Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 12.8 secs from 197 degrees. Water temp 80.4 (Barbers Pt), 80.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 9.1 secs from 36 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.8 secs from 183 degrees. Wind northwest 6 kts. Water temperature 67.6 degs, 57.9 (Harvest 071), 66.9 (Topanga 103), 67.6 (Long Beach 215), 70.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 71.2 (Del Mar 153), 71.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 189 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.7 ft @ 6.4 secs from 267 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.5 secs from 202 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.4 secs from 184 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 187 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.7 secs from 185 degrees. Water temperature 68.7 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with southern hemi swell 2.1 ft @ 14.0 secs from 183 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), WNW 16-18 kts San Francisco (46026), WNW 9-10 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 59.0 (San Francisco 46026), 59.7 (SF Bar 142), 57.4 (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 58.1 (Monterey Bay 46092) and NA (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (7/21) in North and Central CA surf was waist to maybe chest high and poorly lined up and mushed and warbled from modest west-northwest wind with light rain and fog early. Protected breaks were knee to thigh high and weakly lined up and very soft and lightly warbled with rain and fog early. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high on the rare sets and slightly lined up and mushed and soft but clean. In Ventura County waves were knee to maybe thigh high on the peak on the sets and weakly lined up and soft and clean. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean but with some high tide wonk and a bit closed out. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high and reasonably lined up but generally soft with some texture in the water. North San Diego had sets at waist high and reasonably lined up and slightly warbled from onshore wind. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high and pretty lined up with decent form and clean but soft with some sideshore lump running through it. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (7/21) California was getting weak background swell of no particular interest mixed with northwest local windswell. Hawaii was getting fading Tasman Sea background swell. On Mon-Tues (7/15) a very weak gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific producing 24 ft seas aimed north. Very south angled swell is propagating north to CA. After that virtually no swell producing weather systems of interest have occurred with no swell in the water heading north towards HI and CA. But, starting Wed (7/23) a small gale is forecast developing in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing 29-30 ft seas aimed briefly north at Hawaii and CA with a broader second gale developing over the same area on Fri-Sat (7/26) lifting doe north with 35 ft seas. The models keep changing regarding the details of the second gale, but at least there is some hope on the charts.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (7/21) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast or being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tuesday AM (7/22) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No windswell expected.
Wednesday (7/23) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (7/24) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (7/25) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Sat AM (7/26) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Sun AM (7/27) northwest winds to build some at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts steady south of Monterey bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds build at 15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Low odds of minimal short period windchop resulting.
Mon AM (7/28) high pressure and northwest winds take over at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Build northwest local windswell possible.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 55-60 degs Tues (7/22) effectively unchanged through Fri (7/25) then rising some with temps building Sat (7/26) with temp 65-70 degrees.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (7/21) the jet was split with the southern branch trying to form a trough under New Zealand being fed by a small pocket of 120 kt winds trying to support gale formation but otherwise the southern branch was ridging hard south from a point southeast of New Zealand running east on the 66S latitude line tracking across the entire width of the South Pacific offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours starting Tues (7/22) the trough is to push east while lifting north some but winds are to be only 90-100 kts offering only minimal support for gale development southeast of New Zealand. Beyond 72 hours starting late Thurs (7/24) a stronger trough is to start building well southeast of New Zealand being fed by 130 kts winds mostly over the Ross Ice Shelf but with winds lifting due north well up into the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific into early Sat (7/26) perhaps supporting gale formation. but from an upper level perspective, it does not look as favorable as the surface charts predict. Regardless, by Sun (7/27) that is to all collapse. but then on Mon (7/28) a legitimate trough is forecast developing over the Central South Pacific being fed by 150 kts winds lifting solidly northeast offering good support for gale formation if one is to believe the models.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (7/21) residual background southern hemi swell was fading in California. Background swell was also hitting Hawaii. Otherwise minimal swell is theoretically radiating north originating from a small weak gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific (see Another Weaker SE Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed AM (7/23) a small gale is forecast developing over the Central South Pacific producing 40-45 kt south winds with seas building from 27 ft at 47.5S 158.25W aimed due north. The gale is to be fading in the evening while lifting north with south winds fading from 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 44S 158.75W aimed north. On Thurs AM (7/24) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the south with seas fading from 27 ft at 41.25S 155.25W aimed north. Fetch and seas gone after that. Maybe small swell to track towards Hawaii and California.

