy and no longer supporting gale formation on Sun (8/10). East of there the jet is to be running due east on the 63S latitude line and over the edge of Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale formation. Perhaps another weak trough is to develop over the Central South Pacific on Mon (8/11) lifting decently north being fed by 120 kts winds offering some support for gale formation before collapsing on Tues (8/12).

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/5) swell from a Central South Pacific Gale was fading out in California (see Broader Central South Pacific Gale below). A swell was peaking in Hawaii larger than forecast originating from another gale that developed over the Southeast Pacific and that swell is tracking towards California (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). A gale formed under New Zealand producing swell radiating northeast towards HI and CA (see New Zealand Complex Gale below). Additional fetch under Tasmania and the South Central Pacific are to provide overlapping swells intermixing with swell from the New Zealand Complex Gale (see Additional New Zealand Complex Components below).

Broader Central South Pacific Gale
A gale started developing southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/24) with 50-55 kt south winds and seas 33 ft over a small area at 55.75S 179.5E starting to lift northeast. In the evening the storm was tracking east-northeast with 50-55 kt south winds building over a reasonable sized area and seas building from 34 ft at 52.5S 169.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (7/25) south winds built in coverage at 45 kts lifting north with seas 37 ft at 48.25S 165W aimed north. In the evening the gale was fading while lifting north targeting Hawaii well with a solid area of 40 kt south winds and seas 33 ft at 44.25S 163.25W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (7/26) south winds were dissipating from 35+ kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 41.25S 166.25W aimed north. In the evening south winds held at 35 kts lifting north with seas fading from 25 ft at 34.5S 163W aimed north. On Sun AM (7/27) no fetch or seas of interest remained. Swell is tracking north towards primarily Hawaii.

Southern CA: Swell fading Tues (8/5) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Wed (8/6) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees moving to 207 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Tues (8/5) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Wed (8/6) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees moving to 207 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (7/28) a small gale started developing in the deep Central South Pacific with south winds 35-40 kts over a broad area aimed north with seas building. In the evening south winds were 35-40 kts over a solid area with seas 25 ft at 50.5S 151.25W aimed north. Fetch held Tues AM (7/29) at 35 kts over a solid area aimed north and northeast with seas 25-26 ft at 45S 150W aimed north and northeast. In the evening south winds were fading at 30-35 kts over a shrinking area positioned well north and aimed north with seas 23-24 ft over a fragmented area at 38S 152W aimed north. Fetch started fading Wed AM (7/30) while lifting north from 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft up at 35S 134W aimed north. Fetch was gone in the evening. The extreme northward push of this system should minimize swell decay targeting a swath from Hawaii to California.

Oahu: Swell peaks on Tues (8/5) at 2.6 ft @ 14 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (8/6) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (8/7) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 175 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (8/5) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Wed (8/6) to 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell builds more on Thurs (8/7) to 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft) in the afternoon. Swell fading Fri (8/8) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (8/6) building to to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell builds more on Thurs (8/7) to 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft) in the afternoon. Swell fading Fri (8/8) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (8/9) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

New Zealand Complex Gale
On Wed PM (7/30) a storm was tracking east under New Zealand with 50 kts southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 57.25S 157.75E aimed northeast briefly building to 40 ft in the evening. On Thurs AM (7/31) the storm was fading to gale status under New Zealand with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 57.25S 168E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts over a large area with 40 kt west winds in one area and seas 31 ft at 55S 180W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (8/1) fetch was fading from the west at 30-35 kts and seas fading from 29 ft at 55S 168W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated after that.

