Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.7 secs from 194 degrees. Water temp 79.2 (Barbers Pt), 79.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.7 secs from 36 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 9.7 secs from 205 degrees. Wind north 0-2 kts. Water temperature 65.3 degs, 57.0 (Harvest 071), 67.3 (Topanga 103), 67.1 (Long Beach 215), 71.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 70.9 (Del Mar 153), 69.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.5 ft @ 9.7 secs from 319 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.7 ft @ 9.4 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 15.9 secs from 205 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.9 secs from 193 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.6 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 18.9 secs from 190 degrees. Water temperature 70.5 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.3 ft @ 9.9 secs from 328 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), S 6-8 kts San Francisco (46026), S 8-9 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.0 (San Francisco 46026), 57.6 (SF Bar 142), 54.7 (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 55.9 (Monterey Bay 46092) and NA (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (7/12) in North and Central CA surf was thigh to maybe waist high and mushed and weak and lightly warbled from southwest wind. Protected breaks were thigh high and weakly lined up and heavily textured from southwest wind. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the sets and weakly lined up but short and textured mid-day. In Ventura County waves were knee to thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft and clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up and soft and almost warbled from modest west wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high and weakly lined up and mushed and lightly warbled from west wind. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and somewhat lined up and mushed and weak and lightly warbled. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at waist thigh and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (7/12) Hawaii and california were getting no defined swell of interest. A small gale developed on the eastern edge of the CA swell window Fri-Sat (7/5) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell from it is propagating northeast expected to arrive in CA on Sun (7/13) but tiny is the operative word. . Another gale developed Mon-Tues (7/8) just off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf tracking northeast producing 29-31 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is propagating northeast towards HI and CA. A small gale developed over the Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (7/10) with 26-28 ft seas aimed briefly northeast. But after that things are to go quiet. Summer has arrived.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/12) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast or being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (7/13) northwest winds to be 25 kts off North Cape Mendocino and south winds 5 kts south of Pt Arena and south 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be limited to North Cape Mendocino at 25-30 kts but west winds 5 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA. Windswell fading some.
Mon AM (7/14) the gradient holds limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 30-35 kts and northwest winds 5 kts from Pt Arena southward. No real change in the afternoon. Northwest windswell building some.
Tues AM (7/15) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino but light west 5 kts or less from Pt Arena southward. In the afternoon northwest winds fade to 20 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts from Pt Arena to the Golden Gate and northwest 5 kts southward to Pt Conception. Minimal limited windswell fading.
Wed AM (7/16) northwest winds to be 20 kts limited to off Cape Mendocino early and northwest 5+ kts for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (7/17) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (7/18) no change is forecast early winds northeast winds 5-10 kts early. No change in the afternoon but northwest winds to 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast.
Sat AM (7/19) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North Ca early and 10 kts for Central CA but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds start building at 15 kts for North and Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 60-70 degs Sat (7/12) remaining effectively unchanged through the end of the model run on Mon (7/21).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (7/12) the jet was ridging firmly south of New Zealand with winds to 130 kts tracking over the Ross Ice Shelf then lifting northeast over the far Southeast Pacific with winds 120 kts forming a trough and offering limited support for gale development over the far Southeast Pacific. Over the next 72 hours generally more of the same is forecast but with the jet over the Ross Ice Shelf pushing south into Antarctica and the trough in the east strengthening being fed by 140 kts winds late Sun (7/13) and just barely in the Southern CA swell window offering some support for gale formation then weakening and moving mostly east of the Southern CA swell window early Tues (7/15). Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (7/16) the jet is to be very weak and heavily split over the bulk of the South Pacific with the southern branch tracking east over Antarctica offering no support for gale development. But on Fri (7/18) a trough is again forecast developing in the deep and far Southeast Pacific being fed by 130 kt southwest winds for 24 hours forming a trough maybe supporting of gale development. But it is to quickly collapse offering nothing beyond while the jet over the Southwest and South Central Pacific is to be southward displaced over Antarctica offering nothing.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/12) swell was was poised for California originating from a small gale that developed previously in the Southeast Pacific (see Tiny Flat Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a broader gale that developed southeast of New Zealand is to be propagating northeast (see South Central Pacific Gale below).

