Thursday, July 21, 2022
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.2 secs from 182 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.2 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 32 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 15.5 secs from 206 degrees. Wind northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 65.7 degs, 66.0 (Topanga 103), 61.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 70.0 (Del Mar 153), 70.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.6 secs from 206 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.7 secs from 199 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.7 secs from 198 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.2 secs from 196 degrees. Water temp 69.1 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 15.2 secs from 203 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temp 51.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.9 (Pt Reyes 46013), 54.7 (46026), 57.2 (SF Bar 142), 59.2 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 56.3 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (7/21) North and Central CA had set waves at chest high pushing out of the south and textured with intermixed northwest warble. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean with some warble intermixed. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up and peeling with large wave count sets. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to head high and reasonably lined up but with some warble in the water though conditions were clean with no wind early. Central Orange County had sets at chest to head high and lined and fairly clean but with some texture though wind was calm. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 2 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean but a little uneven. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and clean but pretty closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting leftover southern hemi swell with waves to occasionally chest high on the face and lined up and clean. The East Shore had east windswell at waist high and chopped from from strong east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (7/21) Hawaii was getting the last dribbles of surf and California was getting the backside of energy from what was a historically huge swell from a gale that developed in the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (7/12) with 44 ft seas modeled but confirmed up to 55 ft aimed well northeast. Looking forward a weak gale is forecast under New Zealand today producing up to 30 ft seas aimed northeast for 12 hours offering some hope. And another is forecast on Sat-Sun (7/24) producing 31 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe a stronger one is forecast over the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (7/28) producing 34 ft seas aimed northeast. So there is some minor hope.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (7/21) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (7/23) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts solid for both North and Central CA. Limited short period northwest windswell developing.
- Sat (7/24) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Modest junky windswell building.
- Sun (7/25) northwest winds are forecast at 20 to near 30 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Junky windswell fading some later.
- Mon (7/26) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 10-15 kts for the remainder of North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the remainder of North and Central CA. Windswell fading out.
- Tues (7/27) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for a limited are of Cape Mendocino early but otherwise 10 kts for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for all location. No windswell production forecast.
- Wed (7/28) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early maybe building to 15 kts in pockets in the afternoon. no windswell production forecast.
- Thurs (7/29) northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. A summertime pattern is in effect.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (7/21) the important southern branch of the jetstream was pushing northeast over the Ross Ice Shelf in the west and becoming barely exposed north of the ice line forming a trough being fed by 130 kt winds offering some limited support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to peak Thurs PM (7/21) then rapidly fade offering nothing. Nothing else to directly follow. Beyond 72 hours another trough is to form over the South Central Pacific on Sun (7/24) being fed by 140 kt winds barely reaching north of the Ross Ice Shelf then fading on Mon (7/25) offering some limited support for gale development. And then on Wed (7/27) a broader trough is to set up over the Central South Pacific being fed by 110 kt winds and getting stronger and broader on Thurs (7/28) being fed by 120 kts winds over Southeast Pacific offering good support for gale development.
Swell from Storm #3 is all but gone in Hawaii and fading in California (see Storm #3 below).
Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing under New Zealand on Thurs AM (7/21) producing southwest winds at 40 kts just clear of the Ross Ice Shelf with seas building from 27 ft at 59.5S 179.25E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be tracking northeast barely at 40 kts with seas 30 ft over a small area at 58.25S 172.25W aimed northeast. The gale and associated fetch and seas to fade fast from there. Limited swell is possible.
On Sat PM (7/23) another small gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 62S 176W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/24) the gale is to be fading with 35 kts southwest winds over a decent sized area and seas 30 ft at 59.75S 166.75W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade from there.
Another gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat PM (7/9) with 50 kt south winds over a building area imbedded in a broader area of 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 29 ft at 52S 175W aimed north. The Jason-3 satellite made a pass over the northwest quadrant of the storm at 06Z and reported at 15 reading average of 32.5 ft at 48.69S 171.15W with a single reading at 35.2 ft while the model indicated seas of 32 ft in that area. So the model was on track. On Sun AM (7/10) winds were building over a solid area at 50-55 kts from the south with seas building from 41 ft at 55.5S 163.5W aimed northeast and 38 ft seas at 51.5S 163W. In the evening fetch lifted northeast at 50 kts over a solid area with seas modeled to 43 ft at 51.5S 155.75W aimed northeast. But the Jason-3 satellite passed over the core of the fetch 2 times and reported a 15 reading average of 34.4 ft at 00Z at 58.26S 165.97W and a single reading of 36.9 ft at 22Z where the model indicated seas were 28 ft over the far southwest quadrant of the storm. And at 06Z the satellite made another pass with a 15 reading average of 48.9 ft with one reading to 55.8 ft at 55.225S 159.95W in the south portion of the fetch area where the model indicated seas were 38-40 ft. So the model appears to have under-estimated the seas in both cases. Likely the storm developed stronger than forecast. On Mon AM (7/11) a broad fetch of 40-45 kt south winds were pushing north with seas 41 ft at 52S 158W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40 kts over a solid area aimed north with seas 34 ft at 46.5S 155W aimed northeast. But again the Jason-3 satellite reported a 15 reading average of 38.1 ft with one reading to 42.7 ft, beating the model considerably. The gale was fading Tues AM (7/12) with southwest winds 35-40 kts over a moderate sized area aimed northeast and seas fading from 32 ft at 47S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas to rapidly dissipate after that. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Faint dribbles on Thurs (7/21) fading out. Swell Direction: 187 degrees
Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (7/21) from 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/22) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (7/23) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 203-204 degrees
North CA: Swell fading on Thurs (7/21) from 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/22) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (7/23) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201-202 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours a new gale is to develop in the Southeast Pacific Wed PM (7/27) with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 49S 147W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/28) fetch to build to 45 kts more solid from the southwest with seas 28 ft at 53S 146.25W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas supposedly building from there. Something to monitor.
