Saturday, August 1, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 10.1 secs from 178 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.2 secs from 28 degrees. Water temp 79.9 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 6.4 secs from 275 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 67.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.3 ft @ 7.8 secs from 319 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 6.4 secs from 266 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.1 ft @ 6.3 secs from 281 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.4 secs from 280 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 9.5 secs from 310 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 15-20 kts. Water temp 56.3 degs (013), 61.3 degs (SF Bar) and 57.9 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (8/1) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at knee to maybe thigh high and nearly chopped from northwest winds early. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high on the sets and and mushed and clean but a little warbled and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was flat with rare knee high sets and clean and very weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to thigh high and clean but with a fair amount of warble coming from the northwest and soft with no wind. Central Orange County had some sets in the thigh to waist high range and clean but very soft breaking just off the beach early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at thigh high on the peaks and clean with no wind and weak and inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and weak and mushed with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had occasional occasional chest high sets and clean with decent form when it came. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves thigh high or so and chopped from east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (8/1) small southern hemi swell was fading in Hawaii originating from a tiny gale that developed southeast of New Zealand on Thurs (7/23) producing 30 ft seas over a tiny area for 18 hours aimed northeast. Locally generated windswell was trying to develop for exposed breaks in California but not there yet. Looking forward a small gale is forecast producing a broad area of 29-30 ft seas over the Southeast Pacific on Sun (8/2) aimed northeast. But a gale that was to develop southeast of New Zealand Tues-Thurs (8/6) with 36 ft seas sweeping east has disappeared from the charts. Perhaps a gale is to form in the far Southeast Pacific a week out (Thurs 8/7) producing 35 ft seas aimed east, but that seem more a fantasy than reality. But at least there's some hope before then.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (8/1) no swell of interest was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. But a series of weak low pressures system are forecast tracking through the Northern Gulf of Alaska Mon-Tues (8/4) then again on Thurs-Fri (8/7) producing up to 16 ft seas, suggesting that perhaps there's faint signs of Fall trying to organize. It's too early to be believable just yet though.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (8/1) a weak gradient was building producing northwest winds 20 kts for Central CA all day and 15-20 kts up to and over Pt Arena for NCal later with minimal windswell production possible. Sun (8/2) more of the same is forecast with northwest winds 15-20 kts mainly for Central CA but nearshore up into North CA offering minimal windswell production potential holding all day. Mon (8/3) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts all day for North and Central CA and building coverage some in the afternoon starting to offering a little more potential for windswell development at exposed breaks. On Tues (8/4) a building fetch of northwest winds is forecast early at 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA waters offering respectable potential for windswell development. Wed (8/5) the gradient is to be holding while building coverage with northwest winds 15-20 kts over North and Central CA offering good but raw windswell generation potential. Thurs (8/6) the gradient is to lift north but fade in coverage some producing 20-25 kts northwest winds mainly over North CA with 15 kts northwest winds mainly off the coast of Central CA continuing some windswell generation potential. Fri (8/7) more of the same is forecast with northwest winds 20-25 kts over North CA and 10-15 kts northwest winds mainly off the coast of Central CA offering some more windswell production potential. Sat (8/8) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts mainly for North CA with northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA offering some windswell production potential.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 14,000 ft or higher for the week.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Saturday (8/1) the jetstream was well split over the width of the South Pacific with the southern branch nudging south under New Zealand reaching down to 63S and pushing over the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf then sweeping east to 135W offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours over the Southeast Pacific jet is to start lifting northeast on Sun (8/2) with winds 100-110 kt forming a broad trough there offering a brief window to support gale formation. But by later Mon (8/3) a new weak ridge is to start building in from the west shutting that potential down. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (8/5) a zonal flow is to set up with the jet running flat west to east down on the 60S latitude line with no trough forecast offering no real support for gale production holding into late Fri (8/8). At that time a bit of a trough is to try and develop in the far Southeast Pacific being fed by 130 kt southwest winds offering some potential to support gale development. And a stronger trough is forecast developing under New Zealand at the same time being fed by 150 kt winds pushing to the northeast offering better support for gale development.
