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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, July 10, 2022 12:29 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.2 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/4 thru Sun 7/10

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

1st New Zealand Swell Arriving in HI
2nd Swell Building Behind - 3rd Gale Developing

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, July 10, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 8.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.7 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 6.4 secs from 33 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 15.1 secs from 198 degrees. Wind southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 67.8 degs, 68.9 (Topanga 103), 59.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 67.6 (Del Mar 153), 67.8 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.1 ft @ 6.6 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 6.0 secs from 268 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.6 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.8 secs from 191 degrees. Water temp 70.2 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 6.3 secs from 293 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 12-14 kts. Water temp 52.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.9 (Pt Reyes 46013), 52.9 (46026), 58.3 (SF Bar 142), 61.2 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 57.4 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (7/10) North and Central CA had set waves at waist to maybe near chest high and warbled and sloppy and mushed with south wind but not white capped. Protected breaks were up to waist high and fairly clean early and soft and somewhat lined up. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to maybe waist high and clean but soft and weak with fog on it early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and mushed with no wind and some texture on it. Central Orange County had occasional sets at maybe waist high and weak and soft but somewhat lined up and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a few sets approaching head high on the peak and clean and lined up early. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and soft and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was thigh high and textured from northeast wind. The South Shore was small with set at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and fairly clean but inconsistent. The East Shore had east windswell at waist to chest high and nearly chopped from from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (7/10) California was getting no swell of interest but Hawaii was starting to see signs of swell that was generated under New Zealand on Sun-Tues (7/5) from a gale that produced up to 35 ft seas aimed east over a modest sized area. And another gale developed Tues-Thurs (7/7) with 28-32 ft seas aimed east-northeast over a decent sized area. Some swell is likely to result for California from both these too. And another gale is developing in the Central South Pacific Sun-Tues (7/12) with up to 44 ft seas forecast aimed well northeast. So there's something to look forward to.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/10) no swell of interest was in the water and no swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
N
o tropical weather systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon (7/12) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to set up early with 20-25 kts northwest winds over and off Cape Mendocino and 10 kt wind south of Pt Arena continuing down into Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient shifts north with 20-25 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts from Pt Arena southward early. Windswell fading some.
  • Tues (7/13) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts just off Cape Mendocino early and 5 kt northwest winds south of there over the remainder of North CA and all of Central CA if not south winds at 5 kts from Pt Reyes southward. In the afternoon the northwest winds are to move over all of Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena but with the southerly flow holding south of there. Windswell some fading.
  • Wed (7/14) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA down to just north of Bodega Bay and northwest 5-10 kts from Pt Reyes southward. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts from Pt Reyes northward and northwest 10-15 kts for all of Central CA. Limited windswell production possible.
  • Thurs (7/15) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North and Central CA. Small junky windswell expected.
  • Fri (7/16) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Junky windswell forecast.
  • Sat (7/17) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA early and 20-25 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no real change is expected. Junky windswell is forecast.
  • Sun (7/18) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Junky windswell continues.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for the Tioga Pass Road is 14,000+ ft today and unchanged for the foreseeable future. Were in a full summertime pattern now.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (7/10) the influential southern branch of the jet was pushing north over the Central South Pacific at 130 kts bumping into the northern branch of the jet forming a well defined trough offering good support for gale development. East of there the jet was ridging hard south pushing to 68S offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to slowly push east into Tues (7/12) holding together reasonably well offering good support for gale development then starting to fade on Wed (7/13). Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (7/14) the trough is to be gone over the Southeast Pacific with a solid ridge building under New Zealand pushing south over the Ross Ice Shelf and then into Antarctica proper on Sat (7/16) offering no support for gale development. But by Sun (7/17) another small trough is to start building well south of New Zealand being fed by 140 kts winds pushing northeast perhaps offering some support for gale development long term.