Kelvin Wave Breaking Up
Cool Water Redeveloping - Models Suggesting Another La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but is stating to rebuild in late July. A Kelvin Wave traversed the equatorial Pacific May-June, but is discharging now. The SOI appears to be past its peak. La Nina conditions are projected weakly returning in Nino3.4 in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/20) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/21) Modest east anomalies were over the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies holding modestly over the KWGA then building quickly to strong status on 7/26 filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 7/28.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/20) A neutral to weakly Inactive MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a weak Inactive Pattern holding on day 5 then fading to neutral on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests a building Inactive pattern developing on days 5 and 10 filling the KWGA then collapsing to neutral on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/21) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over Africa and is to move to the Maritime Continent on day 15 of the model run and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/21) A weak Active MJO signal (wet air) was over the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Active Phase (wet air) tracking east while dissolving over the Central Pacific on 8/15. And even weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be develop over the KWGA on 8/20 tracking east to the Central Pacific through the end of the model run on 8/30.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/20) The Active Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA today but with west anomalies reaching east to only 150W and east anomalies over the remainder of the KWGA. The Active Phase is to push east through 7/27 but with west anomalies fading from here forward and gone on 7/24. East anomalies are to rebuild over the dateline starting 7/25 and holding solid through the end of the model run on 8/17.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/21 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Active Phase was fading over the KWGA with west anomalies reaching east to 160E and weak east anomalies over the remainder of the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Active Phase pushing east and dissipating on 7/28 over the dateline with weak east anomalies taking control of the KWGA A weak Inactive Phase is to set up over the KWGA 7/24 through 8/22 with east anomalies again filling the KWGA. But on 8/9 the Active Phase of the MJO is to be building east slowly filling the KWGA by 8/22 and holding through the end of the model run on 10/18. West anomalies to reach east to about 150E with east anomalies from 165E and points east of there. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 8/8 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 145E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 140E today filling 40% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 130E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/10. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 170W (previously on the dateline) but are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA for the foreseeable future.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east at 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east at 178E. The 26 degree isotherm was backtracking to 139W previously at 126W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific but shallow in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge at 170W, A pocket of cool anomalies were developing at 140W and filling the area from 170W to 120W at depth. The remnants of a previous Kevin Wave were at +3 deg in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 140W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/17 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 170W but far warmer. A cool pocket was between 120W to 170W and reaching the surface if not breaching it. The fading remnants of a previous Kelvin Wave were between 100-135W and breaching the surface. The Kelvin Wave is erupting to the surface and losing volume. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/17) Sea heights were falling over the Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator west of the dateline pushing to east 165E. A building pocket of negative anomalies were developing at at -10 cms between 125W to 180W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a Kelvin Wave was fading between 125W and 105W. And cool anomalies were building between 135W and 175W and again just off Ecuador. The Kelvin Wave looks like its starting to break up while weakly erupting. And a cool cycle is likely developing.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/20) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. An area of warm water was present nearly continuous on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W, the eruption of the current Kelvin Wave. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 145W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/20): Pocket of cooling water were on the equator between 90W to 140W. A cooling trend was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (7/20) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 135W reaching 3 degrees north and south of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning with warm water from a Kelvin Wave erupting over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/21) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.488 after dipping a few days before. Previous peaks were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5) and had been more or less steady at -1.5 degs since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/21) Today's temps were falling at -0.391 after being more or less steady at -0.288 and peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs.
Forecast (7/21) - Temps are to fall steadily fast from mid-July to about -0.9 degs by mid-Nov, before making a quick rise above the La Nina threshold in Dec and up to +0.75 degs in April. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps receding to -0.75 degree in mid-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold in Dec and rising from there forward to +0.25 degs in March and holding through April. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Jan 2023. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggests a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. By Dec near neutral temps are to prevail over the entire equatorial Pacific and cool waters totally gone in Jan. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening starting from October and points beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.665 degs today. Temps to fall more to -0.821 in Nov then are to warm to +0.024 in March. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (7/21) the daily index was falling at 0.55 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +9.69 today after peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at +14.84 today after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table