Note: There is some uncertainty and likely the swell heights forecast below are a bit on the high side given the overlapping nature of multiple swell trains hitting simultaneously, all generated by a series of systems that have passed under New Zealand or developed east of there. Do not take the high swell numbers as gospel. 2 or more longer period swell trains do not magically add together to produce one large swell as is likely the case of what the model thinks is going to happen to produce these high numbers. It's a figment of the models imagination.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/7) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds on Fri (8/8) to 2.7 ft @ 16 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (8/9) at 3.7 ft @ 15-16 secs later (5.5-6.0 ft). Swell fading slowly on Sun (8/10) from 3.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5 ft) early. Swell fading on Mon (8/11) from 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (8/12) fading from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/13) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 moving to 189 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (8/9) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Sun (8/10) to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell builds more on Mon (8/11) reaching 2.3 ft @ 16 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). On Tues (8/12) swell peaks at 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft) mid-day. Swell fades some on Wed (8/13) from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). On Thurs (8/14) swell fades from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/15) 2.0 ft @ 14 secs mid-AM (3.0 ft). Swell fades on Sat (8/16) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees moving to 205 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (8/9) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Sun (8/10) to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell builds more on Mon (8/11) reaching 2.6 ft @ 16 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). On Tues (8/12) swell peaks at 3.1 ft @ 16 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fades some on Wed (8/13) from 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). On Thurs (8/14) swell fades from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/15) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fades on Sat (8/16) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 218 degrees moving to 206 degrees

Additional New Zealand Complex Swell Components
Part #1 Tasmania Storm - On Thurs PM (7/31) another small storm developed south of Tasmania with 55 kt west winds and seas 45 ft at 57.25S 141.5e aimed east. On Fri AM (8/1) fetch was fading fast from 45 kts and seas 41 ft at 54.25S 152.25E aimed east. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 53S 165E aimed east and partially impacting Auckland Island. residuals fetch was fading Sat Am (8/2) from 35-40 kts from the west and seas fading from 27 ft aimed southeast at 60S 153W impacting Antarctic Ice.

Swell from this system is to become embedded or to extend the life of the New Zealand Complex Gale swell forecast above. California: Swell Direction 220 degrees. Swell arrival with period 20 secs on Sun (8/10) near 5 PM dropping to 17 secs 5 AM Tues (8/12). Hawaii: all this swell will be coming up the Tasman Sea great circle path at 208 degs and well filtered by Fiji and likely not significant in size.

Part #2 - South Central Pacific Gale (another potential component of the upcoming New Zealand Complex Gale swell)
On Sat PM (8/2) yet another gale developed on the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with 35-40 kts south winds east of New Zealand and seas building from 25 ft at 33S 163W aimed north. On Sun AM south winds were 40-45 kts stationary and seas 29 ft at 41S 159W aimed due north at Hawaii with sideband energy at California. In the evening south winds held at 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 38.75S 159.5W aimed north. On Mon AM (8/4) south winds were fading from 35-40 kts solid with seas 28 ft at 39S 158.25W aimed north. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 43.5S 155W aimed north.

This system to provide a significant component of swell energy traveling towards Hawaii and again part of the New Zealand Complex Gale swell above. Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Sat 2 AM (8/9) with period 17 secs from 181 degs. California: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (8/11) at sunrise with period 17 secs from 208 degs.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs PM (8/7) yet another gale is forecast developing under New Zealand with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 58S 163.75E aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (8/8) 35-40 kt southwest winds are to be lifting northeast from under New Zealand with seas building to 27 ft at 59.5S 172.25E aimed northeast. Fetch to be fading in the evening from 35-40 kts while lifting northeast with seas 29-30 ft at 56.25S 175.25E aimed northeast. And secondary energy is to be building just east of the north tip of New Zealand producing south winds at 40 kts over a tiny area. On Sat AM (8/9) the north most fetch to take over with 40-45 kts south winds off the north tip of New Zealand and seas 24 ft over a tiny area. In the evening fetch is to build in size with 45-50 kt south winds aimed well north and seas building to 26 ft over a modest area at 37S 168.5W aimed northeast. Fetch to ease east Sun AM (8/10) still from the south at 40 kts and increasing in coverage with seas 32 ft at 35S 162W aimed northeast. 35-40 kts south winds hold in the evening with seas 29 ft at 38.25S 164.25W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/11) southwest winds to be fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 35S 160W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

La Nina Trying to Return - PDO Coldest In Recorded History
Cool Water Erupting in NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast reaching 150E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But the recent emergence of the cool pool in late July and now a very negative PDO suggests La Nina is returning.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/4) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and very weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/5) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. Modest to moderate east anomalies are to continue holding filling the entirety of the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/21 and showing signs of slowly tracking east and building after 8/15. Nino meaningful west anomalies are forecast for the KWGA. This is not as hoped for and is a big downgrade. .

