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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, July 31, 2021 12:32 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.9 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/2 thru Sun 8/8

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

One Last Swell Pushing North
Models Offer No Real Hope

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, July 31, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 6.5 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 7.1 secs from 152 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 6.4 secs from 48 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 13.7 secs from 174 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temperature 68.2 degs, 65.3 (Topanga 103), 58.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 61.3 (Del Mar 153), 65.8 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.3 ft @ 7.5 secs from 308 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.5 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 13.5 secs from 196 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 189 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.7 secs from 175 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was south at 10-12 kts. Water temp 57.7 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.5 (46026), 58.8 degs (SF Bar 142), and 60.6 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (7/31) North and Central CA had waves at knee high and weak and heavily textured from south wind. Protected breaks were flat to knee high and textured from south wind. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high on the bigger sets and inconsistent and clean and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and heavily textured from northwest wind. Central Orange County had set waves at waist high on the sets and warbled and mushed and totally fogged in. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets up to waist high and mushed and textured if not warbled from northwest wind. North San Diego had sets waves at knee to thigh high and clean and soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some waist high sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting small short period windswell with waves waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (7/31) California was getting no rideable surf of interest. Hawaii was about the same. Beyond a weak gale formed in the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (7/27) producing a small area of up to 33 ft sea aimed northeast towards CA. Swell is radiating towards the US West Coast. But after that no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. Get what you can while you can. The doldrums of summer have arrived.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/31) no swell from previous fetch was in the water and no swell producing fetch was occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of swell producing interest were occurring or forecast.

Tropical Depression 9E was about 1500 nmiles south-southwest of Pt Conception CA on Sat AM (7/31) taking a westerly track with winds 25 kts and forecast to build to 45 kts 6 days out but not really of any interest.

Tropical Storm Hilda was 1,200 nmiles south of San Diego CA on Sat AM (7/31) with winds 55 kts forecast building to hurricane status this evening with winds 70 kts building on Sun (8/1) to 85 kts and holding into Mon AM taking a west-northwesterly track. there's some weak potential for swell development for Southern CA. Will monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sun (8/1) northwest winds to be 20 kts over a building area from Pt Arena northward with west winds 5 kts south of there over Central CA early with the fetch over North Ca fading in the afternoon. Low to no odds of small windswell developing.
  • Mon (8/2) northwest winds to again be 15-20 kts over a small area mainly off Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts off the coast of Central CA and 5 kts nearshore and holding later. Low odds of tiny windswell developing.
  • Tues (8/3) northwest winds to be 20 kts over North CA north of Pt Arena early and 15 kts offshore south of there down into r Central CA early (5-10 kts nearshore) fading to 15 kts everywhere in the afternoon. Maybe some weak to modest raw windswell developing.
  • Wed (8/4) northwest winds to be 20 kts over Cape Mendocino early and 15-20 kts for Central CA early fading up north to 10-15 kts later and 20-25 kts northwest winds limited to Pt Conception. No real windswell expected.
  • Thurs (8/5) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts mainly over the Pt Conception area early and 15-20 kts northward to Pt Arena early then building in coverage in the afternoon with 20-25 kts northwest winds from Cape Mendocino south to the Channel Islands later. Modest raw windswell developing later.
  • Fri (8/6) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts from Bodega Bay southward early fading to 15-20 kts later maybe building north to Cape Mendocino. Low odds for some developing windswell.
  • Sat (8/7) northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central CA early. No real windswell forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 13,000 ft then returning to 14,000+ ft by 8/2 with no change forecast.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (7/31) the influential southern branch of the jet was ridging hard south over the Southwest Pacific into Antarctica then starting to lift north over the far Southeast Pacific forming a weak trough somewhat supportive of gale development being fed by 120 kts winds but almost east of the Southern CA swell window. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to be pushing east and out of the CA swell window by early Sun (8/1) with the ridge holding over the South PAcific in the Ca and Hawaii swell windows into Mon (8/2). Perhaps a trough is to try and develop again in the far Southeast Pacific Tues AM (8/3) being fed by 120 kts south winds offering some potential to support gale development but it's to move east of the Southern CA swell window in the evening likely offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours the ridge in the west is to hold while migrating over the entirety of the South Pacific and still be in control of it on Fri (8/6). Perhaps a trough is to try and develop south of New Zealand later on Fri (8/6) being fed by barely 130 kts winds and trying to make some headway into the Southwest Pacific on Sat (8/7) perhaps offering some hop to support gale development there. But the ridge is to be stubborn. Low confidence in a positive outcome.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/31) things were pretty quiet for California and Hawaii. No swell was hitting. A final swell is radiating north from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below). But after that there was no swell in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sun AM (7/25) a small gale started building over the Central South Pacific with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft over a tiny area at 55.25S 148W aimed northeast. In the evening a broad area of 35 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with a core to 40-45 kts and seas building in coverage at 30-31 ft at 49.5S 141.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/26) south fetch was fading but broad in coverage at 30-35 kts with a core to 45 kts and seas 26-28 ft at 52.75S 131W but reaching north to 45S 135W aimed north-northeast. in the evening fetch was fading from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 29 ft at 50S 128W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/27) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts aimed north with seas fading from 25 ft at 47S 125W aimed northeast. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (8/1) with swell building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Mon (8/2) to 1.6 ft @ 15 secs later (2.5 ft). Additional energy building on Tues (8/3) to 2.5 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell stable on Wed (8/4) at 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (8/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (8/6) at 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (8/7) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (8/1) with swell building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Mon (8/2) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Additional energy building on Tues (8/3) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell stable on Wed (8/4) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (8/5) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (8/6) at 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (8/7) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

