Tuesday, July 20, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.8 secs from 187 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.6 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 8.1 secs from 46 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 14.2 secs from 177 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 68.7 degs, 71.4 (Topanga 103), 64.4 degs (Long Beach 215), 74.1 (Del Mar 153), 72.7 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 8.1 secs from 307 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.6 secs from 207 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.8 secs from 202 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 192 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 8.0 secs from 311 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.5 ft @ 14.8 secs from 208 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 14-16 kts. Water temp 53.4 (029), 58.1 degs (SF Bar 142) and 58.5 degs (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (7/20) North and Central CA had waves at waist high and warbled from local northwest wind and mushed and not really rideable with fog and low clouds. Protected breaks were waist to chest high on the sets and mushed but fairly clean and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and inconsistent and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and moderately textured from weak northwest wind. Central Orange County had set waves at waist high and modestly textured from northwest winds and mushed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up with decent form but a bit textured early. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high and lined up and clean but soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The South Shore had some little waves at waist high or so and lined up and clean but with some sideshore warble intermixed. The East Shore was getting short period windswell with waves chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (7/20) California was getting small swell from a system that weakly formed under New Zealand on Fri-Sat (7/10) producing 28 ft seas aimed north then pushed across the South Pacific Mon-Tues (7/13) producing 25-28 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii was getting minimal leftovers from that swell. After that another system formed southeast of New Zealand tracking east Thurs-Fri (7/16) producing up to 31 ft seas aimed northeast. Tiny swell is radiating towards Hawaii and the US West Coast. And another system formed behind that in the deep Southeast Pacific on Mon-Tues (7/20) with 33 ft seas aimed east. So perhaps a bit more small swell is to appear for CA after a little break. Beyond the model are still suggesting some form of a small gale forming south of New Zealand Fri-Sat (7/24) lifting northeast with up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast over a small footprint. Otherwise things are pretty quiet.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (7/20) no swell from previous fetch was in the water and no swell producing fetch was occurring.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of swell producing interest were occurring or forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (7/21) northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA early and holding all day. Windswell building some.
- Thurs (7/22) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA holding all day. Windswell holding.
- Fri (7/23) northwest winds are forecast at 20+ kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA fading to 15 kts for Central CA later. Windswell fading slightly.
- Sat (7/24) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA early holding all day. Windswell steady.
- Sun (7/25) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA with the coverage of 25 kt winds over North CA fading some later. Windswell fading slightly.
- Mon (7/26) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts solid for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA with the coverage of 25 kt winds over North CA fading by 50% later. Windswell fading some.
- Tues (7/27) northwest winds at to be 20 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA and fading through the day. Windswell fading.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.
Freezing level 14,000+ ft with no change forecast.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Tuesday (7/20) the influential southern branch of the jet was in a zonal pattern running west to east down at 58S just north of the Ross Ice Shelf then forming a weak trough over the far Southeast Pacific being fed by 130 kts winds as the southern branch of the jet merged with the northern branch offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east and out of the CA swell window early Wed (7/21) no longer offering support for gale development relative to CA. Otherwise the zonal flow is to persist into early Fri (7/23) offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours a new trough is to start building south of New Zealand late Fri (7/23) being fed by 110 kts southwest winds offering some support for gale development while lifting northeast into Sat (7/24) before becoming cut-off by a new a solid ridge pushing hard east behind it and positioned well south down at 73S and sweeping east over the whole of the South Pacific likely shutting down support for gale development into Tues (7/27).
On Tuesday (7/20) swell was all but gone in Hawaii and hitting California originating from a weak gale that developed under New Zealand aimed mostly north at Hawaii (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And swell from another weak gale that formed southeast of New Zealand is in the water pushing northeast (see Another New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale started developing over the deep South Central Pacific on Mon AM (7/19) producing 40-45 kt west winds and seas 30 ft at 59.75S 144.75W aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kts west winds tracked east with 33 ft seas at 60.75S 137W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading from 35 kts on Tues AM (7/20) aimed northeast with seas fading from 32 ft at 57.25S 128.75 aimed east. The gael is to dissipate after that. Small swell is radiating towards mainly Central and South America with sideband energy tracking towards California.
Southern California: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/28) building to 0.8 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (7/29) at 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.0 ft). Swell dissipating after that (below 1 ft). Swell Direction: 185-195 degrees.
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/29) building to 0.9 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell steady on Fri (7/30) at 0.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that (below 1 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees.
