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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, July 31, 2022 1:07 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.0 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/1 thru Sun 8/7

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Tiny Final SPac Swell Arriving in CA
Maybe Some Swell From Hurricane Frank

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, July 31, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 183 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 6.4 secs from 39 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.9 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 16.5 secs from 214 degrees. Wind southwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 69.4 degs, 70.3 (Topanga 103), 66.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 73.2 (Del Mar 153), 72.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.0 ft @ 17.0 secs from 203 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 18.0 secs from 211 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.0 ft @ 17.8 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.9 secs from 210 degrees. Water temp 71.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 17.0 secs from 201 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 53.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.3 (Pt Reyes 46013), 56.7 (46026), 58.6 (SF Bar 142), 59.0 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 56.7 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (7/31) North and Central CA had set waves at thigh to maybe waist high and slightly warbled but fairly clean but soft and mushed and unremarkable with fog just off the deck. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and clean with some northwest warble intermixed and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high and clean and soft with fog on it early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to maybe thigh high and clean and weak. Central Orange County had sets to waist high if not slightly more and lined and clean with just a light northwesterly flow on occasion. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and clean but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and clean but unremarkable. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore still had waves with sets chest to head high and clean and lined up when the sets came early. The East Shore had windswell with waves thigh to waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (7/31) swell was fading in Hawaii but starting to barely build in California from the third and final gale in a series that developed just off the Ross Ice Shelf on Sat-Sun (7/24) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed northeast. Beyond a small gale developed over the far Southeast Pacific on Thurs (7/28) producing 35 ft seas barely in the SCal swell window and aimed mostly east. Beyond a weak gale developed on the east edge of the Southern CA swell window on Thurs (7/28) with 33 ft seas aimed east. No meaningful swell to result. And another weak gale is to develop over the Central South Pacific tracking east on Wed-Thurs (8/4) producing 34 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast then redeveloping in the Southeast Pacific Fri (8/5) with 29-31 ft seas aimed north. Something to weakly monitor.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/31) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Hurricane Frank built to hurricane status on Fri (7/29) with 70 kts winds 480 nmiles southwest of Cabo San Lucas tracking northwest. Frank peaked through the day Sat (7/30) with 80 kts winds 1100 nmiles south of Dana Point CA on the 175 degree path to Southern CA holding through the evening 950 nmiles south and on the 180 degree path to Dana Point. A quick fade set in Sun AM (7/31) with winds down to 75 kts and the forecast indicates Frank is to drop down to tropical storm status Monday AM (8/1).

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival at sunset on Sun (7/31) building later Mon (8/1) to 3.2 ft @ 13 secs (4.0 ft faces) and peaking Tues AM (8/2) at 3.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading fast on Wed AM (8/3) from 3.0 ft @ 9-10 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

North CA: Expect swell building at exposed breaks on Mon (8/1) to 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs later (3.0 ft faces) and peaking mid-day Tues AM (8/2) at 3.4 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading fast on Wed AM (8/3) from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 170-175 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon (8/1) northwest winds to be calm for North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for both North and Central CA. No windswell production forecast.
  • Tues (8/2) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and calm for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North and Central CA. Limited short period windswell production possible.
  • Wed (8/3) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to build to 15 kts over a shallow area for both North and Central CA with the remnants of Hurricane Frank 450 nmiles southwest of Pt Conception. No windswell forecast.
  • Thurs (8/4) northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts for North CA and 5-10 kts early for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts south of Bodega Bay. The remains of what was Hurricane Frank are to be barely circulating 300 nmiles west-southwest of Pt Conception. Very limited short period northwest windswell possible late.
  • Fri (8/5) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts south of Bodega Bay to Pt Conception. No windswell production forecast.
  • Sat (8/6) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts off of Cape Mendocino early and 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. No windswell production forecast.
  • Sun (8/7) northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay for Central CA. No windswell production is forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (7/31) the influential southern branch of the jetstream was running west to east in a zonal pattern on the 60S latitude line with the northern branch pushing south and reinforcing the southern branch over the Central South Pacific with no troughs indicated offering no clear support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast and if any thing the southern branch dipping further south then finally weakening on Wed (8/3) but still no troughs forecast. Beyond 72 hours a ridge is to start building south of New Zealand on Thurs (8/4) pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf offering no support for gale development. But the tiniest of troughs is to form ahead of that ridge sweeping east into Fri (8/5) over the Southeast Pacific offering some very limited hope. Otherwise the ridge is to sweep east shutting potential down. There's some suggestion that a weak trough might form behind the trough under New Zealand on Sat (8/6) but winds speeds in that trough (assuming it even forms) are to be weak offering little hope. We're now in the typical late summer doldrums.


Surface Analysis
Swell from the 2nd of 3 weak gales previously over the South Central Pacific is fading in California while the 3rd and final swell in the series is fading in Hawaii and arriving in CA (see 2nd and 3rd Weak South Central Pacific Gales below). Background swell from a gale previously over the extreme Southeast Pacific might also make a few minimal waves in Southern CA for next weekend (8/6) but odds are low.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

2nd Weak Central South Pacific Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/21) producing southwest winds at 40 kts just clear of the Ross Ice Shelf with seas building from 27 ft at 59.5S 179.25E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was tracking northeast barely at 40 kts with seas 29 ft over a small area at 58.25S 172.5W aimed northeast. The gale and associated fetch and seas faded fast from there. Limited swell is possible.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Sun (7/31) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) and starting to get overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 205 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (7/31) from 1.2 ft @ 15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) and starting to get overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 203 degrees

 