And a tiny gale developed Wed AM (7/9) over the deep Southeast Pacific just off Antarctic Ice with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts lifting northeast and seas 28 ft at 52.5S 130.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/10) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 49.5S 122W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas dissipate from there and well east of the Southern CA swell window targeting only Patagonia. Very limited small swell is possible for CA and point south of there but whatever swell does arrive will be buried by the swell arriving at the same time from the South Central Pacific Gale (details below).

On Mon PM (7/14) a gale is forecast developing in the deep far Southeast Pacific with 35-40 kts south winds and seas building from 23 ft at 53S 124.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/15) 40 kts south winds are to persist unmoving with seas 25-26 ft at 55.5S 120.5W aimed north. In the evening south winds to be 35+ kts lifting north-northeast with seas 26-27 ft at 55S 119.75W aimed north-northeast. On Wed AM fetch is to be reaching northeast and well east of the Southern CA swell window. Something to monitor.

Tiny Far Southeast Pacific Gale
On Fri PM (7/4) a gale started developing over the Southeast Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 58.25S 132W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (7/5) southwest winds held at 40-45 kts aimed well north with seas 32 ft at 55.75S 124.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 35 kts and moving east of the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 27 ft at 52S 118.25W aimed northeast.

Southern CA: Swell arrival on Sun (7/13) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks Mon (7/14) at maybe 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/16) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Sun (7/13) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaks Mon (7/14) at maybe 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/15) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/16) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

South Central Pacific Gale
On Sun PM (7/6) a gale started developing southeast of New Zealand with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 60.5S 170W and clear of the Ross Ice Anomaly. On Mon AM (7/7) southwest winds were lifting northeast at 40 kts covering a solid area with seas 29 ft at 59S 161W and dispersing the remnants of the Ice Anomaly. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area over the Southeast Pacific with a core to 45 kts and seas 31 ft at 57S 154.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (7/8) the gale was diffuse over the far Southeast Pacific with a new core at 40 kts from the southwest and seas 29 ft at 51.5S 146W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas faded after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/15) building to 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (1.5 ft) Swell building Wed (7/16) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (7/17) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/18) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (7/16) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (7/17) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/18) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. But perhaps there's low odds of a gale again forming over the far Southeast Pacific on Fri (7/18) with 26 ft seas aimed northeast.