Weak New Zealand Gale
Another small system started developing just southeast of New Zealand on Sat AM (7/10) producing 40-45 kts south winds over a small and fragmented area aimed north with seas 26-28 ft over a small area at 53.5S 178W aimed northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds were fading with seas 28 ft over a small area at 50S 177W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/11) 30-35 kt southwest winds continued over a small area southeast of New Zealand with 23 ft seas at 42S 168W aimed northeast and mostly of no interest. On Mon AM (7/12) this system is to regenerate weakly over the Central South Pacific producing southwest winds of 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 48S 152W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to build some at 40-45 kts in two small pockets with seas to barely 28 ft at 46S 141W aimed east-northeast. Tues AM (7/13) 35-40 kts west winds to barely hang on with seas 27 ft at 51S 142W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading in coverage at 40 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas 28 ft over a tiny area at 51.5S 130.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (7/14) the gale is to fade while moving to the edge of the SCal swell window with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 27 ft at 49.25S 118W aimed east. Low odds of tiny swell for Hawaii and then the us West Coast. The trend is down. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Swell building on Tues (7/20) to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading out after that. Swell Direction: 212 degrees
North CA: Swell building on Tues (7/20) to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading out after that. Swell Direction: 210 degrees
Another New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Wed PM (7/14) producing 40 kt south winds and seas building from 24 ft at 52.75S 173.5E aimed northeast. The gale built on Thurs AM (7/15) in strength and coverage with 45-50 kt south winds and seas building to 29 ft at 56.75S 176.25W aimed northeast. The gale was fading in the evening with a solid area of 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 54.5S 168.75W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (7/16) the gale was tracking east and being stretched northeast with 35-40 kts southwest winds over a larger area and seas 30 ft at 52S 159.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts and stretching well northeast with seas from the original fetch fading from 29 ft at 52.75S 151.25W aimed well northeast. On Sat AM (7/17) the gale dissipated.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (7/22) building to 0.9 ft @ 17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell holding on Fri (7/23) at 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.0-1.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Sat (7/24). Swell Direction: 188 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival later on Sat (7/24) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (7/25) at 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Mon (7/26) at 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Tues (7/27) at 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196-201 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival later on Sat (7/24) building to 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building on Sun (7/25) at 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (7/26) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Tues (7/27) at 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours a new small gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Fri AM (7/23) with 50-55 kt west winds and seas building from 39 ft at 57S 161.5E aimed northeast. Fetch building in coverage and pushing northeast in the evening at 45 kts with seas 35 ft at 55.5S 176E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (7/24) southwest winds to be 40 kts tracking northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 55S 173W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the south with seas fading from 28 ft at 50S 166W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
There are suggestions of secondary fetch developing from the above gale over the Central South Pacific on Sun PM (7/25) producing 35 kt south winds and seas building. On Mon AM (7/26) 35-40 kts south winds to lift north building over the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific with seas building to 25 ft at 52.75S 139.75W aimed north-northeast. Fetch holding in the evening while lifting north with 25-26 ft seas at 47S 140W aimed north. Fetch fading Tues AM (7/27) from 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 43S 139W aimed north. Something to monitor.
Kelvin Wave Eruption Continues Weakly near Ecuador - Cooler Water West of There
Summary - 2 Kevin Waves were all but done erupting near the Galapagos with a 3rd pushing east behind them but rapidly fading. The forecast suggests east anomalies taking over much of the equatorial Pacific for a while, but then west anomalies filling the KWGA in Oct. Still a high pressure bias is forecast to control the KWGA this Fall. Blocking high pressure is starting to rebuild and is to hold through Winter 2021-2022.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/19) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/20) modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA with weak east anomalies over the equatorial Pacific to Ecuador. The forecast calls for east anomalies fading in coverage for the next 2 days then rebuilding to moderate strength on 7/23 near the dateline and tracking east from there out of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 7/27 with weak west anomalies developing while tracking east into the west KWGA reaching half way through the KWGA at the end of the model run.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/19) A building Active MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects the Active Pattern holding on day 5 fading and almost gone on day 10 of the model run and then gone on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the Active Phase holding steady and solid on days 5-15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the Maritime Continent today and is to track east to the West Pacific on day 15 fading to very weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase moving to the far West Pacific at day 15 of the model run at weak to modest strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/19) A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) was indicated over the far East Pacific with a moderate Active Phase (wet air) developing over the far West KWGA. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to push east moving into Central America on 7/24. The Active Phase is to be building over the KWGA on 7/24 and fairly cohesive moving to the East Pacific and then over Central America on 8/18. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be moving over the KWGA at the end of the model run on 8/28.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/19) This model depicts an Active MJO signal building over the west KWGA today with moderate east anomalies over the same area and modest east anomalies from the mid-KWGA eastward into Ecuador. The forecast indicates the Active MJO signal is to move through the KWGA through 8/7 with west anomalies in the KWGA during that window. East anomalies are to rebuilding in the core of the KWGA at modest status 8/2 holding through the end of the model run on 8/16.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/20 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today a weak Active Phase of the MJO was building over the West KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to progress east across the KWGA with weak west anomalies developing west to east over the KWGA until the Active Phase fades on 8/7. A short lived Inactive Phase is to set up 8/6-8/21 with east anomalies taking over the KWGA. A broader Active Phase is to develop while slowly pushing east 8/15-10/14 with west anomalies reaching east to about 170E (2/3rd of the way across the KWGA) eventually filling it after 9/22. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to follow starting 10/8 tracking east through the end of the model run on 10/16 but with west anomalies holding and filling the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the East Pacific (with one contour line) but a low pressure bias over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E but slowly retrograding west. The high pressure contour line shifted dramatically east to 130W on 6/30 and is to hold through 8/13 then back-build west to 170E and easing west to 150E at the end of the model run while building to 2 contour lines. The single contour low pressure bias is already starting to recede west migrating to 120E on 8/10 becoming recentered over the Maritime Continent like last winter. This suggest a return to some flavor of a La Nina pressure pattern by late August with east anomalies and high a pressure bias effectively over the dateline and points east of there. This forecast has been stable for over a month now suggesting it will actually happen.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/20) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was retrograding west to 174E. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 163W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing east into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +1 deg C were filling the equatorial Pacific from a depth of 125 meters upward building to +2 degs C from 105W and points east of there. This indicates a weak Kelvin Wave tracking east. And the +2 deg anomalies in the far East Pacific were indicative of a previous Kelvin Wave (actually 2) pushing into Ecuador and nearly gone. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/12 indicates much the same with the new Kelvin Wave pushing east to 140W and 2 previous Kelvin Waves pushing weakly and tenuously east from 140W into Central America. But a pocket of cool water was between them from 100W-120W near the surface. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/12) Sea heights were falling over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms mainly west of the dateline, and 2 small pockets of negative anomalies over the East equatorial Pacific at -5 cms between 90W-125W and 130W-145W on the equator. La Nina is gone but trying to make a weak return with no clear large scale warming occurring. A neutral pattern was established.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/19) The latest images depict warm water on the equator in pockets across the width of the Pacific with stronger warming along Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. 2 Kelvin Waves have been erupting in the East Pacific and are still doing so, but not as strongly as previous. And a pocket of cooling was developing in that flow between 100W-120W likely due to strong trades in that area causing upwelling. A area of weak warming was along Chile and Peru. A more cohesive pocket of warm water was along Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina transitioning to ENSO neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/19): 3 pockets of warming waters and 2 pockets of cooling waters were over the area from Ecuador to 120. And weak cooling was occurring west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (7/19) A distinct flow of warmer than normal water was on the equator tracking west from Ecuador to about 100W then fragmented west to a point south of Hawaii with secondary warming west of Central America and tertiary warming west of Peru and Chile. A pocket of cooling was holding on the equator between 100W to 130W. A clear cool outflow was still pushing from California southwest to the a point south of Hawaii. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/20) Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.122 after previously peaking at +0.213 on 6/17, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/20) Today temps were falling hard down to -+0.029. Temps peaked at +0.332 on 7/1, the highest in a year. They previously peaked at +0.224 on 6/15. Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps have been on a steadily increasing trend.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/20) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been rising since early Nov 2020 when they bottomed out at -1.25 degs, building to -0.01 degs in mid-June holding to mid-July. The forecast indicates a steady fall in temperatures from 7/15 forward dropping to -0.95 degs in mid-Oct. A slow but steady increase is forecast from there reaching -0.70 degs mid-Jan then starting a quicker rise to -0.05 degs in mid April 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temp falling only to -0.75 degs later in Oct into early Jan 2022.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.10 degs today, and are to fade slowly -0.30 degrees in Sept and stabilizing there into December, then rising to +0.10 in later Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting we are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (7/20): The daily index was still positive at +8.86 after peaking at +37.86 on 7/15. The Inactive Phase was solid. The 30 day average was rising steadily to +13.16 after falling to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year and beating the previous low on 6/14 of -2.08. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was steady at +5.74 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. As of May 2021 it was the most negative its been at -2.04 since Sept 2012. Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). It is more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table