That said a cutoff gale is forecast developing east of New Zealand on Tues (8/3) getting some traction from fetch in its western quadrant on Wed AM (8/4) producing 35 kt south winds and seas 26 ft over a small area at 40S 173W aimed north. Fetch is to hold on in the evening at 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed north with barely 26 ft seas at 38S 168W aimed north. Fetch is to fade after that with sea below 25 ft on Thurs AM (8/5). Low odds for swell resulting for Hawaii though Tahiti could get some rideable swell if all develops are forecast. But even that is a reach.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina is Returning
Summary - Cool water is building across the subsurface equatorial Pacific with warm water from previous Kelvin Waves fading mainly in the east. The forecast suggests east anomalies taking over the equatorial Pacific from the dateline eastward in later August. And a high pressure bias is forecast to control the KWGA this Fall. Blocking high pressure is starting to rebuild and is to hold through Winter 2021-2022.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/30) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate over the KWGA. Anomalies were moderate east over the far East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/29) a mix of weak east and west anomalies were over the KWGA though mostly favoring the east anomaly mode. The forecast calls for a mix of weak east and west anomalies holding over the KWGA into 8/2, then east anomalies are start building at modest status in the core of the KWGA on 8/4 and holding through the end of the model run on 8/5. No sign of the Active Phase of the MJO was forecast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/30) A neutral MJO was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects an Inactive Pattern developing over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run filling the KWGA on day 10 and building to nearly strong status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing initially but with the INactive Phase faltering on day 10 of the model run and gone with a neutral MJO signal on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/31) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Pacific and forecast tracking steadily east to North Africa at very weak weak status 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/30) A moderate Active Phase (wet air) was indicated over the Central Pacific. The Active Phase is to push fast east moving over the East Pacific and into Central America on 8/19. A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving over the KWGA on 8/9 tracking steadily east and into the far East Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/8. A weak active Phase is to try and be moving into the far West KWGA at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/30) This model depicts a cohesive Active MJO signal over the KWGA today with modest west anomalies over the same area tracking east. The forecast indicates the Active MJO signal is to move through the KWGA through 8/10 with modest west anomalies in the KWGA during that window. East anomalies are to rebuild in the core of the KWGA at modest status starting 8/7 filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/27 with the Inactive Phase developing and passing through 8/14-8/22.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/31 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a weak Active Phase of the MJO was just past its peak over the KWGA with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to progress east across the KWGA with weak west anomalies holding until the Active Phase fades on 8/8. An Inactive Phase is to track east 8/5-8/30 with weak to modest east anomalies taking over the KWGA. A broader Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east 8/22-10/5 with west anomalies reaching east to about 165E (70% of the way across the KWGA) through that timeframe. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to follow starting 9/29 tracking east through the end of the model run on 10/28 but with mostly weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the far East Pacific (with one contour line) and the low pressure bias over the West KWGA centered at 120E filling the western 50% of the KWGA to 150E. The high pressure contour line is to hold over the far East Pacific then back-build west on the dateline on 8/24 and not moving any further west at the end of the model run with a second contour line developing on 10/3. The single contour low pressure bias is to dissipate on 8/15 then rebuild 8/30 recentered over the Maritime Continent at 100E like last winter and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies to take over the KWGA east of 165E on 8/30 with west anomalies west of there and no change forecast. This suggests a return to some flavor of a weak La Nina pressure pattern by September with east anomalies and high a pressure bias taking over from the mid-KWGA and points east of there. This forecast has been stable for over a month now suggesting it will actually happen.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/31) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 deg isotherm was backing west to 121W today. Warm water is definitely receding west. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were pushing east mostly just below the surface in a thin stream into Ecuador. Cool anomalies at -3 degs were building subsurface below the warm stream with a core at 160W with it's leading edge at 105W and moving east. This indicates warm water from previous Kelvin Waves were fading and a cool water wave was building underneath set to erupt. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/27 was even more stark suggesting no warm water remaining east of the dateline except for one small pocket near Ecuador. A solid stream of cool water was pushing up from 150 meters down on the dateline to within 30 meters of the surface in the east just west of the Galapagos. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/27) Sea heights were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific with negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms over the East equatorial Pacific between 90W-180W on the equator and all positive anomalies gone west of 160E. The warm water 'horseshoe' pattern was redeveloping in the West Pacific. La Nina is making a return.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/30) The latest images depict warm water on the equator limited to the area from Ecuador west to a point a bit west of the Galapagos (105W), then only in pockets from there west to 140W with mostly cooler waters developing in waves, and only cooler waters west of there. An area of weak warming was breaking up along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the return of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/30): A mix of mostly cold pockets were filling the area from Ecuador to 145W.
Hi-res Overview: (7/30) A broad area of warmer than normal water was along Peru, Ecuador and Central America up into Mexico but brick walled limited from 105W and points east of there. Cooler waters were on the equator from 110W to the dateline. A clear cool outflow was still pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be trying to make a resurgence.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/31) Today's temps were toggling at +0.085 after falling to -0.411 on 7/8. Temps previously peaked at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable and mostly below normal.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/31) Today temps were plummeting at -0.234, after bottoming out at -0.112 on 7/22. Temps previously peaked at +0.332 on 7/1, the highest in a year. They previously reached up to +0.224 on 6/15 and before that at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/31) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been rising since early Nov 2020 when they bottomed out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June holding to mid-July. The forecast indicates a steady fall in temperatures from 7/15 forward dropping to -0.95 degs in mid-Oct and holding in that area to mid Jan 2022. A slow but steady increase is forecast from there rising to +0.00 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.85 degs later in Oct into early Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.23 degs today, and are to fade steadily to -0.55 degrees in Nov and stabilizing there into December, then rising to neutral in Feb 2022. A weak return of La Nina is expected this Fall and Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (7/31): The daily index was still positive at +7.02 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The Inactive Phase was solid. The 30 day average was fading some at +15.75 after rising to +16.49 on 7/29 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to +7.34 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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