La Nina is Gone - Its Hangover Remains
A Very Unenergetic Pattern Is In Control
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. Then 6 upwelling Cold Water Kelvin Waves traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 into March 2025 erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific setting up a Modoki La Nina. But then in April 2025 weakly warm water surged east an filled the Equatorial West Pacific and was building into the East Equatorial Pacific today ushering in ENSO Neutral Conditions. But the atmosphere was still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/11) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the far East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/12) Today modest to moderate west anomalies were reaching east to 150E filling 50% of the KWGA and moderate to strong east anomalies were east of there. This pattern is to basically hold with minor fluctuation through the end of the model run on 7/28 with the split point between the west and east anomalies holding. But west anomalies are to be building to moderate status over the entrance to the West Pacific 7/20 and holding through the end of the model run.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/11) Currently a weak Active MJO (wet air) was nearly filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active Phase building on day 5 to moderate status filling the KWGA holding on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the Active Phase (wet air) fading some on day 5, then building on day 10 reaching very strong status on day 15 of the model run and filling the KWGA. This along with the GFS wind forecast above suggests a real change is coming.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/12) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the Central Maritime Continent today. The statistic model has it tracking to the East Maritime Continent over the next 15 days and generally weak 2 weeks out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase starting to build over the East Maritime Continent 7 days out reaching moderate status and moving to the West Pacific 15 days out at moderate strength 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/12) This model depicts a weak to modest Active Phase (wet air) stationary over the Central Maritime Continent. The forecast has it moving into the West KWGA 7/17 then tracking slowly east over the KWGA through 8/1. After that a weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 8/6 filling it through the last day of the model run on 8/21 while tracking east. But this model been teasing eastward movement of the Active Phase for 2 months now with none of that actually occurring. The MJO appears to be stuck over the Maritime Continent and very weak.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/11) Today moderate west anomalies were reaching east to 150E with moderate east anomalies east of there. West anomalies are to backtrack starting 7/16 reaching 140E a few days later and holding there through 7/15 with east anomalies at modest status mostly filling the KWGA. West anomalies are to then ease east reaching 150E again on 7/29 holding at that point through the end of the model run on 8/8 with modest east anomalies east of there. No meaningful MJO contours are projected over the Pacific with a sold Active MJO contour over the Maritime Continent starting today through 6/3 never reaching the Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/12) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a single active contour and weak west anomalies were filling the KWGA west of 150E and modest east anomalies east of there. This pattern is to hold through 7/14 when the active contour tracks east of the dateline but west anomalies are to hold if not building west of the dateline 7/14 through 7/28. A weak single Inactive contour is to set up 7/28 in the west reaching the dateline 8/8 holding through 8/24 but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. On 8/13 a legit Active Phase develops over the West KWGA building with 4-5 contours filling the KWGA and holding in some capacity through the end of the model run on 10/9 with west anomalies building to modest status west of the dateline 8/12-9/5. East anomalies are to hold east of the KWGA with the dividing line between east and west anomalies 165E starting from early August onwards. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start slowly easing east into the West Pacific now - 7/11 and then moving more aggressively east 8/13 reaching 150E at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 1 contour. That contour is already easing east and is forecast collapsing east to the dateline 7/14 (to 150W) returning to 170E late-Aug and holding there beyond. This suggests La Nina is to be fading and easing east but still present over the dateline with low pressure over the West Pacific beyond.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (7/12) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 175W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 160W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 5 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 180m and running east continuous across the equatorial thermocline building to +2 degs in the East Pacific down 78m. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/7 indicates neutral to slightly warm anomalies were filling the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to 95W in the East Pacific on the thermocline 100-150 meters down reaching east the whole way across the Pacific and erupting in pockets east of the Galapagos. And very warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific offering more potential beyond. And weak warm anomalies were filling the deep East Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/7) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral 2 degrees north and south of the equator and weakly positive in the east and somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 170E. Negative anomalies at up to -10 to 15 cms were 5 degrees north of the equator at 160W and 130W and -20 cms 7 degrees south of the equator at 130W. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/2) the cool pool in the east dissipated on 4/12. Warm anomalies were filling the West and Central Pacific building in a wave pushing east on the equator reaching to 95W with neutral anomalies east of there to Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated nor have been since 4/20. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/8) The latest images depict weakly warming water temps filling the entire Equatorial Pacific with 3 warmer pockets west of the Galapagos. Warm anomalies extended up to 15 degrees north and south of the equator too. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 15N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks like ENSO Neutral. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were over the West Pacific with cooler waters from the 170E and points east of there.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/11): Temps were cooling in 2 pockets at 90W and 110W and warming 95W and 105W but were otherwise continued to be neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific, though some warming and cooling pockets were present in a thin stream 80W-120W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/12) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps falling hard dropping to -0.080 after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/12) Today's temps were falling at -0.166 after being steady at -0.065 s7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were steady at 0.0 July 2. Previously temps were +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.53 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May.
Forecast (7/9) - Temps to hold at 0.00 degs into late July then are to start falling August reaching down to -0.45 degs in Nov, then rising back to neutral in Jan 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same but with temp falling to only -0.35 degs. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern biased cool holding through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to -0.067. Temps to slowly fall to -0.266 in Nov, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.147 NDJ then rising some to +0.140 at the end of the model run on FMA. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.363 NDJ rising to -0.307 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/11) the Daily Index was positive at +16.68 and positive 4 days prior, negative the previous 3 days, then generally positive the previous 15 days, negative 6 days before that, toggling around neutral 5/30-6/13, solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days) previous, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +1.18 but has been generally falling the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +1.10 and on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was falling in June (2025) at -2.51, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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