Another Weaker SE Pacific Gale
On Mon PM (7/14) a gale developed in the deep far Southeast Pacific with 35-40 kts south winds and seas building from 24 ft at 51S 124W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/15) 35 kt south winds persisted unmoving with seas 24 ft at 55.5S 120W aimed north. In the evening south winds were lifting north-northeast at 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 53S 119W aimed north-northeast. On Wed AM (7/16) fetch was gone. Given that seas barely reached 25 ft it seems likely no meaningful swell will survive the long journey north to California.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/22) building to 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building Wed (7/23) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (7/24) to 2.3 ft @ 14 secs in the afternoon (3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/25) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles Sat (7/26) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/22) building to 0.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/23) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (7/24) to 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs in the afternoon (3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/25) from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles Sat (7/26) fading from 2.2 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing over the deep South Central Pacific starting Thurs PM (7/24) with 35 kts south winds building over a reasonable sized area and seas building from 23 ft at 53S 166W aimed north. On Fri AM (7/25) south winds to build from 40 kts with seas 26 ft at 49S 158W aimed north. In the evening the gale is to build while lifting north a solid area of 45 kt south winds and seas 32 ft at 50.25S 151.25W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (7/26) south winds to start dissipating from 40 kts with seas peaking at 35 ft at 44.75S 150.75W aimed north. In the evening south winds to hold at 40 kts lifting north with seas 34 ft at 40.5S 148W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/27) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 29-30 ft fading at 36S 140W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Perhaps yet another system is to be developing just off the Ross Ice Shelf on Mon (7/28).

Possible Major Change Occurring Now in the West Pacific
West Anomalies and Lower Pressure Setting Up
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and was building into the East Equatorial Pacific today. And a low pressure bias was moving fast into the West Pacific and forecast moving to 165E in the next month beyond ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere was still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino (in the west).

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/20) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light to modest east over the far East Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light eat over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/21) Today modest west anomalies were pushing east to nearly the dateline with strong east anomalies east of there. West anomalies are to hold for a day or two then retreating west to 130E 7/24-7/29 before pushing east again reaching the dateline 7/31 at modest status and holding through the end of the model run on 8/6. East anomalies are to be steadily weakening in pockets at the end of the model run mostly all well east of the dateline. It seems a long awaited change is occurring and the GFS model has been steady concerning this change for a while now.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/20) Currently a modestly Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active Phase holding filling the KWGA on days 5, 10 and 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Active Phase (wet air) fading out on day 15 of the model run. This along with the GFS wind forecast above suggests a real change is coming.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/21) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the far East Maritime Continent today. The statistic model has it tracking to the West Pacific over the next 15 days and ranging between very weak to moderate 2 weeks out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase building while tracking east to the West Pacific 4 days out at moderate strength then collapsing there to weak status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/21) This model depicts a weak to modest Active Phase (wet air) stationary over the Central Maritime Continent. The forecast has it moving into the West KWGA 7/26 then tracking slowly east over the KWGA through 8/10. After that a weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 8/15 filling it through the last day of the model run on 8/30 while tracking east. But this model has been teasing eastward movement of the Active Phase for 2 months now with none of that actually occurring. The MJO appears to be stuck over the Maritime Continent and very weak unless the previous modes are correct.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/20) Today moderate west anomalies were reaching east to 145E with modest east anomalies east of there. An Active Contour is forecast developing in 2 days from 155E and points east of there. West anomalies are to backtrack some starting 7/21 retracting to 130E a day later then west anomalies build starting 7/27 filling the West Pacific over the dateline and east under the Active contour tracking east through 8/13. And west anomalies are to retract in the west 8/3 to 150E and holding there through the end of the model run on 8/17.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/21) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a single Active MJO contour was set up over the West Pacific with west anomalies filling the West Pacific reaching east to 170E with weak east anomalies east of there. The Active Contour is to build to 2 contours holding and filling the KWGA through 8/12 with west anomalies in control. 