3rd Weak Central South Pacific Gale
On Sat PM (7/23) another small gale developed southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 62S 177W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/24) the gale was fading with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a decent sized area and seas 32 ft at 60S 165.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was lifting north while fading and getting absorbed by a cutoff low to the north with south winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 55.25S 162.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Swell fading on Sun (7/31) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Sun (7/31) building to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking mid-day Mon (8/1) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/2) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/3) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/31) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking later Mon (8/1) at 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/2) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/3) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific Wed PM (7/27) with 35-40 kts west winds and seas building. On Thurs AM (7/28) fetch was building to 45 kts more solid from the southwest right on the edge of the CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 61.5S 129W aimed mostly east. In the evening fetch was holding at 45 kts and moving just east of the SCal swell window with seas up to 34 ft exiting the SCal swell window at 63.0S 117W between 18Z Thurs to 00Z Fri (7/29). Something to monitor but odds of meaningful swell resulting are low.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Fri 98/5) with no rideable size forecast. Swell peaking Sat (8/6) at 0.8 ft @ 16 secs at exposed breaks (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Wed AM (8/3) a tiny gale is to develop just southwest of New Zealand with 55 kt southwest winds and seas building to 33 ft over a tiny area at 53.5S 180W aimed northeast. Fetch is to track east-northeast in the evening at 45 kts with seas 34 ft seas at 50.5S 169.25W aimed northeast but only over a tiny area. On Thurs AM (8/4) southwest winds are forecast at 45 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 34 ft at 50.5S 158.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts over a broader area aimed well northeast positioned over the Central South Pacific with seas fading from 32 ft at 46.5S 150.25W. On Fri AM (8/5) fetch is to rebuild at 35-40+ kts over a solid area aimed due north with seas 29 ft at 45.75N 139W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds are forecast at 35-45 kts aimed north over the Southeast Pacific with 30 ft seas at 50S 131W aimed north. On Sat (8/6) fetch is to be dissipating from 35 kts aimed north with seas 31 ft at 45.75S 128W aimed north-northeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Some odds of swell resulting if all occurs as forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Kelvin Wave All But Gone
Cool Water Redeveloping -
Models Suggesting A Final La Nina Surge for Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but is discharging now. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected weakly returning in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/30) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and near neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/31) Strong east anomalies were over the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies continuing at strong status over the KWGA into 8/4 then fading to moderate status and holding through the end of the model run on 8/7.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/30) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO signal to continue through the 15 day model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with a greater tendency towards the Inactive Phase through the 15 day model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(7/31) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Indian Ocean and is to move to the Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the same but with the Active Phase doubling back on itself but returning to the Indian Ocean on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/31) A modest Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East equatorial Pacific moving towards Ecuador. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) tracking east while dissolving over the Central America on 8/5. The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air) is to be develop over the KWGA on 8/5 tracking east over the Central Pacific into the East Pacific and Ecuador by 8/30. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA starting 8/30 and filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/9.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/30) A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today with moderate to strong east anomalies over the KWGA. Looking forward a neutral MJO is forecast with east anomalies slowly decaying to weak strength on 8/6 through 8/13 then starting to build some to moderate strength on 8/17 and holding through the end of the model run on 8/27 with still no clear MJO present.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(7/31 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive Phase was building over the KWGA with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 8/16 with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. On 8/6 a weak pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO is to try and build through 8/24 but with east anomalies holding filling the KWGA. Another pulse of the Inactive Phase is to set up in the KWGA 8/24-9/9 with east anomalies building solid over the dateline. On 8/30 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start building pushing through the KWGA through 10/12 with west anomalies reaching east to about 175E stalling there the falling back to 150E and holding through the end of the model run on 10/28. East anomalies are to fill the area east of there but slowly giving way and less coherent over the KWGA by 10/16. This is an interesting development. It seems east anomalies are to become less locked and strong even over the dateline as we get deeper into October. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/5 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 140E today filling 40% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 130E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/6. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) but are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA for the foreseeable future.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/31) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 168E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 178E. The 26 degree isotherm was backtracking to 154W from 148W and previously from 142W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific but pretty shallow in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge at 168W, A pocket of cool anomalies were developing down to -3 degs C at 140W and filling the area from 170W to 110W at depth. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +2 deg in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 128W and slowly losing coverage while pushing east and erupting to the surface. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/27 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 170W and far warmer. A cool pocket was between 120W to 170W and reaching the surface. The faint fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were fading fast between 100-130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/27) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline pushing to east 165E. A building pocket of negative anomalies were developing at -15 cms between 115W to 175W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram the Kelvin Wave was gone. And cool anomalies were building between 120W and 175W and again just off Ecuador. A cool cycle is developing.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/30) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. The coolest waters were on the equator west of 135W. An area of warm water was present nearly continuous on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W, the eruption of the current Kelvin Wave. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/30): Pockets of cooling and warming water were on the equator between 90W to 160W with an equal number of each. No clear cooling or warming trend was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (7/27) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S with the coolest waters between 150W to 170E on the equator. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 135W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning with warm water from a Kelvin Wave erupting over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/31) Today's temps were rising at -0.8347 after dipping on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. But in general they've been stable near -1.4 degrees since 6/12. Previous in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/31) Today's temps continued trending down at -0.559 and back in La Nina territory and have been falling since 7/15 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs.
Forecast (7/31) - Temps are to fade steadily in Aug to -1.05 degs then holding there into Nov, before starting a quick rise above the La Nina threshold in Jan 2023 and up to +0.25 degs in April. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -0.80 Aug and holding into mid-Nov, then starting an upward progression rising above La Nina threshold in late Dec and rising from there forward to +0.20 degs in April. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Dec. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec near neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific and cool waters totally gone in Jan. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from October and points beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (7/31) the daily index was rising at +28.87 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was rising some at +7.23 today after falling to 6.89 on 7/29 then peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling rising some at +14.08 after falling to +13.49 (7/27) and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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