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/4) Currently a modest Inactive MJO (dry air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive Phase continuing on day 5 of the model run fading to weak status on day 10 and neutral on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive Phase (dry air) holding unchanged into day 5 of the model run then a little weaker on day 10 but holding still on day 15 of the model run. This is a big downgrade and along with the GFS model suggests a far stronger Inactive MJO pattern is taking hold.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (8/5) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over Africa today. The statistic model has it collapsing while tracking over the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates essentially the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/3) This model is corrupt, and still shows an Active MJO in control today when everything else depicts the Inactive Phase is in control.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/4) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA with a one contour Inactive MJO over that area with west anomalies on the dateline and points east of there with a one contour Active MJO over the East Pacific. The forecast has weak to modest east anomalies building to the east and filling the KWGA 8/9 if not most of the equatorial Pacific through the end of the model 9/1 run while easing east some. But west anomalies are to push east into the far West Pacific reaching 140E starting 8/18 and holding through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/5) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today 2 Active MJO contours were past their peak over the West Pacific but with neutral to east anomalies filling most of the KWGA. The Active Contour is to hold through 8/10 with neutral to weak west anomalies starting to build over the KWGA. 1 Inactive contour is to set up 8/7 in the west reaching the dateline 8/18 holding through 9/6 with neutral to weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. On 8/29 the Active Phase supposedly develops over the West KWGA building with 3 contours filling the KWGA and holding in some capacity through the end of the model run on 11/2 with west anomalies building to modest status west of 155E on 9/4 and holding unchanged through the end of the model run and east anomalies east of that point. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and started slowly easing east into the West Pacific on 6/30, moving more aggressively east 7/11 from 125E reaching 145E 7/29 and is at 150E today (8/3) and is to ease a little more east into 8/15 then holding at at 155E through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was east of the dateline with 1 contour today. That contour is collapsing east and is to reach 130W 8/21 then returning to 165E late Sept and holding there beyond. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are to be tracking east with the dividing line at 160E starting 8/20 and that dividing line holding from there forward with the low pressure bias and west anomalies filling 50% of the KWGA beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (8/5) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm has backtracked from 180W to 176E and is stable there today. The 28 deg isotherm line has backtracked from 163W to 165W and is steady there now. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador at 12 meters deep now to surfacing at 110W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and the far East Pacific but with a break between 135W to 175E. And cold anomalies down to -3 degrees are building at depth centered at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/1 indicates slightly cool anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of the dateline except for a few lingering pockets off Ecuador. Cool anomalies were building below at 135W though not breaking through like the TAO data suggests. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific with weak warm anomalies filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/1) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were generally weakly negative on the equator and up to but -5 to -10 cms below normal between Ecuador to 150W and growing to the east. Heights were weakly above normal in the west from 175E and points west of there. Negative anomalies at up to -15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 135W and -20 cms south of the equator at 7S south 125W. It appears the cool pool is rebuilding over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/1) indicates the cool pool in the east dissipated on 4/12 while warm anomalies built over the equatorial Pacific. But on 7/15 cool anomalies started rebuilding and are now depicted filling the area from 145W to 118W but losing coverage. In 2 weeks we went from ENSO neutral from what now looks like a developing La Nina but perhaps now weakening some the past 5 days.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/4) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps over the West and East Equatorial Pacific with a clear cool pool developing between 110W-165W (NINO3.4). Cool anomalies were also streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N (just south of Hawaii) then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. This looks like ENSO Neutral trending towards La Nina. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of 160E with cooler waters from 170E and points east of there nearly to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/4): Temps were cooling pretty consistently from the 90W to 130W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/5) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps continued rising to -0.088, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/5) Today's temps were falling slightly at -0.463 after falling to -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.3 on July 30. Previously temps were -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-July.
Forecast (8/5) - Temps started fading in mid-July and are to fall into mid-Nov down to -0.85, then rising back to neutral in March 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps falling to -0.75 degs. It looks like we're heading back into La Nina in the Fall of '25, turning neutral in late Spring 2026.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 18, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.158. Temps to slowly fall to -0.345 in Oct, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.392 OND then rising some to +0.174 at the end of the model run on MAM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.311 NDJ rising to -0.170 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/5) the Daily Index was negative at -18.03 and has been negative the last 4 days, but effectively positive the past month.
The 30 day average was rising at +4.89 and has been generally rising the last month.
The 90 day average was falling at +2.94 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.