Surface Analysis
Swell is tracking northeast starting to impact Hawaii and also bound for California originating from a gale that was under New Zealand (see 1st New Zealand Gale below). And another gale developed under New Zealand with swell from it propagating northeast too (see 2nd New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours the focus is to be on another gale that was developing in the Central South Pacific on Sat PM (7/9) with 50 kt south winds over a building area imbedded in a broader area of 40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 29 ft at 52S 175W aimed north. On Sun AM (7/10) winds were building over a solid area at 50-55 kts from the south with seas building from 40 ft at 55.5S 163.75W aimed northeast and 38 ft seas at 51.5S 165W. Fetch is to lift northeast in the evening at 45+ kts over a solid area with seas to 44 ft at 51.75S 157.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/11) a broad fetch of 40-45 kt south winds is forecast with seas 42 ft at 51.75S 157.75W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed north with seas 36 ft at 49.75S 154W aimed northeast. The gale is to be fading Tues AM (7/12) with southwest winds 35 kts over a solid area aimed northeast and seas fading from 33 ft at 47S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas to rapidly dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

 

1st New Zealand Gale
On Sun AM (7/3) a gale developed tracking east from under New Zealand with 40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 57.5S 165E aimed east. In the evening west-southwest fetch continued at 35-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 53.25S 165.5E aimed east. On Mon AM fetch was building at 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas up to 36 ft at 54.25S 178.75E aimed east-northeast. Fetch continued east in the evening at 45-50 kts from the southwest over a tiny area with seas 34 ft at 54S 166.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to fade Tues AM (7/5) from 40 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 33 ft at 55.5S 155W aimed east-northeast. The gale to dissipate quickly from there. Small swell to result for Hawaii and California.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (7/10) building to 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs late (1.5 ft). On Mon (7/11) swell is to build to 1.6 ft @ 17- 18 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (7/12) from 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early and being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 196 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/13) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (7/14) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/15) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) and possibly being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 211-212 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/13) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (7/14) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (7/15) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) and possibly being overrun by another swell behind. Swell Direction: 210-211 degrees

 

