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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, July 18, 2023 12:28 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 7/17 thru Sun 7/23
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

South Pacific Sleeps
Tropical Storm Calvin Poised To Hit Hawaii - Insipid Windswell for Central CA

Tuesday, July 18, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 9.8 secs from 162 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): This buoy is down. Using Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 5.3 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 6.0 secs from 63 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 10.5 secs from 200 degrees. Wind west at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 67.6 degs, 70.5 (Topanga 103), 67.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 72.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 70.0 (Del Mar 153), 69.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.8 ft @ 9.2 secs from 298 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.4 ft @ 8.8 secs from 273 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 199 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.0 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 9.9 secs from 209 degrees. Water temperature was 69.3 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 7.9 secs from 323 degrees. Wind west at 12-16 kts (46026). Water temp 51.1 (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.9 (San Francisco 46026), 57.0 (SF Bar 142), 61.3 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 55.9 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Tuesday (7/18) North and Central CA waves were thigh to waist high and soft coming from the northwest with warble intermixed and pretty messy. Protected breaks were thigh high and warbled and sloppy and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was knee high on the sets and clean and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to thigh high and clean and weak and foggy early. Central Orange County had sets up to waist high coming from the south and lined up with decent form but soft and inconsistent with northwest texture on it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high plus and clean and lined up with good form but soft and inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean with sideshore lump running through it. The South Shore had some thigh to waist high sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate northeasterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (7/18) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii to California other than locally generated windswell. And beyond no swell producing weather systems are forecast. The doldrums of summer continue.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/18) no swell of interest was in the water or being generated relative to Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Calvin was located 360 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii on Tues AM (7/18) with winds 40 kts tracking east-northeast. Calvin is expected to to continue on this course while slowly fading, passing just south of the southern tip of the Big Island in the early morning hours of Wed (7/19) then accelerating off to the east and fading, well southwest of Kauai by Thurs AM (7/20). Maybe some east windswell to result for east facing shore of mainly Hawaii and Maui.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed AM (7/19) northwest winds hold at 20-25 kts for North CA with northwest winds 15 kts down over Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to fade to 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading.
  • Thurs AM (7/20) the core of the northwest fetch falls south with northwest winds 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds continue at 20+ kts for North Ca and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Minimal windswell in place.
  • Fri AM (7/21) northwest winds build some for North CA at 25 kts and and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Windswell building some.
  • Sat AM (7/22) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts down to Big Sur early and 10 kts south of there. More of the same in the afternoon.
  • Sun AM (7/23) no change forecast. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding.
  • Mon AM (7/24) northwest fetch fades in coverage at 20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest fetch fades more in coverage and limited to just along the North CA coast at 15-20 kts and 15 kts for Central CA and very shallow. Minimal short period wind chop expected.
  • Tues AM (7/25) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over a shallow area along North and Central CA early offering little to no support for windswell production. The Inactive Phase of the MJO paired with the La Nina hangover a re certainly having a negative effect.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road intersection: 14,000+ ft steady from here forward. Summer has arrived in the mountains (starting 7/1). Solid snow line about 9,000 ft on northwest facing aspects. Solid snowmelt continuing.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).


South Pacific

On Tuesday (7/18) the jetstream was split with the northern branch dominating producing two pockets of 150 kt winds on the 30S latitude line and the influential southern branch ridging weakly south over the Ross Ice Shelf offering no support for gale development over the entirety of the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours starting Wed (7/19) more wind energy is forecast pushing southeast under New Zealand reinforcing the ridge over the South Pacific reaching the Southeast Pacific on Fri (7/21). Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (7/22) the ridge is to remain in control of the southern reaches of the South Pacific tracking over Antarctic Ice and building some on Mon (7/24) and holding through the end of the model run on Tues (7/25) offering no support for gale development. Sure looks like the Inactive Phase of the MJO is having a negative effect on the storm pump.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (7/18) no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


El Nino Stalled - Inactive MJO In-Place
Kelvin Wave #4 Is Erupting - Kelvin Wave #5 Developing in the West - Active MJO #6 Done Likely Producing Another Kelvin Wave
NINO3.4 In El Nino Territory and Holding Steady in Coverage