On Saturday (8/1) small swell from a gale previously under New Zealand had all but dissipated in Hawaii.
Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the far Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (8/1) producing a broad fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds with a core to 40 kts lifting northeast. On Sun AM (8/2) the fetch is to lift northeast at 35-40 kts producing 29 ft seas at 55S 133W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest while moving out of the California swell window with seas holding at 29 ft at 48.5S 125W aimed northeast and fading. Fetch is to be gone after that. Low odds of some 15-16 secs period swell resulting radiating north towards California.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. The models do suggest a low pressure system developing in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska on Thurs (8/6) producing 30 kt northwest winds with seas to 17 ft near 52N 166W. But this still seems a little premature given the time of year.
Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast building in the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs AM (8/6) producing a modest sized area of 40-45 kt west winds and seas building from 29 ft over a small area at 62S 138W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to build in coverage at 45 kts from the southwest with seas 35 ft at 62.5S 125.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (8/7) southwest winds to be 45 kts with 38 ft seas on the eastern edge of the SCal swell window at 61S 118W aimed northeast. The gael is to build beyond but be well east of the SCal swell. Something to monitor.
La Nina Pulse Gathering Momentum
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/31) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderately easterly over the East equatorial holding modest easterly over the Central Pacific then moderate east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/1) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA continuing over the whole of the equatorial Pacific to Ecuador. The forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status on 8/3 in the heart of the KWGA and building in coverage filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/6. Support for energy transfer into the jet is very low and forecast to only turn more that way resulting in the jet moving more poleward. Westerly anomalies tend to pull the jet equatorward.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (7/31) A neutral MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a weak to modest Active Pattern is to start building in far west KWGA on day 5 of the model run building steadily through day 15 of the model run and filling the KWGA at that time. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially and is corrupt after that.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/1) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Maritime Continent today and is to slowly ease east while remaining at weak status moving into the West Pacific 15 days out. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the strength of the Active Phase building to modest strength and holding through day 15 over the West Pacific.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/31) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pushing over Central America today. A modest and coherent Active MJO is forecast developing over the KWGA on 8/10 pushing over the Central Pacific and into the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/9. At that time a developing weak Inactive MJO is forecast moving east into the far West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/31) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today with east anomalies filling the KWGA at modest strength and continuing east to Ecuador. The forecast indicates a continuation of no MJO signal but with strong east anomalies developing over the KWGA on 8/3 filling the entirety of the Pacific then collapsing isolated to the KWGA on 8/7 but holding there at strong status through 8/19. At that time a weak Active Phase is forecast pushing over the KWGA but with east anomalies holding but weakening to modest strength by 8/21 as the Active MJO pushes east of the KWGA. East anomalies to hold at modest strength in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/28. Westerly anomalies are forecast developing in the Central Pacific and East Pacific on 8/13 and holding beyond mainly associated with the Active MJO pushing east over that area at that time. But overall a long run of easterly anomalies are setting up in the KWGA. August will be a tough month for swell production theoretically.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/1 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO tracking east through the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and reaching east to Ecuador on the equator. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO tracking eat and out of the KWGA on 8/15 with modest east anomalies holding reaching east to Ecuador. A modest Active MJO is forecast moving over the KWGA 8/7 and then filling it by 8/15 and holding through 9/2 producing weak west anomalies at best filling the KWGA and then east to Ecuador. A modest Inactive Phase is forecast traversing the Pacific 8/25-9/18 with another bout of solid east anomalies in the KWGA and filling the while equatorial Pacific through 9/26. A strong Active Phase of the MJO is forecast 9/12-10/13 with west anomalies filling the KWGA at up to strong status. This is an upgrade. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 10/12-the end of the model run on 10/29. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the dateline today and is to steadily build in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 8/22 with the high pressure bias filling the bulk of the equatorial Pacific by 8/7 and not giving up any ground over the length of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is to appear over the Indian Ocean starting 8/12 building in coverage through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are almost complete migrating east into the West Pacific today and are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 8/5 and then building and filling in over that entire area for the foreseeable future. Based on this model it appears a transition towards La Nina is occurring.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm has retrograded at 171E today. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded to 172W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing east to 112W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were previously isolated to the West Pacific were today pushing east on the surface and filling the upper reaches of the equatorial Pacific east to 100W. But they were breaking up between 135-180W. Cool anomalies that have been upwelling to the surface off of Ecuador from a subsurface pocket of cool water is all but gone today. But a pocket of cool anomalies was pushing east under the Central Pacific with it's leading edge at 125W today with its core at 155W with temps down to -3 deg C. It appears a conveyor belt of cool water (Cold water Kelvin Waves) was in effect. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/27 indicates the same thing with a cool water bubble at depth in the far east erupting to the surface between 105W to 80W at -3 degs C. Another subsurface cool bubble was in-flight to the east at 155W stretch from 180W to 125W. A thin wall of warm water was between the 2 cool bubbles. Yet a third cool bubble was building in the far west at 140E. In effect a river of cool water was at depth under the entirety of the equatorial Pacific 150m tracking east. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/27) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were showing signs of rebuilding over the bulk of the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward. Neutral anomalies were west of there to 160E. Negative anomalies were along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to mainland Mexico but weaker than days and week past at only -5 cms. But, no positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific either, except west of 160E.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/31) The latest images indicate cold water was holding along Peru tracking northwest while building over and off Ecuador then tracking west on the equator while weakening over the Galapagos out to 110W then weakening but continuing cool west to 170W, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. The stream was steady today. Cool anomalies were along the coast of Chile up into Peru turning decidedly cooler and appearing to be feeding the cool stream. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of weak rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/31): Pockets of cooling water were in-place from Ecuador extending west on the equator to the Galapagos building at west of there to 120W then weaker west of there to the dateline but more evident than even 2 days earlier. Temperatures were dropping solidly over the entire equatorial Pacific. There were some small pockets of warming interspersed. The short term trend is looking like development of a large scale cooling trend. At this time it looks like a previously stalled La Nina pattern is now rebuilding.
Hi-res Overview: (7/31) A stream of cool water is entrenched along the coast of Peru lifting northwest to the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and building over the entire region. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator out to the dateline. Overall the data suggests a building La Nina like pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/1) Today's temps were steady at -1.794, after previously down to -1.970 on 7/17. Temps have been dropping steadily since March 26. Overall the trend is towards cooling after having previously been in a warmer range at +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/10) Temps were falling hard today to -0.295 after being neutral the past 4 weeks 6/27-7/25. Previously temps were rising the last previous 3 weeks after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend was warming but now appears to be in a decline.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/1) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020, then started falling down to -0.20 in late-May before stabilized there through late June. The forecast depicts temps starting a precipitous fall on July 1, down to -0.50 in late July, continuing down reaching -1.10 on Oct 1 and dropping to -1.20 through mid Dec, then starting to rebound reaching at -0.25 April 1. According to this model sea surface temps should have been falling strongly starting July 1 moving towards La Nina as Summer progressed. But as of today (8/1) actual temps were neutral in the Nino3.4 region through 7/26, and have only recently started to trend downward. For the model to verify, some dramatic cooling is going to have to happen soon, which it may just be starting to do. Regardless, we think the dynamic models might be overstating the magnitude of the coming cooling trend for the equatorial Pacific.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.42 degs, and are to fall into Oct to -0.55 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.35 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by March. The low outlier is a dynamic models (NASA GMAO). But a good plethora of models are now suggesting a developing solid La Nina. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/1): The daily index was negative today at -9.23. The 30 day average was steady at +3.25. The 90 day average was falling to -0.92, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table