2nd New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (7/4) a gale started developing just southwest of New Zealand with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 51.5S 162.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (7/5) fetch was building to 45 kts embedded in a larger area of 40+ kt southwest winds with seas building to 32 ft at 52S 178E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was falling south hard at 45-50 kts with a secondary fetch of 40 kt southwest winds building over a solid area just west of it producing 30 ft seas at 56S 174E and 34 ft seas at 57.5S 173.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (7/6) the 2 fetch areas consolidated resulting in a single fetch of southwest winds at 40 kts southeast of New Zealand with seas 34 ft at 52.5S 175.25W aimed northeast. In the evening a solid fetch of 35-40 kts southwest winds were present with seas 32 ft at 56.25S 170W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (7/7) southwest winds are to be fading from 35 kts over a large area aimed northeast with seas fading from 31 ft at 54.25S 168.5W. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 54.25S 158.5W aimed northeast. This system is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (7/12) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (7/13) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/14) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/15) 1.3 ft @ 14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arriving on Fri (7/15) while building and intermixing with previous swell to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (7/16) at 2.4 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/17) from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (7/18) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft) with possibly new swell overriding it. Swell Direction: 204-210 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arriving on Fri (7/15) while building and intermixing with previous swell to 2.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (7/16) at 2.5 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/17) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (7/18) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/19) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft) with possibly new swell building underneath. Swell Direction: 202-210 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours on Sun AM (7/17) the models are hinting at a new gale developing east of Southern New Zealand with 45 kt southwest winds over a small area with seas building from 32 ft at 50.75S 157.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Large Kelvin Wave Starting to Erupt Near Galapagos
Cool Water Losing Coverage -
Models Suggesting Another La Nina Surge in Fall
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading fast. A massive pool of warm water is building subsurface pushing well east. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. This is a lagging indicator. La Nina conditions are projected building in Nino3.4 slightly in Fall then fading in Winter. But overall cool water volume over the entire equatorial Pacific is to be fading steadily from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/10) Strong east anomalies were over the KWGA centered on the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies holding at strong status and solid in coverage centered on the dateline and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/17.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/9) A weak Active MJO signal was indicated today almost filling the the KWGA. The statistical model indicates the Active signal slowly decaying and gone on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase fading and limited only to the far West KWGA on day 5 of the model run holding unchanged through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(7/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent and is to remain stationary while slowly weakening over the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggest the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/5) No Update - The Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was pushing over Ecuador today with a modest Active signal developing over the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) gone on 7/9 with a modest Active Phase tracking east over the KWGA then moving to the Central Pacific and into Central America on 8/3. A solid Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building moving into the KWGA on 8/8 and almost filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 8/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/9) A solid Inactive MJO Phase was mostly east of the KWGA today but with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. East anomalies are to hold unchanged through the end of the model run on 8/6 even while the Active Phase of the MJO develops over the East KWGA on 7/18 and easing east from there and out of the KWGA by 7/30 . It is to produce west anomalies moving over the West KWGA to 150E 7/18-7/24. But for the most part east anomalies are to prevail.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(7/7 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive Phase was all but gone exiting east from the KWGA with east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts a weak Active Phase developing over the far West KWGA today and pushing east over the dateline through 8/4 with westerly anomalies holding at 140E through 7/23 and moving no further east. Another weak Active Phase of the MJO is to develop starting 8/2 pushing through the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/7 but with west anomalies making it to 140E and no further filling 40% of the KWGA and east anomalies solid from 160E and points east of there. This is not good. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 165E today. A second contour is to redevelop on 7/18 with the western edge of the high pressure bias retrograding west to 150E at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 140E filling 40% of the KWGA but is forecast retrograding to 130E at the end of the model run. A second contour line is to appear on 8/3. Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31. But east anomalies have now recentered themselves at 150W (previously on the dateline) but are to continue to have some solid influence over the KWGA for the foreseeable future.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was at 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 179E from 177W. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 123W. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge at 170W with +1 deg anomalies pushing in a stream east from there connecting to a pocket of +3 deg anomalies in the East Pacific off Ecuador starting at 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/2 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 100W with a finger to 85W and poised to reach the surface if not breaching it already from 110W to 120W. A residual pocket of cool anomalies were at 90W but getting overrun by the warm water. A massive Kelvin Wave is slowly easing east with it's large leading edge at 100W. It appears warm water is now building over the vast majority of the equatorial West Pacific. One could guess that this is La Ninas last stand. Only previously existing La Nina momentum in the atmosphere is holding it at bay. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/2) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. Multiple pockets of positive anomalies were over and north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 100W along the 1-5N latitude line. No negative anomalies were over the Galapagos anymore. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -0.5 degs limited between Ecuador and 88W and rapidly collapsing. And the Kelvin Wave was easing east to 100W and building some. It looks like a slow motion bulldozer of warm water is building pushing east and squeezing cool water off Ecuador to the surface. The proverbial dam will eventually break.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/9) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. But an area of warm water was building nearly continuous on the equator from Ecuador west to 150W, the eruption of the current Kelvin Wave. An imbedded pocket of previously strong cold water was fully discharged along the coast of Peru and indistinguishable from background cool waters. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (15 deg N) extending off mainland Mexico to 120W. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/9): A pocket of warming was on the equator at 90W and 105W. A pocket of cooling water was at 100W and 105W. No solid trend was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (7/9) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were building on the equator in the east aligned in a thin but broadening stream from Ecuador to 150W. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning with warm water from a Kelvin Wave starting to erupt over the East equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/10) Today's temps were falling some at -1.354 after rising slightly to -1.189 (7/7) and -1.534 (7/5) and had been more or less steady at -1.5 degs since 6/12. Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after previously being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/7) Today's temps were more or less steady at -0.300 today after peaking at -0.275 on 7/5 and have been on an upward trend since 5/15 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs.
Forecast (7/9) - T
emps are to hold at about -0.75 degs through mid-Sept, then starting a steady decline falling to -1.00 in mid-Nov, then making a quick rise above the La Nina threshold in Jan and up to +0.25 degs in March. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.55 degs mid-July holding into mid-Sept then falling to -0.80 degs mid-Nov, before rising back above La Nina threshold in mid-Dec and rising from there forward to +0.05 degs in March. According to this version of the model we will be try to move out of La Nina in July and August, only to fall back into it in the Fall before finally rising out of it in Jan 2023. That said - the surface temp coverage model suggest a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) from here forward and the cool-down limited to the equator and only weakly. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to be weakening the whole time from here forward.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.642 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.582 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.692 in November before rising to -0.574 in Dec and -0.362 degs in Jan and -0.162 in Feb. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (7/10) the daily index was positive at +9.23 with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was fading some at +14.85 today after peaking at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling some at +16.94 today after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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