2 Inactive contours are to set up 8/6 in the west reaching the dateline 8/12 holding through 8/30 but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. On 8/25 another Active Phase develops over the West KWGA building with 2 contours filling the KWGA and holding in some capacity through the end of the model run on 10/18 with west anomalies building to modest status west of the dateline holding unchanged through the end of the model run. West anomalies to hold west of 165E through the end of the model run. East anomalies are to hold over the east equatorial Pacific with the dividing line between east and west anomalies 165E starting from mid-August onwards. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and started slowly easing east into the West Pacific on 6/30, then starting moving more aggressively east 7/11 at 125E reaching 150E 7/29 and holding there through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was mostly east of the dateline with 1 contour today. That contour is collapsing east today and is to move to 150W returning to 170E early Sept and holding there beyond. This suggests that both the high and low pressure bias's are to be tracking east with the dividing line at 165E starting 7/29 and that dividing line holding from there forward with the low pressure bias and west anomalies nearly filling the KWGA beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (7/21) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 179W. The 28 deg isotherm line has backtracked from 161W to 163W but is steady there. The 24 degree isotherm has retracted from Ecuador at 12 meters deep now to surfacing at 112W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 180m and running east but now breaking at 130W with warm anomalies again building to +2 degs east of the break point. And cold anomalies at -3 degrees are building at depth between 165W to 110W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/17 indicates neutral to slightly warm anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east across the deep thermocline (100-150m down) from the dateline to 82W in the East Pacific and erupting in pockets east of the Galapagos. But the density of those warm anomalies was thinning. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific with weak warm anomalies filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/17) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral 2 degrees north and south of the equator but -5 cms on the equator between 125W-145W. Temps were weakly positive in the east from 110W and points east of there and somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 170E. Negative anomalies at up to -15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 160W and 130W and -20 cms 7 degrees south of the equator at 125W. It appears the cool pool is trying to rebuild on one pocket over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/17) indicates the cool pool in the east dissipated on 4/12. But a small pocket of cool anomalies are now indicated at 137W, the first since 4/20. Warm anomalies were filling the West and Central Pacific building in a wave pushing east on the equator reaching to 95W with neutral anomalies east of there to Ecuador. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/20) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps filling the West and East Equatorial Pacific with more prevalent pockets of cooling water between 120W-180W (NINO3.4). Warm anomalies extended up to 15 degrees north and south of the equator. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system and looking less defined as weeks past. This looks like ENSO Neutral. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were over the West Pacific with cooler waters from the 170E and points east of there.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/20): Temps were cooling in pockets from 90W to 140W otherwise neutral across the rest of the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/21) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising at +0.152, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/21) Today's temps continued falling to -0.498 after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were falling at -0.2 on July 16. Previously temps were +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-July.
Forecast (7/21) - Temps to start fading in Aug falling in Nov reaching down to -0.40, then rising back to neutral in Jan 2026 and rising to +0.5 in April. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps falling to -0.35 degs. It looks like we're in ENSO neutral pattern biased cool holding then starting to warm in early Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 18, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.158. Temps to slowly fall to -0.345 in Oct, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.392 OND then rising some to +0.174 at the end of the model run on MAM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.311 NDJ rising to -0.170 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26 biased cool.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/21) the Daily Index was positive at +15.27 and positive 13 days prior, negative the previous 3 days, then generally positive the previous 15 days, negative 6 days before that, toggling around neutral 5/30-6/13, solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days) previous, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +5.39 but has been generally holding the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was rising some at +1.94 and weakly on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling in June (2025) at -2.51, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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