1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with a 2nd in Jan-Feb and a 3rd and 4th in March-April and a 5th developing now. And Westerly Winds from MJO #6 likely have produced another Kelvin Wave. But the MJO has stalled now. Sea Surface Temperatures are stable but not warming or expanding. And the SOI is giving up ground. The MJO machine has faltered and the atmosphere is showing no signs of becoming coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That basically continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

Summer 2023 = 3.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 3 Active MJO's produced 3 Kelvin Waves with the 3rd in that series poised to start erupting off Ecuador now (May 2023). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias on the dateline and forecast to nearly fill the Pacific during June. We are in a state of transition from ENSO neutral to El Nino during the summer of 2023. As a result we will be moving from a period of reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the early part of Summer towards a period of enhanced storm production starting Late July and beyond, getting fairly intense come Fall. This should result in a slightly below normal level of swells, with swells being below normal duration and period over early Summer. But by late July 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as El Nino starts getting a solid footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after late July 2023. The swell pattern will be normal to somewhat below normal before July and above normal after July 23. And By Sept, the El Nino footprint should be solid. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early and based mostly on the CFS model and it's projection of a building ENSO footprint getting solid by Sept.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/17) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak to modest west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/18) modest to moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate west anomalies are to continue filling the KWGA from the west to about 170E through 7/20, then fading some and generally weak but still westerly till 7/28. After that east anomalies are forecast at weak to modest strength filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/3. This is certainly a downgrade from earlier projections.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/17) A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO pattern in control holding through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but turning modestly active on day 10 of the model run and solidly Active over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run. Perhaps the MJO is to wake up.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/18) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the Central Maritime Continent and is to ease east to the West Pacific 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/18) A strong Active (wet) pattern over the far West Pacific today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) continuing over the KWGA through 7/28 then fading while pushing east of the KWGA and into Ecuador on 8/12 and weak. A new Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the the KWGA on 8/7 filling it through 8/22 then fading while moving over the East Pacific the last day of the model run on 8/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/17)
Today a neutral MJO was over the KWGA but with west anomalies modestly filling it. The forecast indicates west anomalies continuing over the KWGA building to strong status 7/21-7/30, then fading some but still solid at moderate status through 8/6, then fading to weak status and holding over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/14. The Active Phase of the MJO is to move over the KWGA 7/31- 8/6.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(7/18) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was dissipating on the dateline but with weak west anomalies over the KWGA. The Active Phase is developing in the West KWGA with west anomalies building. The forecast has the Active Phase filling the KWGA on 7/21 and holding through 9/4 with west anomalies solid 7/20-8/8 and moderate 9/10 centered on the dateline. A weak Inactive MJO is to develop on 9/4 holding through 9/22 but with modest west anomalies holding, A weak Active Phase is forecast 9/4 holding through the end of the model run on 10/15 with west anomalies holding at moderate strength. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) suggests cloud activity has taken over the KWGA on 7/6 and is holding today and forecast to build even more solid on 7/28 and beyond. The low pass filter indicates the high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 115W with its western perimeter at 122W today and well east of the KWGA and moving east to 120W in Aug and tracking slowly east from there and gone by Oct 7. A broad low pressure bias is established over the West KWGA centered at 170E with 3 contour lines and it's leading edge well east of the dateline at 145W today (it started pushing east on 2/15). The 3rd contour line is to build steadily from here forward. The primarily contours leading edge is to be locked at 135W then moving to 122W at the end of the model run with it's center easing east to 175E. Today is to start of a major positive change in the development of El Nino. It appears a strong El Nino is developing not a moderate one.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/18) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was present and easing east to 178W (previously 180W) and backbuilding. The 29 degree isotherm was building east to 161W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 135W (previously 120W). The 26 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was stable at 65 m down in the far East. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C started at 154W (unchanged) pushing east with +3-7 degs anomalies over the East Pacific starting at 142W. +6 degree anomalies were from 110W into Ecuador. The warm pool is discharging to the surface and no new warm water other than the base warm state at +1 degs were in the West Pacific, meaning no new Kelvin Wave were in-flight. There's about 2 months of warm water backed up off the Ecuadorian Coast today. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/12 indicates a huge very warm stream of +1-2 degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific and building while tracking east and then upwards from there over the far East Pacific with +4-5 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #3 & #4 erupting from 120W into Ecuador. A pocket of warmer water at +1 degs C started at 145E and points east of there. Another pocket of warming waters were in the West Pacific at 120E at +2 degs (Kelvin Wave #6). In other words, this image suggests there more warm water flowing east from the Maritime Continent than what the TAO array suggests but no defined clear Kelvin Wave was evident. More just a very warm base state. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/12) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial West Pacific at +0-5 cms from 120E to 180W with a small break then a broad area of 0-5 cm anomalies starting at 170W with +10-15 cm pocket from 107W east into Ecuador. The small break suggests no major reservoir of warm water in the West Pacific moving east. Positive anomalies extending north into Central America and south to Chile. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage at +1.00-2.00 degs over the East Pacific from 133W and east of there. But a steady decline in temps has occurred west of there in the 0-0.5 degs range from 135E to 165W. The warm water flow has backed off with nothing to force more warm water east (i.e. no Active MJOs occurring). Otherwise there's been no change since mid March, a steady flow of warm water pushing east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/17) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador (the strongest so far this event) and building in strength and coverage out to 105W if not 115W with lesser but still serious heat extending west to 135W. Lesser heat extended west to the dateline and beyond. Heat also extends north up Mexico reaching the tip of Baja and south down into south Chile. There is a very clear El Nino signal. The classic El Nino triangle was developing. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator but remnants are still quite evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and a Springtime upwelling pattern still in control there and likely being reinforced. La Nina is not budging atmospherically over the Pacific. We need the atmosphere to couple with the ocean.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/17): A neutral pattern was in control of the equatorial Pacific. That said, pockets of warming were on the equator from the Galapagos to 125W and again from 150W to 155E. But it's not surprising there's no clear signal of strong warming along Ecuador because temps are already so warm they can't get any hotter. A neutral trend was along the coasts of Chile and Peru. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool is stable if not inching forward. A warming trend had been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (7/17) Warmer than normal waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru, Ecuador and north up to Mexico with strong warming in many pockets along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador out to 105W. And the classic El Nino tongue of more intense warming is building considerably over the equator west to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. Everything is now looking like El Nino. But the La NIna enhanced cool pool off California persists unfazed. Very perplexing. It's a clear sign of the negative PDO and it is not budging.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/18) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are up some at +3.230 after hovering near +2.906 (starting 7/3) rising from +2.451 after peaking at +2.7926 on 6/13 and have been up in the +2.0 to +3.0 degs range since 4/1 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13). Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/18) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today temps are rising at +0.985 after rising slightly at +0.882 (7/9) after being steady at +0.794 4-5 days and that after being steady at +0.895 (3 days near 6/25) after being in the +0.712 range the previous 9 days after previously rising to +0.975 on 6/9. We are now 31 days into a trend of being above the El Nino threshold (for the 2nd time). Temps reached the El Nino threshold for the first time on 5/17 at +0.507 then quickly fell over the next 10 days down to +0.378 (5/26). Previous peaks of +0.318 on 4/30 besting the previous peak at +0.199 on 4/21. Temps have been steadily increasing hitting 0.0 on 4/12 and were then more or less steady the previous 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. They had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rise to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June.
Forecast (7/18) - Temps are above in the El Nino range at +1.00 degs today and are to slowly rise to +1.25 degs in mid-Aug then start rising quickly, to +2.20 degs in Nov and solidly in El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast holding at 1.0 degs into mid-Aug then steadily rising to +1.60 degs in Oct and +1.70 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are building into El Nino through the Summer. But max temps are down from previous runs.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 16, 2023 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.120 degs today and it's the 4th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +1.298 in July and up to +1.466 degrees in Oct then fading from there. The dynamic model suggest temps peaking at +1.761 in Oct. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models but 3 of 17 are higher still.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/18) the Daily Index was negative at -13.36 and has been negative the last 5 days, but positive the previous 21 days. It had been negative 11 days prior to that and positive 5 days previous to that then negative for 27 days previous ending 6/6 with a peak down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12. Previously readings were toggling between +10 and -10 for 13 days, but negative the 15 days previous to that, positive the 6 days prior to that after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at +3.06 after crossing the neutral point on 7/3. It previously fell to -19.64 on 6/5 had been falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at -5.77 and turned negative the first time in years on 5/12. A recent max low was -7.57 on 6/6. It previously peaked at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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